AKAM

[Melf Elf]

AKAM (Akamai Technologies) broke out of an Ascending Triangle on May 26.  There were 4 hits to the top of the top of the pattern, which you can eyeball on this chart. (Connect the highs of December 30, 2004...February 1, 2005...April 14, 2005....April 25, 2005...it's a flat line)

AKAM has pulled back to the breakout.  The Moving Average on this chart is the 200 day.  The 50DMA made a bullish cross above it yesterday. 

AKAM  is an internet/tech bubble turn around story.  It fell from a high of $345.50 at the end of 2000, to a low of $0.56 in 2002.    

But, this year, it's expected to be in the black 

2004 Earnings: -$0.07 (a loss)
2005 Estimated Earnings: $0.46
2006 Estimated Earnings: $0.63

It's currently $13.21 BID...$13.23 ASK, down $0.16 on the day.


http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1120154501515?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:AKAM&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=200&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

[Melf Elf]

I bought AKAM here at $13.14. My stop for now is a CLOSE below $12.59 (risk of 4.2%), but I intend to raise that stop very quickly, closer to the Moving Averages near $12.90

[Melf Elf]

AKAM held up okay in the interest rate hike downdraft yesterday afternoon.  It closed at 13.13, down only a penny from my entry.  I'd like to see it hold at/above the 200 DMA on a closing basis.   I'd like a rally even better 

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1120154501515?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:AKAM&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=200&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

[Melf Elf]

I bought AKAM here at $13.14. My stop for now is a CLOSE below $12.59 (risk of 4.2%), but I intend to raise that stop very quickly, closer to the Moving Averages near $12.90

This morning, AKAM tested its 50DMA (see chart below), which recently made a bullish cross above the 200DMA.   That was successful, and the pullback to the top of the Ascending Triangle re-test) is going well. 

I'm long from 13.14. AKAM currentily is 13.24 ASK...13.25 BID.  I'll hold it, as long as my new stop doesn't get busted at today's close.   

I'm moving my stop way up from 12.59 to a CLOSE below this morning's low of 13.02.  Risk is a loss of  is 1%.  The Ascending Triangle target: 15.58 is IN PLAY, as long as AKAM remains above the triangle, which it is.

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1120244304799?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:AKAM&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=50&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

[Adam]

this thing has been in a trading range for a very long time I don't know what the actual LT resistance is but this one could be huge if it goes.

[Melf Elf]

this thing has been in a trading range for a very long time I don't know what the actual LT resistance is but this one could be huge if it goes.

Unfortunately, Adam, after having crashed 99.8% from $345.50 to $0.56, this one, like many others from the Bubble Era, has alot of long-term resistance.  However, the farther away in time resistance is, the less daunting it becomes. 

More immediately, AKAM has resistance from 2004 in the $11-$18 range, so we're right at the lower end of that range, currently at $13.16.  The first half of 2005 has been spent forming this Ascending Triangle, the top of which we're now testing (see chart below).  I like to see a decent base/pattern like this established on a chart, prior to attacking overhead resistance.

If AKAM can hold here, or slightly below here, it has a good chance of making the pattern target, and can go higher if it continues to build bullish patterns like ASTM did on its recent 74% move up.

After a bullish cross of the 50 and 200DMAs on Wednesday, AKAM is sitting on top of its Kumo (cloud).  All of that "should be" support this week.  We'll see. Those numbers are:

50DMA - 12.95
200DMA - 12.90
Kumo bottom - 12.75

I've decided that I'm probably putting too tight a leash on AKAM by moving my stop up from $12.59 to a close below Friday's low of 13.02.  While I'd like to see AKAM take off from Friday's low, the chart doesn't know that I want that     It might want to test 12.75-12,95, then rally, and if it does, I'm stopped out for a 1% loss, which is a very tight stop.

I'm still going to raise my stop from $12.59, but for now, I'm only going to raise it to a CLOSE (or obvious late day tank) below 12.75.  That's the bottom of the Kumo (cloud) on the chart.  From my entry of 13.14, that's a 3% risk, which is reasonable, and I think it's warranted in this case.   

BTW, I'm seeing some other charts that look like this one.  Charts that have broken out to the upside, and that now are testing the pattern breakouts.  eliteG's INFA comes to mind, for one.  DECK is another (I forget who posted that one).   

Sorry, you have to use the horizontal scroll bar below the chart to see the entire chart (I didn't notice that scroll bar on the first chart that I posted and thought I had only half a chart) 

[Melf Elf]

Very little on the upside yesterday ($0.05), but AKAM held at both the top of the Ichimoku Kumo (cloud), and at the top of the Ascending Triangle.   I held it.

[Melf Elf]

Very little on the upside yesterday ($0.05), but AKAM held at both the top of the Ichimoku Kumo (cloud), and at the top of the Ascending Triangle.   I held it.

AKAM rallied 4% off double support at the top of the triangle, and at the top of the Kumo (cloud).  It closed at 13.75.  I'm long from 13.14.  I held it.

[Melf Elf]

AKAM has done well off the successful pullback to the Ascending Triangle breakout.  I was long from 13.14.  I sold it here at 14.19 for an 8% gain.  I still like the chart.  Just taking some profits today.

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1120154501515?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:AKAM&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=200&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

[Adam]

This stock is very intriguing.  the base on this stock is a big one.  I don't know where the break is but this could be a 5 bagger

[Melf Elf]

This stock is very intriguing. 

VERY intriguing.  What I liked so much about the "Pullback To Breakout," was that prior to the breakout in late May, 2005, AKAM looked like it had put in a BIG H&S top 

Instead, it turned the corner, formed an Ascending Triangle, and had a bullish breakout.   

[Melf Elf]

AKAM has done well off the successful pullback to the Ascending Triangle breakout. 
I was long from 13.14.  I sold it here at 14.19 for an 8% gain.  I still like the chart. 
Just taking some profits today.

AKAM was in a pullback to the triangle breakout when I bought it.
I sold it early, to offset a loser.  AKAM just printed 15.57,
within a penny of the pattern target on the chart.  I love a chart like this.
Breakout.  Pullback to breakout.  Rally to the target.

[Adam]

Am i missing something because this chart looks like a potential HOME RUN!  The base is large...the question is the potential space?  Should we own this in a lrge way.  Melf, what do you think? 

[Melf Elf]

Am i missing something because this chart looks like a potential HOME RUN!  The base is large...the question is the potential space?  Should we own this in a lrge way.  Melf, what do you think? 

This chart was looking ominous coming into 2005, Adam.  A year-long H&S Top 

It turned the corner at the end of May, 2005 when it broke out above the five-month Symmetrical Triangle, but that base (in green) is much smaller than the H&S top was (in red).   And, volume has been significantly lower on this year's rally than it was in 2004.   

AKAM still has to chew through resistance from 2004 between here and 18.27. (This chart doesn't include today's data, BTW).  The people who bought AKAM last year at those higher prices have been holding a loser and would like finally to get out of it at a break even, or at a small loss. 

While the chart looks fine, the remainder of 2005 could be spent dealing with that overhead supply (resistance). 

[Richard]

Short intrest increased by 47% last month to around 8,000,000.

Dr. Richard wants to know: does it hurt when I do this?



I searched and found an old thread on this one, but it said "pullback to breakout" in the subject lline, which I thought would be confusing, so I started a new one. Maybe we should just put ticker alone in subject for a pick??