MOVI is no longer valid. It has changed to MOVIQ.PK

[REALDEALS21]

This stock was a loser in 2005 but may bounce back up in 2006. It might go to bankruptcy or might escape BK.

Some news recently............

Movie Gallery Announces Amendment to Senior Credit Facility
Thursday March 16, 7:00 am ET


DOTHAN, Ala., March 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Movie Gallery, Inc. (Nasdaq: MOVI - News) today announced that it has entered into a definitive amendment to its senior credit facility. Pursuant to the terms of the amendment, among other things, the financial covenants with which the Company must comply have been relaxed for the next four fiscal quarters. In addition, interest rate terms have been increased and certain mandatory prepayment provisions have been modified. Furthermore, the Company's ability to incur indebtedness, pay dividends, redeem its capital stock, make capital expenditures, make acquisitions, and other covenants have been made more restrictive.

UPDATE 1-Movie Gallery wins relief from lenders
Thu Mar 16, 2006 7:48 AM ET
(New throughout)

NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - Video rental chain Movie Gallery Inc. (MOVI.O: Quote, Profile, Research), whose shares have plunged more than 90 percent since June, on Thursday said it has won relief from some financial covenants under its credit agreement, but will be required to pay a higher interest rate.

FACT BOX

MOVI.O (Movie Gallery Inc)
Last: $3.19
Change: +0.22
Up/Down: +7.41%
 

AprJulOctJan
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Company Profile
Analyst Research
The No. 2 North American video rental chain, which has about 4,800 stores, has been struggling with what analysts call a mediocre crop of films, competition from other forms of entertainment, and growth in online DVD rentals.

Dothan, Alabama-based Movie Gallery said its lenders agreed to amend its senior credit facility to relax financial covenants that Movie Gallery must meet over the next four fiscal quarters.

The amendment also places new restrictions on Movie Gallery's ability to make capital expenses and acquisitions, incur debt, pay dividends and redeem stock. It also modifies some mandatory prepayment provisions.

Chief Executive Joe Malugen said the company plans to "aggressively right size" by closing unprofitable stores, divesting some assets, and cutting back office costs. He said these steps "will help offset the continued softness that we are seeing in the box-office release schedule."

On Wednesday, the company said it hired a real estate restructuring firm to help it sublease space at more than 2,200 stores.

Movie Gallery expects it will be unable to file its annual report with regulators by the March 17 deadline because of delays associated with the amendment, and with an audit following its purchase of Hollywood Entertainment Corp. It expects to file the report by the end of the month.

Movie Gallery shares, which reached $34.13 last June 21, closed Wednesday at $2.97 on Nasdaq.

MOVI UPGRADED.......Target $5

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.7f99771214424d21b378d9d9c1b914e149486617de9d349faccf415323e85591

[ScottishTrader]

MOVI looks like it has a solid chance of a breakout shortly - is completing a pennant formation after the huge jump on earnings earlier this month, and may be set to continue its reversal from the precipitous drop of 2005.

Earnings demonstrated that restructuring and cost saving has been having a significant effect, as they reported quarterly earnings of 1.24 per share from .58/share a year earlier.  And this is for a stock currently trading at under $5. 

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060511/nyth056.html?.v=44

While there is some uncertainty whether they can maintain this performance, I think MOVI is set for a major reversal in the coming months.

They have also indicated that they would be receptive to some kind of deal with rival Blockbuster -
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/060511/retail_moviegallery_deal.html?.v=1

whether something like this may go ahead remains to be seen, but it would certainly come at a significant premium to the current pps.

Finally, consider that with a flost of 31.8M shares, as of 10th April, 16.7M or almost 60% of the float was short as of April.  While many of those have covered now, hence the squeeze on earnings, I think there is probably still a substantial short interest that could fuel a rally over the coming weeks.

All in all, I think we could have a nice move here in the coming months.  Now have a look at the chart.  A 2 year weekly chart shows exactly what a precipitous drop MOVI has taken from its high over $34 a year ago to recent lows of 1.68.  I would expect that it should easily get back into the 5.50-6.00 trading range it was in at the end of the year.  What is bonkers is that there are probably relatively few bagholders in MOVI because such a huge proportion of the float was short.  Additionally, apparently an unbelievable 98% of the float is held by instituitons, which have controlled its mvoe south.

Technically, a pennant has formed since the huge gap up that looks to resolve itself today.  My bet is that it will resolve itself to the upside (and looking at PM activity, MOVI is sitting at 4.95, but on relatively few shares traded). The technical target of the pennant breakout is 6.10, which sits at the top of the dec-Jan trading range.  I think this (and more) is fairly easily achievable, and with such a small amount of shares available in the retail space, if the insty's sit tight, this could really be a rocket.

Will have to wait and see...  (disclosure: I bought yesterday at 4.70 - at the high, but i always do that )

[ScottishTrader]

MOVI under a little weakness but moving up - would lie to see it close above $5!

An interesting article on Shultz Asset Management, who recently increased their stake in MOVI, making them the largest single shareholder.  They are currently down on their purchase price, but I doubt for too long - once the recent high of 5.35 is broken, I would expect a significant short squeeze to come into effect.

http://media.seekingalpha.com/article/10840

[ScottishTrader]

MOVI continuing to move well - approaching recent resistance at 5.35.  This also gets us into Dec-Jan bagholder territory, though I'm not convinced there are too many bagholders left.  Short term ascending trendline is holding up nicely, and I am looking for MOVI to get above 5.35 shortly.  If it does, it should easily run to $6.

Anyone else got a position in MOVI right now?

[AussieTrader]

Aye Scots, I have a position in MOVI from just under $5.00 and will add if resistance above the $5.35 zone gets taken out.

[AussieTrader]

Nice, nice breakout of recent resistanc zone this Friday. MOVI has a lot of upside, hugely undervalued, stock price been trashed these last few months and is now starting to reverse that trend. Alos has a huge short position of 14M shares. I agree with you Scottish we could see a great turnround here. I am not setting a sell target yet, but will be tightening up my stop over the weekend.

[AussieTrader]

The Street.com republished this article which included this on MOVI. This will add fuel to the fire for next week

http://www.thestreet.com/_mktw/markets/activetraderupdate/10289556.html

"I like Movie Gallery (MOVI:Nasdaq - news - research - Cramer's Take). It got into a bidding war with Blockbuster (BBI:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) for Hollywood Video, which Blockbuster had to concede because of antitrust issues. So, MOVI won. It took over Hollywood Video in Q2 last year, and almost immediately, things turned to spit: integration issues, too much debt and a disastrous box office led to huge volume declines in the rental market. The debt used to finance the acquisition had to be renegotiated and will need to be renegotiated again in the future. No wonder everybody thought it was going bankrupt. So, after three quarters of dreck, it finally printed up a wonderful Q1 last week. 2006 EBITDA was thought to be $200 million or so, which likely means bankruptcy, but Q1 EBITDA was $116 million, and I think it has a very good shot at more than $300 million this year, given: 1) Better box office and rental comps, 2) Finally squeezing some of those promised merger savings and synergies [and] 3) Their backs are against the wall. If it doesn't execute, it goes bankrupt. [The] CEO was the founder of company and still owns more than 10%. If I am right, the stock is probably a triple or quadruple from here."

[AussieTrader]

Wow, this is nice

[shawFund]

My MOVI has gained 150% so far. It took 30% of my portfolio money.

First bought at ~$5.5, doubled it at $3.00+,  doubled it again at $2.00+.

Check my website at www.whitePineInvest.com:.

I'm going to sell all of it at strength today or in the next few days
and use the proceed to buy AMD: FIRST bought AT $30, will DOUBLE IT AT $20,
DOUBLE it AGAIN at $10. I just buy one stock using tons of money. The stock has to have enough liquidity.

With the gain from MOVI, the portfolio gained 80% this year with only about 15 trades and reached one million dollar mark for the first time within 5 years.

$50,000 initial investment (2001/06), added $140,000 (2004/07). It becomes 1 million dollar portfolio within 5 years.


I am looking for two million within 18 month. I am looking for 100% gain from semi rebound for year end rally.

[ScottishTrader]

Nice going ShawFund - haven't seen you aroound here in a while, but that is a pretty good long term return - have always liked your picks and analysis, and you sure had courage to put that much into MOVI, but it really paid off today.

Cheers for the intraday chart too Aussi, I think we've got a live one here.  Currently looks to be building strength for a second leg after the first pullback.  Am currently lookings at a 50% gain from my buy a couple weeks back, but I think this has more room to run, so will hold for now.  Could see an easy 10Mil share day today as shorts get squeezed hard.

You guys got any short-medium term targets?  It blew right through my first target of 6.10, and I don't see much resistance above for a loooong way - 12.5?  20? Who knows?

[jpm]

Tomorow Movi open in $7.50 and close im $8/$8.50 

I love this Movi...

[ScottishTrader]

Unfortunately, MOVI wasn't quite that bullish jpm, but we do have a nice symmetrical triangle building on the 15 minute chart.  Look for a break out of the pattern as it narrows for MOVI's next move 

[AussieTrader]

Nice call on the intra chart Scots. I added a 3rd position in MOVI today as it pulled back to the 200sma. I saw this area as real strong support, so my entry was relative low risk as I had a stop on my entire position just below that zone. Now we have:

1) Financial turnround story, undervalued big time
2) Takeover rumours with BBI
3) Cramer pumping (well could be good or bad that 
4) Breakout and hold above the 200sma (and 200 ema, I track both)
5) Big volume
6) Big open short position and short covering going on
7) Crappy market with many speculators looking for vehicles to ride (not that many green, so MOVI stands out

This makes for a great speculative 'bubble' around MOVI and 'almost' guarantees continued upward price pressure (nothing is guaranteed in the market though!!) I love the chart set up as well, price gets trashed over a 3 month period, produces a rounded bottom (of sorts), tests recent resistance, breaks through that resistance with all technical indicators blazing.

Because of the above points it is difficulat to set a profit target, so for now I am just tucking up my stop below significant resistance zones, probably with split quantities so that I don't get whipped out of my entire lot.

Good luck anyone in MOVI. Weekly chart below.

[Terliso]

BUSINESS SUMMARY   
Movie Gallery, Inc. operates as a home entertainment specialty retailer in North America. It owns and operates retail stores that rent and sell DVDs, videocassettes, and video games under Movie Gallery, Hollywood Video, and Game Crazy brands. The Movie Gallery and Hollywood Video brand stores offer a selection of movies and video games for rent and sale. Its Movie Gallery stores carry from 2,700 to 16,000 movies and video games, as well as Hollywood Video stores carry approximately 25,000 movies and video games. The Game Crazy brand stores consist primarily of its Hollywood Video in-store game departments where consumers buy, sell, and trade new and used video game software, hardware, and accessories. Its Game Crazy stores carry approximately 9,000 units of new and used video games, hardware, and accessories for new and legacy game systems. The company also provides new and used game accessories, such as controllers; memory cards; and game media, including strategy guides. As of January 1, 2006, it owned and operated 4,749 stores. The company was formed by Joe Malugen and Harrison Parrish in 1985 and is based in Dothan, Alabama.


First of all, this stock is still in a BULLISH MODE...
so there is no hurry to take short position right now but i'm preparing....

Positive side
1) bull power still on

Negative side
1) what I noticed in many charts stock will not break the 50sma weekly scale in the first attempt when it came from strong downtrend & I believe that is going to be the major resistance ahead for MOVI.
(I may be wrong) <-------

2) In my opinion the price will top out at least around $8.10 to $8.60 .....from here I'll take short position if I see the technicals go bad on the daily chart

3) 9 sma is being left behind very far on the daily chart ... just look what happened to IFO.

[Terliso]

MOVI2