HEB

[saffeysite1]

Keep this biotech stock on watch list.

[saffeysite1]

I think HEB, NVAX and SVA are great plays for the Bird FLu.  THings are heating up with all the news of late on the topic.


Hemispherx Biopharma recently disclosed in a letter to shareholders (September 1, 2005) that it has increased the capacity of its facility in New Brunswick, NJ to manufacture Ampligen® , as well as advancements in the application of Alferon LDO for potential treatment of avian flu.

[saffeysite1]

updating chart.

[poorman1]

Simply can't resist, I have to have HEB in my portfolio.  Apparantly this Avarian flu is a big deal (surely an understatment).

If I trade NVAX and SVA, then why not diversify with HEB?  This is my logic.

Currently @ $1.77, but could easily get back to $4-5 if new cases develop.  I'm not hoping for an outbreak, but I see similarities between how stocks are reacting to this strain of influenza and how certain security stocks reacted to terrorism.

[poorman1]

News from the last couple of hours.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051004/ap_on_he_me/bush_avian_flu;_ylt=AithNrSt0UBYYNcN_vSXClSs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3czJjNGZoBHNlYwM3NTE-

Bush Considers Military Role in Flu Fight

WASHINGTON -     President Bush, increasingly concerned about a possible avian flu pandemic, revealed Tuesday that any part of the country where the virus breaks out could likely be quarantined and that he is considering using the military to enforce it.

"The best way to deal with a pandemic is to isolate it and keep it isolated in the region in which it begins," he said during a wide-ranging Rose Garden news conference.

The president was asked if his recent talk of giving the military the lead in responding to large natural disasters such as Hurricane Katrina and other catastrophes was in part the result of his concerns that state and local personnel aren't up to the task of a flu outbreak.

"Yes," he replied.

After the bungled initial federal response to Katrina, Bush suggested putting the     Pentagon in charge of search-and-rescue efforts in times of a major terrorist attack or similarly catastrophic natural disaster. He has argued that the armed forces have the ability to quickly mobilize the equipment, manpower and communications capabilities needed in times of crisis.

But such a shift could require a change in law, and some in Congress and the states worry it would increase the power of the federal government at the expense of local control.

Bush made clear that the potential for an outbreak of avian flu is much on his mind, and has had him talking with "as many (world) leaders as I could find," consulting a book he read over the summer on the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that killed 40 million and meeting with staff and experts.

"I have thought through the scenarios of what an avian flu outbreak could mean," he said.

He acknowledged that a quarantine — an idea sure to alarm many in the public — is no small thing for the government to undertake and that enforcing it would be tricky.

"It's one thing to shut down airplanes," Bush said. "It's another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu."

He urged Congress to give him the ability to use the military, if needed.

"I think the president ought to have all ... assets on the table to be able to deal with something this significant," he said.

As a standby precaution, Bush in April signed an executive order that added pandemic influenza to the government's list of communicable diseases for which a quarantine is authorized. It gives the government legal authority to detain or isolate a passenger arriving in the United States to prevent an infection from spreading.

At the time the order was signed, a spokeswoman for the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the Public Health Service would probably recommend home quarantines when possible, but said they would be voluntary. It's unclear whether the federal takeover of state and local quarantine powers that Bush discussed Tuesday would be limited just to travel or involve broader home quarantines as well.

Bush also said he has been urging world leaders to improve reporting on outbreaks of the virus, and exploring how to speed the production of a spray, now in limited supply, that "can maybe help arrest the spread of the disease."

"One of the issues is how do we encourage the manufacturing capacity of the country, and maybe the world, to be prepared to deal with the outbreak of a pandemic?" he said.

Yet it is the pill Tamiflu, which makes symptoms less severe and shortens the duration of the illness, that is in short supply — not its harder-to-use inhaled competitor Relenza.

Experts agree there will certainly be another flu pandemic — a new human flu strain that goes global. However, it is unknown when or how bad that global epidemic will be — or whether the H5N1 bird flu strain now circulating in Asian poultry will be its origin.

Just in case, experts are tracking the avian flu, which has swept through poultry populations in large swaths of Asia since 2003, jumped to humans and killed at least 65 people.

Most human cases have been linked to a contact with sick birds, but the     World Health Organization has warned the virus could mutate into a form that spreads easily among humans — changing it from a bird virus to a human pandemic flu strain.

[poorman1]

It appears that HEB's Ampligen is already being used in sales/marketing strategies, which boasts the enhanced affect of Tamiflu.

http://www.buytamiflu.co.uk/tamiflu_against_avian.htm

Avian bird flu - Tamiflu and Ampligen most effective combination
Recent news reports inform that preclinical studies conducted on dsRNA (Double-stranded RNA) based drug Ampligen, being manufactured by Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. might prove to be the perfect compliment to Tamiflu, the most effective medication for Influenza affliction. Ampligen is an experimental immunomodulator and will hopefully play a potentially pivotal role in improving the efficacy of the present standards of care in influenza prevention as well as treatment of acute diseases.

poorman1

[poorman1]

SVA, NVAX and HEB are the front runners in this mania.

HEB has Ampligen, which shows to increas the success of TamiFlu

Two days ago, the US Senate passed a $4 Billion bill to purchase TamiFlu(TM) (Roche) and also to pursue additional strategies for prevention as well as treatment. Tamiflu(TM) has limited effectiveness but remains the only means of treatment against avian flu at present. The Senate funding move came the same day the United Nations' new avian flu coordinator Dr. David Nabarro warned that a flu pandemic could kill millions of people worldwide.

[REALDEALS21]

Broke $2 ! NICE ! 

[poorman1]

This chart is behind the RTQ but captures the breakout.

[SmartWrasse]

Looks good saffeysite.  I shoulda bought more   

[ScottishTrader]

Me too!!

I only got half my order filled at 1.87, after I saw it breakout.  Another one of those ridiculous instances where I was going to buy at the open and just needed to free up some capital.  While I was figuring what to sell, HEB broke out!  Believe me, it wasn't hard to figure out which of my losers to sell then, am only bummed that my whole order didn't get filled.

Oh well, with the other half I bought back into HOM after it filled the gap.  nice.

[ehos]

I didn't pay attention before (DOU!), but when the president wants to go as far as Martial Law to combat Bird Flu, THAT gets my attention (yes, I'm dense).

http://dbs.cordis.lu/cgi-bin/srchidadb?CALLER=NHP_EN_NEWS&ACTION=D&SESSION=&RCN=EN_RCN_ID:24551

The article says that new strains of Bird Flu are becoming resistant to Tamiflu, which means that Ampligen will be 'required' alongside Tamiflu.

Market cap of only 100 Million and there is talk of 4 BILLION being spent to fight the Bird Flu. 

[Melf Elf]

I think HEB, NVAX and SVA are great plays for the Bird FLu.  THings are heating up with all the news of late on the topic.

Great job, Saffeysite.  Applause.

[REALDEALS21]

All 3 stocks are up in AH !

[David Randolph]

Profile: Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (HEB). The Group's principal activity is to develop therapeutic products for the treatment of viral diseases and certain cancers. The Group's proprietary drug technology utilizes specifically configured ribonucleic acid (RNA) and is protected by more than 300 patents worldwide. The products of the Group include Ampligen, oragenT drugs. Ampligen is being developed clinically for three anti-viral indications: myalgic encephalomyelitis, human immunodeficiency virus associated disorders and chronic hepatitis B virus infection.

Recent News:

-Hemispherx Biopharma Signs Research Agreement with Japanese National Institute of Infectious Disease; Ampligen(R) Sought as Adjuvant for Nasal Flu Vaccine

-Ampligen (R) Enhances the Effectiveness of Tamiflu Against Avian Influenza; Second Independent Preclinical Study Confirms dsRNA Increases Flu Vaccine Effectiveness

-Hemispherx Biopharma Expands Manufacturing Facility for Production of Ampligen(R); Status of clinical trial advancements for Alferon LDO and manufacturing programs updated in stockholder letter

Market Cap: $116.21M ("51,193,155  shares of common stock were issued and  outstanding  as of August 2, 2005.")

Insiders Activity: http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/insiders.asp?siteID=mktw&symb=HEB

Fundamental Reasoning:

I think we're officially in a bear market now. Only specific stories and stock picks will do. Speculators are starting to bet the Bird Flu will be a serious problem for the World (read this article: WHO warns of dire flu pandemic)

The article is from 2004, but recently everybody is talking and thinking about the Bird Flu because scientists are calling for fast measures to be taken, because the Bird Flu Pandemic will unfortunately almost for sure be a reality in the near future. Even the President is talking about it: http://search.cnn.com/pages/search.jsp?query=bird%20flu, and a UN top official said the disease could kill 150 million people around the world  

Governments around the world are feeling the pressure to buy vaccines and antidotes to fight the possibly upcoming pandemic. HEB has a drug on its PhaseIII clinical trials that seems to be effective  against the Bird Flu virus, as you can read on the recent news in the beginning of this text.

If the pandemic really outbreaks, everybody in the world will be looking for something that just a few companies have. It will be like water in the desert, or even more needed, like oxygen on the moon.

Of course, I don't know the future and I hope nothing of this dread scenario plays out. But I know about speculation and people are starting to speculate on this story. I own SVA and of course a part of its rise is due to this speculation theme. There are not much more themes to speculate at this point, so we need to take the small piece of the action the market is giving.

Technical Reasoning:

The all history chart shows us that the volume today was the highest in the stock's history and that usually means a strong bullish move is coming:



The stock is also at a low point, so the positive fundamental developments are not priced in.

Considering the medium term we can see that the stock broke a resistance level today that can act as a safety net to this trade:



$1.96 was that resistance level, now support.

On the short term level, the candlestick level, today the stock had a long white marubozu with record volume:



In a situation like this, a pure technical analyst must buy first and ask questions later.

Trading Plan:

I guess the stock will open with a gap up tomorrow, it closed up 5.73% on after hours and with the President talking about the Bird Flu ... but I have to buy anyway, this is the only game in town (a sad one indeed, but the stock market has no feelings, so as a speculator I run away from them too - not as a person, of course  )

So what I will do is close my eyes and buy HEB at tomorrow's open. My trading plan is to sell only if the stock ever closes back below $1.96 or when some serious news about the Bird Flu hits the wires. Buy the rumor, sell the news, even more true with theme stocks.