HAUP

[Melf Elf]

Boatguy, Basonista, Oicpecnoc, ygtrader, mbough gorgegr and fous,

Thanks for your understanding of my concerns, which were about rayongthai and the possible pumping and dumping in this stock, not the company HAUP itself.  Applauded you all.

David, you did a lot of hard work (as always) looking into the various phases of trading in this stock over the past six years!  Applause.  It sounds like a very plausible explanation, too.

Even if HAUP has been the victim of pumping and dumping over the past six years, that's not in any way a negative reflection on the company itself.  That happens, particularly in low float stocks, and the company itself is as much a victim as the shareholders are when that occurs.

That's similar to "short raids" in a stock, or in my mind, to analysts' upgrades and downgrades, when they "pile on."

The fact that the fundamentals in HAUP look to be improving, thanks to the research of David, Michael and other 3 SOF members is reassuring, so we'll all watch it, just like we would any other stock.

David,  you handled the rayongthai situation very well.   Thank you.  I totally agree: that particular situation is completely separate from anything to do with HAUP.

Good luck to everyone in HAUP.  I hope that it's a huge winner.

 

[Michael]

Hmmm... this has become the most active thread at 3SOF I would like to think that it is because of HAUP's superior products and great potentials but ......

So lets re-focus and talk a bit about the fundamentals

Much of the attention has been on HAUP's TV tuner cards for good reasons. Hauppauge is the leader in this fast growing industry. Check out Microsofts windows marketplace

This list is sorted on popularity and Hauppauge takes Gold and Silver in this fast growing industry 

The TV tuner cards could justify a stock price in the teens but here at 3SOF we try to find exceptional value and what made HAUP stand out for me is the deal with Replay TV.

Replay TV is a direct competitor to Tivo. They are  both offering PVR's which is enhancing the TV viewing experience:

Here is a good description of: the concept from Hal Plotkin a Correspondent for CNBC. It is a bit old but I think that what he describes is what is happening today (even in Africa!).

Let me quote:

DVRs are destined to become a must-own consumer electronics item, particularly as prices fall. I don't know anyone who has one who would ever willingly go back to watching TV the old-fashioned way.

Imagine to be able to see a TV show, skip the commercials, play the highlights in slow-motion and at the same time record your favorite show that are playing on an alternative channel. This is what PVR is offering you. Well it sounds good for me!

TIVO is valued at 500 million USD even though they have never earned a single dollar. That tells me that the investment community believe in the potential.

TIVO is still not profitable because they subsidize the hardware to cash in on recurring revenue streams. I am sure Replay TV is doing the same and I like that

You see the hardware is supplied by HAUP and if somebody is willing to subsidize the hardware why would I complain.

Replay TV seems to be a much better option than TIVO at least from a cost point of view. The cost of ownership for one year with TIVO is USD 199 and for Replay TV USD 99.95. and the features seems very similar.

So lets summarize:

We have a technology that is destined to become a must-own consumer electronics item and we have a very well capitalized company (Replay TV) that are willing to subsidize the product in order to put it into every household. The technology is supplied by a company which is trading at a PE of 29 is growing earnings rapidly and has a market cap of 68 million USD.

As said before this might be a pump and dump story. I can't wait for the dump to start. I am the garbage can and I am only half full!

[Terliso]

Replay TV seems to be a much better option than TIVO at least from a cost point of view. The cost of ownership for one year with TIVO is USD 199 and for Replay TV USD 99.95. and the features seems very similar.

$199 for subscription in TIVO?? no wonder the company does not make money...

If you want to save some bucks just buy the BEYOND TV4 software & HAUP TV tuner card & hook it up to your PC with your plasma TV.... No subscription fees, Beyond TV 4.5 is way much better than TIVO & Replay TV...

http://www.snapstream.com/products/beyondtv/

[Michael]

$199 for subscription in TIVO?? no wonder the company does not make money...

If you want to save some bucks just buy the BEYOND TV4 software & HAUP TV tuner card & hook it up to your PC with your plasma TV.

Yes there are a lot of options out there (hmmmm... nobody have mentioned that HAUP provides the hardware for Motorola and Scientific Atlanta cable boxes ). For me the most important is that HAUP is in the center of all the action!

And action there is:

I quoted some old research but this article is only 5 days old: http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/entertainment/54820.html

Viewers Embrace Time Shifting

That increase is a result of consumers looking for ways to view programming when it is most convenient, instead of when a show originally airs. That same desire has pushed TiVo and Replay TV weekly usage up 88.1 percent.

I am wondering if Beyond TV4 is growing even faster 

[njshiva]

Boatguy, Basonista, Oicpecnoc, ygtrader, mbough gorgegr and fous,

Thanks for your understanding of my concerns, which were about rayongthai and the possible pumping and dumping in this stock, not the company HAUP itself.  Applauded you all.

David, you did a lot of hard work (as always) looking into the various phases of trading in this stock over the past six years!  Applause.  It sounds like a very plausible explanation, too.

Even if HAUP has been the victim of pumping and dumping over the past six years, that's not in any way a negative reflection on the company itself.  That happens, particularly in low float stocks, and the company itself is as much a victim as the shareholders are when that occurs.

That's similar to "short raids" in a stock, or in my mind, to analysts' upgrades and downgrades, when they "pile on."

The fact that the fundamentals in HAUP look to be improving, thanks to the research of David, Michael and other 3 SOF members is reassuring, so we'll all watch it, just like we would any other stock.

David,  you handled the rayongthai situation very well.   Thank you.  I totally agree: that particular situation is completely separate from anything to do with HAUP.

Good luck to everyone in HAUP.  I hope that it's a huge winner.

 

Jeez, now I have to worry about pump and dump from premium members 
I too took a position in HAUP, will be watching like a hawk now 

Great job Melf Elf. Applause

[Terliso]

Beyond TV 4 product demonstration with HAUP TV Tuner Card.

http://www.youtube.com/v/rSaGp0wbuY0

[Melf Elf]

[Jeez, now I have to worry about pump and dump from premium members 

njshiva,

Not to worry...that sort of thing can happen at any web site, but David has taken care of it, and we'll all continue to be vigilant about it in the future.

Meanwhile, David, Michael, Alister and other have done nice work looking into the fundamentals of HAUP.  Applauds.

I too took a position in HAUP, will be watching like a hawk now 

Yes, we'll all share our observations. 

If HAUP does get dumped after this rally, as it has in the past, that isn't through any fault of the the company itself.  That kind of manipulation can happen to any company that we trade, particularly ones in which trading is less liquid, so we don't need to be unduly concerned about HAUP.

Good luck!

[David Randolph]

Thanks for the great information Michael and Terliso

I'll try to buy Hauppauge's product tomorrow. It says on their website that I can buy it at MediaMarkt, Fnac or El Corte Inglés and those stores exist here in Lisbon.

Then I'll download Beyond TV 4 software (recommended by Terliso) and see if I can make it work.

As for the chart, as usual my short term timing wasn't good, the stock may fill the gap between $6.31 and $6.46 (it looks like Tokyopua was right in being worried), or it may touch the ascending trendline's support at $6.43, I don't know.

What I'm pretty positive is that in a month's time I'll be in the green with HAUP and this is probably going to be an outstanding trade for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. Why? Well, everything points north:

- The company's target market is growing rapidly;
- The company is already profitable and it will be even more profitable as sales increase; the sales multiple is just 0.68.
- There wasn't any dilution since 1997, well, because the company is profitable, so we don't need to worry about dilution;
- The chart is bullish, despite today's sell off.

I'll continue holding HAUP for the foreseeable future.

[eggman11]

Michael

"Yes there are a lot of options out there (hmmmm... nobody have mentioned that HAUP provides the hardware for Motorola and Scientific Atlanta cable boxes ). For me the most important is that HAUP is in the center of all the action!"

Can you provide a link and more details concerning their deals with Motorola and Scientific Atlanta (the leader in cable boxes). I currently use Time Warner Cable (One of the largest cable companies in the US) and have 2 of their DVR boxes (Made by Scientific Atlanta).  Their DVR service is extremely popular. A lot of friends are already signed up for it. and they have two different models HD and regular. The boxes are free, people pay $8.95 per month per box and you can always upgrade to a newer model free of charge. (more hours of storage and features) They extremely popular and demand is growing. Most people in US watch TV through a cable company (I think its over 90% maybe higher) and I believe that the DVR will be as ubiquitous as a VCR is all homes.

Does HAUP supply all the hardware for Scientific Atlanta and Motorola or just a certain amount?

How much $ per unit?

Please provide as many links and details about the deals with Scientific Atlanta and Motorola. I am seriously considering adding a lot more to my current position.

Thanks,

Egg

[Michael]

Michael

Can you provide a link and more details concerning their deals with Motorola and Scientific Atlanta (the leader in cable boxes).

No I can't! And the reason is very simple they don't provide the HW for Motorola and Scientific Atlanta's cable boxes    (this is the embarrassed smiley!!!!)

I was too fast on this one. I had a look at the Blaster Table: (http://www.hauppauge.com/pages/support/blaster_table_na_cable.htm) and I thought that it meant that HAUP provided part of the technology behind Motorola's and Scientific Atlanta's Cable Boxes. Now when you asked I looked a bit closer and it seems like this has something to do with Hauppauge's IR remote control. Sorry about that. It was not an attempt to misinform 

[David Randolph]

I've applauded Michael . All men make mistakes (even more so when analyzing stocks), but not many have the honesty to publicly recognize those mistakes.

Michael's example shows how this message board is different from others like Yahoo Boards. There you can't trust anybody, because people disappear when they make mistakes.

Here we understand that mistakes, in trading and analysis, are a part of the game. We strive to make less and less mistakes as we grow as analysts/investors/speculators, and the only way to do that is to recognize mistakes in the first place.

So, hats off to Michael

It's also interesting to see how eggman1 wanted a confirmation on the fundamentals before buying the stock. He clearly knows what he's doing with his money. Hats off to eggman1 too

Now, going back to HAUP, you probably don't know it, but Ramsburg is the most shrewdest internet/technology geek that I've ever heard of. Even for American standards. Today I went to his office to put some new software in my computer  ... and I asked him about my HAUP's play.

He said: "Come here, let me show you something ..."

I don't want to make this text too long, but he showed me a DVR that is prepared to receive IP TV, that is, television through the internet. He already has the receiver, but no one, not even in the US, is already providing IP TV, still just studying the idea.

He said "we already have 24 mbits broadband internet here in Portugal, if IP TV spends just 1 or 2 mbits of broadband, the internet may substitute cable and air as a way for television".

Also, he showed me websites, particularly www.channelchooser.com where you can already watch TV on your computer, free (just don't go to the Adult section with your kids watching lol). With available software on the internet people can record TV, make videos and upload them on Google Video or YouTube without paying a cent.

Also, I wasn't aware of the following the first time I looked, but HAUP's product needs to be connected by a cable to the house's antenna or cable TV interface. It isn't mobile. You can't take away your computer to anywhere you want, provided that you have internet, and watch TV.

Technology can make HAUP's product obsolete, but nobody knows when. I already made the mistake of selling IIG too soon, because they sold a $6,000 software that you can download for free from the internet (a similar, perhaps better, product). But the fact is that they're selling that software more and more and the stock keeps rising.

The technological change is so fast (and it will only become faster) that many companies can profit from market inefficiencies. Companies sell products to not so technologically advanced consumers that they couldn't sell to more advanced users.

I need to trust fundamentals on this. HAUP sold $97.7 M in fiscal 2006 and its current market cap is just $70 M. Nobody knows the future. Now, this stock is undervalued and I'll continue holding it.

[kpunarc]

This is a slight bit off the HAUP topic but to add onto what you were just saying about IP TV. There's already TV on palm devices/cell phones. Say you have Satellite TV such as DirecTV (in US) and have a specific cable box that puts your cable online. Then you use a program that's installed on your palm or cell phone and access your cable television from anywhere with internet accessibility.

SlingMedia for example is a product that you can get where you get the 'SlingBox' or 'SlingTuner' that puts your cable online. Then once online, you use the 'SlingPlayer' to access it and voila...you're watching your home cable from your cell phone. Check it out...

http://us.slingmedia.com/page/slingplayer.html

[Michael]

I've applauded Michael . All men make mistakes (even more so when analyzing stocks), but not many have the honesty to publicly recognize those mistakes.

Hi David

Thanks for the applauds. It is tempting to make a few mistakes – it certainly helps on the rating 

I don't want to make this text too long, but he (Ramsburg) showed me a DVR that is prepared to receive IP TV, that is, television through the internet. He already has the receiver, but no one, not even in the US, is already providing IP TV, still just studying the idea.

He said "we already have 24 mbits broadband internet here in Portugal, if IP TV spends just 1 or 2 mbits of broadband, the internet may substitute cable and air as a way for television".

Yes IP TV is the future but it will hardly kill TV for the next many years (as TV didn't kill the cinema's). TV will live side by side with IP TV for many years and HAUP is right in the middle of that revolution.

Let's say you have a local TV station in Portugal that doesn't offer IP TV and you want to have that channel available while you are on Holiday in lets say Mozambique  . No problem! WinTV comes with Orb's Software free of charge.

This mean that WinTV-PVR users can watch TV streamed from their home PC anywhere in the world on virtually any Web-enabled mobile device. Combine a Hauppauge WinTV-PVR and Orb's software and you will be able to watch live or prerecorded TV on mobile phones, PDAs and even your laptop computer in Mozambique. Now ask Ramsburg if he thinks that is coooool 

You can read more here: http://www.hauppauge.com/orb/index.html

Also, I wasn't aware of the following the first time I looked, but HAUP's product needs to be connected by a cable to the house's antenna or cable TV interface. It isn't mobile. You can't take away your computer to anywhere you want, provided that you have internet, and watch TV.

Well not absolutely true. If you install the WinTV card on your desktop you can stream TV over your WiFi hotspot in your home (or any WiFi hotspot in the world for that matter). With a WiFi enabled laptop or Video Ipod or phone you will be able to see your favorite channel anywhere you have WiFi coverage. Now that is Mobile TV taken to the extreme 

I need to trust fundamentals on this. HAUP sold $97.7 M in fiscal 2006 and its current market cap is just $70 M. Nobody knows the future. Now, this stock is undervalued and I'll continue holding it.

Even though I was wrong about Hauppauge supplying the hardware to Motorola and Scientific Atlantic I still stand by the comment that HAUP is in the center of the media revolution that is going on as we speak. That being the explosive growth in the penetration of PVR's, the trend towards IP TV or the sharing of video's on sites like www.youtube.com

Revenue of 97.7 million USD translates roughly into 1 million WinTV tuners sold. I believe that this could grow exponential in the coming years.

But then I have been wrong before.....

[Ramsburg]

This mean that WinTV-PVR users can watch TV streamed from their home PC anywhere in the world on virtually any Web-enabled mobile device. Combine a Hauppauge WinTV-PVR and Orb's software and you will be able to watch live or prerecorded TV on mobile phones, PDAs and even your laptop computer in Mozambique. Now ask Ramsburg if he thinks that is coooool 

Hi Michael

I think it's really AWESOME !

But to have really a good image quality you need better upstream than the current standards 

Yes IP TV is the future but it will hardly kill TV for the next many years (as TV didn't kill the cinema's). TV will live side by side with IP TV for many years and HAUP is right in the middle of that revolution.

Agree... not a short term scenario, and to be honest its a little complicated to predict where are we going from here. But  IPTV / ADSL TV, etc will be the future, with current broadband standards and going up, it's easy to predict that all TV will be transmitted via Internet somewhere in the future, old TV sets will use some kind of TV-Box and new sets will be fully integrated with your computer and internet).

This is not IPTV yet, but in Portugal we already have since few months ago TV over the ADSL2 structure: http://smartv.clix.pt/index.html (the website its in Portuguese  ) You still need a TV capture device like HAUP's to use this on your PC and capture, unless you have an illegal software that cracks the Internet connection and separate the TV data directly to your PC (this means that you can have digital TV on your PC without a capture device, because the TV data its being transmitted over the internet)

Well... this is just a little brainstorming about these kind of technologies, but for sure HAUP's products are hot right now, and will remain hot for long time

regards

[David Randolph]

Michael's latest post here on HAUP says it all to me. Let me just highlight these two parts:

You can read more here: http://www.hauppauge.com/orb/index.html

(this link is a must for any HAUP shareholder)

Revenue of 97.7 million USD translates roughly into 1 million WinTV tuners sold. I believe that this could grow exponential in the coming years.

This thought cuts through the essence of this HAUP play. They sold just about 1 million of their product and got $97.7 M in revenues. Can they sell 10 million in the future? Of course they can, demand is surging.

When I went to Fnac to buy one of HAUP's products, they didn't have it, but they had an entire section dedicated to this kind of peripherals to put TV on mobile devices and computers. A couple of months ago the section didn't exist. I see demand surging for these products with "video on the web" giving a precious help. All companies in the space will benefit from this global trend.

HAUP isn't just full of air, it is a profitable company with rapidly growing revenues. Please don't compare it with MAMA or ONSM, HAUP's advance is fundamentally backed as you can read on the rest of this thread.

Technically the stock broke out above the $7.17 medium term resistance level. The next resistance will only come at $10.10.

I'll continue holding HAUP.