HAUP

[Terliso]

I'll try to buy Hauppauge's product tomorrow. It says on their website that I can buy it at MediaMarkt, Fnac or El Corte Inglés and those stores exist here in Lisbon.

Then I'll download Beyond TV 4 software (recommended by Terliso) and see if I can make it work.

David, How is it? r u recording now?

[HANDBALLJIM]

According to Yahoo Finance, their main competitor is Nvidia 2.82B in Revenue They have a ton of products...I wonder how much $$$ they made from their home Entertainment unit?

http://www.nvidia.com/page/home_entertainment.html

[Michael]

A very well written article about WinTV in Mecury News:

Posted on Mon, Jan. 01, 2007

Easier than ever to tune into TV on a PC
WATCHING HIGH-DEFINITION PROGRAMS NOW POSSIBLE

By Larry Magid
Special to the Mercury News

TV tuners for PCs have been around for more than a decade, but until recently they have been of questionable use. When I first reviewed a PC tuner back in the early 1990s, I wondered why anyone would want one when all they did was turn an expensive computer into an inexpensive TV set.

But things have changed and they're about to change even more. For one thing, it's now possible to record TV shows to your PC's hard drive, which lets you use a PC as if it were a TiVo to time shift your viewing. For another, there are now tuners that work with laptops, allowing you to watch TV while you're on the road.

High-definition TV is yet another breakthrough, making it possible to use a PC equipped with a tuner and an LCD computer monitor to watch HDTV. Finally, millions of people are about to get TV software on their PCs without even necessarily knowing it. Windows Vista Home Premium edition, which will be on most consumer PCs starting Jan. 30, will come with Windows Media Center, which is all the software you'll need to watch and record TV.

As a frequent traveler, I find the ability to equip a laptop with a tuner especially appealing, but until now that required carrying around a fairly bulky external adapter such as Hauppauge's WinTV-PVR2-USB, but Hauppauge has just come up with a new tuner that's just a bit bigger than a thumb drive. The $100 Win-TV-HVR-950 plugs directly into the USB drive of a laptop and desktop TV, providing you with the ability to watch and pause live TV and record shows to your PC's hard disk. It won't work with very old laptops. It requires a Windows PC with a USB 2.0 drive along with at least a 2.2 GHz P4 or 1.8 GHz Centrino processor and 64MB of graphics memory.

The device comes with a portable telescoping antenna that can be used from the road. You can also plug in a cable from a cable or satellite system. In addition to standard analog TV, it can also pick up digital HDTV signals off-the-air, though you can only get standard definition programs from cable. The software quickly scans for available channels in your area

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/16361287.htm


I like this part:

Finally, millions of people are about to get TV software on their PCs without even necessarily knowing it. Windows Vista Home Premium edition, which will be on most consumer PCs starting Jan. 30, will come with Windows Media Center, which is all the software you'll need to watch and record TV.

Having the TV software preloaded in Windows not only make it a lot easier to start using a TV tuner but it also promotes the whole concept. I am still on XP so I haven't tried it but I would love to know what error message you get if you try to see TV on a computer without WinTV. It could sound something like this:

This program requires a TV tuner. Check out Microsofts windows marketplace for the best deal on TV tuners

[David Randolph]

David, How is it? r u recording now?

No, not yet Terliso, they don't have Hauppage's products here in Portugal. I guess just in Spain. I searched for the item on www.tigerdirect.com but it's not available there either.

I guess I'll have to try to buy it at Hauppage's web store, but first I need to inquire the company to know if US and European technical specifications are the same (for example, they say "The Wireless MediaMVP uses 802.11G networks". I need to know if this is compatible with European standards - I'm afraid I'm totally ignorant on this).

One thing I'm not ignorant, at least not totally , is on fundamental analysis. As a matter of fact, now that I look, I see HAUP's gross margin declining, which shows growth hasn't been very healthy:



Probably the low gross margin is the most important fundamental problem with HAUP. But the 20% long term average revenue growth and the 57% below industry average Price to Sales Ratio probably compensate that.

According to Yahoo Finance, their main competitor is Nvidia 2.82B in Revenue They have a ton of products...I wonder how much $$$ they made from their home Entertainment unit?

http://www.nvidia.com/page/home_entertainment.html

I've read NVDA's profile and it doesn't look like a competitor to HAUP, their products seem like complementary (I wonder if this is the right expression to use in English). When I went to Fnac I saw other companies (European) selling exactly the same products as HAUP, but didn't get their name. I'll go there again to check the companies' names for future comparisons.

Michael's post gives more hope to this HAUP investment, as probably sales growth will increase even more going forward.

Technically the stock had a resistance level at $7.17, which now should act as support. It closed 2006 exactly at that level. Let's see what the first week of 2007 brings, I'll continue holding HAUP.

[Michael]

One thing I'm not ignorant, at least not totally , is on fundamental analysis. As a matter of fact, now that I look, I see HAUP's gross margin declining, which shows growth hasn't been very health.....

Probably the low gross margin is the most important fundamental problem with HAUP. But the 20% long term average revenue growth and the 57% below industry average Price to Sales Ratio probably compensate that.

Hmmm... revenue growth and gross profit margin is always a trade off. A good management team knows the right balance and I don't think Hauppauge got it wrong.

They grew revenues by 233% since 2002 and the gross margin decreased from 26.2% to 20.5%. The end result is that gross profit increased from 11 million USD to 20 million USD. Not bad for a company with a market cap of 69 million.

I guess I'll have to try to buy it at Hauppage's web store, but first I need to inquire the company to know if US and European technical specifications are the same (for example, they say "The Wireless MediaMVP uses 802.11G networks". I need to know if this is compatible with European standards - I'm afraid I'm totally ignorant on this).

Well here is the good news The WiFi spec is the same all over the world (802.11x) and there are more good news TV is much more complicated every region has its own spec. What works in US will not work in Europe so you better buy from Spain. Hauppauge is one of the few companies that has products that work in all regions.

Technically the stock had a resistance level at $7.17, which now should act as support. It closed 2006 exactly at that level. Let's see what the first week of 2007 brings, I'll continue holding HAUP.

7.17 seems to be key for this trade. Not only did it close at 7.17 in 2007 but 7.17 is also the high 2006 and then of course the most important it is the entrance level for 3SOF. To be honest I think you might have a good chance of getting a better entry point than 3SOF. I wouldn't hesitate to buy below 7.17 though. The Las Vegas Consumer Electronics Show is starting on Monday and HAUP will report earnings for their strongest quarter in February and I for sure would like to hold the shares over earnings 

[HANDBALLJIM]

NEWS OUT TODAY!!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070103/20070103005171.html?.v=1

[kpunarc]

it's 12:22pm est with HAUP @ -5.86%. i'm left with as good news comes out this morning...

[njshiva]

If it closes positive  then we might have a bullish hammer today. other wise I am going to move out of HAUP.

[la-onda]

I am out, I have the feeling that this could be the beginning of a market correction: I will post some charts later in the members corner

cheers
O.

[David Randolph]

You show in depth knowledge of HAUP's fundamentals Michael (as in every stock you own). I want to thank your analysis on the stock, it makes my work easier

it's 12:22pm est with HAUP @ -5.86%. i'm left with as good news comes out this morning...

The news wasn't "positive", it is somewhat insignificant. Many times stocks go down on good news and up on bad news, and that's a short term indication, but I don't think today's news was significant enough to cal the market action as a "sell on the good news".

The fact is the stock is at a medium term resistance level and it's still fighting with it. Longer term fundamentals always prevail, and fundamentals on HAUP are quite attractive.

Also, there are a number of positive catalysts going forward, which Michael has been posting about.

If it closes positive  then we might have a bullish hammer today. other wise I am going to move out of HAUP.

I guess you sold your shares njshiva, because the stock closed down almost 7%. You say: «if we have a bullish hammer I'll hold, if not I sell».

If you always apply that rule you'll never make a big long term profit on a stock, because no stock makes a long term bullish swing without having some bearish candlesticks in between. Or, you'll apply that rule now, but others in other circumstances? Candlesticks today, perhaps stochastic oscillator tomorrow? MACD over the next week? Or, maybe, a bit of Elliot Waves, how's that sound?

I'm not criticizing your decision, that would be like criticizing myself, because I've used the same strategies in the past. I wish you're wrong on HAUP (since I'm still holding the stock), but of course I desire your long term success as a trader.

I am out, I have the feeling that this could be the beginning of a market correction: I will post some charts later in the members corner

cheers
O.

Thanks for the charts Oliver I don't have that feeling at all, as you know. Perhaps you will help open my mind, but I'm quite bullish on this market going forward.

Going back to our main subject on this thread, HAUP, today's sell off didn't damage the technical picture at all, as you can see on the chart below. All moving averages point north, and the 10 is above the 50 and the 50 is above the 200, if you know what I mean.

I see today's fall as the stock pushing back and forward at the medium term resistance level, throwing as many weak hands out of the ship as possible, because only the strong and fundamentally backed hands deserve the stock's reward.

Some of you guys sold the stock, but I don't see any sound explanation for the selling decision. On the other hand, bulls have a strong case. Perhaps they're not seeing something, but they of course need to trust their analysis to make money over the long term.

My fundamental and technical analysis continues to say HAUP will go higher, much higher than current levels. I'll continue holding the stock.

[Michael]

Yesterdays action was disappointing but I am really not so concerned. There has been so much talk about this stock being pumped in December and dumped in January that I guess a lot of nervous investors jumped ship yesterday when the stock turned red in the first trading session of the year.

The news wasn't "positive", it is somewhat insignificant.

In fact the big question is if it is news at all. I posted a picture of HVR950 here on 3SOF on December 27: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1948.msg82495#msg82495 so it really was a non event unless the big news were broken here on 3stocksonfire 

I posted the picture because I was planning a long message about how awesome this product is. Unfortunately Hauppauge was a bit faster 

Still try to have a look at the size and design:



It will set you back only 99 USD and transform your laptop into a real media center. You can not only watch TV while on the move but also use your laptop as a PVR allowing you to record TV, time shifting, skip ads, stream your favorite channels over the internet. post video's on sites like youtubes etc. etc.

I guess the news released yesterday was that the product is now available and I think it will sell very well.

[njshiva]

If it closes positive  then we might have a bullish hammer today. other wise I am going to move out of HAUP.

I guess you sold your shares njshiva, because the stock closed down almost 7%. You say: «if we have a bullish hammer I'll hold, if not I sell».

If you always apply that rule you'll never make a big long term profit on a stock, because no stock makes a long term bullish swing without having some bearish candlesticks in between. Or, you'll apply that rule now, but others in other circumstances? Candlesticks today, perhaps stochastic oscillator tomorrow? MACD over the next week? Or, maybe, a bit of Elliot Waves, how's that sound?

I'm not criticizing your decision, that would be like criticizing myself, because I've used the same strategies in the past. I wish you're wrong on HAUP (since I'm still holding the stock), but of course I desire your long term success as a trader.

Applaude you David. I like those constructive criticisms.
I didnt get a chance to get out and now I hope you are right 
I dont see much damage done to the technicals so I am not that scared 

[David Randolph]

Thanks for the info on HAUP Michael

I'm glad you're still on board njshiva, the stock held the ascending trendline on close. Today that ascending trendline stands at $6.71 and there's a short term resistance at $6.95 as you can see on the chart below.

A close out of this small range, $6.71 - $6.95, will probably set the short term direction for the stock.

Considering the fundamentals, fiscal Q4 2006 was quite stronger than Q4 2005, and fiscal Q4 (it is the June - September quarter) is seasonally the weakest quarter for HAUP:

- Revenues were $22 M vs $15 M;
- EPS was $0.01 vs ($0.09)

So I expect fiscal Q1 2007 to also be much stronger than Q1 2006. Over that period HAUP had revenues of $25 M and EPS of $0.10.

We'll probably get a revenue number like $35 M to $37 M (it means a 46% jump from previous year's level, the same growth rate for fiscal Q4) for Q1 2007 (it has already ended, but not yet reported, of course). This will be, by far, the best quarterly revenue number in the company's history.

I'll be watching gross and net profit margins like a hawk. Between now and the quarterly report there's nothing else to do but to continue holding HAUP, in my opinion. A fundamental investor can't sell when he's expecting such good news in the near future. 

[shaker340]

I'm still on board also, I am glad that it is back above $7.

[Michael]

I'm still on board also, I am glad that it is back above $7.

It is nice to see that we are quite a crowd here and the best news is that we are not alone!

Let me introduce Deanna Brooks:



She looks as good as any of the models on Frederic's of Hollywood (David's new hang-out) and she has brain (as most Women have – just to avoid smiting from our female members  )

Now Deanna is a great investor. She won the Playboy 2006 Stock Picking contest with a 43.43% gain. Nice and one of her top 3 holdings were HAUP 

I am now on her official site (http://www.deannabrooks.com) trying to convince her to become the official 3SOF spokeswomen. (If DIET can have Suzanne Somers we can have Deanna Brooks  ). I am giving a very generous offer of a free premium membership. She is a bit reluctant but we are still talking 

Oh and by the way the stock is behaving very nice today. Still struggeling with the 3SOF resistance at 7.17