Analysis on Demand

[David Randolph]

The winners of today's "Analysis on Demand" contest were:

- HANS
- QCC
- TYL

I still have to cover STEC and BBC from yesterday's contest, I hope I can do these 5 tomorrow, let's see how productive I'll be.

Thanks

[realcoolhead]

7 PM NY Time is my dinner time!

But that's ok, take it easy David, I'd think the quality of your analysis depends on the freshness of you mind. 

[David Randolph]

STEC analysis:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-5532008685805142754&hl=en

[eggman11]

David,

If possible when you post the video analysis, could you include a quick paragraph with a brief summary of your overall opinion. Maybe even some more description in the subject line. Some people like myself may not be able to see the video until a much later after its posted (on my home computer)

Thanks

[David Randolph]

David,

If possible when you post the video analysis, could you include a quick paragraph with a brief summary of your overall opinion. Maybe even some more description in the subject line. Some people like myself may not be able to see the video until a much later after its posted (on my home computer)

Thanks

Yes, from now on I'll write the "General Overview" and the "Outlook" on the post.

[David Randolph]

The video analysis:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1959434691382203537&hl=en

General Overview:

- Technical analysis is bearish
- Numbers, especially the net profit margin, looks too good to be true
- AMEX letter and shareholder's lawsuits against the company for providing false information
- Revenue numbers are probably real, the stock can be more safe at a below average revenue multiple, say around $3

Final comment:

The stock will probably be up a lot on Monday (closed 14% higher in after hours) due to the following press releases Friday after the closing bell:

• Bodisen Biotech Receives Preliminary Determination From Amex
PrimeNewswire (Fri 4:46pm)

• Bodisen Biotech Provides Clarifying Information on Past Consulting Relationship With New York Global Group
PrimeNewswire (Fri 9:03pm)

I fear small Chinese companies with very high net profit margin numbers. Perhaps I'm wrong on this one, but been burned before. Since the chart says "sell" I don't trust the financials. Good luck to anyone holding, though.

[realcoolhead]

Totally agree, be very careful of micro-cap Chinese stocks, especially those got IPOed via shell companies in Amex.

Although it is improving, there is a lot of manipulation/cheating in the Chinese stock market. My brother has first-hand knowledge over there. I don't think by moving to US those "old habits" can be totally eliminated, especially for the tiny ones in Amex.

I am not proud of saying this because I came from China 14 years ago. But this is just the fact and if we go back 100 years the stock market in US was full of scams too. 

I fear small Chinese companies with very high net profit margin numbers. Perhaps I'm wrong on this one, but been burned before. Since the chart says "sell" I don't trust the financials. Good luck to anyone holding, though.

[David Randolph]

HANS analysis requested by basanlas:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=2477459565599926719&hl=en

General Overview:

- Technical analysis says HANS is stuck in a trading range
- Long term fundamental trends are outstanding. Net profit margin of 18% is awesome.
- Great stock but looks fairly valued now. Would consider it on a dip to the lower end of the trading range.

Long Term Outlook: Positive

[David Randolph]

Here's the video analysis for QCC requested by Terliso:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=1580140004511543256&hl=en

General Overview:

- Long term technical trend is bullish. Important resistance at $3.03.
- I don't know what this company does:
   - The balance sheet is odd;
   - The share count is rising a lot;
   - Gross margin is 80%, net margin is 70%;
   - QCC is a strange stock, I don't know what to think of it.

Outlook: Neutral

[David Randolph]

Here's the video analysis for TYL, requested by eggman11:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-3486553805641483552&hl=en

General Overview:

- TYL had a nice run over the last 18 months
- It has been weak lately and fundamental analysis says it looks overvalued, with lower than average growth rates and margins and higher than average revenue and earnings multiples.

Outlook: Short term negative, long term positive but not much growth potential.

(I have to put the micro further away from my mouth, or you'll hear me breathing more than talking  )

[David Randolph]

Tomorrow I'll analyze 3 stocks, one of them is PICO because I had a very compelling personal request, the other two I expect you to tell me.

The first two replies I get with stock symbols will see those stocks covered tomorrow.

Thanks for your participation

[elliemae]

igt, please, thank you

[kslifka]

ptt

[David Randolph]

Ok, today's winners were PICO, IGT and PTT.

Thanks for your participation, see you tomorrow

[David Randolph]

Here's the video analysis for IGT as requested by elliemae:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=5117016734461517649&hl=en


General Overview:

- Technical Analysis is bullish
- IGT's fundamentals are awesome but that seems priced in
- Long term estimates show a 9.86% average annual share price increase going forward
- I look for at least 16% long term average growth, which is double the general market rate.

Long Term Outlook: Positive