JMBA

[kds99]

what do you guys think about this stock?  I just got in for a small position.

[cdrankwalter]

1100 shares here, no debt, tremendous growth oppurtunity, they have a target of 5000 stores and have not even  gone overseas yet, in 2-3 years this price will be looked on as a steall

[nullzero]

Yeah I like Jamba Juice they got nice drinks and a good formula for a business. This can be the next starbucks so far managment has been doing a great job. Looks like a good buy in the low 10s.

[setravis]

Jamba's New CEO Providing a Boost.......

Below is an abbreviated version of my latest analysis of JMBA.

Current Valuation & Consensus View:
A recent share price of $0.47 implies an enterprise value (equity + debt – unrestricted cash) of $25 million – approximately 0.6x store-level EBITDA and about 3.3x adjusted EBITDA, based on my 2009 forecast. For comparison, PEET trades at about 7.9x EBITDA, and SBUX trades at approximately 7.6x EBITDA. QSR concepts SONC and JACK trade at about 6.7x EBITDA.

The common viewpoint seems to be that: (a) JMBA's business model is not viable, and (b) the company will run out of money before management has time to figure things out.

JMBA's business model may have been untenable a year ago. However, over the last several months, the company has reduced its costs (store labor and SG&A in particular), which should enable the company to generate cash flow at today's lower AUVs (average unit volumes).

Meanwhile, the company's new CEO, James White, is accelerating JMBA's transition from a smoothie shop chain to a healthy lifestyle brand. Soon, blended drinks will shift from being the main focus to being a component of an expanded menu. This menu will be designed to deliver what today's consumer wants – great tasting, healthy, convenient, fun food at an affordable price.

I believe that with reduced costs, the store model now works reasonably well for mult-unit operators of traditional locations, and for operators of high-traffic "non-traditional" locations such as airports. As the company expands its menu and AUVs grow, the store economics should work better and attract more new franchisee capital (store model estimates are in the expanded analysis).

Financial Projections:
Below is a summary of the company's financial performance in 2007 and 2008, as well as a forecast for 2009. In the first table, I show annual sales dropping 7.5% to $317 million in 2009. I assume that food costs average 26.5% of sales versus management's target of 26%, and labor costs average 36% of sales versus a target of 34%. The second table shows a 2009 quarterly forecast, and assumptions for same-store sales. It also shows the resulting trailing 12-month store-level EBITDA and projected unrestricted cash levels.

These projections show JMBA with a seasonal loss in Q1 but significant positive cash flow in Q2 and Q3 this year. Store-level EBITDA remains comfortably above the $35 million covenant level. Unrestricted cash rises to roughly the amount of the company's outstanding debt in Q3 of this year, then falls to $14.7 million in Q4 after seasonal losses. Even if comps are roughly 5% down in 2010, the company should still generate enough additional cash to repay the debt when it comes due in September 2010 (although it would be tight). Successful implementation of the company's current growth initiatives should provide substantial upside beyond this scenario.

Price Targets and Potential Catalysts
It will be hard to get excited about Q1 results, but a performance in Q2 like that projected above should demonstrate that the company is on the road to recovery. This could be a catalyst for a significant improvement in the company's valuation. Growth in enterprise value to 1.2x '09 projected store-level EBITDA, or 6.7x '09 projected EBITDA, would bring the equity market cap to $55 million, or $0.95 per share. This is my six-month price target. My 12-month target is $1.30 per share (unchanged from December).

Another potential catalyst would be coverage by a major sell-side analyst. Recent investments in JMBA by PE group CIC Advantage and value fund manager Royce & Associates may help renew interest in the analyst community. A restaurant industry analyst from Piper Jaffray was on the last earnings call. I would not be surprised to see them pick up coverage again once the company demonstrates more progress on its turnaround.

An increase in market cap could create an virtuous upward cycle. Currently, investors who want to own less than 5% of the company are capped at an investment of just over $1 million, which is just not meaningful for many institutional investors. As JMBA's valuation improves, the stock will become more relevant.

[setravis]

On radar.......

The market's valuation of Jamba Inc. (JMBA) seems to reflect a consensus view that this chain of 729 smoothie stores will not survive. After a review of JMBA's fourth quarter and full-year 2008 results, and several calls with management, I disagree. I predict that this company will not only survive but thrive.

Nearing "The Golden Cross"

52wk Range: 0.35 - 2.76
Volume: 1,128,979
Avg Vol (3m): 219,684

Technicals
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
17.42%above 13-day MA
50.37%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 95 

Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on May 28

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $62.89 
P/E Ratio: 7.41 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 05/28/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Sell

[setravis]

/C O R R E C T I O N -- Jamba Juice/
On Thursday May 21, 2009, 8:50 pm EDT


In the news release, "Jamba Juice Delivers on New Licensing Strategy With Addition of Oregon Ice Cream and Think Wow Toys as New Licensing Alliances," issued 21-May-2009 by Jamba Juice over PR Newswire, please be advised that the forward-looking statement following the "About Jamba, Inc." paragraph was inadvertently omitted. The complete, corrected release follows with the addition of the forward-looking statement at the end of the release:

Jamba Juice Delivers on New Licensing Strategy With Addition of Oregon Ice Cream and Think Wow Toys as New Licensing Alliances

"Deals Add Momentum to Recently Announced Program to Extend Jamba Brand and Maximize Revenues with Development of Jamba Juice Retail Offerings"

EMERYVILLE, Calif., May 21 /PRNewswire/ -- Jamba Juice, the leading provider of healthy, fun and on-the-go food, snacks and beverages, announced today the addition of Oregon Ice Cream and Think Wow Toys as new licensees. Supporting Jamba Juice's recently announced "BLEND" revitalization plan, these new alliances add momentum to the company's licensing growth strategy to extend the Jamba brand and maximize revenues with the introduction of innovative, new products in relevant, consumer packaged goods (CPG) categories. These alliances build upon the existing relationship that Jamba Juice has with Nestle to create Jamba-branded retail products. Jamba Juice continues to work closely with Nestle to optimize the companies' Ready-to-Drink beverage offering with the goal of re-entering the market with a stronger retail proposition that is well positioned for future success.

"We see a strong marketplace potential for Jamba-branded retail products as well as an abundance of additional opportunities to leverage the overall health and wellness trend to create new revenue opportunities," said Susan Shields, vice president, consumer products, licensing & growth initiatives at Jamba Juice. "We have made significant progress against our goal of introducing great tasting, healthy, Jamba products to store shelves nationwide and are pleased to add Oregon Ice Cream and Think Wow Toys to our CPG initiative. Both of these companies are standouts in their industries for the level of quality they bring to their products and processes, and we look forward to working with them to expand the Jamba Juice experience to a broader group of consumers."

Designed to support Jamba Juice's mission of inspiring and simplifying healthy living, the alliances are the first of several planned initiatives with discussions underway with additional companies in other key retail categories. The licensing agreement with Oregon Ice Cream, a leader in natural foods grocery products, will involve the introduction of a line of innovative, better-for-you frozen novelties. Think Wow Toys, a developer of quality, innovative products for kids' food activities, will create a fun, Jamba-branded blender for kids, EZ-2 Make!(TM) Jamba Juice Smoothie and Ice Pop Maker, allowing them to prepare their own smoothies and ice pops at home.

"We are excited to align with Jamba Juice in creating a first of its kind better-for-you, dessert product for grocery retailers," said Tom Gleason, president of Oregon Ice Cream. "With its great reputation and devoted following and fantastic products, Jamba Juice is perfectly positioned to extend the Jamba brand to shoppers everywhere."

"Jamba Juice is a recognized leader in the world of healthy eating and a huge favorite of kids across the country," said Scott Bachrach, President of Think Wow Toys. "It's an ideal pairing for us and we think the new blender product will be a hit with parents and children alike."

"Since announcing the BLEND plan earlier this year we have made significant strides in delivering on several of the plan's key elements and these new licensing alliances, along with our ongoing collaboration with Nestle, will play a key role in helping us to achieve our strategic objectives," said James D. White, President and CEO of Jamba Juice.

Launched in January 2009, Jamba Juice's "BLEND" plan, serves as the blueprint for the company's strategic priorities, as the management team seeks to revitalize the company for future growth and to deliver long term stockholder value.

About Oregon Ice Cream

Oregon Ice Cream is a U.S. leader in natural foods grocery products and currently provides certified organic and natural ice cream to retailers in all 50 states through its Julie's Organic and Alden's Ice Cream brands as well through its private label manufacturing program for national brands including Albertson's, Kroger, Safeway, Dryers/Edy's, Ciao Bella Gelato and Good Karma Rice. Based in Eugene Oregon, the company is the largest privately-owned and operated ice cream manufacturer in the Northwest, annually producing over 12 million gallons of ice cream.

About Think Wow Toys

Think Wow Toys, a division of WowWee U.S.A., Inc., is a children's entertainment company based in New York City. Founded in 2006 by toy industry veteran, Scott Bachrach, and acquired by WowWee in 2008, Think Wow Toys works with the world's leading children's entertainment brands to create cutting edge, licensed products for boys and girls ages 4-12.

About Jamba, Inc.

Jamba, Inc. (Nasdaq: JMBA - News; Nasdaq: JMBAU - News; Nasdaq: JMBAW - News) is a holding company and through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Jamba Juice Company, owns and franchises JAMBA JUICE® stores. JAMBA JUICE is the leading blender of fruit and other naturally healthy ingredients. Founded in 1990, Jamba strives to inspire and simplify healthy living for its customers and employees. As of May 12, 2009, JAMBA JUICE had 733 stores. For the nearest location or a complete menu including our new oatmeal made with organic, steel cut oats and served with fruit and brown sugar crumble, visit the JAMBA JUICE website at www.jamba.com or call 1-866-4R-FRUIT.

Forward-looking Statements

This press release (including information incorporated or deemed incorporated by reference herein) contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are those involving future events and future results that are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts, and projects as well as the current beliefs and assumptions of our management. Words such as "outlook", "believes", "expects", "appears", "may", "will", "should", "anticipates", or the negative thereof or comparable terminology, are intended to identify such forward looking statements. Any statement that is not a historical fact, including estimates, projections, future trends and the outcome of events that have not yet occurred, is a forward-looking statement. Forward-looking statements are only predictions and are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore actual results may differ materially and adversely from those expressed in any forward-looking statements. Factors that might cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, those discussed under the section entitled "Risk Factors" in our reports filed with the SEC. Many of such factors relate to events and circumstances that are beyond our control. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. The Company does not assume any obligation to update the information contained in this press release.

[setravis]

updated chart look...

[setravis]

updated chart look...