Session of 01/31/2007

[David Randolph]

Hi, David

Any comment on Zica, thanks

After a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from its previous rally, ZICA is attempting to start a move to retest those highs at $2.85.

Let's see what fundamental analysis says about the stock:

- Technology company in the wireless space with $95 M of market cap;
- Balance sheet is weak with cash levels declining and a current ratio of just 1.4;
- Revenue trends don't show any growth;
- Losing about $2.8 M a quarter;
- The stock was up a lot in December 22 and 23, due to the following news:

• Zi Corporation Launches Qix with T-Mobile in the UK
Market Wire (Fri, Dec 22)

The press release doesn't provide any financial details. I don't think the news is enough to turn fundamental trends around, and ZICA will need to dilute shareholder's value due to short term liquidity problems (their cash on hand isn't enough to sustain the losses of just one quarter, so they will sell shares through a PIPE placement or in the open market).

Therefore, my outlook on ZICA is unfortunately negative.

[WallStreetnBio]

XIDE looks like another EVCC...seems like its full of hot air. I'm going to short it and see what happens over night.

[David Randolph]

OMCL on fire!

Yep, OMCL breaking out to a new 52 week high today, let me just see the market cap on this one ... $600 M, so above our maximum allowed level of $500 M market cap, as you can read on the FAQ.

On this thread you called XIDE a micro cap, and that is a $413 M market cap. I don't consider that to be a micro cap.

You're really not used to play small caps, are you nullzero? Is that because you prefer stocks which you can play using margin?

Thanks

By the way, let me see what we have from the fundamentals on OMCL:

- $600 M market cap servicing health care providers;
- Balance sheet is ok;
- Nice revenue trend. Revenue multiple is about 4, and just 1.58 for the industry average;
- Forward earnings multiple is 29, compared to the industry average of 22 (trailing earnings here);
- Not all that much interesting, after all, it is a widely followed stock.

Thanks anyway, keep them coming

[David Randolph]

XIDE looks like another EVCC...seems like its full of hot air. I'm going to short it and see what happens over night.

Totally different prodigykid6. XIDE is trading at a fraction of multi billion dollar revenues, EVCC went as high as $300 M market cap with zero revenues.

EVCC is a pump and dump scheme. XIDE is a turnaround story. EVCC will go down to pennies. XIDE will go up, maybe several bags.

Anyway, good luck with your short term trading, but shorting is a losers game over the long term. Even more so when you go out there and short a stock just because it has been up a lot, going against the trend, your best friend in the market place. 

[boatguy]

XIDE looks like another EVCC...seems like its full of hot air. I'm going to short it and see what happens over night.

Good Luck with this short

[David Randolph]

Good Morning .. anyone looking at FRTP on this pullback?

I was a big fan of FRPT.OB when it was trading around $5 and it was still an OTCBB traded stock. I wrote an article on it called: "FRPT: a billion dollar company?» when it was a less than $300 M market cap company (it was on a website that now is not working right, www.otcbbcoverage.com, Ramsburg needs to fix it to access those articles).

Now it is a $1.22 B market cap, so above our maximum allowed level of $500 M market cap, as you can read on the FAQ.

Anyway, in just a quick fundamental review, I really don't like it now, losing revenue momentum and barely profitable.

But good luck

[nica33]

Dave, what is your thought for JADE, down 5 %.  All chinese stocks are awful today (China bubble concerns).  Could be an oportunity to buy it???

Thanks!

[David Randolph]

David,

My apologies.  EFSF (Efood Services).

Aim

Well, not on fire today, since it is down 8.5%. The long term trend on the chart below is bearish. Let's see what the fundamentals say:

- Market cap is $54 M and just 1 employee ;
- Revenues are incipient, just $197 K in Q3 2006. Net Income is negative by an average of more than $1 M a quarter;
- I guess I could find even more overvalued stocks, but it would be somewhat hard.

Unfortunately my outlook on EFSF.OB is negative, can be wrong though, as anything can happen in the market and fundamentals keep changing, good luck

[marlene]

hello david...........

take a look at "PLRO", i can´t find any income statement, but i think it´s a very intersting stock..........................

good work...........................


marlene

[TraderStar]

Good Morning .. anyone looking at FRTP on this pullback?

I was a big fan of FRPT.OB when it was trading around $5 and it was still an OTCBB traded stock. I wrote an article on it called: "FRPT: a billion dollar company?» when it was a less than $300 M market cap company (it was on a website that now is not working right, www.otcbbcoverage.com, Ramsburg needs to fix it to access those articles).

Anyway, in just a quick fundamental review, I really don't like it now, losing revenue momentum and barely profitable.

Oh .. you're the one who wrote that article!  Actually otcbbcoverage website is still accessible but hardly anyone posts anymore.

Thanks for that info .. I have some small shares in FRPT on the pullback & will take profits or cut losses quickly.  On Yahoo boards, there is a lot of enthusiasm about it, but sounds like this is not a good longer term play.  I'm just hoping for a quick pop to the low 20's again

[David Randolph]

David! What do you think about YPNT? Nice chart

Well, just $100 K traded today, and the chart ... well, let's say I'm neutral from a technical standpoint.

Fundamentally speaking:

- $51 M market cap, cool business concept of online yellow pages, so it is a competitor to a stock I recently covered, which is LOCM (www.local.com);
- Nice balance sheet, $7 M in cash and current ratio of 4.5;
- No revenue growth over the last 3 years and lost $3 M in Q3 2006.

Overall, I think it's nothing special, but thanks for the suggestion

[David Randolph]

Oh .. you're the one who wrote that article!  Actually otcbbcoverage website is still accessible but hardly anyone posts anymore.

Thanks for that info .. I have some small shares in FRPT on the pullback & will take profits or cut losses quickly.  On Yahoo boards, there is a lot of enthusiasm about it, but sounds like this is not a good longer term play.  I'm just hoping for a quick pop to the low 20's again

Yes, www.otcbbcoverage.com is mine (and Ramsburg's), but that project is in standby now. I wrote that article under my real name, which is Cesar Borja, David Randolph is just a nick name (I told you I was a foreigner).

As for FRPT, I was surprised to look at their financials now, the Price to sales ratio is about 6 and the trailing PER is 200. Analysts expect revenues and earnings to grow a lot in 2007, but still, not enough to justify the current market cap of more than $1.2 B in my opinion.

Good luck on that pop

[nullzero]

OMCL on fire!

Yep, OMCL breaking out to a new 52 week high today, let me just see the market cap on this one ... $600 M, so above our maximum allowed level of $500 M market cap, as you can read on the FAQ.

On this thread you called XIDE a micro cap, and that is a $413 M market cap. I don't consider that to be a micro cap.

You're really not used to play small caps, are you nullzero? Is that because you prefer stocks which you can play using margin?

Thanks

By the way, let me see what we have from the fundamentals on OMCL:

- $600 M market cap servicing health care providers;
- Balance sheet is ok;
- Nice revenue trend. Revenue multiple is about 4, and just 1.58 for the industry average;
- Forward earnings multiple is 29, compared to the industry average of 22 (trailing earnings here);
- Not all that much interesting, after all, it is a widely followed stock.

Thanks anyway, keep them coming

I usually dont trade many small caps. Sorry again David I need to read over the FAQ again. I usually play around with medium-large cap stocks I do use margin a lot. I thought it was 600 million cap but will make sure I pick only ones under 500million.

[cramercramer]

OTD on fire with news

[David Randolph]

Hi David!  I'm not sure.  I guess you analyzed TGX.  Which is the link?

Thanks!

TGX, what a run, certainly on fire

Some fundamental considerations:

- Market cap of $150 M, a Medical Appliances & Equipment company;
- Balance sheet: very strong !
- Revenue trend: positive and accelerating;
- EPS of $0.11 in Q4, going up from $0.05 in Q3. But that was because of a special tax gain of $1.8 M, otherwise EPS would have been $0.05, the same as in Q3.
- Annualize $0.05 EPS and get EPS of $0.20 for a full year. PER is about 24, and the industry average is 38.

TGX looks undervalued here, it can go up 60 or 70% more just to be valued in line with its industry.