Session of 02/06/2007

[David Randolph]

Got back home just in time to open this ... I'm not planning to sell any of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio holdings, which are CPNE.OB, RDCM and ETLT.OB, at least, not for now.

But I'm planning to cover about 20 new stocks suggested by you today, so please, bring them in.

Thanks for your participation

[2bun]

gm David,could you have a look at PFSW. Moved out of the low .90's the last couple days,now 1.05 and was around 1.40 a couple weeks ago.Thanks

[la-onda]

hi david, please check OPBL !!
fyi:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7229.msg87337#new


cheers
Oliver 

[guitarman]

Hi David
Got a newsletter I like with P.TO (Railpower Technologies) recommended.
They're supposed to report a huge backlog of orders soon.
They make eco-friendlier locomotives.
I am exposed to this industry and know that most locomotives use engines that are 20 - 50 years old and are due for replacement due to fuel efficiency and emissions regulations. There are thousands of them out there.
Best
GMan

[dcrlin]

NUAN for long term hold?

Thanks.

[David Randolph]

gm David,could you have a look at PFSW. Moved out of the low .90's the last couple days,now 1.05 and was around 1.40 a couple weeks ago.Thanks

Technically the stock had a nice advance phase in December 06, but then it gave back about 61.8% of that move. Elliot Wave theorists could call this correction wave 2, but 61.8% perhaps it is too much of a correction, it might mean the trend has changed, from bullish to bearish.

The chart is at a critical point now, PFSW should surpass the descending trendline, currently standing at $1.10, to be more bullish.

Fundamentally:

- Market cap is $48 M. A provider of outsourcing services including web-site development and hosting, order management, call center, product kitting and assembly, order fulfillment, warehousing, credit and collections, technology solutions and more.
- Balance sheet is ok, with $23 M in working capital
- Revenue trend is positive ... wow, the one analyst covering the stock is expecting $432 M in revenues for full fiscal 2006. The company had sales of $313 M in the nine months through September 2006, so, it's entirely possible. The sales multiple is about 0.11, which seems very low.

The more I study stocks the more I see that EPS talks, and all other numbers walk (except the current ratio, very important). And when it concerns to EPS , the company lost ($0.19) per share over the latest 3 reported quarters.

Let me see what was the catalyst for the bull trend in December ... oh oh oh, it seems we found another SYX !!! The catalyst was the wholly owned subsidiary of PFSW, www.ecost.com

I don't have to see much more, love this stock, trading at a fraction of revenues and in my view about to turn profitable. It reminds me of SYX, but growing from a much smaller base.

Thanks for the suggestion

[David Randolph]

Hi David
Got a newsletter I like with P.TO (Railpower Technologies) recommended.
They're supposed to report a huge backlog of orders soon.
They make eco-friendlier locomotives.
I am exposed to this industry and know that most locomotives use engines that are 20 - 50 years old and are due for replacement due to fuel efficiency and emissions regulations. There are thousands of them out there.
Best
GMan

The story looks interesting Guitarman, but is that stock traded on the NYSE, Nasdaq, AMEX or OTCBB? We can only buy/cover stocks traded in these American exchanges, as you can read on the FAQ section, sorry

[nullzero]

ELON

[David Randolph]

hi david, please check OPBL !!
fyi:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7229.msg87337#new

cheers
Oliver 

OPBL.OB is stock #28 on our Stocks Covered List

It had an incredible run, but now it is a $314 M market cap company with just $10.9 M in sales over the last four quarters. It will report earnings today after the close, I guess it will tank after earnings, because expectations are too high, and revenues and profits are too little.

But good luck

[cathleen]

David,   How about Vsty?    Cathleen

[boatguy]

TKO getting some attention

[David Randolph]

NUAN for long term hold?

Thanks.

Hi dcrlin, thanks for the suggestion, but NUAN is already a $2 B plus market cap company, so not what we're looking for on this message board, as you can read on the FAQ section.

Anyway, the stock is opening with a big gap up due to the earnings release yesterday after the close ... the company reported a loss of 1 cent per share on a GAAP basis (the one we can use for comparisons).

This is one of those stocks that probably is about to turn profitable, and when it does, investor's will probably be disappointed, because EPS will be below a dime each quarter, so the earnings multiple is too high.

I don't like it at this point for the long term, but ... perhaps I'm wrong. Good luck

[tokyopua]

LTS trying to break to a 3 year high

[2bun]

SBEI,moved from mid.60's to mid .90's in one day!Something is up here,low volume though.9 mill float

[David Randolph]

ELON

Technically the trend on ELON is still bearish, despite today's very strong rally. I wonder if it will be able to breakout above the descending trendline you can see on the chart below, but I wouldn't bet on that, because usually trends persist.

Fundamentally:

- Market cap is $318 M. Develops, markets and supports hardware and software products and services that allow everyday devices, such as appliances, thermostats, air conditioners, electricity meters and lighting systems, to communicate with one another and across the Internet.
- Balance sheet is very, very strong, with a current ratio of 5.2 and $54 M in cash.
- Revenue trends are ... well, revenues are declining on a yearly basis since 2002, which seems odd given the sector the company is involved.

Results were out today, they lost $6.5 M, or 17 cents per share in the 4th quarter, but that was better than expected, so the stock is rallying. They say on the press release that they expect to be profitable in the 4th quarter of 2007. Revenues are declining because they're changing the business model.

Well, I guess you'll have opportunities to buy the stock lower than today, between now and the 4th quarter of 2007, because the fact is that revenues are shrinking and losses are growing, so I don't see people holding the stock with strong hands.