Daytrading with Consensus

[Ares]

Recharted UYG and found something that looks interesting.

The yellow larger descending channel had a perfect hit at 14.08 (the rtl).

The 14.08 low may also be the Wolfewave #5 fakeout (blue line).

Looking at it from the perspective of the red descending channel, the 14.08 looks to be an FTT ( a failure to traverse towards its rtl [right trend line]).

Time to look for point 3?

The weekly macd histogram (from divergence report) showed a weekly buy signal on XLF.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2945369

Inthemoneystocks.com is wating for a pullback according to its most recent video.
http://inthemoneystocks.com/Day_Trading_Archive_and_Vid.html

Mojo is waiting for a pullback too on his youtube video.
http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=ItZXCaUZhmw

Hmmm...  more consensus on bullishness?

[Ares]

Here's an hourly chart of UYG.

What pattern do you see?

[Ares]

Here's my most recent annotation of UYG's chart that I also recently posted at the Elite Trader message board.

I was not sure if I drew the channels correctly so I posted it on Spydertrader's journal called Iterative refinement (hoping to get more input from traders that mainly trade with channels).

I'm currently working on the 5 minute chart.

[Ares]

Here are the daily, hourly, and 5 minute charts of UYG.

[Ares]

TD update:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 22.17, open

SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 135.58, sold at 141.14 (sold too soon).

I went long SKF when the blue line of UYG (which I percieved as a neck line of a head and shoulder pattern) was broken.

I tried to calculate a possible measured move of the pattern.

left neck line = 18.96
head             =  24.79
difference      = 5.83 (not sure where to add this).

I came up with 3 different totals from the break of the blue line.

14.43
14.32
14.03

It makes me wonder if it will go sideways on the yellow line or is it going to continue down.

If it continues down, do I add the 5.83 to the break at the yellow line?

[Ares]

Here's a close up of UYG's hourly chart.

The 14.03 hourly chart calculation seems pretty close to the 14.08 low - going for a double bottom on the daily chart?

These are just speculations going through my mind - anything could happen.

Do your own due diligence.

I'm still trying to learn how to chart - while making some money.

[Ares]

Cindy, here is what I see as a bull flag on the 5 minute chart of UYG.

I must like art. lol

However, things could change anytime. do your own due diligence and good luck.

[Ares]

TD update:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 22.17, open
#20 at 19.40, open

SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open (bought it when UYG stalled)

Being a holder of SKF, it feels like I made a mistake buying it at 137.57 and wished I didn't.
Now, I'm just hoping that it goes above my buy price.

If I was trading SKF like before (not the lot method), I would have placed a stop loss or will be waiting for a bounce to cut my loss.

If that's how I feel going long SKF, I wonder how the traders that went short UYG feel.

Should I be selling my UYG soon and buy at the dip or should I hold on to it a little longer?

Hmmm... I'll have to make a decision a little later.

Wonder what's in store for today.

[Ares]

TD update:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 22.17, open
#20 at 19.40, sold at 22.41

SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open

Decided to sell some UYG at 22.41 yesterday from 19.40.

[Ares]

If that is a 5 day/5 minute cup and handle on the UYG, what is the measured move target?

Not sure if this is the correct calculation:

20.63 - high
18.50 - low
2.13   -difference
22.76 - target?

21.62 - high
18.50 - low
3.12   - difference
24.74 - target?

24.74 seems pretty close to the 24.79 swing high.

Anyway, let's see how it turns out today.

[Ares]

Turdtrader,

Here's my annotation of the weekly chart of UYG.

Copy of what I posted at the yahoo message board for future referrence:

Turd,

I was trying to sleep but got up to check where price is and saw your post.

Looking at a weekly chart:
I drew 5 descending trendlines.

UYG recently went above the 5th descending trendline (pink) and seemed to have tested it.

The 8ema and 9sma is still being challenged by price as I type right now (currently at 22.15).

The red descending trendline seems to coincide with the previous high of 24.79.

This channel seemed to have a failure of price travelling from the left trend line towards its right trend line)
I'm referring to the 14.08 low with what seems to be a momentum low (big volume outside an expanded bollinger band on the daily chart)

Just above that is the weekly swing low of 27.31.

Next weekly swing high is around 37.22 with the weekly sma currently at 37.76 (this seems to coincide with the yellow descending trendline where its right trendline seemed to have a perfect hit at 14.08)

ty again for the links you provided.

Good luck

43.56/43.61

51.29 weekly swing low seems to coincide with the blue line (what I think is a Wolfewave target but may not be a valid Wolfewave).

What's been interesting is watching the tape (time and sales).

These recent days, I've been seeing block trades on the green while the trend is up from the open).

This morning, inspite of that job numbers - it felt like it was gonna go up because of that cup and handle pattern on the 5 day/5 minute chart.

Also, shortly after the open, I saw block trades again on the green - sure enough - price went up.

At the break of that yellow descending trendline, it looked like UYG was gonna fly.

Shortly after I saw a block trade printed on the red (which I alerted the chat room).

Soon after price went down.

Who knows, maybe best to just follow (shadow) the block trade (AX)?

Good luck in whatever you decide to do.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Attached a 5 minute chart annotation of UYG to show the 22.34 break of the yellow line which shortly after was followed by a block print on the red.

I haven't updated this chart yet since I took a nap.

Will update later.

[Ares]

What pattern do you see?

[Ares]

Thanks Setravis for your "Anatomy of a Cup-with-Handle Pattern" thread.

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5933.0

I remembered scanning through the technical analysis forum before and read a little bit about the cup and handle pattern.

I decided to take a look at it again today.

I did  not get a chance to read the analysis in more detail yet (just tried to copy the labels on Setravis' picture of the cup with handle).

I'll try to read the analysis later today.

So far, the hourly chart of UYG seems to have a lot of similarities with the picture.

(I didn't get a chance to label everything yet.)

Here's what I have so far:

[Ares]

After reading a little more on Setravis' anatomy of a cup with handle, it seems it applied more on daily charts.

I wonder if it works on the hourly chart too.

Anyway, this is what I came up with:

22.79 = right peak
18.50 = bottom of cup
4.29   = difference

If there's a breakout above 22.79 on volume, the target should be:

22.79+4.29 = 27.08?

[Ares]

I would like to learn more about the cup and handle pattern.

Looking at a the 2 day/ 5 minute chart of UYG, these are the targets I calculated for what seems a smaller cup and handle within the bigger one:

21.64 = Right cup's high
20.79 = Cup's low
00.85 = Difference

22.49 = target from right cup's high
22.32 = from low of breakout candle?

The larger cup target of 27.08 still looks to be in play.

I'm still learning and am looking forward to your comments.