Daytrading with Consensus

[Ares]

Update:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 22.17, open


SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open
#3 at 122.72, open ( traded from trade freedom account)

Looks like my "inventory" in SKF is starting to grow already. 

I decided to use my Trade Freedom account to trade some SKF to be able to participate in the after hours action.


Changed the TD update to just update.

I'm looking forward to learn more while making some money. 

Thanks again to all who have contributed in my "journey".

[Ares]

Here's how the Weekly chart of UYG looks so far:

[rickjust]

hi ares,
i don't understand . if you have all those long positions open on uyg and the weekly chart hasn't looked like turning bullish at all and now you are hedging with the skf how do you make any money? you have to hope the skf goes up but that puts uyg underwater and visa versa.
why not hedge with a completely different index or a strong stock in a strong sector like biotech, or short a weak sector? it seems to me you are pulling on both sides of the rope against yourself.

[BigSully1]

Ares, I'm really baffled trying to understand your UYG/SKF endeavour.

I can understand that you are only "realizing" profits, but it seems to me that you are also gaining an ever-growing inventory of much bigger unrealized losses. Right or wrong? Also with you now accumulating SKF "inventory", you have effectively neutralized 3 of your UYG positions - er kind of.

Maybe I'm real dense and missing something, but with the ETF management fees, trading commissions, etc., I don't see how you can possibly ever come out on this kind of strategy.

Also since these are 2X inverse funds and are designed to only approximate 2X (DAILY) inverse, not weekly nor monthly, and with the effects of compounding, I would think the UYG/SKF charts would become skewed beyond much predictability. Seems to me that UYG/SKF chart reflects the "effect" and not the "cause" and therefore the $DJUSFN chart, or I guess the XLF chart in your case, since you try to rely on more immediate insight, would be a more reliable predictor of future movement, IMO.

I hope this works out for you somehow Ares, I just cannot imagine how.

[Ares]

BigSully,

I hope it works out too.

So far, my goal is to balance out the UYG and SKF ( since UYG has more than SKF).

I plan to widen the spread of SKF and trade UYG more often.

[Ares]

CPST looks interesting (saw it from Setravis' anatomy of cup with handle thread).

I would like to observe this stock - who knows I may end up trading it.

CPST already created 4 descending trendlines.

It had an unusual volume at 2.72 ( near the 50.% retracement and the lowest linear regression line).

When will it break above the 4th (so far, the steepest) descending trendline.

Will it still create a double bottom or will it go for the 200 sma?

[Ares]

From this CPST chart's perspective,

50% at 2.60 seems to coincide with the green linear regression line of the previous chart.

Not sure, but there may be a bullish wolfewave forming (blue target line).

If 4.42 is taken out on volume, target is 8.008?

[Ares]

Here's an hourly chart of CPST:

The Fibonacci extension at 78.6% seems to be pointing at 2.60 too.

However, If price breaks below 2.72, isn't that a break down?

Maybe a bounce play?

[Ares]

CPST may have gone through its c move already too.

On the daily chart alone, there could be different patterns seen depending on the time horizon of the trader ( 3 month, 1year, 5 year, etc.).

There's also the different intraday timeframes ( clockwatching, 1 minute, 5, minute, hourly,etc.)

I guess it all depends on the trader's perspective ( thus there are bulls and bears).

It would be interesting to see how this unfolds.

Good luck on the timeframe you trade.

[Ares]

One more on CPST.

The blue uptrending rtl (right trend line) seem to coincide with the hourly fibonacci extension at 2.80.

[Ares]

Update:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 22.17, open
#20 at 21.25, open

SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open
#3 at 122.72, open

Bought UYG yesterday at 21.25.

I ended up going in with momentum instead of bottom fishing.

I'll try to remember to stick with the bottom fishing strategy.

[Ares]

Update:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 22.17, open
#20 at 21.25, sold at 22.88

SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open
#3 at 122.72, open

Sold UYG at 22.88, from 21.25 (too early).

[Ares]

Will UYG continue it's new 5 minute uptrend channel (that broke above the handle of the cup).

Yesterday, it closed above the daily 50 sma.

However, the red descending ltl(red trendline is just above it.

Will it break above it or will it fail to break out?

The smaller cup and hadle targets got made recently.

Will the larger cup and handle target of 27.08 get made soon too?

These are just speculations.

Let us see how it turns out today.

gl

[Ares]

Ares, I'm really baffled trying to understand your UYG/SKF endeavour.

I can understand that you are only "realizing" profits, but it seems to me that you are also gaining an ever-growing inventory of much bigger unrealized losses. Right or wrong? Also with you now accumulating SKF "inventory", you have effectively neutralized 3 of your UYG positions - er kind of.

Maybe I'm real dense and missing something, but with the ETF management fees, trading commissions, etc., I don't see how you can possibly ever come out on this kind of strategy.

Also since these are 2X inverse funds and are designed to only approximate 2X (DAILY) inverse, not weekly nor monthly, and with the effects of compounding, I would think the UYG/SKF charts would become skewed beyond much predictability. Seems to me that UYG/SKF chart reflects the "effect" and not the "cause" and therefore the $DJUSFN chart, or I guess the XLF chart in your case, since you try to rely on more immediate insight, would be a more reliable predictor of future movement, IMO.

I hope this works out for you somehow Ares, I just cannot imagine how.

BigSully and Maxi,

Thanx for your comments.

I've considered what you've said and here's my recent post at the SKF yahoo message board:

Different strokes for different folks.

Instead of going all in, I nibble starting at a reasonable price (in my perspective).

With a 144.44 #1 entry, there seems to be some wiggle room towards the 211.75 high ( taking into consideration that it may not create a double top anymore).

I have SKF at 144.44,137.57, and 122.72.

I don't use stops.

I'm concerned for my SKF positions because financials may have bottomed already and I may not be able to get out of the 144.44 position at a profit.

However, financials (UYG) price is still within a descending channel (linear regression) and below the 200sma.

SKF linear regression still on an upward slope on the daily chart but seems to be moving sideways already.

Another concern I have is:
SKf is trading below the weekly 8ema with a slow stochastics that crossed down from above 80 (and is still above 20 - more room before it gets to an oversold condition) with what looks like a confirming macd bearish cross.

UYG on the other hand, has slow stohastics crossed up from below 20 with macd histogram starting to form a mountain (and macd lines setting for a bullish cross over [not sure if that's confirmed crossover yet] and having a bullish divergence).

I was planning to add more on SKF if it tanks, but now I'm just trying to get out of the 3 positions I already have.

While wating for a profitable exit on SKF ( It could wait a while since it is in my RRSP), I plan to go in and out of UYG.

Good luck in the strategy you employ and the descisions you make.

[Ares]

This chart shows an SKF hourly chart with top 50% linear regression line at 125.54 and the 5 minute chart hitting 120.88 ( near the 120.89 top 100% linear regression line I was looking at earlier on).

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=10423&mid=10423&tof=23&frt=2#10423