Small cap power: CIMT

[raspi]

there was a trade at $3.77 but my trading station still shows $3.86 as the last price.. Looks like market makers want to make 3SOF happy 

[David Randolph]

As buddjas1 said, we got the volume, at 169,600 shares, but we failed on price by just 2 cents, since the close was $3.84 and we needed more than $3.86 for the rally to be "technically perfect".

Anyway, I must say all these thoughts and analysis are more for entertaining purposes than to make money, because 2 cents above or below any given number are meaningless in the bigger scheme of things, the only one that should matter.

I'm just a bit afraid that Q1 numbers might disappoint some people, because historically that has been a seasonally weak quarter, but I'm not sure, because the press releases we've been getting out of the company paint an optimistic view of the present and future. I sure hope Q1 is strong enough to make the stock rally above recent highs of $4.73, but a bit weaker than expected quarter due to seasonal factors won't affect my long term bullish outlook for this stock, which by the way I consider the most attractive holding of the Main Portfolio, with an estimated share price CAGR of 84.89% and an optimal selling price of $15.55.

You pay attention to CIMT, because this stock can fly 100% in one single day without prior notice (like it did on March 12). If we get EPS of around 10 cents in Q1 I don't see it stopping below $8. And that would be achieved with just $783,500 net income on $5 M - $7 M revenue.

Talk about small cap power. I'll keep holding CIMT.

[raspi]

You pay attention to CIMT, because this stock can fly 100% in one single day without prior notice (like it did on March 12). If we get EPS of around 10 cents in Q1 I don't see it stopping below $8.

btw: David, have you had a chance to look at AOB? They just reported $0.1 EPS and to my surprise the stock climbs in AH trading, currently around $10.8.. Do you think it's trading at its fair value?

[David Randolph]

You pay attention to CIMT, because this stock can fly 100% in one single day without prior notice (like it did on March 12). If we get EPS of around 10 cents in Q1 I don't see it stopping below $8.

btw: David, have you had a chance to look at AOB? They just reported $0.1 EPS and to my surprise the stock climbs in AH trading, currently around $10.8.. Do you think it's trading at its fair value?

I believe the market is excited about the Q2 guidance, not the Q1 results:

«Fiscal 2007 Financial Update

For the second quarter of fiscal 2007, the Company anticipates revenue of approximately $33.0 million, a 45% increase compared to second quarter 2006 revenues of $22.8 million, with the majority of this revenue growth coming from products that serve the OTC market, primarily the Jinji product portfolio. The Company anticipates diluted earnings per share of approximately $0.14, based on a diluted share count of approximately 66.6 million shares outstanding.»

I don't have time for a full analysis now, maybe tomorrow, thanks for the suggestion.

[raspi]

thanks David, I did not want to bother you and I am sorry for bringing it up on CIMT board. I like AOB but I think its actually a little bit overvaluated at this stage...
I made a pathethic trade with AOB..bought at $4.8 and sold at $5.3 only to watch it climb to $12  .  With CIMT and XING I decided to be much more patient!

[Ares]

CIMT looking good.
Will more volume come in soon?

[buddjas1]

Anyone here plan on holding CIMT through earnings?  I am considering it becuase I think there is a real chance of a profitable first quarter, but I want to see other people's thoughts.

[ygtrdr]

With the rollout of the new software and the strong push into China I as well am betting that Q1 will be profitable and we'll get good guidance so I plan to hold through earnings.

[Garoh]

Anyone here plan on holding CIMT through earnings?  I am considering it becuase I think there is a real chance of a profitable first quarter, but I want to see other people's thoughts.

YES me 

this move we had yestreday and today made me feel better with it ...

looking for another 100% jump soon .. 

[mbaugh]

I am also holding.  I believe the company wants to prove that its restructuring and global expanision is paying off after years of hard work and cost cutting.  Its time for the rewards!

Mbaugh

[DragonAMG]

Like David, I plan on holding onto this one until it hits the optimal selling price 

[nullzero]

Lets hope we see new 52wk highs on CIMT very soon .

[David Randolph]

I'm not sure if you can perceive it from the graph below, but Q1 revenue has always been lower than Q4:



This is why I've been writing about Q1 being a seasonally weak quarter. I'm not sure why, since this is a software company, but it is an historical fact.

What the quarterly revenue graph above also tells us is that high and stable revenue numbers never were CIMT's problem (high for a $32 M market cap company). The problem has always been profitability. As we've seen previously on this thread, the company went through an intense cost cutting effort, and Q4 2006 was the most profitable ever, with net income of $577,000 and EPS of $0.07. And a continuation of this is our hope for Q1, not so much revenue growth (due to seasonality), but another profitable quarter. As I said yesterday, just a $0.10 EPS number for the quarter and probably CIMT will almost instantly trade at $8, and it would still be cheap at those levels (the speed of this stock doesn't allow you to take profits and jump back in if the news is positive - you would have to pay a much higher price due to a huge gap up at the open). But if we get just $0.05 it isn't a case to panic either, I'll keep holding CIMT if that happens.

According to my news service, CIMT only started issuing press releases (other than the obligatory SEC files) in Q1 2007, even though it has been a publicly traded company since 1996. And those were quite optimistic and promising press releases. This company has the same # of shares issued and outstanding since its IPO and the balance sheet is healthy, so I don't expect the current press release campaign to be a way of attracting investor's money for dilution due to short term capital needs. I would be very disappointed if that were the case.

I believe the company has been issuing these optimistic press releases because it wants the world to notice its fundamental turnaround to profitability. Therefore I expect Q1 2007 to be profitable, even if not terribly so (because of seasonality) and I'll hold CIMT through earnings.

[rickjust]

hi,
when is earnings?
max

[David Randolph]

hi,
when is earnings?
max

Hi rickjust, probably May 16.