Session of 03/13/2007

[David Randolph]

Ok, the poll is closed, the winners were JSDA, CMGI and AMRN (in case of a draw I pick the one to cover).

Thanks for your votes

[ScottishTrader]

Hi guys,

I don't know about you, but I think things are looking decidedly bearish out there.  The Dow just broke trough 2180 and 2160 support - if it breaks 2150 I could see it going down another 60 points from where it is now in short order.

[dnickers]

David, Excellent work on GOOG!!

Still hanging onto those puts here...maybe they'll be worth something in the next day or two...

[nullzero]

I think david was 100% right on his first call of the bearish market. As always our first call is usually the right one. The emerging markets are going to have a blood bath later today on worries of extreme recession and slow down in consumer spending.

[TraderStar]

I think david was 100% right on his first call of the bearish market. As always our first call is usually the right one. The emerging markets are going to have a blood bath later today on worries of extreme recession and slow down in consumer spending.

I still say it is not a bear market .. yet.   This is the second leg pullback, just like last May. 

[nullzero]

I think david was 100% right on his first call of the bearish market. As always our first call is usually the right one. The emerging markets are going to have a blood bath later today on worries of extreme recession and slow down in consumer spending.

I still say it is not a bear market .. yet.   This is the second leg pullback, just like last May. 

We will have to wait and see, there is way to much bullish sediment espically right after a major decline like that. People flip flop to quickly at uptick of the market, we were faked out on a bear market on the last correction in the summer of 06, but I believe this time around it will not be the case.

[David Randolph]

I think david was 100% right on his first call of the bearish market. As always our first call is usually the right one. The emerging markets are going to have a blood bath later today on worries of extreme recession and slow down in consumer spending.

It's nice to see the market plunging and the Main Portfolio up 1.64%

[dnickers]

It's nice to see the market plunging and the Main Portfolio up 1.64%

I agree - it's got a strange appeal to it.   

[nullzero]

Feels like the next bear raid is going to happen the last hour of trading.

[WallStreetnBio]

dave do you think the asians will wake up in the morning and panic because of the yen carry trade and our markets dropping? is there a play there?

[David Randolph]

dave do you think the asians will wake up in the morning and panic because of the yen carry trade and our markets dropping? is there a play there?

Panic? No, they will go down, but I don't see panic. The main problem is the US consumer and its lack of savings, Asian economies will probably center on their internal demand and will do Ok.

When the 1987 crash happened, the Nikkei 225 had just a minor blip and continued higher ... but are you talking long or short term? I dislike talking short term.

Good luck

[nullzero]

No doubt the emerging markets are going to hit pretty hard. Panic... who knows though Japan, China, and the rest of the Asian countries are heavily dependent on the American consumer for GDP growth.

[WallStreetnBio]

I just bought some puts on BIDU

[ScottishTrader]

OK, I think we are abou to see things get a bit ugly.  Dow just hit a new low and pierced 12100.   watch out if 12090 get taken out.

[tokyopua]

dave do you think the asians will wake up in the morning and panic because of the yen carry trade and our markets dropping? is there a play there?

Panic? No, they will go down, but I don't see panic. The main problem is the US consumer and its lack of savings, Asian economies will probably center on their internal demand and will do Ok.

When the 1987 crash happened, the Nikkei 225 had just a minor blip and continued higher ... but are you talking long or short term? I dislike talking short term.

Good luck

Japan should start supporting itself as its consumers start taking their trillions of dollars worth of yen out from their postal savings accounts and from under their mattresses and start spending.  Their GDP growth numbers were really strong a few days ago.

However, agreed that their should be some more short term downside from the US down moves.  This has to cause more undwinding of the carry trade, which is going to raise the yen, which will put a damper on importers for awhile.

But when Japan does rebound, I hope to trade some of their stocks directly with a yen account i will set up at Etrade 

I read on a realmoney.com blog comment that maybe there are some trading collars in effect today too, which would point to more possible weakness tomorrow.  Anyone know if that is true?