ASTI

[David Randolph]

The higher oil goes, the better for ASTI, since it sells (or is about to sell), alternative energy products.

Of course, no stock ever rises in a straight line so ASTI will have some pullbacks along the way, but I think we have a good shot at seeing $30 before 2007 closes (and much more over the long term).

ASTI's products represent the smart way to put the buildings, houses and factories of the future working through solar energy.

I'll keep holding ASTI for the long term.

[soxguy]

Asti was just mentioned on cnbc as one of the companies presenting today at a conferrence in California. The commentator was holding one of their products,a flexible solar panel. Impressive. Needless to say,the stock spiked on that.

[stocky]

The way FSLR blew up estimates I am sure ASTI would be one day like FSLR. Applaud David.

[David Randolph]

Asti was just mentioned on cnbc as one of the companies presenting today at a conferrence in California. The commentator was holding one of their products,a flexible solar panel. Impressive. Needless to say,the stock spiked on that.

Thanks for the information soxguy

Unfortunately CNBC's coverage and the subsequent rallies usually don't stick.

The way FSLR blew up estimates I am sure ASTI would be one day like FSLR. Applaud David.

FSLR up 34% Incredible, because it was so expensive from a "normal" fundamental standpoint. Let me check those earnings:

• First Solar 3Q Profit Surges
AP (Wed, Nov 7)

Yep, brutal earnings surprise, $0.58 EPS versus $0.19 expected. However, even at $0.58 ($2.32 annualized), FSLR's earnings multiple is 97

Anyway, I've already seen BIDU triple after having a 100 times earnings multiple, so far from me to say FSLR won't indeed triple to $600 plus. I don't know. But if FSLR triples I think ASTI will be up 10 fold, because it is 80 times smaller and, in my opinion, it has the same or even higher long term economic potential.

ASTI is potentially a 10 to 100 bagger, don't let yourself fool into the trading game. Put your shares in a safe deposit box and forget them. Look at them five years later.

But, since we're here, we'll keep talking just a bit about the company each day, it will be an interesting journey.

[soxguy]

Maybe this is a ten bagger,let's hope so. The short term can be rocky. It' my understanding that the rise in these solar stocks is due the rising price of oil. Most say the fundamentals don't support $100 oil. If and when oil sinks ,these stocks will get cheaper in a hurry. Just my two cents.

[berloga]

David,

JASO just had what appears to be strong earnings. I know it's appreciated alot since 3 months ago, but is it worth considering still?

Thanks.
Berloga.

[kslifka]

David,

JASO just had what appears to be strong earnings. I know it's appreciated alot since 3 months ago, but is it worth considering still?

Thanks.
Berloga.

Berloga,

I was watching JASO...but notice the increase in shares from a year ago.   

That's why I think it dropped

Weighted average
  number of
  ordinary shares        2006                2007
  outstanding:
   Basic                      80,000,000      138,270,000
   Diluted                   80,000,000      139,496,802



Weighted average
  number of ADS
  outstanding:
   Basic                      26,666,667        46,090,000
   Diluted                   26,666,667        46,498,934

[berloga]

Good point, kslifka, thanks! Makes sense to stay out of JASO.

[David Randolph]

Maybe this is a ten bagger,let's hope so. The short term can be rocky. It' my understanding that the rise in these solar stocks is due the rising price of oil. Most say the fundamentals don't support $100 oil. If and when oil sinks ,these stocks will get cheaper in a hurry. Just my two cents.

Thanks for your two cents soxguy

Well, I don't know if a barrel of oil at $100 is fundamentally supported or not, but I believe solar energy, especially the one provided by ASTI's technology, will be part of our future, whatever the oil price is, due to environmental regulation.

You were right when saying the short term can be rocky, ASTI fell 24% in a couple of days

This market behavior has several short term motivations, but none is long term or fundamentally relevant. The stock went down because the general market was weak, because it was overbought, because perhaps $oil at $100 isn't sustainable, because the whole sector was down, etc. But none of these issues is relevant to the promise that ASTI's products will be a part of tomorrow's buildings and houses ... and with NHY's distribution and marketing capabilities, the future might come a lot quicker than one imagines right now.

Look at FSLR, another thin film producer (but with a technology which seems inferior to ASTI's). It is a $16 B plus market cap company.

ASTI, which will make similar (but better) products and will probably have an even superior distribution network is just a $188 M market cap company. I say ASTI will be at least a 10 bagger in a couple of years time.

Good point, kslifka, thanks! Makes sense to stay out of JASO.

Dilution was the reason why I sold JASO at $26, and that wasn't a smart move at all. I need to be careful and not consider just one aspect, but all aspects in conjunction before making an investment decision.

Anyway, I don't know about JASO at this point ... if I wanted to invest some more into solar energy I would be more inclined into buying some more of ASTI, which represents the future. JASO sells and profits a lot now, but its technology may very well become obsolete in two years time ... the revenue and earnings multiple might compress in the present because of this future possibility (near certainty).

I'll keep holding ASTI for the long term, disregarding all short term fluctuations. 

[pinoleropuro]

what is the secret about 50 SMAs?
it looks like this one wants to get to the 50 SMA. 

[Goldeneyes]

Hi David

What do you think about this:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071112/apfn_solar_stocks_sector_snap.html?.v=1

[la-onda]

Solar Names Shed Gain on Possible Energy Bill Revision
Monday , November 12, 2007 19:19ET

Monday's session saw the market's losses decelerate with many blue chips finding their footing for most of the day while tech names saw a sell off led by E-Trade Financial which saw its shares fall by 60%. An end of day sell off saw the Dow close below 13,000 for the first time in nearly 3 months, but with the holiday season approaching, and an already weary consumer knocked on his heels, the buying season might not be as giving to many investors.

In the small cap space, many of the solar names saw their shares take a huge hit following the industry's trade group posting of an alert on its web site noting that Congress may not pass renewable initiatives in the much anticipated energy bill.

There was no confirmation that Congress would pass the bill without the tax credits but the Solar Energy Industries Association lobbied supporters to call their representatives and display their reactions to the cut in solar initiatives.

Some media outlets reported that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi had decided to remove the renewable portfolio standard (RPS) and all tax provisions benefiting renewables so that they could pass an energy bill through Congress before Thanksgiving break, but a spokesman for Pelosi noted a decision hadn't been made on any provision yet.

Even mentioning the dropping in the provisions had many clamoring for a change.

Noted Rhone Resch, President of the Solar Energy Association, "We truly hope that Congress will provide the leadership that brings our country into the 21st century on energy technologies and energy policy-not remain stuck in the 19th and 20th century."

Following the reports, shares of the solar names saw huge losses. SunPower Corp. (SPWR) fell 14.6%, Ascent Solar Technologies Inc.'s (ASTI) stock fell 12%, First Solar Inc.'s (FSLR) shares fell 14%, Evergreen Solar Inc (ESLR) dropped 13.7%, and even wafer producer MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc (WFR) shed 4.7%.

The pullbacks could be an attractive entry point for long term investors wanting a piece of the solar pie. Oil continues to hover in the $100 range. With crude that high, all alternatives will continue to be in higher demand globally. Also, the US market only accounts for some 10% of the global solar market.

Analysts confirmed the thought. Think Equity Partners noted the removal of the domestic tax credit would not be the end of the world. Stanford analysts acknowledged that the solar tax credits will be set aside for now, but expects there will be an extension as they don't expire until the end of 2008. SG Cowen analysts viewed the move as a "psychological blow" but noted it would have little near term impact on demand and recommended building positions. American Technology Research noted that the recent correction presented a buying opportunity.

In any event, the sector got beat up pretty badly on the speculation the Democrats would concede some points in their energy bill. Even if it isn't passed in this session, it isn't the end of domestic tax initiatives for alternate energy. At a later date, a new bill or initiative could be put in place to do what needs to be done which is to curb America's dependency on foreign energy and with that in mind, investors would be wise to watch.

[stocky]

Governator of CA is going as much green as could be possible. I think the real push will come for Solar incentives once crude crosses $100 or gas costs $4 on avg in Southern CA.

Truly, if ppl sell solars b/c of this reason, then back up your 9 trucks [all 9 trucks should not be more than 6.66% of your portfolio ]

[David Randolph]

what is the secret about 50 SMAs?
it looks like this one wants to get to the 50 SMA. 

Yep, it's really incredible how sooner or later most stocks come down to touch that support line. It makes me think that, whenever I want to buy a stock, I should just hold on to my horses and keep studying it and then, when the encounter with the 50 days SMA comes, I would decide to actually buy the stock or not. It would give me more time to study and perhaps a better timing at entry.

Thanks Goldeneyes, la-onda and stocky for bringing me reasons for ASTI's 33% drop in just three days I was scratching my head.

So, it appears that solar stocks, as a group, were down heavily because there are hints that the US energy bill won't have some of the expected incentives for alternative energy. But, as I read this entire thread, not once have I mentioned that energy bill or subsidies as a reason to buy ASTI. If it wasn't a reason to buy, it isn't a reason to sell either, not in my view.

I believe there's no alternative to alternative energy , because sooner or later, oil will end. Also, the environment is starting to be on most people's minds in the developed countries. I believe the US isn't playing its leadership role as it usually does, because President Bush isn't sensitive enough to the environment or energy savings. But he won't be at the White House for much longer, so ...

Anyway, here in Europe, most new houses have a solar panel. I believe that three years from now there will be legislation actually obligating every new house or building to have energy generation capabilities, be it through the sun, wind or whatever.

ASTI appears to have the best technology and the best partner. Moreover it has plenty of cash.

Yesterday I went to a meeting at my 4 year old school. The educational program is completely focused on the environment. Our children will be much more concerned with the environment than we are.

ASTI is in the right sector, has the right balance sheet, the right strategic partner, the right technology. It is right to own it for the long term. I'll do the right thing.

[ravenquork]

what is the secret about 50 SMAs?
it looks like this one wants to get to the 50 SMA. 

Yep, it's really incredible how sooner or later most stocks come down to touch that support line. It makes me think that, whenever I want to buy a stock, I should just hold on to my horses and keep studying it and then, when the encounter with the 50 days SMA comes, I would decide to actually buy the stock or not. It would give me more time to study and perhaps a better timing at entry.

Just my two cents, but I think that, in general, this is a great idea.

1. Taking time to evaluate a stock would allow a chance to discover additional things about the sector, competitors, products, management and market that would only enhance confidence in the stock purchase.

2. Watching for the pull back to the 50 sma would allow time for number one to take place and possibly provide a better entry point.  Essentially, we would develop a watch list of high confidence stocks that we could pull the trigger on at any time. This would not be the same as trying to time the market, but rather an opportunity to look for confirmation of the investment premise before investing dollars.   

3. I believe that this would be a great guideline, but not a hard rule. For some stocks, the investment premise might be confirmed sufficiently through research to pull the trigger immediately.

On a separate subject,  I have no objections to having a small proportion of stocks in otc stocks of any nationality. Size and exchange do not provide a guarantee of honesty in management, just a greater likelihood. If you have any doubts, go back a few years and take a look at Enron or Adelphia. The evaluation process serves as a filter for determining those stocks where sufficient or insufficient information exists to have a high confidence level.  This would be particularly true if we take the approach outlined above. Stocks moving from OTC to a more respected exchange could be one reason for a high confidence level.