ASTI

[berloga]

How do you figure $11.85, Garoh? And why do you think the stock will pull back from current levels rather than producing another white candle after, presumably today's, and then correct? Just curious...

[poli]

I see you filled your order at 13.96.  I had a limit order in at 13.96 before the market opened and it still has not filled and probably will not today, go figure.....I wll not chase it for now.

poli

[la-onda]

insider buying (10% owner) 

[la-onda]

10% owner is buying shares:
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5180824

[stocky]

The insider purchase is interesting. Thanks la-onda.

[Amarens]

Hi David,

Missed out on this one Friday  , had to go shoe shopping with my daughter  .

Will try today to get in. David, why are you not posting your validation model anymore (also not on IMMR), I miss it. First of all I understand it  and second of all it helps one decide wether it's still interesting to get in at a later point.

Thanks,
Amarens

[David Randolph]

David, I like you more when you frankly admit your mistake. But thats how I learn and improve. Goodluck this time.   

Thanks stocky, good luck for you too

Good one David 

But you could get it for less around $11.85   .. or you can do the same thing you did with POCC , buy 50% and wait for a bull back to buy the rest ...

Hi Garoh

The only reason why I bought just half of POCC.OB was because I didn't feel comfortable with the very low liquidity of the stock. I never bought the other half because later I found out my fundamental reasoning was wrong.

As for ASTI and "you could get it for $11.85", I'm not going to say that won't be possible, but I think your confidence level isn't matched by the accuracy of the tools you use to make that kind of forecast. 

I see you filled your order at 13.96.  I had a limit order in at 13.96 before the market opened and it still has not filled and probably will not today, go figure.....I wll not chase it for now.

poli

Actually, as I was asked on the Analysis on Demand thread about ASTI, I made my study of the stock and bought it on Thursday afternoon at $13.90, because I knew I was going to recommend the stock the next day (I almost never do this, but not to add to the buying pressure at the next open, I did it). The next morning I had to leave the office before the open, so I told Ramsburg to add ASTI to the Main Portfolio at the opening price, which was $13.96, so he did that. Now you're telling me it was hard to buy at that price, so I'm going to change the entry price on the Main to, say, $14.1, so that the Main accurately reflects the prices subscribers buy and sell their shares on my recommendation.

As for you not chasing the stock higher ... well, one of the reasons I've been developing longer term analysis' tools and investing for the long term is for me not to care about short term fluctuations, technical noises, peanuts, whatever you want to call it. This way, I don't care if I buy the stock at X price or 5% higher or 5% lower, it is irrelevant for the long term outcome of the investment. I make sure that when I want to buy, I buy.

But good luck if you're willing to catch it on a pullback

10% owner is buying shares:
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5180824

Yep, thanks for the info la-onda

Hi David,

Missed out on this one Friday , had to go shoe shopping with my daughter .

Oh my, I hope at least your daughter was happy with the shoes

Will try today to get in. David, why are you not posting your validation model anymore (also not on IMMR), I miss it. First of all I understand it and second of all it helps one decide wether it's still interesting to get in at a later point.

You see Amarens, to build the valuation model I need to derive estimates. Usually I make those estimates by extrapolating existing fundamental trends into the future. However, on IMMR and ASTI, there are no fundamental trends, because the businesses, in terms of revenues and profits, are still incipient. I own these two stocks because I believe in both companies technologies and also because they have very strong balance sheets, which makes me less worried about dilution, even though they'll still operate for some time with little to no revenues.

I guess I know IMMR and ASTI will go up a lot but I don't know by how much, I can't predict the future value of these companies with a degree of confidence that allows me to build the valuation model for these stocks. 

I expect the next good news to come out from ASTI will be that NHY increased its stake to 35%, as it opted to convert its class B warrants at $11. ASTI will have more than $100 M in cash after the conversion, and that, combined with the future prospects of the company, may very well put the shares in the $30 level. Anyway, this is just a short term prediction and I'll hold ASTI for the long term, as I believe I'll see the buildings of the future using its technology to produce energy from the sun.

[Garoh]

Hi David   


This's  a good one it moved up very quickly ... I'm still not in yet maybe I lost the chance but   one thing I'm sure about which is I won't get in at these prices ..
as long as it's a long term investment i'll wait for a pull back to my price , who knows ? 

It was a good investment when you first bought it at $8 a few months ago ...

Good job David

[berloga]

Assuming the rally began at $10 and reached $19 at the peak, that is 90% profit for some. They'll most likely cash out to keep that safe. A 60% retracement would be around David's entry level. An intraday swing down and it could be scooped at $13, who knows. The fact is that now we'd have to catch it. (I didn't get in because I already was in JASO, TSL and HOKU and had zero cash for ASTI.)

[la-onda]

Flare Of Interest In Ascent Solar
Carl Gutierrez, 09.24.07, 8:15 PM ET
The reclusive David Gelbaum strikes again.

Shares of Ascent Solar Technologies (nasdaq: ASTI - news - people ) briefly soared Monday on news that Gelbaum's Quercus Trust had bought 323,701 shares last week in the tiny maker of thin-film photovoltaic cells for $14.41 to $15.84 apiece, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission made on Friday.

Shares of the micro-cap Littleton, Colo.-based company briefly soared to an all-time high of $19.06 on abnormally heavy volume, but ended the day down 5 cents, or 0.3%, at $16.45.

According to the filing, Quercus now owns 1.7 million shares, or 15.4% of the company's 11 million outstanding share total as of June 30.

Quercus has steadily increased its stake in the technology company this month. The Newport Beach, Calif.-based fund reported owning an 8.8% stake of Ascent as of Sept. 4, and a 10.2% stake on Sept. 12.

Ascent was set up by privately held ITN Energy Systems in 2005 with the aim of commercializing photovoltaic technology developed by ITN for space, land and near-space applications. Like so many small tech start-ups, Ascent may have potential, but it doesn't make any money. The company reported a loss of $1.5 million in its last quarter on $208,000 in sales. By the end of 2006, the company didn't report sales, while announcing a loss of $4.2 million.

Gelbaum is a major donor to environmental and conservation causes as well as an investor in related companies, but he appears to wish to remain anonymous as possible. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, Gelbaum is a math prodigy who made his fortune over the past 30 years by using mathematical formulas to pick stocks and bonds for hedge fund investors. As of 2004, he has donated at least $250 million to charitable causes; his money has helped to preserve hundreds of miles of wildlife corridors across mountains and deserts.
According to Ascent spokesman Brian Blackman, Gelbaum recently contacted the company and expressed his confidence in being an investor in the company.

[David Randolph]

This's  a good one it moved up very quickly ... I'm still not in yet maybe I lost the chance but   one thing I'm sure about which is I won't get in at these prices ..

Why not, do you think the price is too high? Because it went up too fast over the short term, you expect a correction?

as long as it's a long term investment i'll wait for a pull back to my price , who knows ?   

How do you expect to hold it for the long term while you're so worried about a potential correction now?

I'm not worried at all, it is indifferent to me, if the next $2-$5 will be up or down, because that won't change my long term view for the stock.

It was a good investment when you first bought it at $8 a few months ago ...

Good job David

Thanks Garoh, I wish my hands were as strong back then as they are today. But I believe there will be many more bags of profit going forward for the patient long term investor in ASTI shares.

Assuming the rally began at $10 and reached $19 at the peak, that is 90% profit for some. They'll most likely cash out to keep that safe. A 60% retracement would be around David's entry level. An intraday swing down and it could be scooped at $13, who knows. The fact is that now we'd have to catch it. (I didn't get in because I already was in JASO, TSL and HOKU and had zero cash for ASTI.)

Those others have been doing well too berloga (I sold TSL well, but I should have held JASO longer), but ASTI is the best in my opinion, because ASTI has the technology of the future, while others are working on old technologies which may very well become obsolete in five years time.

Like so many small tech start-ups, Ascent may have potential, but it doesn't make any money. The company reported a loss of $1.5 million in its last quarter on $208,000 in sales. By the end of 2006, the company didn't report sales, while announcing a loss of $4.2 million.

Everybody knows the company is still losing money and almost has no revenues. But it is about to have about $110 M in cash and will start selling products in 2008. With NHY's distribution capacity (NHY is a $53 B company) it may sell a lot in 2009 and beyond.

Gelbaum is a major donor to environmental and conservation causes as well as an investor in related companies, but he appears to wish to remain anonymous as possible. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, Gelbaum is a math prodigy who made his fortune over the past 30 years by using mathematical formulas to pick stocks and bonds for hedge fund investors. As of 2004, he has donated at least $250 million to charitable causes; his money has helped to preserve hundreds of miles of wildlife corridors across mountains and deserts.
According to Ascent spokesman Brian Blackman, Gelbaum recently contacted the company and expressed his confidence in being an investor in the company.

Cool story, but that's not the main reason why ASTI is rising. It is rising because it has a superb technology to capture and produce energy from the sun light and heat, and because it is being helped by NHY, a 23% owner (probably 35% owner in the next couple of weeks) to produce and market its products.

Gelbaum is just another believer in ASTI's long term potential (a big one, it seems). That Forbes article is totally biased, as it completely ignores NHY, its investment in ASTI and the steps it is taking to help ASTI market its products, combined with NHY's products.

Anyway, the article, being published on Forbes magazine, may have a negative impact on the share price, which I see as a good buying opportunity.

There was a press release out from the company today:

• Ascent Solar Technologies to Present at UBS Solar Conference
Business Wire (Tue 6:00am)

The next press release I expect from ASTI is about the conversion of the class B warrants at $11 bringing in more than $70 M for the company.

I'll keep holding ASTI for the long term.

[kslifka]

Very nice....ASTI....many solar stocks on fire.  What do you think of HOKU???

HOKU Chart looks poised for a break-out...just waiting on financing details.  Hopefully no dillution.

[la-onda]

monster chart 

[David Randolph]

If I'm right and this move in ASTI's shares doesn't stop this side of $30 I think it will be the first time I'll use a specific stock example to make a strategic case and actually get away with it 

But it is still too early to say ...

ASTI will spread its story some more, this time the audience is going to be at Goldman Sachs:

• Ascent Solar to Present at Goldman Sachs Small-Cap Energy/Alternative Energy Event
Business Wire (Wed 6:00am)

Very nice....ASTI....many solar stocks on fire.  What do you think of HOKU???

HOKU Chart looks poised for a break-out...just waiting on financing details.  Hopefully no dillution.

I would have to make an in depth study on the stock. I know the company is supposed to make polysilicom for solar panel makers, which seems to be a great business, since demand is so high. StockLemon raised some red flags on HOKU, check it out here:

Citron Warns on Hoku Scientific

I'm not sure Kslifka, good luck

I'll continue holding ASTI for the long term.

[David Randolph]

Gelbaum keeps buying ASTI at these high prices (probably in a few years time today's prices will seem very low). There was a form 4 just filled showing his Querqus Trust buying another 45,799 shares at $18.25. The Trust now owns 1,738,146 shares.

The candlestick left on the chart looks bearish, but so did the one on Tuesday and the stock still went higher, so ... the trend is your friend.

I'll hold ASTI for the long term.