ASTI

[la-onda]

ASTI: Raymond James Starts @ Outperform
Tuesday , April 22, 2008 10:12ET
Issuer: Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc. (NasdaqNM: ASTI)
Analyst Firm:  Raymond James Financial Inc.
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Outperform

nice chart action today supported by an upgrade

[terainvestment]

Hi David,

generally a capital dilution causes stock price to go down, while yesterday ASTI ramped up furiously.
Do you think the outlook for this company is so brilliant that no one cares about dilution?

[la-onda]

ASTI: Raymond James Starts @ Outperform
Tuesday , April 22, 2008 10:12ET
Issuer: Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc. (NasdaqNM: ASTI)
Analyst Firm:  Raymond James Financial Inc.
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Outperform

nice chart action today supported by an upgrade

David, are there any details from this analysis available via your tool?

very tight bollinger bands on daily chart
weekly chart looks also promising

[soxguy]

DJ Ascent Solar 1Q Loss/Shr 20c >ASTI
                                                                         
.
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Ascent Solar Technologies Inc. (ASTI) reported Tuesday a first-quarter net loss of $2.4 million, or 20 cents a share, narrowing from $1.4 million, or 24 cents, in the year-ago period,
According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, research and development revenue was $304,898 up from $235,181 a year ago.
Shares of the Littleton, Colo., development-stage solar technologies company closed Monday at $16.48.

-Ingrid Pedrick Lehrfeld, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-1361

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 29, 2008 06:46 ET (10:46 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 06 46 AM EDT 04-29-08

[la-onda]

any comments from analysts David regarding 10Q?

http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5625597

cheers
Oliver

[Kublakhan]

Rumor that LDK's CEO is getting into thin film:

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/ldk-ceo-starts-thin-film-firm-848.html

[David Randolph]

any comments from analysts David regarding 10Q?

http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5625597

cheers
Oliver

Hi Oliver, no, at least, not yet. There are 4 analysts covering ASTI, namely, Discovery Research Thom Weisel, Merriman Curhan Ford & Co., Janco Partners, Inc. and Raymond James & Associates Inc.

I guess something will be released before today's open.

Anyway, since I know you enjoy, I've attached a 31 pages research document published in April 22nd by Raymond James & Associates.

I notice that besides the 10-Q (which doesn't contain any surprise), ASTI also filed a form S-3 A (the "A" meaning it is a change from the previous S-3 form).

The initial S-3, dated March 14th, 2008, was the one when ASTI was soliciting $80 M, remember that one?

Ok, on this S-3 A they're trying to sell $59 M of securities instead.

This information is consistent with what I've been saying, that with Hydro's $28 M or so capital infusion, ASTI wouldn't need as much as $80 M, but, say, $50 M. $59 M also seems all right.

I still haven't read the research document below, but I suppose it is about ASTI's long term investment story, in which I continue to believe. 

[David Randolph]

Hi Oliver, no, at least, not yet. There are 4 analysts covering ASTI, namely, Discovery Research Thom Weisel, Merriman Curhan Ford & Co., Janco Partners, Inc. and Raymond James & Associates Inc.

I guess something will be released before today's open.

Indeed, attached below you have a 6 pages doc about ASTI's Q1 results, published by Raymond James & Associates.

I think there are two key paragraphs in the analysis:

«♦ Looking ahead, the company's capacity ramp-up program targets commercial-scale production of 30 MW by year-end 2009, rising to 110 MW by year-end 2011. This is a highly achievable roadmap, and we believe there may be room for acceleration, though of course equipment sourcing and financing naturally present some execution risks. On the cost front, Ascent is targeting all-in manufacturing cash costs of $1.00/watt when it reaches 30 MW of production capacity, decreasing further to $0.90/watt at 110 MW of capacity. We believe this translates to an operating model in 2011 and beyond under which 50%+ gross margins look quite achievable – roughly double the typical 20-25% gross margins of conventional PV producers.

♦ As a development-stage company, Ascent is likely to have minimal revenue until 4Q09, and after fine tuning our estimates, we still project negative EPS until 4Q10 (shown below). Beyond that, the sizable gains in revenue should translate into rapid EPS growth. Though cognizant of
the financing and execution risks ahead, we remain bullish on Ascent given its commercialization prospects and strategic partnerships. We reiterate our Outperform rating. Our $22.50 target price is based on a 30x multiple (consistent with our long-term growth rate assumptions) to our 2012 EPS estimate of $1.30, discounted back to 2009 at a 20% rate (conservative relative to the weighted average cost of capital of 10.3%).»

[David Randolph]

There's a Think-Tank in Germany calling for a 30% cut in subsidies to the solar industry. Some people say this is the cause for some recent weakness in solar energy stocks.

I've attached an article which says a cut of such magnitude is very unlikely and justifies this opinion. It's an interesting article which provides a few facts and expectations about the solar industry going forward. I hope you enjoy.

Nothing new on ASTI specifically, I'll keep holding.

[la-onda]

ASTI update:
1)
ASTI Has Been Added To Naked Short List Today (2nd of May)

Ascent Solar Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTI) a development stage company, engages in the commercialization of certain photovoltaic (PV) technology developed by ITN Energy Systems, Inc. for space satellite, near-space, and terrestrial markets. Its PV modules use a thin film copper-indium-gallium-diselenide semiconductor material on a flexible plastic substrate. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Littleton, Colorado. With 11.68 million shares outstanding and 1.97 million shares declared short as of March 2008, there is a failure to deliver in shares of ASTI. According to quarterly data provided by the SEC, there were still 272,928 shares of ASTI that were failing-to-deliver as of September 28, 2007.

2)
Ascent Solar's Annual Meeting of Stockholders to be held on July 1, 2008:
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5643777

3)
Solars Shine as Crude Reaches Another New High
Tuesday , May 06, 2008 15:25ET

Tuesday's session saw oil reach another high as the mantra, "another day, another dollar" was heard in sarcastic fashion across the US. With oil breaching new highs, other commodities were also seeing increases on the back of the rise in crude.

With expanding prices in energy, many were rotating their investment dollars back into the solar area as a sympathy play. Solar names were all green with the exception of Emcore Corporation (EMKR).

On Monday, rumors emerged again on LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (LDK) of a potential buyout by Siemens in the mid $40 range. LDK Solar Co., Ltd. is a leading manufacturer of multicrystalline solar wafers, which are the principal raw material used to produce solar cells. LDK sells multicrystalline wafers globally to manufacturers of photovoltaic products, including solar cells and solar modules. In addition, the Company provides wafer processing services to monocrystalline and multicrystalline solar cell and module manufacturers. Shares gained over 5% on heavy volume on the speculation. But after the bell, the Company did report news, though it had nothing to do with a potential takeover. The Company announced that it signed a five-year contract to supply multicrystalline solar wafers to Germany-based Qimonda AG (Qimonda). Under the terms of the agreement, LDK Solar will deliver approximately 540 MW of multicrystalline solar wafers to Qimonda (or its new joint venture with Centrosolar) over a five-year period commencing in 2009 through 2013. Qimonda will make an advanced payment representing a portion of the contract value to LDK Solar. Qimonda is leveraging its experience with silicon suppliers, as well as the availability of scrap silicon from its DRAM operations, to set up supply contracts with favorable terms. The signed agreement furthermore allows LDK to receive scrap silicon material from Qimonda's chip production operations. Silicon supply for the initial capacity has been secured with wafers from LDK.

Many who follow the Company will remember that the Company was embroiled in an alleged accounting scandal regarding the capitalizing of supposedly unusable scrap silicon. The accusations have caused the name to experience downward pressure even though the amount disputed in dollars was miniscule in comparison to its overall size.

Even so, the new contract announcement led shares to gains of over 3.5% while memory chip maker, Qimonda (QI) jumped over 18%. With the positive news, shares in all of the solars were ushered higher. JA Solar Holdings (JASO) gained over 10.5% ahead of their first quarter earnings report expected on May 12 (11c estimate vs. 7c last year). Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (STP) was also higher by over 5.5% following its initiation with a Buy rating by Jesup & Lamont.

With oil hitting new highs, it's smart to remember that the higher it goes, the closer solar power comes to being cost equivalent. With that in mind, investors would be wise to watch. 

Public Companies Associated with this story:
AKNS    ASTI    CSIQ    EMKR    ESLR
FSLR    HOKU    JASO    LDK    QI
SOLF    STP    TSL    WFR    

[David Randolph]

Indeed, this is smart:

With oil hitting new highs, it's smart to remember that the higher it goes, the closer solar power comes to being cost equivalent.

I don't know how's the World going to move when the Earth really runs out of oil, but solar seems to be the most intelligent substitute. The Sun is there everyday and it never ends. I'm just not sure if the sun's light and heat is enough to move cars at 200 km an hour. I guess it's just a matter of improving the technology and for that what he need is more investment in R&D.

Well, this is what has been happening and ASTI is a perfect example. Investors have been putting money into the company even though it still doesn't have any meaningful revenues.

I guess the solar group was up so strongly yesterday because $WTIC was at $122 a barrel or so. I wonder when will the World adapt ... probably when it costs less to get energy from the sun than from oil. When that happens I know who will suffer ... oil dependent countries, unless they diversify their economies, but this scenario is probably still 10 or 20 years into the future.

[la-onda]

ASTI: Short Interest DN 0.8% to 1.9M at the End of Apr 2008
Monday , May 12, 2008 06:00ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc. (NasdaqNM: ASTI) DECREASED 0.8% to 1,889,624 shares as reported at month-end April, 2008.
Based on ASTI's 20-day average daily share volume of 328,150, it would require approximately 6 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

chart:

[Se7en]

The initial S-3, dated March 14th, 2008, was the one when ASTI was soliciting $80 M, remember that one?

Ok, on this S-3 A they're trying to sell $59 M of securities instead.

This information is consistent with what I've been saying, that with Hydro's $28 M or so capital infusion, ASTI wouldn't need as much as $80 M, but, say, $50 M. $59 M also seems all right.

Did they mention somewhere at what price and date they want to sell it, can't find it.

[la-onda]

Ascent Solar prices 3.8 million shares at $14 each
By Simon Kennedy
Last update: 6:26 a.m. EDT May 16, 2008
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Ascent Solar Technologies Inc. (ASTI

ASTIZ) said Friday that it has priced a public offering of 3.8 million shares at $14 each. The firm said it will use the proceeds of the offering to design and install more tools for the production of thin-film photovoltaic modules.

[soxguy]

Market Scan
Ascent Solar's New Milestone
Carl Gutierrez, 05.16.08, 11:30 AM ET

   Ascent Solar Technologies

   


   

Ascent Solar Technologies just got a little bigger with its capital raise, giving investors more reason to believe in the up-and-coming solar company.

Solar cell maker Ascent Solar Technologies (nasdaq: ASTI - news - people ) announced Friday that its public offering of 3.8 million shares has priced at $14 per share, for total gross proceeds of $53.2 million. The offer was made at an 11.9% discount to Thursday's closing price, pushing Ascent's share price down 3.5%, or 55 cents, to $15.35, in early-morning trading, but the deal can still be considered an important milestone for the company.

"It's certainly a positive event for them," said Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James, "they got the deal successfully done, and it was obviously a large offering for a company with a market cap that was right around $200 million." As of Friday's sale, the company's outstanding shares went from 14.1 million to 17.9 million, giving the company a market cap of $274.8 million.

The Littleton, Colo.-based company said it would use the money to buy tools for the production of thin-film solar cells and for general corporate purposes. The company is in its infancy. "It's essentially a pre-revenue company," Molchanov said. "Its first commercial production line is going to be built over the next 18 months, and expects to begin operations in the fourth quarter of 2009."

For a company as small as Ascent is, in a relatively young sector like solar energy, confidence is key for garnering investor interest. In addition to Friday's development, the firm signed a strategic deal with Norwegian aluminum company Norsk Hydro (nyse: NHY - news - people ) in late-March which upped its stake in Ascent to 35%. (See: "Ascent Solar Shines On With Norsk Hydro Upping Stake")

Aside from being a large shareholder in Ascent, Norsk is a significant strategic partner. "It will be doing much of the marketing for Ascent when Ascent beings commercial production because it's integrating Ascent's solar modules into their aluminum based building systems," Molchanov said.

The concept is interesting. Solar cells are essentially baked into building materials such as shingles, facades, and siding, as opposed to the standard solar panel sitting on top of a roof.