ASTI

[Ramsburg]

Update:

This new public offer moved the stock down hard during the last few sessions; ASTI is now trading at the base of its current trading range. On a development stage company, dilution is almost inevitable and sort of expected, while its business will probably need 2 more years before showing positive EPS.
I can’t say I’m enjoying the current technical development on ASTI right now, but I hope the 14.30 support holds the stock for now, anyway, the bad news are already out.

Raymond James & Associates, published a new Research Note today, including the new share count, projected EPS, projected sales, among other material, their current price target (12month) is $22.50:
- Download the Full Research document here.

Trading plan:
HOLD ASTI

[Ramsburg]

Update:

Ugly session today, not only for ASTI but for the entire sector in general. Even STP went down after reporting impressive results against market estimates.

The sector is in the middle of a consolidation process after recent gains, and ASTI wasn't an exception, especially after the recent public offer:
- Ascent Solar Announces Closing of Public Offering of Common Stock (The $14.00 level should be a benchmark price now after this).

Technically, this drop below $14.40 is not good, since the stock was trading inside well defined range. Below the current level, we have only $13.51 and $12.09, both sides of the opened gap.

We’ll be setting a stop level soon, but for today the trading plan remains.

Trading Plan:
HOLD ASTI

[Ramsburg]

Update:

Another ugly session for ASTI… it’s now trading inside the gap zone, this means that if a «fill the gap» is in play, ASTI could go as low as $12.09 in the short term ($12.09 is the lower side of the gap).

We’ll wait for developments, but I’m not enjoying this technical layout.

Trading Plan:
HOLD ASTI

[la-onda]

Ascent Solar Tech shares rally; Cowen & Co. initiates at outperform
Tuesday , May 27, 2008 09:34ET

BOSTON, May 27, 2008 (Thomson Financial via COMTEX) -- Shares of Ascent Solar Technologies Inc. rallied in early trading Tuesday after Cowen & Co. initiated coverage of the Little, Colo.-based photovoltaic technology developer with an outperform rating.

The stock rose 4% to $13.62 just after the opening bell.

Cowen said Ascent's thin-film on plastic technology should be well-suited for specialty applications, making it likely to command better average selling prices with fewer competitors.

"And, marketing via partners should yield a lean model," Cowen continued. "While not profitable until 2010, margins should scale rapidly with volume."

As a result, Cowen said it expects production milestones and customer news to provide triggers, and it sees 45% upside compared with the market in the next 12 months.

Cowen estimates a 2008 loss of 56 cents a share for Ascent.

Greg Saulnier gs/pc

Rams, any update from your side?

cheers
O.

[Ramsburg]

Rams, any update from your side?

cheers
O.

Hi la-onda,

Cowen & Co published in fact a great research note, very complete that gives complete coverage to all factors in play for ASTI (and sector) and setting nice perspectives for its market performance.

- Here is the complete Note (a PDF with 20 pages);


And here it is a summary of their idea:

Investment Thesis
ASTI is a development stage thin-film solar company. It started commercial
production, for the purposes of product development and qualification, on a 1.5MW
pilot line in Q2:08.

We believe three factors make it attractive, despite its small size:
it is likely to be one of the first to successfully commercialize CIGS thin-film
technology, it uniquely uses roll-to-roll manufacturing on flexible plastic substrate
(not rigid glass panels), and it uses monolithic integration, which is laser patterning
and ink printing to interconnect cells into modules (not possible with flexible metal
substrate). The resulting flexible, light weight laminates can be tailored to customer
specifications, which should be particularly well suited for applications in building
integrated PV (BIPV) and electronics integrated PV (EIPV). These specialty markets
ought to command better ASPs with fewer competitors. Also, by working through
channel partners, such as Norsk Hydro (which owns 35%), it should be able to gain
market presence with relatively low expenses. Other partners include: ITOCHU, ICP
Solar Technologies, Icopal, and Giscosa Sociedad Limitada. Capacity expansion to
110MW by year-end 2011 should drive strong revenue growth. We do not project
profits until H2:2010, but margins should expand rapidly with volume. Meanwhile,
the ramp of pilot production and more customer announcements should provide
near-term triggers.

Risk include: potential delays in achieving expected production
volume, yields and conversion efficiency; failure to achieve customer qualifications
and expected field performance; difficulty scaling the process from one-third meter
to one meter wide substrate; the need to raise additional capital to fund expansion;
competition from larger incumbent and many private thin-film PV companies; and
potential changes to government subsidies for solar.

Trading Plan:
HOLD ASTI

best regards,

[la-onda]

ASTI: Short Interest UP 11.5% to 2.1M in Mid May 2008
Tuesday , May 27, 2008 16:15ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc. (NasdaqNM: ASTI) INCREASED 11.5% to 2,106,784 shares as reported in mid-May, 2008.

Based on ASTI's 20-day average daily share volume of 818,840, it would require approximately 3 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

awesome update about "Alternative Energy"please read  :
http://www.knobias.com/research.pdf?id=13290

Executive Summary:
In recent years, clean tech has re-emerged on Wall Street, and in 2007, captured
roughly $3 billion worth of venture funding. For the purposes of this report, we
chose to focus on clean, or renewable, energy technologies including Solar
Power, Wind Power, Biofuels, and Fuel Cells. With it, we discuss the landscape
for clean energy technologies as a whole; describe each segment's underlying
technologies, products, and services; discuss the major trends affecting each
segment's competitive dynamics; and identify a number of innovative private
vendors that collectively reflect the robust funding each sector enjoys from the
venture capital community.

Key Points:
· Demand for Alternative Energy Technologies is driven by multiple forces, which we highlight, including: domestic energy supply/demand balance, fuel imports and non-renewable resources,
global warming concerns, the U.S. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA2007), financial incentives, and positive international fuel cell regulation.

· Solar Power – Silicon alternatives and advanced manufacturing techniques are maturing that offer promising cost per watt projections, though silicon-based technologies have already reached grid parity in many parts of the world. We examine 1G silicon-wafer cells, 2G thin films, 3G emerging semiconductor alternatives, and solar thermal.

· Wind Power – Recent high-profile wind farm deployments, such as T. Boone Pickens' Mesa Power LP, highlight the attractive nature of utility-scale wind power. In many parts of the U.S. wind power has a clear competitive advantage, costing from $0.03 to $0.05 per kWh.
Additionally, we highlight innovations being made in smaller devices for homes, schools, and businesses.

· Biofuels – 2G and 3G biofuel technologies are currently in development that have the potential to rid the U.S. of its dependence on foreign oil for transportation, and that solve "food vs. fuel" debates. These technologies are also cost-effective: $1.00 per gallon cellulosic ethanol plants are currently under construction.

· Fuel Cells – Though fuel cell technologies are often costly and materials issues persist, we believe the advantages offered by these personal power sources for portable consumer.

.....

CIGS and Other Thin Film Materials – The thin film approach involves the deposition of thin layers of semiconductor materials – up to 100 times thinner than silicon wafers – on lightweight and inexpensive substrates. These processes are advantageous since traditional wafer-based cells require many processing steps, and are energy intensive, adding to cost and further detracting from the likelihood of attaining gridparity. True second-generation solar devices are those that are made from thin-film materials, and also do not rely on the traditional cell and module construction described previously; however, thin film cell and module construction is also possible. Thin film technology predominantly focuses on three materials – amorphous/micro-crystalline silicon, copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), and cadmium telluride (CdTe) – and is the least energy intensive of the various commercial PV cell manufacturing processes.
Silicon can be used as a thin film material as well as a wafer – Xunlight makes thin-film amorphous silicon-based photovoltaic products that are built on stainless steel, rather than glass, which makes them lightweight. Energy Conversion Devices' (Nasdaq: ENER) Ovonics division originated and has patented a proprietary continuous web, multilayer, large-area thin film amorphous silicon (a-Si) technology. Amorphous silicon, unlike crystalline silicon, does not have a regular arrangement of atoms in its structure (figure 16), and typically contains a high number of structural and bonding defects. Many low-power consumer devices, such as wristwatches and calculators, utilize amorphous silicon cells. One of the benefits of amorphous silicon is that it absorbs solar radiation ~40 times more efficiently than crystalline silicon,
and thus does not require a thick wafer to capture sufficient sunlight. Amorphous silicon can be deposited in very thin layers of ~1-10 μM (vs ~100-300 μM for crystalline silicon).

The inherent fascination with CIGS as a solar cell material is explained by Dr. B.J. Stanbery et al., founder of HelioVolt, in a 2005 journal article published in Applied Physics. "We find strong chemical fluctuations at the nanoscale, which result in a lattice comprising a mixture of relatively Cu-poor and Cu-rich nanodomains... If we assume that the Cu-poor domains exhibit n-type conductivity... and the Cu-rich domains exhibit p-type conductivity... then entire CIGS films are composed of nano p-n junction networks." In other words, the inherent structure of the CIGS material is itself a p/n junction semiconductor, previously described. In addition to this benefit, CIGS and similarly, cadmium indium diselenide (CIS), have extremely high absorptivity (up to ~99%). Companies producing CIGS thin film solar devices include Ascent Solar (Nasdaq: ASTI), DayStar Technologies (Nasdaq: DSTI), Global Solar, HelioVolt, Nanosolar, Miasolé, Siemens Solar (NYSE: SI), SoloPower, and Solyndra. Cadmium telluride (CdTe) is another promising thin film material, also with very high absorptivity. Most CdTe thin film solar cells are constructed with a thin "window" layer of cadmium sulfide (CdS) which allows nearly all incident light to reach the CdTe absorbing layer. First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR) produces thin film solar
cells that employ CdTe.

[jorgegr]

Interesting insider buying. Gatchell Gary CFO bought 2000 shares. Not a very important amount
but its giving a good signal.

http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001179110%2D08%2D010749%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2008%5C05%5C28%5C&CoName=ASCENT+SOLAR+TECHNOLOGIES%2C+INC%2E&FormType=4&RcvdDate=5%2F28%2F2008&pdf=

[Ramsburg]

Interesting insider buying. Gatchell Gary CFO bought 2000 shares. Not a very important amount but its giving a good signal.

http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001179110%2D08%2D010749%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2008%5C05%5C28%5C&CoName=ASCENT+SOLAR+TECHNOLOGIES%2C+INC%2E&FormType=4&RcvdDate=5%2F28%2F2008&pdf=

Hi Jorgegr,
In deed it’s always good sign (many insiders sold during the first months of 2008), and it may set a tone for future insider transactions.

Update:

No changes, ASTI kept trading on the same zone. I can’t say that I’m enjoying its chart layout, but we’ll give it some time for developments.
Fundamentals have been well covered, with a slightly increase on research departments watching ASTI right now, the fundamental case is interesting, but as we all know it’s a future play, and that brings some risks.
We’ll try to hold this position as long as the technicals don’t deteriorate, so without setting a stop right away, I wouldn’t like to see ASTI trading below the gap zone (< $12.09).

Trading Plan:
HOLD ASTI

[Ramsburg]

Update:

What a terrible session for ASTI and all solar stocks. The Light Crude Futures were down more than 3% last session, this was probably the main reason for this plunge along with 2 downgrades on stocks among the sector.

Yesterday Raymond James Research department published some comments about new developments (positive comments):

ASTI: Positive Implications as AAPL Looks on the Solar Side of Life

♦Since the start of this week, there has been a wave of news flow regarding a recently filed patent by Apple Inc. (AAPL/$187.01) outlining the integration of solar cells into its lineup of mobile electronic devices. In short, the patent lays out a technique by which the company would place photovoltaic (PV) cells behind the liquid crystal display (LCD) of several of its portable products, absorbing the light that passes through the screen and enabling the product to perform for longer periods of time – obviously provided there is adequate sunlight. While this is not the first example of PV at work in a portable setting (e.g., pocket calculators and watches), the ability to apply PV to a portable product that uses far greater amounts of power still faces some technological hurdles. One of the main challenges will be advancing the conversion efficiency of solar cells for products that are continually striving to be more compact and
lightweight.

♦The concept laid out by Apple represents a textbook example of the electronics-integrated PV (EIPV) arena – a key future market for Ascent. Within the context of thin film pure-plays, the choice of substrate material limits the EIPV competitive landscape. Ascent’s use of a flexible, lightweight plastic substrate provides advantages as the company seeks to penetrate the EIPV as well as the building-integrated PV (BIPV) arenas, both high value added markets, for which rigid substrates are generally unsuitable.

♦In order to create a differentiated strategic advantage in an increasingly competitive PV market environment, Ascent has entered into strategic partnerships with several prominent industry players. This business model leverages the core competencies of each side, with Ascent focused on product development and manufacturing, and its partners responsible for marketing directly to end users. Within the EIPV arena specifically, Ascent's primary strategic partners are currently ITOCHU (ITOCY/$116.00) and ICP Solar (ICPR/$0.67).

♦Apple’s foray into the EIPV space highlights the impressive potential of this emerging technology and provides the "imprimatur" of a major technology leader. While there is currently no direct link between Apple and Ascent in terms of a strategic partnership, we believe that Ascent stands to benefit from the increasing adoption of thin film for a variety of PV applications, including EIPV. Though cognizant of the financing and execution risks ahead, we remain bullish on Ascent given its commercialization prospects and strategic partnerships. We reiterate our Outperform rating.

Also, Analysts at Cowen & Cº just released a positive Industry outlook that could bring some positive inputs for future estimates:

Alternative Energy
Industry Outlook 
 

May 30, 2008 

CDU/SPD Won't Propose Sharp Cuts In German
Solar Subsidies


Conclusion: Talk of drastic cuts in German solar subsidies prompted
downgrades and a sell-off in solar shares this week. However, our sources
indicate that the governing coalition parties (CDU/SPD) have agreed to terms
very close to the last draft proposal. Calls for steeper reductions by some in the
government met strong resistance over potential job losses and therefore do
not look politically feasible. A formal announcement is likely Monday after the
plan has been communicated within the parties over the weekend. We reiterate
our Outperform (1) on ASTI, ENER, ESLR, FSLR, HOKU, SPWR, STP, and TSL.

■  Unemployment At 7.8% Makes Steep Cuts Politically Impractical.
In our view, with German unemployment still near 8%, calls by some within
the CDU to cut German solar subsidies by 25% or more were never to be
taken seriously. A reduction this large would be tantamount to an industry
shutdown. As a result, numerous politicians representing the Eastern
regions of Germany, where PV is a growth industry, issued statements
against the idea, pointing to tens of thousands of jobs that would be lost.

■ Feed-In-Tariff Reduction Likely Close To Last Draft.   While definitive
terms have not been announced, sources close to the process suggest a
compromise proposal has been reached. We believe this will result in a flat
annual degression of perhaps 8-9% in 2009-11, as compared to the prior
plan for 9% in 2009, followed by 7% and 8% in the next two years.

■ Certainty In Germany, Spain (And Maybe U.S.) Should Drive Rally.
We expect a rally in H2 for solar stocks. Once revised subsidies are final in
Germany and Spain, we expect much improved visibility on demand and
prices for next year. This is likely to trigger a wave of contract
announcements, boosting confidence in estimates and lifting P/Es. And, if
Congress finally wakes up to smell the proverbial coffee (perhaps aided by
record oil prices), a U.S. ITC extension could be icing on the cake.

Technically this black candle suggests that the opened gap will most likely be filled. Like I stated before, I wasn’t enjoying this chart layout mainly because it could imply the filling of the gap… but we can also consider this as just a consolidation scenario.

Trading Plan:
HOLD ASTI

[jorgegr]

Gap closing and last 90 minutes volume shows some investors were waiting for this move.
Tomorrow's trades are promissing.   Would be excelent to get out of the way the $ 13.- mark and then go after $ 14.19 (20 EMA), meanwhile the 50 MA going up to cross the200MA this week.

Maybe I should stop dreaming....    Ohhh and the RSI (5) at 23.48 is a beauty

[Ramsburg]

Update:

ASTI just filled the Gap ($12.09/$13.51), the low of the session was $12.05 which is near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement key ratio ($11.99). As long as ASTI keeps above this area, I think the upside is still in play.

Jefferies & Cº Analysts initiated coverage on ASTI with a Hold rating a $14 PT:
– Download PDF

Summary:

Ascent Solar Tech. (NASDAQ: ASTI)
Initiating Coverage: A Rare Pure Play on Thin Film
and Building Integrated PV

Investment Summary
Ascent has a promising technology and manufacturing platform and
is targeting strong potential end markets. Yet development risk in the
coming 18 months remains high, in our view, as the company is just
beginning to operate its pilot line and commencing initial planning for
its first 30 MW commercial line.

Event
We are initiating coverage on Ascent Solar with a Hold rating.
Jefferies acted as co-manager of ASTI's recent secondary offering of
4.37MM shares (May 2008), netting $56m in proceeds for expansion.

Key Points

• Rare pure-play. Ascent is a rare public pure-play on thin film and
the BIPV (building integrated photovoltaics) and EIPV (electronics
integrated) markets. It is targeting a set of attributes (thin,
lightweight, flexible, CIGS, and monolithic) that have thus far
proved elusive in the sector and could make its modules well-suited
for a variety of value-added applications in new markets. ASTI's
use of CIGS (copper indium gallium selenium) technology and
roll-to-roll production processes hold promise for a high-throughput,
low-cost manufacturing platform and comparatively high conversion
efficiencies. Ascent's streamlined manufacturing steps also avoid
some duplicative steps required in other processes.
• Key investor and partners could create opportunities.
Norwegian aluminum giant, Norsk Hydro ASA, owns a 27% interest
in Ascent, retaining an option to lift its stake to 35% by June 15,
2009. While much of Norsk's motivation for its investment in Ascent
appears financial, the two are also pursuing development activities
to integrate Ascent's PV products into certain products
manufactured by Norsk's building products division. A stake by a
much larger, well-established company may help Ascent's
credibility with suppliers and potential customers. Strategic
relationships with other parties (ITOCHU and Icopal) could open
low-cost distribution channels for its BIPV and EIPV applications.
• Early-stage risk profile. Ascent has a promising
technology/manufacturing platform and is targeting strong
potential end markets. Yet development risk in the next 18
months remains high, in our view, as ASTI is just beginning to
operate its 1.5 MW pilot line and commencing initial planning for its
first 30 MW commercial line (fully funded). Subsequent ramp plans
call for ASTI to reach 110 MW of capacity by end 2011, which will
likely require additional equity (in '09, we believe). Several CIGS
manufacturers have already built much larger lines than ASTI's pilot
line but experienced production issues, highlighting the difficulty of
working with CIGS materials and potential for delays/missteps
before reaching commercial success.

Valuation/Risks
We base our $14 PT on a five-year DCF valuation (20% discount
rate, 6% terminal FCF growth rate). Our terminal growth rate is based
on our expectations for FCF growth in the subsequent years of our
model. Risks include ASTI's early stage of development, additional
capital needs to fund growth, lack of profitability, technology risk, and
reliance on subsidies for end user adoption, among others.

I’m not setting an automatic stop on this position yet, but if ASTI fails to hold above $12 we’ll probably sell it.

Trading Plan:
HOLD ASTI

[danman3459]

What do you guys think?  Did the bottom fall out?  I hope not; I just got some more.

[soxguy]

I think oil has to stabilize for this to stop falling,or some plain ol' good news.

[jorgegr]

The market was a mess today and ASTI went with it. Hate to admit I may have to take a loss on this one depending on tomorrow's opening.  As for CALM the market kicked me out.

[Ramsburg]

Update:

ASTI was down and closed below the gap zone, but still near it.
From a technical perspective, this spot should be a strong support because of 2 reasons:
- $12.09 is the low range of the gap
- $11.99 is a key Fibonacci level (61.8%)

The lowest range of the gap is usually a place where new buyers come in, people that missed the upswing ride and kept waiting for the gap to be closed. The Fibonacci 61.8% level is the most common area for a big consolidation scenario.

So, taking this in consideration, and forgetting about any fundamental prospects we have about ASTI, we don't want to see it trading much below this area, otherwise we have to put the normal consolidation scenario away and start thinking about distribution (that implies a new big down swing).

It's really a tough call, especially due to the stock implicit volatility and current market behavior, but we'll introduce an aggressive stop level and trust that ASTI will react positively on this support area (if not, we'll drop this position). The risks of this aggressive stop level, is that we may be wiped out due to «market noise» (that's why it's a tough call)... the new trading plan is:

Trading Plan:
HOLD ASTI with a stop @ $11.45