ASTI

[Ramsburg]

ASTI stopped @ $11.45

[la-onda]

up and down.... 

nice recovery today 

[danman3459]

Yes, today was absolutely beautiful on this stock.  I dropped half my position near high of day.  It looks like ~15 is totally feasible now.

[setravis]

updated chart look...
This looks real tempting...click, click ...

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
10.40%above 13-day MA
-3.98%below 50-day MA
RS Rating: 67 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $153.57 
P/E Ratio: 6.37 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 07/29/2008
Last Analyst Rating: Buy

[la-onda]

US Air Force Awards Ascent Solar High Efficiency Solar Cell Program
Monday , June 30, 2008 15:48ET

LITTLETON, Colo., Jun 30, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc. ("Ascent Solar") (NASDAQ:ASTI), a developer of state-of-the-art, thin-film photovoltaic materials, announced today that the US Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) has selected Ascent Solar for a Broad Agency Announcement award to develop high-performance thin-film multijunction photovoltaics (PV) based on Ascent Solar's flexible monolithically integrated CIGS technology. The new contract represents approximately $1.5 million in value over a 48-month period.

Since 1995, AFRL has provided funding for the development of the flexible CIGS at ITN Energy Systems, Inc. and now at Ascent Solar, including the development of aspects of future multijunction devices. Multijunction solar cells are two or more solar cells in a stack, where each solar cell collects a specific portion of the solar spectrum. The top cell in this configuration collects the blue portion of the solar spectrum, the bottom cell collects the red portion of the spectrum, and cells in between collect the rest of the visible spectrum. This type of technology can result in higher performance and lower losses when translating from the small-area cell level to monolithically integrated modules.

Ascent Solar Chief Technical Officer Dr. Joseph Armstrong stated, "We are excited about this new opportunity to work with AFRL. The program will support the continued development of our new multijunction technology platform from which we intend to proceed with multijunction devices and prototype module demonstrations. Efficient conversion of the sun's energy is very critical to space and near-space applications, in that higher efficiencies correlate to smaller, lighter-weight solar arrays, and significantly lower launch cost. The technology that we intend to develop under this new program should also benefit our terrestrial building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) applications, such as roofing tiles and building facades that operate at elevated temperatures."

[AussieTrader]

Trading Idea:
I want to get a position back in ASTI. I believe we have a compelling risk reward set up here from both a fundamental and technical perspective.

Fundamental:

1) ASTI got financing from the issuance of more shares back in May. Those shares were priced at $14 each and the allocation was over-subscribed. Point being here that for the immediate future dilution is done, they have financing for there investment and growth plans.

2) They are starting to get contracts with revenue behind them (see the histroical thread I have attached here most recently contract with US Air Force.

3) The use of solar power is of course a long long term compelling reality

Technical:

The stock has just reversed off significant support zone around $9. In March when it hit the same area it ran up to the $17 ceiling in a short period of time. I anticipate ASTI could do something similar from where it is now. So my aim for initiating this trade is a technically attractive entry with relative low risk which could lead to a 'return to price range in the $14 to $17 zone' Therfore the risk reward set up looks good.

Now, ASTI is a future solar play unlike some of the big solar companies who are producing and selling products now they have a technology which is compelling for future applications. I say that because I am starting this trade with a projected sell target in mind ($14 to $17 range) and not (currently) a long term hold for their business model to reach significant revenue production. A stop will be introduced at a later update, but suffice to say you can see on the chart its zone.

Trade Plan:

Buy ASTI at or around the open

[la-onda]

1)
JP Morgan has started to cover ASTI with neutral. Is there any chance to get an update?
2)
Insider have bought some shares on July 15th

[AussieTrader]

Update:

Not a lot to comment so far for ASTI. Solars haven't been acting too well these past few sessions as oil pulls back, however ASTI has held up fairly well.

Yes indeed JPM have initiated coverage, in fact since End May Cowan, Jeffries, Ardour and Merriman have also initiated coverage. Now is there a consensus amongst them? Yes they are all different!!! From Neutral to Hold to Buy to Outperform. Obviously we can't rely on analysts for our positions, but for sure we can review what leads them to their conclusions and use that as part of our overall approach.

It's always good to see any insider purchase, but it is only really a useful indicator if there is some real volume associated with it, but nice to see nonetheless.

Technically ASTI is holding the $9.00 area, volume is low and there are lots of lower shadow candles indicating the trading area has decent support.

No change to the trade plan at the moment

Trade Plan:

HOLD ASTI

[la-onda]

ASTI: Short Interest UP 32.4% to 2.4M in Mid Jul 2008
Thursday , July 24, 2008 16:16ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc. (NasdaqNM: ASTI) INCREASED 32.4% to 2,361,589 shares as reported in mid-July, 2008.
Based on ASTI's 20-day average daily share volume of 439,270, it would require approximately 6 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

nice short attack on ASTI ! 
ASTI: Drops -2.97%; Vol +130%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Thursday , July 24, 2008 16:22ET

During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc. (NasdaqNM: ASTI) demonstrated a strong DOWNWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.

sym: ASTI      @13:30 ET        @CLOSE      % CHANGE
----------   -----------   -----------  ------------
PRICE              $8.75         $8.49        -2.97%
VOLUME            96,765       222,394      +129.83%
#TRADES              481           965      +100.62%
DAY-HI             $9.19         $9.19           N/A
DAY-LO             $8.73         $8.40       LATE-LO

[AussieTrader]

Update:

Thanks for that info La-onda, that is an interesting Knobias calculation on the volume analysis.

There was a selloff into the close on ASTI although the total volume was nothing abnormal. That said I am not liking the price action, however relative to the overall marketplace it just mirrors what took place.

Norsk Hydro which have a 30% holding in ASTI announced plans for future investment in Solar (not specifically ASTI) the link is here;

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL22100829120080722

I won't put a hard stop in today, suffice to say (like when the trade was opened) you can see on the chart where the trade loses it's appeal. A close below $8 area will be that sign.

Trade Plan:

HOLD ASTI

[AussieTrader]

Update:

All solars got a big run up yesterday. I don't see any particular reason why all solars got busy, but we are in earnings season and it is likely that many will be giving good reports and guidance. I very much like the solar sector over the long term and will look for another play to add shortly.

Technically ASTI bounced off the floor noted on the chart, it is still deciding what to do (as is the whole market). There is nothing new from a fundamental perspective to add. The trade plan remains the same.

Trade Plan:
HOLD ASTI

[danman3459]

FSLR posted stellar earnings!  Looks good for this sector tomorrow!

[berloga]

Could you please provide an update? Why a sudden jump of 15% 2 days ago... Can you also remind why would ASTI be a compelling investment choice for an investor into solar sector? This may help keep one's head straight. Thanx!

[AussieTrader]

Update:

Hey Berloga and others, I have been deliberately light on ASTI updates purely because it has been scrabbling along the floor (as I have on my chart) with no change in fundamental news or information that changes our resoning for the trade. In the past few sessions the solar sector has woken up again and that has been catalysed by some great quarter results, guidance, the Californian plans for building the huge solar power plants and the involvement of SPWR (read the SOL thread for details). Basically money has been rotating (again) out of the speculator driven financials bounce, back into stocks with solid fundamentals and future high growth prospects.

ASTI has bounced itself off the floor amid all the above reasons, they also anounced the purchase of some state of the art manufacturing equipment for their ramp up of volume thin film production http://www.pv-tech.org/thin_film/article/tool_order_ascent_solar_selects_8_roll_to_roll_wet_chemical_coating_machine and I also saw there was some 'talk' about Norsk (one of their key backers) investing more money (but that was just coincidental chatter).

Technically ASTI is setting up a nice potential continuation pattern which is consolidating just below the 50ema following a nice volume backed 15% gain on Aug 20th.

No change to the trade plan required at this stage. I am liking Solar and alternative energy, if we get a bull market shaping up expect more positions in those sectors.

Trade Plan:

HOLD ASTI

[la-onda]

additional information:

BUYINS.NET: NCC, ASTI, BBEP, DRYS, MCHX, PTNR Have Been Removed From Naked Short List Today
Monday , August 18, 2008 04:03ET
.....

Ascent Solar Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTI) a development stage company, engages in the commercialization of certain photovoltaic (PV) technology developed by ITN Energy Systems, Inc. for space satellite, near-space, and terrestrial markets. Its PV modules use a thin film copper-indium-gallium-diselenide semiconductor material on a flexible plastic substrate. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Littleton, Colorado. With 14.05 million shares outstanding and 2.36 million shares declared short as of July 2008, there is no longer a failure to deliver in shares of ASTI. According to quarterly data provided by the SEC, there were still 272,928 shares of ASTI that were failing-to-deliver as of September 28, 2007.

cheers
Oliver