ASTI

[David Randolph]

So far today ASTI  is down .31 and DSTI is up .39   When DSTI gets its financing, it will make a major move 'cause it has some large contracts in hand. Also, Hillary didn't visit that plant twice this year for her health.

Ahhhh, I knew you would come up on me with intraday results

In 6 months we'll compare ASTI and DSTI and you'll tell me which one was the best.

Good luck on both!

[kslifka]

So far today ASTI  is down .31 and DSTI is up .39   When DSTI gets its financing, it will make a major move 'cause it has some large contracts in hand. Also, Hillary didn't visit that plant twice this year for her health.

Ahhhh, I knew you would come up on me with intraday results

In 6 months we'll compare ASTI and DSTI and you'll tell me which one was the best.

Good luck on both!

I bought DSTI yesterday and bought ASTI this morning on a pull-back.  Looking real good here.

[David Randolph]

Yeah, six months from now I hope ASTI went up 100% and DSTI up 99%

[wisebuys]

Any thoughts on SOEN?

Thanks.

[eggman11]

Hi David,

I am surprised by this pick and especially its inclusion in the 3 stocks on fire. It kinds of goes against what you have previously mentioned as to looking for in a stock. It has had a huge run-up and won't have any revenues until 2008, it is a recent IPO, and they will need to further dilute the stock before they have any revenues. 

[tokyopua]

Reposting my question from the other porfolio board 

"I am curious about this play too.  I dipped a toe in the water on this one too at 8.95, though not a big position as I was worried about the 10ema being so far behind.  I guess what I am curious about is if you could elaborate on maybe other examples you have seen where a large company buys a stake in a small company and it was really positive, as that seemed to really excite you yesterday."

I can see the logic behind it, just wanna learn a bit more detail.  Like, even if I had seen this news yesterday morning I wouldnt have known it could go so high that day just on a 25% stake, even though the purchasing company was much larger, but clearly you did!

[mbaugh]

David, does the recent private placement increase the share count.  Based on the PR, it sounds to me like the shares were coming from the already 5.3 million shares outstanding.  If this is the case, then no dilution took place. 

As for my earlier post on the 3stocks board, I'm sorry for posting it under the wrong thread.  I agree with your analysis in terms of the longer-term picture, I became frustrated because I felt that the stock was falling too fast.  I figured that since it is a low market cap, why the sudden sell off and or did the new owners of the private placement short the shares. 

[eggman11]

David,

I know you want us to post certain questions about the holdings on this board and not the free board, which is totally understandable, but the questions and comments seem to get answered a lot quicker on the free board, which really doesn't make sense. Shouldn't you pay more attention to paying subscribers.

With ASTI,

I disagree with your logic, at 39B dollar company invests 9M in a small company, could be their speculative money. The probably spend more a year on toilet paper. Cisco is well known for investing in smaller tech companies. Some work out, and some of them don't, but they are so huge it doesn't matter.

Lately, you have been more erratic in your trading - in the past 3 weeks you went bullish to bearish to slightly bullish, bought options and then regretted it, changing strategy on stocks on fire from short term to long term, buying stocks back that you have previously sold. buying stocks with characteristics that you previously mentioned as negative. CIMT, SILC do not file 10K. ASTI no revenues until 2008, Dilution in the future, Recent IPO.  

[Dory99]

Hi David,

You produced a very thorough in-depth video analysis on CHINA. Do you have a similar analysis prepared on ASTI?

I purchased ASTI today at $8.85/shr.

Thanks.

Dory99

[David Randolph]

Any thoughts on SOEN?

Thanks.

SOEN.OB, quickly. Chart is awesome, moved up 20% today (but down 9% after hours). Market cap is $122 M. Revenues $0. Losing about $500 K a quarter. Book value is $4.1 M. There was the following news out:

• Solar EnerTech Announces $8 Million Sale and OEM Agreement in Principle
Market Wire (Tue, Mar 13)

Good news, gives hope about the medium term future. Solar energy is the future, SOEN.OB gave an important step to be part of that future.

Hi David,

I am surprised by this pick and especially its inclusion in the 3 stocks on fire. It kinds of goes against what you have previously mentioned as to looking for in a stock. It has had a huge run-up and won't have any revenues until 2008, it is a recent IPO, and they will need to further dilute the stock before they have any revenues. 

The 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio has to be changed from the "top 3" to the top small cap momentum stocks portfolio or something like that. As the name implies, "Fire" means high potential holdings. Anyway, still need to think some more about this.

It has had a huge run-up and won't have any revenues until 2008, it is a recent IPO, and they will need to further dilute the stock before they have any revenues.

I don't think they will have to dilute because they have $22 M in cash and just $0.5 M in debt. It had a huge run up, but I believe it should run up another 100%, at least, to be valued according to its peers.

Reposting my question from the other porfolio board 

"I am curious about this play too.  I dipped a toe in the water on this one too at 8.95, though not a big position as I was worried about the 10ema being so far behind.  I guess what I am curious about is if you could elaborate on maybe other examples you have seen where a large company buys a stake in a small company and it was really positive, as that seemed to really excite you yesterday."

I can see the logic behind it, just wanna learn a bit more detail.  Like, even if I had seen this news yesterday morning I wouldnt have known it could go so high that day just on a 25% stake, even though the purchasing company was much larger, but clearly you did!

Yes, I wish I had seen the news yesterday morning. The logic is simple: if a $39 B company buys a stake in a small company, that not only means money for the small company, it means the micro cap will benefit from the contacts and knowledge of the bigger company. I've seen this happen several times but unfortunately can't remember one example right here, right now. I'll come back to the topic later.

David, does the recent private placement increase the share count.  Based on the PR, it sounds to me like the shares were coming from the already 5.3 million shares outstanding.  If this is the case, then no dilution took place. 

As for my earlier post on the 3stocks board, I'm sorry for posting it under the wrong thread.  I agree with your analysis in terms of the longer-term picture, I became frustrated because I felt that the stock was falling too fast.  I figured that since it is a low market cap, why the sudden sell off and or did the new owners of the private placement short the shares. 

I believe Hydro made a strategic, not speculative, investment on ASTI. Yes, it definitely increased the share count because previously the share count was 5.3 million, and the press release says NHY bought 1.6 million shares  representing 23% of the company.  If 1.6 million is 23%, the total share count is 1,600,000/0.23 = 6,956,522, so the share count rose about 1.65 million, which matches the 1.6 million shares issued to NHY.

David,

I know you want us to post certain questions about the holdings on this board and not the free board, which is totally understandable, but the questions and comments seem to get answered a lot quicker on the free board, which really doesn't make sense. Shouldn't you pay more attention to paying subscribers.

1 update per trading day on all holdings. No less and no more.

With ASTI,

I disagree with your logic, at 39B dollar company invests 9M in a small company, could be their speculative money. The probably spend more a year on toilet paper.

It doesn't look like a speculative bet, from what I read in the following article:

• Norsk Hydro Buys Big Stake in Tiny Ascent Solar
at SmartMoney.com (Wed 3:23pm)

So, you think NHY bought this $9.2 M stake to sell it a bit later and get a $1 or $2 M profit? They wouldn't even travel from Norway for that.

Lately, you have been more erratic in your trading - in the past 3 weeks you went bullish to bearish to slightly bullish, bought options and then regretted it, changing strategy on stocks on fire from short term to long term, buying stocks back that you have previously sold.

Yep, it has been a tough job the last month or so. Yet, the Main Portfolio is up 9.18% in 2007 and the S&P 500 is down 1.83% over the same period. I'm working to get back on track for good.

buying stocks with characteristics that you previously mentioned as negative. CIMT, SILC do not file 10K.

Well, both those companies are Israeli companies and you know they never file the 10-Q, just the 20 form. Despite that, there are Israeli companies worth billions of dollars. Of course, I would prefer the forms 10, but I believe other fundamental strengths of these two companies compensate the lack of forms 10.

ASTI no revenues until 2008, Dilution in the future, Recent IPO.   

They have $22 M in cash, why dilute?

Hi David,

You produced a very thorough in-depth video analysis on CHINA. Do you have a similar analysis prepared on ASTI?

I purchased ASTI today at $8.85/shr.

Thanks.

Dory99

Hi Dory99, ASTI is a very different kind of play. It is like a biotechnology play, but this one I understand well. They make these thin film panels that are starting to be used to give energy to modern buildings:



The market for this stuff is growing 70% a year:

«The solar market is growing rapidly. Since 1998 there has been an annual growth of approximately 40 per cent in the market for conventional solar energy and it has been reported that the market for thin film technologies is growing at roughly 70 percent annually.»

I'll keep updating this thread with more in depth analysis.

The stock went up 90% yesterday and down 9% today. Big deal. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see it at $16-$20 in a couple of months, because, the market wants to invest in alternative energy, all companies have stratospheric multiples, but this one is even better because it is being sponsored by NHY, a company with operations in 40 countries and 32,000 employees.

I'll continue holding ASTI with strong hands.

[kslifka]

I've been watching these solar plays since the beginning of the year.  I  bought ASTI today at 8.35.  Initially I was going to wait until it dropped to about half way down the white candle around 7.50 or as David has it marked at 7.54.  So people that bought today, I wouldn't be too worried.  It very well may go down to 7.54ish tomorrow which wuuld be a good buying opportunity in my mind.

A couple of other low market cap solar plays:

DLSL.ob is a profitable penny stock with a market cap of 16 million and annual revenues of 20 million.  I bought it just above a $1 a few weeks ago.

SPIR is another small market cap of 85 million.  It isn't profitable but quarterly revenues have been increasing.  I currently don't own but I did ride it up on the recent run up.

[pompano]

"I disagree with your logic, at 39B dollar company invests 9M in a small company, could be their speculative money. The probably spend more a year on toilet paper."


If I could just add to this.  You are thinking about this the wrong way.  Norsk being a "39" billion dollar company isn't really relavent.  What is relavent is they now own 23% of ASTI, with a opportunity to own another 12% in the future.  That would put them only 16% away from being the controlling party.

[eggman11]

Any thoughts on SOEN?

Thanks.

I don't think they will have to dilute because they have $22 M in cash and just $0.5 M in debt. It had a huge run up, but I believe it should run up another 100%, at least, to be valued according to its peers.

David
I think there will be more dilution, because they plan on building a plant from scratch and other expenses. 22M will not be enough to keep them going until their start having positive cash flow. They don't even expect to have revenues until 2008, let alone profits. Hopefully they will be able to take on a little debt instead of issuing more shares if Norsk Hydro cosigns the loan

You mention that it should run up another 100% to be valued according to its peers. How do you determine that evaluation based on comapnies with no revenues? Please post your analysis.

My previous example with Cisco is they make a lot of investments in smaller tech companies,not to make capital gains on a small investment. Cisco and probably Norsk Hydro make investment in smaller companies, to get a foothold on new technologies and new markets. If they own part of a small company. they have an inside track to new technology. That is how leader Cisco keeps its advantage. Sometimes they work out, sometimes they don't. I am a big believer that alternative energy is hot and remain so.

In the US where I live. When Democrats are in power alternative energy stocks perform a lot better. (Democrats are seen as a lot more eco-friendly and provide more funding and research for these causes). I our latest elections, the democrats did phenominally well. and if they win the presidency next year, they provide a boost to alternative energy stocks.

For Anyone with detailed knowledge

What is difference between ASTI technology and their competitors?

Thanks

[rudynostalgia]

DayStar (DSTI) has been desparately looking for financing so they go into large scale produciton. Could it be that Norsk will supply the $? 

[kslifka]

DayStar (DSTI) has been desparately looking for financing so they go into large scale produciton. Could it be that Norsk will supply the $? 

DSTI and ASTI stocks have been running in tandem over the past month???

Something appears to be going on between the two.