TSL

[David Randolph]

TSL is a much more secure company than ASTI (what a miss yesterday, this cold hand , congrats to the ones who are still holding), with very strong revenue and EPS growth.

So, on TSL it was easy to make a full video analysis with comprehensive and maybe even conservative long term estimates pointing to a 35% average annual price per share growth rate for the next 10 years:
<object width="500" height="450"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/wjl6ctDQkXo"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/wjl6ctDQkXo" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="500" height="450"></embed></object>

The fact that TSL has 87% of its revenues coming from Germany alone and 100% of them coming from Europe is very encouraging, because just imagine when they expand their sales force throughout America and Asia

I gave it a 9 on a 1-10 scale and I recommend buying it for the Main Portfolio, 6.66% of capital as always.

(if I had bought yesterday I would now be 8% ahead, but we're all humans, and I was sick yesterday)

[berloga]

David, I am still holding ASTI - only for the technical reasons, as you also mentioned the chart looked short term bullish. Could you please just comment on the technical development for ASTI and suggest an exit point?

Thank you.
Berloga.

[David Randolph]

David, I am still holding ASTI - only for the technical reasons, as you also mentioned the chart looked short term bullish. Could you please just comment on the technical development for ASTI and suggest an exit point?

Thank you.
Berloga.

I would sell today at the open on the current gap up, as I don't see prices above $11 as a short term possibility (but I can be wrong).

[ygtrdr]

I bought TSL a few days back David. Makes me feel much better about my purchase to have you in the stock. 

[David Randolph]

I bought TSL a few days back David. Makes me feel much better about my purchase to have you in the stock. 

Thanks for your kind words ygtrdr

The past:



And the expected future:



... show an incredible growth story. If the company doesn't spoil it all by diluting shareholder's value too much (I'm considering 3% a year on average going forward), I believe we have an outstanding pick here.

I'll keep holding TSL.

[David Randolph]

From what I've been reading about TSL, the only barrier to growth is the company's manufacturing capacity. TSL is expected to double its capacity in 2007:

«As of September 30, 2006, we had an annual module manufacturing capacity of 59.8 megawatts (MW). We expect to increase our total annual module manufacturing capacity to 75 MW by the end of 2006 and to 150 MW by the end of 2007.»

Technically the stock still has a small gap opened between $42.7 and $43, so it may retrace just a bit more, but with the fundamentals I see I don't expect it to stay down for long.

I'll keep studying and holding TSL.

[David Randolph]

The growth of the solar market is impressive, I should look for more solar energy plays:

«The solar power market has grown significantly in the past several years. According to Photon Consulting, an independent solar energy research firm, the global solar power market as measured by annual solar power production increased by 41.7% from 1.2 gigawatt (GW) in 2004 to 1.7 GW in 2005. During the same period, solar power industry revenues grew from approximately $8 billion in 2004 to approximately $12 billion in 2005. Photon Consulting projects that solar power industry revenues and solar power production will reach $72 billion and 10.4 GW, respectively, by 2010. Solar power production is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate, or CAGR of 43.7% from 2005 to 2010, driven largely by rising grid prices, government initiatives and new distribution channels, according to Photon Consulting.»

For now I have TSL and I won't leave it.

[cumulina]

David - if you are looking for other solar stock, here are the ones I have on my wish-list:

STP

CSIQ

...and then good, little SOEN.OB, wich I bought at 1.01 and more at 1.34 

DSTI is a "maybe" because of recent problems, but it seems they're fixing those
ESLR is also a "maybe" - I'm not quite sure why they hav had this recent turbulence?

[David Randolph]

David - if you are looking for other solar stock, here are the ones I have on my wish-list:

STP

CSIQ

...and then good, little SOEN.OB, wich I bought at 1.01 and more at 1.34 

DSTI is a "maybe" because of recent problems, but it seems they're fixing those
ESLR is also a "maybe" - I'm not quite sure why they hav had this recent turbulence?

Thanks for these suggestions cumulina, I'll put them on today's poll. Congrats for SOEN.OB, huge rally

As for TSL there wasn't any news out and the stock continues to trade within that symmetrical triangle formation. There's still a small gap opened between $42.7 and $43. The stock may go down that bit to close the gap before jumping higher, respecting the indication given by the very attractive fundamentals.

[David Randolph]

TSL was the only green light in the Main Portfolio yesterday, so I couldn't be more pleased with this holding. Technically the stock is about to decide if it wants to break the triangle symmetrical pattern to the upside or the downside. I believe that, given the fundamentals, it will breakout on the upside and I'll keep holding TSL.

[David Randolph]

The only fear I have on TSL is dilution, because it is a recent IPO stock and usually those dilute  shareholder's value right after the IPO.

The balance sheet doesn't show that need, since the current ratio is 2.25 and working capital is $110 M, but we never know. Anyway, I saw 35% average annual long term share price appreciation, already considering 3% annual dilution, so, if instead of 3% we get 10% dilution, TSL would still be a great long term holding.

I'll keep holding TSL.

[David Randolph]

I believe it is important for TSL to make a bullish breakout of the current symmetrical pattern formation, because that will show everybody that the company isn't conducting a massive dilution campaign. My long term estimates point to about 3% average annual dilution and I wouldn't like to see much more than that.

Currently support stands at $42.74 and resistance at $47.85. The technical pattern will close by April's end. I'll keep holding TSL.

[berloga]

Can we look at the grander triangle, like this? In this case TSL must break up sooner than later.

[David Randolph]

Can we look at the grander triangle, like this? In this case TSL must break up sooner than later.

Sure, why not? Technical analysis is an art, not a science

Currently support stands at $42.74 and resistance at $47.85.

TSL approached the $47.85 resistance level, as the high of the day was $47.6. Tomorrow this resistance will stand at $47.72. Volume picked up considerably to 1.2 million shares changing hands. If the stock is able to breakout of this symmetrical triangle formation, the dilution fear will be somewhat put aside, and TSL will surely run to a new all time high above $51.

Let's see what happens from a technical standpoint, since we already know fundamental analysis gives us a quite attractive long term proposition.

I'll keep holding TSL.

[BigSully1]

Looks like TSL and SPWR both making breakout attempts today.