CSIQ

[kslifka]

CSIQ really held up well compared to many of the other solars that got battered.  The better solar companies with good fundamentals and high prospects are really starting to diverge from the other plays.  Amazing CSIQ was down to $16 pre-market because of SPWR earnings report this morning only to close above $19.  CSIQ  has had strong action during this consolidation. 

Technically we still have a few hurdles...one of which is the over-all market volatility.   

If we get a close above the 9ema soon...everything should set-up for a nice ride upwards.

[bjc]

CSIQ should be a stock that will lead the market if we can continue to rally back. 

Futures up this morning and every stock I follow basically, but the market tendency lately would be to sell into a rally.  We'll see if we can get some follow through and maybe some short covering.

[la-onda]

Canadian Solar Rises After Upgrade
Wednesday January 30, 7:17 pm ET
Canadian Solar Shares Rise After Analyst Upgrades, Citing Recent Pullback in Stock Price

NEW YORK (AP) -- Canadian Solar Inc. stock rose on Wednesday after an analyst upgraded the solar power equipment company, citing a recent stock sell-off and an improved outlook for its production ramp. Shares of the Canada-based company rose 8 cents to close at $18.55. Its stock has dropped more than 34 percent in 2008 as investors flocked to investments generally seen as safer amid recessionary concerns. Most other solar stocks fell, too.

Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Adam Hinckley upgraded the stock to "Outperform" from "Perform" in a note Tuesday evening saying its share-price decline "is excessive in light of improving fundamentals."

Hinckley indicated that the company's ramp-up of solar-cell production is on schedule and that its fourth-quarter results "will exceed expectations." He also said Canadian Solar's openness about fixed-price contracts will provide for less of a cost surprise than its peers. Additionally, Hinckley said Canadian Solar's profit guidance is "conservative," and doesn't factor in added production from its plans to more than double capacity by mid-2008.

[bjc]

Market is up 1.5% and CSIQ can't even muster green.

I am seriously about ready to give up. I lost focus about a month ago and I have just been reeling ever since.

I made 65% or so in 07 and now pretty much all of it is gone.  Since jan 07 i am only up 18.9%.  I guess I'm not doing too bad when I put in in perspective, but damn.

I was in the red today...barely, so depressing.  I want to smoke about 25 cigarettes in a row and then take about 15 bong hits.  And then maybe 5 shots of whatever you put in front of me..


At least LOST starts back up tonight. 

[kslifka]

Yeah...all solars have struggled.  The leaders at the end of 2007 have been lagging in January of 2008.  It's all about sector rotation.

I actually sold CSIQ a few days ago...but looking to get back in when the solars start showing signs of life again.  With CSIQ down around 50% from the top in late December...CSIQ will probably be range bound for a little while.  CSIQ may actually drop down to $16...if the market remains volatile.

Watching level 2 today...I could see that shorts and MM's really have control of price action with the lower than normal volume.

With financials coming off the bottom...I think Tech will really start to see a recovery in the next couple of weeks.  Hopefully solars will follow suit.

[bjc]

The solars are having a good day.

If I hadn't broken trading rules I would buy me some SOLF too.  I can't use unsettled funds though...we'll see what happens.  I'm loaded to the brim with CSIQ and also have a small amount of LDK.

[la-onda]

from Zacks:
Canadian Solar (CSIQ) is still rated a Zacks Rank #1, and rose last week after receiving an upgrade to "Outperform" from "Perform" by Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Adam Hinckley. He said that its share-price decline "is excessive in light of improving fundamentals." Hinckley indicated that the company's ramp-up of solar-cell production is on schedule and that its fourth-quarter results "will exceed expectations." He also said Canadian Solar's openness about fixed-price contracts will provide for less of a cost surprise than its peers.

&

CSIQ: Oppenheimer Ups to Outperform from Sector Perform; Sets Tgt @ $27; Analyst Notes
Wednesday, January 30, 2008 08:21ET
Issuer: Canadian Solar, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: CSIQ)
Analyst Firm:  Oppenheimer
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Outperform (from Sector Perform)
Target Price: $27.00
Analyst Comments: The firm upgraded the shares after channel checks indicated the company's internal cell ramp is proceeding on plan. They are more positive on shares following the recent pullback.

&

CSIQ: Banc of Amer Ups to Buy from Neutral; Sets Tgt @ $28; Analyst Notes
Wednesday, January 23, 2008 07:55ET
Issuer: Canadian Solar, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: CSIQ)
Analyst Firm:  Banc of America
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Buy (from Neutral)
Target Price: $28.00
Analyst Comments: The firm is upgrading CSIQ to Buy from Neutral after a 34% decline YTD (vs. –11% for the SPX) amid concerns regarding the implications of higher module supply. Given its relative market position, they believe that CSIQ warrants a discount to industry leaders including FSLR and STP. However, they find shares of CSIQ compelling at 10x their FY08 EPS estimate of $1.86 given 1) strong visibility on FY08 results and 2) the potential for upside from CSIQ's foray into metallurgical silicon.

Chart:

[bjc]

I'm selling my CSIQ at $50+. 

Hopefully, FSLR set the tone for solars this earnings season.  If CSIQ can announce the earnings analysts expect, or better yet beat them, the stock still has some serious catching up to do.

FSLR is up more in MKT cap today than CSIQ is worth, yet CSIQ revenues are only expected to be 20% less than FSLR's in 2008.  FSLR captures better margin but I'm still convinced CSIQ has very much catching up to do.  We'll see i suppose! 

[la-onda]

Solar Industry: First Solar, AMAT Report Strong Sales Growth
Wednesday, February 13, 2008 08:23ET

First Solar (FSLR) and Applied Materials (AMAT) are up 14% and 5% respectively in pre-market trading thanks to better than expected advanced thin film semiconductor sales growth for the solar power industry. First Solar reported 281% Y/Y sales growth in Q4 to $200.8 million, 11.5% above the consensus estimate. Other solar names including CSIQ, ESLR, HOKU, JASO, LDK, SOLF, SPWR, TSL & WFR are advancing as well.

[kslifka]

Up after earnings.  I don't own...It looks like it may break out of the triangle.

[la-onda]

CSIQ: Broadpoint Ups to Strong Buy from Neutral; Sets Tgt @ $29; Analyst Notes
Thursday , March 06, 2008 09:29ET
Issuer: Canadian Solar, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: CSIQ)
Analyst Firm:  Broadpoint Securities Group, Inc
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Strong Buy (from Neutral)
Target Price: $29.00
Analyst Comments: The firm upgraded the shares with a $29 target to reflect the company's potential upside and margin expansion.

[setravis]

Some actively traded companies among small caps:
Canadian Solar Inc (NasdaqGM:CSIQ), IPG Photonics Corp (NasdaqGS:IPGP) and China Natural Resources Inc (NasdaqCM:CHNR) are also among the most actively traded companies.

Must also clear the resistance at around $31.50
And it's really one of the power sources of the future!

52wk Range: 6.50 - 31.44
Volume: 3,971,257
Avg Vol (3m): 1,823,090

Technicals
Percentage Gainer
Price Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
17.26%above 13-day MA
31.95%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 97 

Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on May 13

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $744.08 
P/E Ratio: N/A 
PEG Ratio: 0.85 
Next Earnings: 05/13/2008
Last Analyst Rating: Buy

[setravis]

CSIQ's Earnings Cause Solar Rally but
Quake May Have Impacted Supply


Tuesday's session saw a perfect storm present itself after oil
reversed earlier losses and set another new all time record.
Reports indicated that the US Senate defeated a Republican
plan to open new domestic areas to oil drilling but the highs
saw a pullback after the Senate did approve a plan to stop
filling the Strategic Petroleum Stockpile until prices fell below
$75 per barrel.
With the price rise in oil, the solar sector would have come into play. But with Canadian Solar
Inc. (CSIQ) reporting better than expected earnings, the sector saw a huge rally on the day.
Canadian Solar reported net revenues for the quarter of $171.2 million (including $2.2 million
of silicon material sales), compared to net revenues of $17.5 million for the first quarter of
2007 (including $2.8 million of silicon materials sales) and $127.5 million for the fourth quarter
of 2007 (including $2.4 million of silicon materials sales). Net income for the quarter was
$19.0 million, or $0.61 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $3.9 million, or $0.14 per
diluted share, for the first quarter of 2007 and net income of $5.9 million, or $0.21 per diluted
share, for the fourth quarter of 2007. If share-based compensation expenses of $2.2 million
were excluded, non-GAAP net income for the quarter would have been $21.2 million, or $0.65
per diluted share.
The significant upside was mainly contributed by three factors -- strong pricing, the strong
Euro vs. USD, and their internal cost cutting. The Company noted that the large foreign exchange
gain was likely a one-time event, but they believed that the other factors would remain
positive which would help them maintain a similar level of profitability going forward.
Following the report and the oil rally, shares of Canadian Solar soared over 25% which caused
many other names in the sector to see increased buying as well. CSUN (+9%), EMKR (+9%),
FSLR (+4.5%), and JASO (+4.3%) were all higher on the day.
But as many already know, China has experienced a devastating earthquake which was centered
just north of the Sichuan provincial capital Chengdu in central China, destroying urban
areas and mountain villages. In a research note, Caylon Securities felt that the massive quake
may have impacted many polysilicon producers. Polysilicon plants in the region, however, did
not experience structural damage.
But with the more than 10,000 estimated lost in the tragedy, workers would be lucky to have
not experienced a loss in their immediate family and friends. Solar cell makers who may have
been impacted from suppliers in this region include Yingli Green Energy Holdings (YGE), Solarfun
Power Holdings (SOLF), and possibly Suntech Power Holdings (STP). Shares of YGE
were up 3.75%, SOLF was up 6.7%, while STP was up 6%. With more news reports regarding
the damage from the Chinese quake, investors would be wise to follow these names for any
news of disrupted polysilicon supply.

[setravis]

CSIQ's Earnings Cause Solar Rally but
Quake May Have Impacted Supply


Tuesday's session saw a perfect storm present itself after oil
reversed earlier losses and set another new all time record.
Reports indicated that the US Senate defeated a Republican
plan to open new domestic areas to oil drilling but the highs
saw a pullback after the Senate did approve a plan to stop
filling the Strategic Petroleum Stockpile until prices fell below
$75 per barrel.
With the price rise in oil, the solar sector would have come into play. But with Canadian Solar
Inc. (CSIQ) reporting better than expected earnings, the sector saw a huge rally on the day.
Canadian Solar reported net revenues for the quarter of $171.2 million (including $2.2 million
of silicon material sales), compared to net revenues of $17.5 million for the first quarter of
2007 (including $2.8 million of silicon materials sales) and $127.5 million for the fourth quarter
of 2007 (including $2.4 million of silicon materials sales). Net income for the quarter was
$19.0 million, or $0.61 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $3.9 million, or $0.14 per
diluted share, for the first quarter of 2007 and net income of $5.9 million, or $0.21 per diluted
share, for the fourth quarter of 2007. If share-based compensation expenses of $2.2 million
were excluded, non-GAAP net income for the quarter would have been $21.2 million, or $0.65
per diluted share.
The significant upside was mainly contributed by three factors -- strong pricing, the strong
Euro vs. USD, and their internal cost cutting. The Company noted that the large foreign exchange
gain was likely a one-time event, but they believed that the other factors would remain
positive which would help them maintain a similar level of profitability going forward.
Following the report and the oil rally, shares of Canadian Solar soared over 25% which caused
many other names in the sector to see increased buying as well. CSUN (+9%), EMKR (+9%),
FSLR (+4.5%), and JASO (+4.3%) were all higher on the day.
But as many already know, China has experienced a devastating earthquake which was centered
just north of the Sichuan provincial capital Chengdu in central China, destroying urban
areas and mountain villages. In a research note, Caylon Securities felt that the massive quake
may have impacted many polysilicon producers. Polysilicon plants in the region, however, did
not experience structural damage.
But with the more than 10,000 estimated lost in the tragedy, workers would be lucky to have
not experienced a loss in their immediate family and friends. Solar cell makers who may have
been impacted from suppliers in this region include Yingli Green Energy Holdings (YGE), Solarfun
Power Holdings (SOLF), and possibly Suntech Power Holdings (STP). Shares of YGE
were up 3.75%, SOLF was up 6.7%, while STP was up 6%. With more news reports regarding
the damage from the Chinese quake, investors would be wise to follow these names for any
news of disrupted polysilicon supply.

[la-onda]

fyi:
CSIQ: Lazard Freres Keeps @ Buy; Ups Tgt to $50 vs $24; Analyst Notes
Tuesday , May 13, 2008 15:14ET
Issuer: Canadian Solar, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: CSIQ)
Analyst Firm:  Lazard Freres
Ratings Action: REITERATION
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price Action: INCREASE
Target Price: $50.00 (+108.33% from $24.00)
Analyst Comments: The firm raised their CSIQ EPS estimate to $2.15 from $1.30 and 2009 to $3.40 from $1.60 to reflect continued traction and capacity ramp.