JAKK

[David Randolph]

A FORM-4   Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities was filed today.

Sorry I'm having a dumb blonde moment. I do not see the address to link. So, I just copy and past the information. I hope someone can help me out.

No problem Houlahan, here's a link: JAKK Form 4

What happened here was that the Chairman and CEO of Jakks, Mr. Jack Friedman, bought options to buy 175,000 shares at $16.25. He paid those options with shares he already had, valued at $26.42. Those shares, 107,637 in total, will probably be treated like the company had made a buyback of its own shares.

So, basically he exchanged 107,637 shares for 175,000 shares, according to the company's 1995 Employee Stock Option Plan. He can't sell them right away, there are restrictions:

«5. The Holder has agreed with the Issuer that the shares of common stock obtained through the exercise of the option reported herein shall be subject to the following restrictions on resale: none of such shares may be sold prior to June 11, 2009 and not more than 50% (i.e., 87,500) of such shares may be sold prior to June 11, 2010.»

Technically JAKK closed at a new 52 week high, and it will face some very important resistances ahead, mainly the $28.5 long term descending trendline and the $29.33 all time high, printed in October 26th, 1999.

I believe that JAKK's fundamentals are much more attractive now than what they were in the past and certainly the stock should move higher and breakout to a new all time high, reaching $30 for the first time in history.

[David Randolph]

Nothing new happened for JAKK, not from a technical or fundamental standpoint. I'll keep holding.

[David Randolph]

Finally something to smile about, JAKK closed at a new high today. And this was against all odds, at least according to some here.

Definitely the market is saying JAKK's bears are wrong, at least in my view. Just another small step and JAKK will be rewarded with a new all time high, and it sure deserves it!

There was some news out, but it isn't all that relevant, because JAKK is a very diversified company:

• JAKKS Pacific(R) Signs Master Toy License With Big Tent Entertainment for the Wiggles Brand
PR Newswire (Mon 9:00am)

I'll keep holding JAKK with strong hands.

[David Randolph]

JAKK touched its long term resistance level on volume above average, and it is just 3% shy of a new all time high. Given the very attractive fundamentals of the business, I have no doubts that the stock will breakout to a new all time high sooner ratter than later.

[David Randolph]

JAKK looked at $29, but then sold off in tandem with the general market. I think it is just a matter of time before we see JAKK above $30, because the stock is trading at just 11.7 times 2007 estimated earnings of $2.39 per share and I believe the company will beat those estimates.

[yukiii]

NEW YORK, June 20  - Analyst Jeffery Blaeser of Morgan Joseph maintains his "buy" rating on JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK.NAS). The target price is set to $29.

In a research note published yesterday, the analyst mentions that the company has announced a North American Master Toy licensing agreement for the production of a line of toys, based on the themes and the characters of The Wiggles. This new line is set to be unveiled in the fall of 2008, the analyst says. The addition of new lines by JAKKS Pacific is expected to diversify the company's product line further and drive sales in 2008, Morgan Joseph adds.

Might be a good time to take profits in JAKK looks over bought.

[Houlahan]

NEW YORK, June 20  - Analyst Jeffery Blaeser of Morgan Joseph maintains his "buy" rating on JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK.NAS). The target price is set to $29.

In a research note published yesterday, the analyst mentions that the company has announced a North American Master Toy licensing agreement for the production of a line of toys, based on the themes and the characters of The Wiggles. This new line is set to be unveiled in the fall of 2008, the analyst says. The addition of new lines by JAKKS Pacific is expected to diversify the company's product line further and drive sales in 2008, Morgan Joseph adds.

Might be a good time to take profits in JAKK looks over bought.

Hey Yukiii
what do you base your decision on?? You say it is time to take profits.
Your not looking at just one perspective are you? Like RSI?
I'm sure you know using RSI that large surges and drops in the price of a stock will affect the RSI by creating false buy or sell signals. The RSI is best in complement to other stock monitoring tools.

Or, are you taking the Analyst Jeffery Blaeser of Morgan Joseph's target price of $29 and looking at the close for JAkk today of $28.43 and saying geeee only 57 cents until it reaches the target price! Time to take profits.

This is shallow thinking for you. You need to back up a strong statement like "maybe a good time to take profits" with some facts. This will help me to understand how you derived to that conclusion. Thanks for your help.

[basanlas]

Hmmmmm
I been in and out of JAKK for the past 7 years.
Its overvalued at $25 not much growth here.
Will go up some end of year Passssss

There has been growth. But with a trailing P/E of 11 you don't need growth. Why do you say it is overvalued?

Thanks

It always trends down in May till October then its a buy, probably going to $22 then back up again to$27.

$2.30 last year $2.39 this year and that the whole story. Timing is wrong.........

Yukii,

I don't understand your reasoning on your statements! I think we all want to hear different opinions or angles that are not looked at but you seem to make suggestions without any thought process as to why.

We all appreciate a different view but please bring your reasonings with you.
I'm glad I did not take your first recomendation to sell because you thought the timing was all wrong.

Brad

[Houlahan]

thank you Brad that was nicely said.
I did not mean to sound so sharp, sorry Yukiii

[yukiii]

thank you Brad that was nicely said.
I did not mean to sound so sharp, sorry Yukiii

I thought you knew already. I didn't like the stock when David picked it at $26.36, it then went to $23.85. I think its at full value at $28 right now as I stated before in the thread. Just my opinion I could be wrong. Stochastic turning Neg..  A black candle tomorrow would confirm it. But I guess if you are holding for 3 years none of this matters. I only think short term. I think 8% profit or 13% if you bought it on the dip is pretty good for JAKK short term. I don't think you will get much more with there numbers.

[yukiii]

NEW YORK, June 20  - Analyst Jeffery Blaeser of Morgan Joseph maintains his "buy" rating on JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK.NAS). The target price is set to $29.

In a research note published yesterday, the analyst mentions that the company has announced a North American Master Toy licensing agreement for the production of a line of toys, based on the themes and the characters of The Wiggles. This new line is set to be unveiled in the fall of 2008, the analyst says. The addition of new lines by JAKKS Pacific is expected to diversify the company's product line further and drive sales in 2008, Morgan Joseph adds.

Might be a good time to take profits in JAKK looks over bought.

Hey Yukiii
what do you base your decision on?? You say it is time to take profits.
Your not looking at just one perspective are you? Like RSI?
I'm sure you know using RSI that large surges and drops in the price of a stock will affect the RSI by creating false buy or sell signals. The RSI is best in complement to other stock monitoring tools.

Or, are you taking the Analyst Jeffery Blaeser of Morgan Joseph's target price of $29 and looking at the close for JAkk today of $28.43 and saying geeee only 57 cents until it reaches the target price! Time to take profits.

This is shallow thinking for you. You need to back up a strong statement like "maybe a good time to take profits" with some facts. This will help me to understand how you derived to that conclusion. Thanks for your help.

How about a company growing 2.4 to 5% and maybe 10% next year and a historic pe of 11. That makes it fully valued again.

[yukiii]

Hmmmmm
I been in and out of JAKK for the past 7 years.
Its overvalued at $25 not much growth here.
Will go up some end of year Passssss

There has been growth. But with a trailing P/E of 11 you don't need growth. Why do you say it is overvalued?

Thanks

It always trends down in May till October then its a buy, probably going to $22 then back up again to$27.

$2.30 last year $2.39 this year and that the whole story. Timing is wrong.........

Yukii,

I don't understand your reasoning on your statements! I think we all want to hear different opinions or angles that are not looked at but you seem to make suggestions without any thought process as to why.

We all appreciate a different view but please bring your reasonings with you.
I'm glad I did not take your first recomendation to sell because you thought the timing was all wrong.

Brad

Brad I said don't buy and it went down, consider yourself lucky it went back up but I would not expect this to hit $62.

[David Randolph]

I thought you knew already. I didn't like the stock when David picked it at $26.36, it then went to $23.85. I think its at full value at $28 right now as I stated before in the thread. Just my opinion I could be wrong. Stochastic turning Neg..  A black candle tomorrow would confirm it. But I guess if you are holding for 3 years none of this matters. I only think short term. I think 8% profit or 13% if you bought it on the dip is pretty good for JAKK short term. I don't think you will get much more with there numbers.

"Stochastic turning negative ... a black candle would confirm it ... I only think short term". And you claim to have 40 years of experience. I think you have 40 years of doing the same thing, which is different.

Please don't take this personally. I can't imagine how hard it would be for me to spend 40 years thinking and making something and then find out that I was wrong. I've done things for 5 years or more to then see that it was a complete waste of time. It was devastating, letting go of all my ideas and concepts, admitting I was dead wrong for so long. But it was also liberating.

But I guess 40 years is just too much time. The issue becomes a part of ourselves, of our ego and identity. Without that mind frame, we're nothing. For example, my wife's grandparent has been a communist all his life. He's 80 years old now. I know he knows now that he was wrong, but you'll never hear him saying that. He will defend communism until he dies, and nothing or no one will ever change his ideas. He's "the communist".

I've read a good book on this subject, which is Practicing the Power of Now, from Eckhart Tolle. I've learned not to have an ego.

This conversation has nothing to do with JAKK, of course. I'm going to tell Ramsburg to speed up the process of you having your own portfolio here at 3 Stocks so that you have something to be entertained and let go of my picks. Anyway, I value your inputs and sometimes they help me.

Not in JAKK's case. The stock is just 3.16% shy of a new all time high, and fundamentals fully deserve a much higher share price. I'll keep holding JAKK.

[yukiii]

I thought you knew already. I didn't like the stock when David picked it at $26.36, it then went to $23.85. I think its at full value at $28 right now as I stated before in the thread. Just my opinion I could be wrong. Stochastic turning Neg..  A black candle tomorrow would confirm it. But I guess if you are holding for 3 years none of this matters. I only think short term. I think 8% profit or 13% if you bought it on the dip is pretty good for JAKK short term. I don't think you will get much more with there numbers.

"Stochastic turning negative ... a black candle would confirm it ... I only think short term". And you claim to have 40 years of experience. I think you have 40 years of doing the same thing, which is different.

Please don't take this personally. I can't imagine how hard it would be for me to spend 40 years thinking and making something and then find out that I was wrong. I've done things for 5 years or more to then see that it was a complete waste of time. It was devastating, letting go of all my ideas and concepts, admitting I was dead wrong for so long. But it was also liberating.

But I guess 40 years is just too much time. The issue becomes a part of ourselves, of our ego and identity. Without that mind frame, we're nothing. For example, my wife's grandparent has been a communist all his life. He's 80 years old now. I know he knows now that he was wrong, but you'll never hear him saying that. He will defend communism until he dies, and nothing or no one will ever change his ideas. He's "the communist".

I've read a good book on this subject, which is Practicing the Power of Now, from Eckhart Tolle. I've learned not to have an ego.

This conversation has nothing to do with JAKK, of course. I'm going to tell Ramsburg to speed up the process of you having your own portfolio here at 3 Stocks so that you have something to be entertained and let go of my picks. Anyway, I value your inputs and sometimes they help me.

Not in JAKK's case. The stock is just 3.16% shy of a new all time high, and fundamentals fully deserve a much higher share price. I'll keep holding JAKK.

Not sure what you are trying to say, I simple thought its a good time to sell. The chart says it all
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JAKK&p=DAILY&b=5&g=0&id=p44611275906

[David Randolph]

Not sure what you are trying to say, I simple thought its a good time to sell. The chart says it all
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JAKK&p=DAILY&b=5&g=0&id=p44611275906

It's funny how when I try to make a point the stock contradicts me the next day. Probably I shouldn't try making points