AMZN (puts)

[bigbull]

I have been watching AMZN behavior lately and I have seen that stock is having a bit of  trouible in breaking its current consolidation pattern.


I think that the stock is due for a pullback for 5 main reasons:
1) Has not been able to break its consolidatiopn pattern.
2) Volume has been big of late but it is likely to drop after option expiration which was this past Friday
3) If one is looking at its technicals one would see that most TA are signaling an overbought stock. Inidicators such AS MACD, RSI, TRIX, Slow Stochastic among others are signlaing a pull back soon.
4) Although the company did report goof earnings much of the growth reported was due to the opening of new mp3 store which is a market that is already saturated and is not likey to give the same reults next quarter as Ebay and other online retailers begin to provide the same type of service at a better rate.
5) Their main source of revenue is book selling. If compared to other online sites one could see that there isnt really any cut costs involved and the market is not one where further growth can be sustained.
6) Insiders have been selling stock of late
7) Growth was big this quarter but it looks like people are getting to excited over next quarterr and as a result expectation begin to rise making it tougher for them just to meet. 
Much of the growth was not organic(self-sustained growth) but from other sources that are not going to be there for next quarter and the rest of the year.
9) Valuation wise its expensive: Trading at a 107 multiple witha growth rate of 24%(8% which is organic growth) the stock is expnisve and overvalued.
10) with a market pullback lily to come soon, the stock is sure to trade near its fair value of $57 or so.

The best way to trade it is to go IM as to be protected but dont go out to much in term of time. Playing the volatility is key in this situation.

[Tirebldr]

I've been watching Amazon AMZN slowly work its way up the lower trendline and thought I would post a chart and see what was thought about it

[lucror]

I got burned on some June puts earlier this year. I'm not going to think about touching it until after quarter 4 earnings. It's pps is absurdly high, but that reasoning got me into trouble before.