AUY is a growing Gold company. It hopes to produce 400,000 oz of gold in 2006 at a cost of $250 an oz. In 2007 it hopes to produce 500,000 oz of gold at a cost of $100 an oz. That is unheard of - am I reading the Yahoo news reports correctly?
Can someone give me some input on AUY. Is it a good stock to buy for the next few weeks?
Just bought AUY at 8.82 today.... I cant believe this hasnt moved much PR just released about earnings on Monday. Good earnings should be coming out :), also near a 52week high at 9.44 I expect we will crash thru this with earnings.
Gold appears to be breaking out.......... But if it is, this one moves nicely with it, in at $8.50
Gold has broken out and should last through the EOY...............
Holygrale,
Just saw this folder, and your charts. At first, I thought that your November 2 chart was yesterday's close. Drat! That candle was a breakout of what looks to be a DOUBLE Bullish Inverse H&S pattern.
Does stockcharts allow you to draw trendlines on the charts? If it does, see if you can draw the two necklines, which will help you to dervive your upsdie targets IN PLAY.
You have a ver-ry nice entry, at 8.50. ;)
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 10, 2006, 05:09:37 AM
Holygrale,
Just saw this folder, and your charts. At first, I thought that your November 2 chart was yesterday's close. Drat! That candle was a breakout of what looks to be a DOUBLE Bullish Inverse H&S pattern.
Holygrale,
You'll see in the next post why I was drooling when I saw your November 2 chart.
First, picture if one of us posted the following before the market open on October 28:
"Last night, Cramer recommended a switch out of GG into AUY. The chart has had a Bullish Inverse H&S Breakout, has set up the neckline of a SECOND Bullish Inverse H&S breakout, and at yesterday's close, its sitting at a re-test of the first neckline breakout."
Drool...Drool...Drool... :D >:(
Next post is the result.
This is a great example of how a marriage between news/fundamentals/analysts calls and technical analysis can make us a lot of money.
Cramer said "Buy." Did the chart agree? It sure did! Perfect timing, on the re-test of the first neckline breakout, which also was the low of the SECOND Right Shoulder (red arrow)
Low-risk stop below 8.88, the low of the first Right Shoulder, nice reward on the upside!
I realize that you already were in it at 8.50, Holygrale, which is great!
Just taliking "in general," about how helpful it can be to post these setups. Thanks again for your posts on AUY. Sorry that I didn't get here in time.
"So many charts...so litle time," huh? ;)
Melf, hope you bought on the dip. Gold about to take off to $700 by years end.......JMHO
Quote from: Holygrale on November 22, 2006, 09:52:49 AM
Melf, hope you bought on the dip.
Holygrale,
Thanks for reminding me. Applause.
I just bought AUY at 11.17 on the dip to fill this morning's gap. :D Stop: a few pennies below 10.39, the low of the Bull Flag. Risk: a loss of 7%
The 34/55 RSIs gave a buy signal yesterday, at 10.83. Wasn't watching it. :(
This morning's open was a gap above a Bull Flag. The gap now has been filled to the penny, so we'd like to see AUY finish higher today on a Bullish Hammer, with a long tail off the Bull Flag breakout.
I'll show you the daily chart next.
Quote
Gold about to take off to $700 by years end.......JMHO
Any particular reason? Seems I heard that wedding season is coming up (early winter?), contributing to demand.
Daily chart
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 22, 2006, 11:35:10 AM
This morning's open was a gap above a Bull Flag. The gap now has been filled to the penny, so we'd like to see AUY finish higher today on a Bullish Hammer, with a long tail off the Bull Flag breakout.
We didn't get a pop higher off the gap fill on Wednesday, but it held the Bull Flag breakout (11.19) at the close (11.22), and AUY is called higher this morning, right at Wednesday's 11.56 high.
Current BID 11.56...ASK 11.58.
Targets:
11.90 is IN PLAY from the Bull Flag breakout (Top of the pattern) EDIT: 11.90, not 11.84
12.06 still is IN PLAY from the November 1 Inverse H&S Breakout
12.70 is IN PLAY from the measured move off the Bull Flag breakout.
BTW, in addition to Raymond James raising this week, on November 14, RBC raised their target from $13 to $15.
Melf, excellent posts.
With the dollar showing weakness and their are too many Gold bugs calling for breakout with $700 target by years end, this looks like a major buying opportunity..........
For those not in gold, dont miss the fireworks. AUY is a producer and moves quite well with the Price Of Gold...........
The upgrades from Raymand James is added fuel to the fire.............
Good pick guys!... Gold stocks are on fire! ;)
AUY Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders. ;D
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome. ;)
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 24, 2006, 08:32:49 AM
Targets:
11.90 is IN PLAY from the Bull Flag breakout (Top of the pattern) EDIT: 11.90, not 11.84
12.06 still is IN PLAY from the November 1 Inverse H&S Breakout
12.70 is IN PLAY from the measured move off the Bull Flag breakout.
Sold 10% of my AUY at
11.90 when the target MADE. Gain: 6.5%
I thought that the
12.06 target would get MADE as well, since it's been IN PLAY since the Inverse H&S breakout on November 1. I planned to sell some more at that second target, but yesterday's early morning high only was
12.03 , and that was it for the day.
I'm not particularly fond of the two Doji Star Hangmen on the chart, but at least all of the gaps from the last three sessions are filled.
Holding 90% long.
This one is holding its own............
Quote from: Holygrale on November 29, 2006, 12:21:37 AM
This one is holding its own............
Holygrale,
Yes, it came on strong into the close yesterday afternoon, didn't it?
The DOUBLE Inverse H&S that formed this autumn, and now the Bull Flag, look real nice, but something that you might find interesting: we've got TWO more bullish patterns on the chart!
:o :D
There is a THIRD Bullish Inverse H&S (pattern in green) that broke out on August 1, 2006, putting a target of 13.01 IN PLAY. That didn't go anywhere, but it's "nested" below a BIG "W" Bottom, below 11.38 (solid black line), which has broken out.
Math for the Inverse H&S (pattern in green):
10.40 - Neckline
7.79 - Low of the Head
10.40 - 7.79 = 2.61 Points + 10.40 = Target: 13.01
After the Inverse H&S breakout, AUY went all the way back down, and formed a "W-Bottom" (I drew the pattern above the month of August), for a much larger base from which to breakout. Nice.
The "Buy Pivot" of the middle of the "W" is 11.38, the high of August 9. That broke out solidly (above the black line) on November 9, putting a target of
14.94 IN PLAY. Interestingly, a few days later, RBC raised their target from 13.00 to
15.00, right at the target.
Math:
11.38 - Middle, or "pivot" of the "W"
7.82 - Low (I always take the more conservative of the 7.79 and 7.82 lows)
11.38 - 7.82 = 3.56 Points + 11.38 = Target: 14.94
So, we've got:
Target #1 - 11.32 - October 24 "Nested" H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 6
Target #2 - 11.90 - November 22 Bull Flag Breakout (Top of Flag) - MADE Nov 27
Target #3 - 12.06 - November 1 Larger H&S Breakout
Target #4 - 12.70 - November 22 Bull Flag "Measured Move"
Target #5 - 13.01 - July 31 H&S Breakout "Lost Target"...back IN PLAY
Target #6 - 14.94 - November 8 "W"-Bottom Breakout
Technically, AUY is "packing some punch" with these bullish patterns, and has only to get through 3 days of resistance from May (very beginning of this chart) to be at a new high, which would be a print of 12.43.
Never any guarantees, of course, but this looks very strong. Thanks again for your alert on it.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 28, 2006, 04:24:33 AM
Sold 10% of my AUY at 11.90 when the target MADE. Gain: 6.5%
Sold another 10% of my AUY when the 12.06 target MADE. Gain: 8%
Thank you, Holygrale! :)
Holding 80% of the position long.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 29, 2006, 02:20:49 AM
So, we've got:
Target #1 - 11.32 - October 24 "Nested" H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 6
Target #2 - 11.90 - November 22 Bull Flag Breakout (Top of Flag) - MADE Nov 27
Target #3 - 12.06 - November 1 Larger H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 29
Target #4 - 12.70 - November 22 Bull Flag "Measured Move"
Target #5 - 13.01 - July 31 H&S Breakout "Lost Target"...back IN PLAY
Target #6 - 14.94 - November 8 "W"-Bottom Breakout
Next target IN PLAY is 12.70, the measured move off the November 22 Bull Flag breakout.
AUY currently is BID 12.09...ASK 12.10
Melf, nicely done on your charts and comments............
I will hold core position til end of the year, I think Gold is where I will be..........so many sweet looking charts out there(ABP,OMNI, EGY) so little time ad money....... ;D
I do think $13 will hit quicker than we think..................
Quote from: Holygrale on November 30, 2006, 01:00:25 AM
Melf, nicely done on your charts and comments............
I will hold core position til end of the year, I think Gold is where I will be..........so many sweet looking charts out there(ABP,OMNI, EGY) so little time ad money....... ;D
Holygrale,
Thanks. This chart sure backs up your opinion, with all of these Bullish patterns.
Quote
I do think $13 will hit quicker than we think..................
That would be nice, since Targets #4 and #5 would get MADE in the process. :D
A quick move to $13 certainly is warranted, given the fact that the chart work is done, and that we've only got a little bit of resistance between here and the 12.43 high last May.
We've got the TWO Bullish Inverse H&S patterns (green and blue) with the intervening W-Bottom pivot at 11.38. We broke out above all of that, pulled back for a Bull Flag, and now we've broken out again.
Very pretty chart. We'll see...
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 29, 2006, 10:56:01 AM
Sold 10% of my AUY at 11.90 when the target MADE. Gain: 6.5%
Sold another 10% of my AUY when the 12.06 target MADE. Gain: 8%
Holding 80% of the position long.
Sold another 10% of my AUY at
12.70 The Bull Flag target MADE. Gain: 13.7%
Thanks again, Holygrale!
Holding 70% of the positon long.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 29, 2006, 02:20:49 AM
So, we've got:
Target #1 - 11.32 - October 24 "Nested" H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 6
Target #2 - 11.90 - November 22 Bull Flag Breakout (Top of Flag) - MADE Nov 27
Target #3 - 12.06 - November 1 Larger H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 29
Target #4 - 12.70 - November 22 Bull Flag "Measured Move" - MADE NOV 30
Target #5 - 13.01 - July 31 H&S Breakout "Lost Target"...back IN PLAY
Target #6 - 14.94 - November 8 "W"-Bottom Breakout
Next target IN PLAY is 13.01, the "Lost Target" from the July H&S breakout.
Quote from: Terliso on November 25, 2006, 01:20:00 AM
Good pick guys!... Gold stocks are on fire! ;)
ON FIRE!!!!!! ;)
Good Trade Melf, applause ;)
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 30, 2006, 12:11:56 PM
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 29, 2006, 10:56:01 AM
Sold 10% of my AUY at 11.90 when the target MADE. Gain: 6.5%
Sold another 10% of my AUY when the 12.06 target MADE. Gain: 8%
Sold another 10% of my AUY at 12.70 The Bull Flag target MADE. Gain: 13.7%
Sold another 10% of AUY at 13.01 when Target #5 MADE. Gain: 16.5%
Holding 60% long.
Quote from: Holygrale on November 30, 2006, 01:00:25 AM
I do think $13 will hit quicker than we think..................
Thanks again, Holygrale, Good call on the $13. Applause.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 29, 2006, 02:20:49 AM
So, we've got:
Target #1 - 11.32 - October 24 "Nested" H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 6
Target #2 - 11.90 - November 22 Bull Flag Breakout (Top of Flag) - MADE Nov 27
Target #3 - 12.06 - November 1 Larger H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 29
Target #4 - 12.70 - November 22 Bull Flag "Measured Move" - MADE Nov 30[
Target #5 - 13.01 - July 31 H&S Breakout "Lost Target" MADE Dec 1
Target #6 - 14.94 - November 8 "W"-Bottom Breakout
Next target is 14.94.
Quote from: Terliso on November 30, 2006, 05:00:26 PM
[ON FIRE!!!!!! ;)
Good Trade Melf, applause ;)
Thanks, Alister. I owe this one to Holygrale, who presented it, and who gave me a heads up right before I bought it. Pretty chart.
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 01, 2006, 11:14:00 AM
Sold 10% of my AUY at 11.90 when the target MADE. Gain: 6.5%
Sold another 10% of my AUY when the 12.06 target MADE. Gain: 8%
Sold another 10% of my AUY at 12.70 The Bull Flag target MADE. Gain: 13.7%
Sold another 10% of AUY at 13.01 when Target #5 MADE. Gain: 16.5%
Sold another 20% of my AUY at 13.51. Gain: 20.9%
Holding 40% long.
Melf I've been away on business...................
Can you say Yahhhhoooooooooooooooooo!
Still long from $8.50.........Holding through the New Year!
Melf, had 2k shares of GROW at $18.........I pulled the trigger way to early on that one! ouch
Quote from: Holygrale on December 04, 2006, 10:59:25 PM
Melf I've been away on business...................
Can you say Yahhhhoooooooooooooooooo!
Holygrale,
Yes, and I can say thank youuuuuuuuuuuuuu for finding this beauty.
AUY is up ten days in a row, so we're due for a pullback at any time, but the rally certainly is justified coming out of all of those Bullish patterns, and nested Bullish patterns (the Double Inverse H&S in blue...everything nested in a W-Bottom, below 11.38).
Nested Bullish patterns can be very nice on the upside when they break out, as this one is.
Quote
Still long from $8.50.........Holding through the New Year!
Melf, had 2k shares of GROW at $18.........I pulled the trigger way to early on that one! ouch
That's okay, you're doing great on AUY! ;)
Huge Buying opportunity here under $13............
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 05, 2006, 02:49:01 AM
AUY is up ten days in a row, so we're due for a pullback at any time, but the rally certainly is justified coming out of all of those Bullish patterns, and nested Bullish patterns (the Double Inverse H&S in blue...everything nested in a W-Bottom, below 11.38).
Nested Bullish patterns can be very nice on the upside when they break out, as this one is.
Holygrale,
The pullback began that morning, with the 13.75 open, a print high of 13.81, then a close on a Dark Cloud Cover.
From its October 4 low of 7.82, AUY rallied 76.6% in just two months to the 13.81 print high, so a correction here is healthy. I'd like to see a nice Bull Flag, or a Symmetrical Triangle form. Something like that.
Quote from: Holygrale on December 08, 2006, 01:24:58 PM
Huge Buying opportunity here under $13............
I'm looking for gap fill of 12.07-12.15. If we get it, I'll buy back the 20% that I sold at 13.51.
A .382 retracement of the rally off the October 4 low would be 11.522. If we get that, I'll back back the 10% that I sold at 13.01, and the 10% that I sold at 12.70.
11.522 is just above the BIG breakout of the W-Bottom, at 11.38. It's possible that we'll get a re-test, and a .382% retracement of a nice 76.6% rally like we had is very reasonable.
By the way, on Cramer's October 27 "Switch out of GG and buy AUY" call...
GG was at 25.01. It rallied to 31.47 so far, for a 25.8% gain.
AUY was at 9.40. It rallied to 13.81 so far, for a 46.9% gain. Almost double the rally in GG.
Give the devil his due, huh? Nice call. >:D :D
What I liked about his call was the fact that GG was heading into quite a bit of nearby resistance from the June-August broken Ascending Triangle, and the 50/200DMAs were inverted.
AUY on the other hand, after the W-Bottom breakout, had only 3 candles worth of resistance to get through, from May, 2006.
Stocks tend to have a much easier time rallying when they haven't got to battle a lot of resistance.
GG rallied 54.6% off its October low vs. the 76.6% rally in AUY. Still a VERY nice rally for GG!
Technically, the difference between the two was that GG had to rally into that June-August broken Ascending Triangle (pattern in red), and the recent rally ended right at the top of that resistance. And, there's still further resistance above that, from May-June.
AUY's recent rally ended at a new high. NO resistance.
In general, it's better to buy the stronger of two stocks.
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 11, 2006, 04:55:33 AM
From its October 4 low of 7.82, AUY rallied 76.6% in just two months to the 13.81 print high, so a correction here is healthy. I'd like to see a nice Bull Flag, or a Symmetrical Triangle form. Something like that.
AUY has been correcting for the past two weeks.
Quote
I'm looking for gap fill of 12.07-12.15. If we get it, I'll buy back the 20% that I sold at 13.51.
Yesterday's low was
12.16,
jus-st above that gap. The November 9 high of the Bull Flag (pattern in green) was 11.90. I'll buy back the 20% that sold at 13.51 for 12.00, if I can get it.
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 19, 2006, 03:39:09 AM
I'll buy back the 20% that sold at 13.51 for 12.00, if I can get it.
I didn't get a chance to buy that back at 12.00.
AUY rallied back over 13.00, without even filling any of the 12.07-12.15 gap.
It's back down, to 12.28, so I might have a chance to buy it at 12.00, but I'm going to pass for two reasons:
1. The short-term 13/21RSIs met at Bearish Synchronicity on the rally back to 13.00, and issued a short-term sell signal on yesterday's print of 12.50.
2. The up trendline (red) off the October 4 low of 7.82 was broken yesterday on a closing basis. That trendline had four hits to it (therefore, 2 validations), so that's another caution.
I have a nice gain of 14.4% in the 60% of my long position that I've sold, so I'm going to leave that alone, and just hold my remaining 40% long position (from 11.17).
Gold is picking up steam, I think the New Year will bring new buying.......we'll see.
In the meantime, AUY is setting itself up, this mornings gap has been filled.........
Melf, what are your thoughts on that 12.07 gap, you think she'll get filled?
Quote from: Holygrale on December 26, 2006, 01:32:46 PM
Melf, what are your thoughts on that 12.07 gap, you think she'll get filled?
Holygrale,
That gap has been acting as support, so it might not get filled.
The recent lows are
12.16 and
12.18, so we've got a possible W-Bottom right at the top of the gap, which is
12.15.The pivot of the "W" is the 13.09, so if that gets taken out to the upside, 14.00 will be IN PLAY.
Math:
13.09 - high of the "W"
12.18 - low (the more conservative of the 12.16...12.18 lows)
13.09 - 12.18 = 0.91 points + 13.09 = Target: 14.00
Holygrale,
I like the fact that Tuesday's low (Red #5) re-established support at the broken trendline coming off the October 4 low, which also filled the 12.54 gap, and that AUY moved higher yesterday.
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 26, 2006, 02:06:40 PM
The pivot of the "W" is the 13.09, so if that gets taken out to the upside, 14.00 will be IN PLAY.
Now we need to knock out
13.09.
Big pullback today AUY is still trading in the low 12s. I picked up a good amount of shares today at 12.23, couldnt resist the bargain prices.
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 22, 2006, 07:22:50 AM
It's back down, to 12.28, so I might have a chance to buy it at 12.00, but I'm going to pass for two reasons:
1. The short-term 13/21RSIs met at Bearish Synchronicity on the rally back to 13.00, and issued a short-term sell signal on yesterday's print of 12.50.
2. The up trendline (red) off the October 4 low of 7.82 was broken yesterday on a closing basis. That trendline had four hits to it (therefore, 2 validations), so that's another caution.
I have a nice gain of 14.4% in the 60% of my long position that I've sold, so I'm going to leave that alone, and just hold my remaining 40% long position (from 11.17).
I thought that we might fill the 12.07-12.15 gap on the short-term technical weakness, but I really didn't expect that we would come
all-ll the way back and re-test the W-Bottom breakout (the May high of
11.38 ).
I'm glad that I left the trade alone, and didn't buy back the 60% that I sold. :P
We've printed
11.32 this morning, six cents below the May W-Bottom pivot of
11.38. If we're set to close below
11.38, or if we take out
11.32 at any time, I'll take a small gain on my remaining 40% long position.
AUY currently is BID
11.38...ASK
11.39, re-testing the
11.38 W-Bottom breakout again.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 05, 2007, 11:33:40 AM
We've printed 11.32 this morning, six cents below the May W-Bottom pivot of 11.38. If we're set to close below 11.38, or if we take out 11.32 at any time, I'll take a small gain on my remaining 40% long position.
We got a bounce off the top of the W-Bottom (horizontal black line) and closed near the high of the day. Not too bad, given the $20 smackdown in the POG.
"Former resistance 'should' act as support," and it did. So far, so good.
I'll keep my stop below 11.32 of the remaining 40% of my long position (from 11.17).
Melf...........applaud, nice job on the calls you've made on this one.
I sold my entire position at $13.05 on Wednesday only to see it close at $12.33.............I didn't see that coming. My decision was based on Clive Maund on his site claiming a head and shoulder on the POG with a retracement back to support to about $570.00...................and of course your excellent guidance possibly "$12.07 gap" being filled, I figured I would jump ship and reload later.........I didn't expect this big of a retracement, but I am looking to get back in..........Full throttle of course. ;D
This one is a winner and will move well with POG when shes ready.........to the upside of course!
Melf, Keep up the good work, when I sold AUY I picked a few shares of ONT at 1.22 while I wait for POG to settle down...........worth a look, CES next week should give them some more exposure.
Quote from: Holygrale on January 07, 2007, 12:41:36 AM
I sold my entire position at $13.05 on Wednesday
Holygrale,
Good job! That's a very nice gain from your entry in the 8.00s.
I'm comfortable holding my remaining 40% position from 11.17, but on the fence about the near-term direction. I studied GG at the weekend and can see a bullish outcome just as easily as a bearish one, even though GG has completed a short-term H&S Top.
I wouldn't have played AUY and had the gain that I do had it not been for your posts, so thanks again, and applause.
Quote
Melf, Keep up the good work, when I sold AUY I picked a few shares of ONT at 1.22 while I wait for POG to settle down...........worth a look, CES next week should give them some more exposure.
ONT has gone a bit parabolic since the December Rising Channel breakout, and it's up better than 150% off the July low.
The Rising Channel target of 1.35 MADE last Thursday. I don't know anything about the fundamentals on it, and parabolic rallies can take on a life or their own, but it also could be "sell Las Vegas." Personally, I always take some off the table when targets get MADE.
Good luck with it, and thanks again for your help on AUY.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 08, 2007, 07:31:24 AM
I'm comfortable holding my remaining 40% position from 11.17, but on the fence about the near-term direction.
I sold my remaining 40% of AUY at 12.16 late this afternoon, at 12.16-12.18 resitance. Gain: 8.9%
Gain on the trade: 12.2%
Quote
I studied GG at the weekend and can see a bullish outcome just as easily as a bearish one, even though GG has completed a short-term H&S Top.
GG looks to have put in a H&S Top, and it didn't participate today: Down 1.66%, with AUY up 5.3%.
Given that AUY rallied today right to the bottom of six weeks worth of resistance, and that my 34/55RSIs probably are going to be a Bearish Synchronicity on the rally, I decided to sell into strength, and close out the rest of the trade.
Thanks again, Holygrale. ;)
I didnt catch the bottom on this one :P, I am about break even now. I think AUY has a lot of potential to run their is a lot of things cooking in the background that can cause gold to run up on fear.
Melf, nice job on selling on strength, I will wait for POG to settle down a bit. AUY has been getting some good Publicity/short covering(???) lately hence the run up today butttttttt will be a solid Producer in 07'...............
Looking to get back in, appreciate all your guidance (TA)........... ;D
This one has me puzzled............... ???
It showing great strength, and I have decided to buy back in............LOL ;D
In at 11.92 and will put a stop loss at 11.70..............1) I just think they will have great numbers and 2) if POG does take off I dont want to miss the ride and 3) they begin trading NYSE on Friday(not that it matters) but you never know NEW institutions looking to get in etc...............
You gotta love all the publicity its getting thats its the GOLD play. We'll see.
Strong day for AUY up over 4% and still climbing... AUY switched over to the NYSE today and gold is up over a percent. New 52wk highs coming? If the POG climbs and runs through 620 with strength AUY will be trading at new 52wk highs.
auy is a talked about stock up north here...it has a major discovery and the analysts that hold it in canada have a $50 can. target.....other junior plays that will have increasing production are eldorado..eld....iamgold..img..and kinross...k.......there are many juniors that are in production but there runs will lag....kinross in particular should follow the pog........I hold them all except auy...and thats only because I missed that big run and have a hard time paying that much..but it is a well liked stock and will follow gold
sorry...auy in the states is yahmana gold...diff stock here.....okay...yahama...again a well liked stock expected to grow by aquisition...widely held here in canada....targets are 15-18 can..currently...again will go up with gold ...and down with gold.......stock did get away abit and if pog goes to $580 which is somewhat expected it will correct along with it....the others I mentioned...the symbols are canadian so you will have to look up if ther trade on a us exc....I know kinross is kgc...anyhow sorry about the mis recognition of thesymbol... I forget I'm on a us bb....
Nice run-up today.........Glad its on the NYSE now, can't stand the AMEX..........
POG was up big today, hope we get some nice follow thru next week.... ;D
Quote from: Holygrale on January 09, 2007, 09:55:55 PM
Melf, nice job on selling on strength, I will wait for POG to settle down a bit. AUY has been getting some good Publicity/short covering(???) lately hence the run up today butttttttt will be a solid Producer in 07'...............
Looking to get back in, appreciate all your guidance (TA)........... ;D
Holygrale,
Thanks, and you're welcome. ;)
I knew that AUY was going to have to "rally ugly," based on the technicals, so I was happy to have the opportunity to sell the rally to the bottom of six-week resistance, even though it's still bullish on the chart, especially with that successful re-test the W-bottom, at 11.38 (the January 5 low was 11.32).
Here's what I mean by "rally ugly:"
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 09, 2007, 04:35:39 PM
I sold my remaining 40% of AUY at 12.16 late this afternoon, at 12.16-12.18 resitance. Gain: 8.9%
Gain on the trade: 12.2%
Given that AUY rallied today right to the bottom of six weeks worth of resistance, and that my 34/55RSIs probably are going to be a Bearish Synchronicity on the rally, I decided to sell into strength, and close out the rest of the trade.
Thanks again, Holygrale. ;)
Here's the 34/55RSI chart. This particular indicator "got well" on October 27 (the first green arrow) when the 34/55RSIs came into Bullish Synchronicity, then bounced higher. That day, AUY re-tested the first Bullish Inverse H&S breakout, then went on to break out of another Bullish Inverse H&S on November 3!
You will remember how much I liked your chart in November! ;D
Thoughout the rally in late 2006, the 34/55RSIs behaved very well. Each time that the 34RSI came back and meet its "shadow," the 55RSI (which I call synchronicity) the 34 RSI banged higher, indicating, "Okay, I've had a rest, and now I'm ready to do some more work on the upside."
In the first session of 2007, however, when AUY made a intraday high of 13.35, then closed at 12.35, we had a possible problem: the 34/55RSIs were at Bullish Synchronicity,
but the neckline of the H&S Top had broken.Technically, at least from this indicator, we can see why, when AUY
didn't find support at the 12.07-12.15, gap we were at 11.32 very rapidly (the next session).
At Friday's close, the 34/55RSIs now are at BEARISH Synchronicity, below the neckline of the H&S Top, and below the 34/55EMAs, which have rolled over to the downside.
MACD also put in a H&S Top at the same time as the 34/55RSIs.
The price chart of AUY, itself, still is bullish, but it's going to have to "rally ugly" against the technicals, if you see what I mean.
That's why I decided to "sell into strength." I'd rather take the money than try to battle the technicals.
Nice re-entry, BTW. Applause. Good luck!
[/quote]
Holygrale,
Here's the H&S Top in the MACD, the second one since last July.
This one had a rather sharp downward slope to it, the validity of which some analysts question, but I always feel "the proof is in the puddin'."
AUY tanked 15.2%, from 13.35 to 11.32, in a matter of 3-days. For a stock that is this bullish to sell off that much, the pattern certainly was valid, in my opinion.
On Friday's rally, MACD ticked higher, from just below the zero line (hard to see on this chart). In a bullish stock, a bounce higher from anywhere near that zero line often is good for a rally.
But, again, you can see what I mean about "rally ugly," because the MACD will have to rally into its signal line, which is coming down hard.
AUY certainly still can rally some more, but if it does, it "could" run into a bit of trouble on a back kiss of its signal line. If MACD ticks down from that back kiss, more often than not, it isn't good.
On the last failed back kiss in September, AUY dropped (from the rally high in the MACD) 19.5%, from 9.71 to final low of 7.82 on October 4.
At that October 4 low, BTW, we can see that there was a DOUBLE positive divergence in the Histogram (Green #1 though #3).
As AUY went lower, at Green #2, the histogram said, "I'm not confirming that low," and at the final low, at Green #3, the histogram said, "I'm not only not confirming that new low, I'm getting much stronger."
After we get that kind of bullish information, a buy of the stock when MACD crosses above its signal line often is a very nice buy. In this case, that signal came on October 13, with AUY at 9.05.
At the Halloween close of 9.91, AUY was sitting at the top of the Kumo (Cloud), and also at the top of a DOUBLE Bullish Inverse H&S, champing at the bit for a breakout.
In addition to this blockbuster bullish formation, AUY also subsequently had a breakout of a BIG W-Bottom, above 11.38, which I've shown a number of times.
T2T, when I look at charts like this, I wonder why I ever make "marginal" plays, and why I don't wait and only play something like that looks this good.
Maybe everyone at 3SOF could pick ONE stock, and follow it closely. Don't even mention the stock until it looks something like this chart. Then, on October 31, 2006, post, "Hey, anybody want to play this breakout of a DOUBLE Inverse H&S Bottom?"
Wouldn't that be fun?! :D ;D
Anyway...
After that beautiful breakout, we can see that AUY had clear sailing above the Kumo (Cloud) and above the DOUBLE breakout. Both targets MADE handily, with no problem.
Since the 13.81 high, we can see where AUY ran into a spot of trouble. It found support at the 22-day (red), but when it rallied off there, we got a Bearish Cross of the 8-day (Green) and the 22-day (red).
From there, AUY sold off back into the Kumo (Cloud), and successfully re-tested the W-Bottom breakout, at 11.38.
On Friday's, AUY managed stuck the close ju-ust above the Kumo (Cloud), which I like to see.
12.64 - Close
12.59 - Top of the Kumo (Cloud)
12.49 - The 22-day
12.335 - The 8-day
The 8-day and 22-day still are bearishly positioned (they're inverted), but that soon can be rectified is AUY can continue to "rally ugly" against the technicals. Bullish stocks are able to do that.
This is a "Feet, don't fail me now!" situation. :D
AUY committed to "rally ugly" here, and if it doesn't follow-thru to the upside, "the force" (the technicals) isn't with it now, as it was during the rally out of the multiple breakout in the autumn.
Very much price weakness, for example, would have the MACD turning back down at/near zero, which usually isn't good.
If ya gotta "rally ugly," then ya gotta...but, RALLY! ;D
Melf, once again excellent analysis.......... Here's to a "Rally Ugly MONKEY"...........LOL ;D
I will keep a close eye on this new position in the event she begins to show weakness............
QuoteMaybe everyone at 3SOF could pick ONE stock, and follow it closely. Don't even mention the stock until it looks something like this chart. Then, on October 31, 2006, post, "Hey, anybody want to play this breakout of a DOUBLE Inverse H&S Bottom?"
Wouldn't that be fun?!
I think your onto something here, all my years of experience says that "Timing is everything", and the fact is:
Chartists + 1000's of stocks + TA (particular set-ups what your suggesting) + FA + right place right time= MASSIVE Opportunity
With this you get hundreds of eyes looking or the same strong set up ............I like it.
Quote from: Holygrale on January 13, 2007, 12:26:53 PM
Melf, once again excellent analysis.......... Here's to a "Rally Ugly MONKEY"...........LOL ;D
Holygrale,
LOL. I like that. ;D
And, when charts have been this bullish, they sure can "Rally Ugly MONKEY."
Quote
I will keep a close eye on this new position in the event she begins to show weakness............
I will, too.
My feeling on the rally off 11.32 is that the fundamentals are trumping the technicals, because AUY is "rallying ugly" against what the technicals are indicating.
Strong stocks can do that.
Quote
I think your onto something here, all my years of experience says that "Timing is everything", and the fact is:
Chartists + 1000's of stocks + TA (particular set-ups what your suggesting) + FA + right place right time= MASSIVE Opportunity
With this you get hundreds of eyes looking or the same strong set up ............I like it.
Exactly.
As much as I would like to read every folder, I doubt that I've gotten through even 10% of them, and often when I do, like in this folder, and in the ONT folder, I'm way-y too late to the trade (I was fine on the pullback entry in AUY, though).
But, the 1.35 target in ONT already had MADE before I got there.
If we had someone specifically in charge of watching ONT, and an "alert" folder, we could sign on, and find posts like:
"December 13 - ONT had a channel breakout today at $0.94, after coming off a successful tag of the 50DMA, after a Bullish Cross of the 50/200DMAs, at $0.78.
It closed today at $0.93. $1.35 is IN PLAY if ONT rallies, for a gain of 45.2% from today's close, if the target gets MADE."
Oh-h-h, buddy! :o :o :o
Speaking of buddies, good luck to you and our buddy, nullz, in AUY! :D
14.94 still is IN PLAY from the W-Bottom breakout in early November.
Thanks melf im going to see if I can ride the tide up on AUY. Seeing all the good news (NYSE switch, good production numbers, etc., and the possibility for a rise continued rise in the POG.)
NEW YORK, Jan 12, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Today, NYSE Group, Inc. (NYX, Trade), welcomed Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY, Trade), a transfer from the American Stock Exchange and a global leader in the production and exploration of gold and copper-gold development properties, to the world's leading equity market.
Yamana Gold Inc.'s listing positions the company among NYSE-listed leaders in the gold mining industry: Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX, Trade), Goldcorp Inc. (GG, Trade), AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU, Trade), Gold Fields Limited (GFI, Trade) and Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY, Trade).
"We are proud to welcome Yamana Gold Inc. to our family of listed companies," said NYSE Group, Inc. President & co-COO Catherine R. Kinney. "Yamana Gold is an outstanding addition to the 83 leading Canadian companies listed on the NYSE. We look forward to our partnership with the company and to providing them with the superior market quality and unsurpassed brand visibility that issuers from around the world have come to expect from listing on the New York Stock Exchange."
"We are very pleased to be listed on the NYSE, the pre-eminent stock exchange in the world," said Yamana Gold Inc. President & CEO Peter Marrone. "Yamana has experienced tremendous growth over the last few years and for us to qualify for listing on this premier exchange further validates how we have grown into the leading intermediate gold producer."
Yamana Gold Inc. marks the first non-U.S. listing and transfer to NYSE Group, Inc. year-to-date.
To celebrate this special occasion, Yamana Gold Inc. President & CEO Peter Marrone rang today's Opening Bell.
About Yamana Gold Inc.
Yamana is a Canadian gold producer with significant gold and copper-gold production, gold development stage properties, exploration properties, and land positions in Brazil, Argentina and Central America. Yamana expects to produce gold at intermediate company production levels in 2007 in addition to significant copper production. Company management plans to continue to build on this base through the advancement of its exploration properties and by targeting other gold consolidation opportunities in Brazil, Argentina and elsewhere in Latin America.
About NYSE Group, Inc
NYSE Group, Inc. (NYX, Trade) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange LLC (the "NYSE") and NYSE Arca, Inc. (formerly known as the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. In 2006, on an average trading day, 2.3 billion shares, valued at $86.8 billion, were traded on the exchanges of the NYSE Group.
The NYSE is the world's largest and most liquid cash equities exchange. The NYSE provides a reliable, orderly, liquid and efficient marketplace where investors buy and sell listed companies' common stock and other securities. On December 31, 2006, the operating companies listed on the NYSE represented a total global market capitalization of $25.0 trillion.
NYSE Arca, Inc. operates the former ArcaEx(R), the first open, all-electronic stock exchange in the United States, which has a leading position in trading exchange-traded funds and exchange-listed securities. NYSE Arca, Inc. is also an exchange for trading equity options. NYSE Arca, Inc.'s trading platforms provide customers with fast electronic execution and open, direct and anonymous market access.
NYSE Regulation, an independent not-for-profit subsidiary, regulates member organizations through the enforcement of marketplace rules and federal securities laws. NYSE Regulation also ensures that companies listed on the NYSE and NYSE Arca meet their financial and corporate governance listing standards.
For more information on NYSE Group, go to: www.nyse.com.
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Certain statements in this release may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on NYSE Group's current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause NYSE Group's actual results to differ materially from those set forth in the statements. There can be no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause NYSE Group's results to differ materially from current expectations include, but are not limited to: NYSE Group's ability to implement its strategic initiatives, economic, political and market conditions and fluctuations, government and industry regulation, interest rate risk and U.S. and global competition, and other factors detailed in NYSE Group's Annual Report on Form 10-K and other periodic reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, these statements are based on a number of assumptions that are subject to change. Accordingly, actual results may be materially higher or lower than those projected. The inclusion of such projections herein should not be regarded as a representation by NYSE Group that the projections will prove to be correct. NYSE Group undertakes no obligation to release any revisions to any forward-looking statements.
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[email protected] Copyright Business Wire 2007 ********************************************************************** As of Monday, 01-08-2007 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend(SM) Alert, an automated pattern recognition system, indicated an UPTREND on 09-28-2006 for ABX @ $31.19. As of Monday, 01-08-2007 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend(SM) Alert, an automated pattern recognition system, indicated a DOWNTREND on 01-05-2007 for AU @ $44.20. As of Monday, 01-08-2007 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend(SM) Alert, an automated pattern recognition system, indicated an UPTREND on 11-27-2006 for GFI @ $17.61. For more information on Comtex SmarTrend? Alert, contact your market data provider or go to www.CSTADirect.com SmarTrend is a registered trademark of Comtex News Network, Inc. Copyright ? 2004-2007 Comtex News Network, Inc. All rights reserved.
AUY trading in the high 11s I think today is a good time to buy a position. The short term pullback I cant see lasting more then today or tomorrow.
After jumping out yesterday at $12.52 I decided to jump back in today at $11.82 near the close.
I'm sticking to my day trade scenario as long as it stays volatile like this.
Stop losses/limit orders work when you need them to!
Very curious to see where we trade tomorrow. The options the reason for this volatility one would assume.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 13, 2007, 06:09:29 AM
The 8-day and 22-day still are bearishly positioned (they're inverted), but that soon can be rectified is AUY can continue to "rally ugly" against the technicals. Bullish stocks are able to do that.
This is a "Feet, don't fail me now!" situation. :D
AUY committed to "rally ugly" here, and if it doesn't follow-thru to the upside, "the force" (the technicals) isn't with it now, as it was during the rally out of the multiple breakout in the autumn.
Updated price chart.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 13, 2007, 04:29:55 AM
At Friday's close, the 34/55RSIs now are at BEARISH Synchronicity, below the neckline of the H&S Top, and below the 34/55EMAs, which have rolled over to the downside.
Updated 34/55 RSIs.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 13, 2007, 05:18:45 AM
On Friday's rally, MACD ticked higher, from just below the zero line (hard to see on this chart). In a bullish stock, a bounce higher from anywhere near that zero line often is good for a rally.
But, again, you can see what I mean about "rally ugly," because the MACD will have to rally into its signal line, which is coming down hard.
Updated MACD chart.
Given the technical weakness and the failure to continue to "Rally Ugly Monkey," right at Kumo (Cloud) resistance, I would be surprised if AUY didn't at least re-test the 11.38 W-Bottom breakout.
EDIT: Updated price and 34/55RSI charts are at the bottom of page 4.
AUY is in green so far today, im hoping it stays like that.
Nice close, I'm glad to see the POG was up as well.........
Houston.............We need VOLUME!!
I like yesterday's bounce on AUY, suggesting a "higher low" in this phase of the pullback. Obviously this needs upside confirmation to demonstarte that this is a new upswing. The candle is also an "inside day" which often suggests a reversal after the previous red candle. Again, this need s confirmation.
In terms of larger patterns, this retrace looks like a flag (although it is expanding a bit, like a wedge, which we would like to see break to the upside. There may be some support at 11.68-11.71, and below that, the area between 11.36 and 11.50 should provide solid support. In terms of resistance, near-term, AUY wants to get over 12.15 and the 50SMA, and then attack larger resistance at 12.50. This may end up corresponding to a breakout of the flag pattern. Also nice to see how volume has been increasing over the last 3-4 months, and is still high.
I picked up some yesterday at $12.00. Not the ideal entry, but I've been too heavy in tech lately, so I like the idea of holding some gold for a bit, to see how it does. With a stop at $11.30, it leaves me open to some risk (about 6%), but a break above 12.50 should put 13.80 in play (top of flag) and possibly $15 (measured move off the flag breakout).
Updated chart of AUY, AUY is sitting slightly below the 50DMA . The support at 11.50 held up and AUY bounced from it. The moving averages are very tight right now and the MACD looks like its on its way up with a crossover into the positive. We just need the POG to raise and sucessfully climb over 640 then that will give a green light for AUY to rally up.
Strong bullish move today still going higher! Trading at 12.89 atm up over 8% :). New 52wk highs are around the corner. Will post a updated chart at the end of the day.
Chart looks like its ready to run more tomorrow!
HUGE move today, even had a chance to pull the trigger and buy 5k more this morning at $12.30................ ;D
Gidde up!
Fire works have just begun, for the NEXT Leg up!
I was sitting and waiting for the run today. I knew the POG had a good chance to blow over 640 and it did today. Combine the fact that the MAs were so tight and that many shorts were still in AUY. It caused a explosive breakout with high volume.
Follow thru is everything, nice Volume too.................. ;D
This one is shaping up nicely..........
Huge breakout coming on 10+million in volume........Watch for it!
Play the dips for .10-15 cent day trades along with your core position........ :o
I would love to get into this like I did back in November when it had a sharp increase. I can't tell for sure based on the graph if we are in for another good run. I would love to own this again and make money on the trade again. But not sure if this is one of those you can time right to make the nice up ticks. I will look to get into this one early next week.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 19, 2007, 06:12:01 AM
Given the technical weakness and the failure to continue to "Rally Ugly Monkey," right at Kumo (Cloud) resistance, I would be surprised if AUY didn't at least re-test the 11.38 W-Bottom breakout.
AUY stopped going down
right there (the "Thumbs Up" on the chart).
Instead of re-testing 11.38, it "rallied ugly" again, against the technicals, only this time AUY broke out above the validated channel (at Green #3), and the technicals have "gotten well."
Quote from: ScottishTrader on January 20, 2007, 10:13:21 AM
In terms of larger patterns, this retrace looks like a flag (although it is expanding a bit, like a wedge, which we would like to see break to the upside.
Scotsman,
That "expanding" deal threw me off, but here's what I think that was:
1. Draw a line coming off the 12.18 low, parallel to the top of the channel.
2. AUY breaks below it, to go down to 11.32 to validate the W-bottom breakout, as support.
3. It then does the "Rally Ugly Monkey," against the technicals, back into the channel, gets stopped at the top of the Kumo, and sells off to 11.75.
4. Where does the selloff stop? Smack on the bottom of the channel, where the green "Thumbs Up" is.
Aha!
Now it's the Bull Flag (pattern in green) that it "should have been," but it had a Bear Trap fakeout to 11.32, and validated the W-Bottom breakout as support.
(EDIT: Some of you will remember that BRCD did this identical thing during all of the channel morphing, prior to the big breakout to the upside)
Quote from: nullzero on January 23, 2007, 02:24:54 PM
Strong bullish move today still going higher!
nullz,
Nice job there. Yes, AUY broke out above the top of the validated channel (Green #3) the next session, and has been consolidated at the top of the channel since.
Next couple of posts, I'll show you what I mean about the technicals "getting well" during this "Rally Ugly Monkey" phase.
MACD "getting well" during the Rally Ugly Monkey phase.
34/55 RSIs "getting well" during the Rally Ugly Monkey phase.
Bought back my AUY at 13.10.
Melf, that is good news................. ;D
Major spike coming I can feel it..............LOL
Asside from my core position, day trading this one for $500 on 10-15 cent moves is pretty routine and is recommended, this one is showing GREAT strength........
Heres to a soon to come Limit up day!
Quote from: Holygrale on January 30, 2007, 11:55:23 PM
Melf, that is good news................. ;D
Major spike coming I can feel it..............LOL
Holygrale,
"From your lips...to the market gawd's ears!" :D
The chart and the technicals both support a move higher here. If we get any more selloff, I'd like to see the top of the channel continue to be support on a closing basis. It comes in today at about 12.92.
Nice, real nice............almost the 10 million shares I was looking for, only you have to love how she's back filling on the dips with heavy bids ...........
Any pilots out there that can help us clear the runway...........LOL :o
Not sure what most are making out of POG and the serious strength AUY is showing, but that LIMIT-UP spike is coming on 12 million shares instead of the 10 I originally was looking for...............LOL
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 30, 2007, 09:39:54 AM
Bought back my AUY at 13.10.
Sold 20% of my AUY at 13.81, at the top of the channel. Gain: 5.4%
Holding 80% of the position long.
Melf,
I sold my 2000 shares of AUY at 13.75 when you had mentioned that it hit some resistance. I am glad that I did because it did go lower after that sell.
However, I really like AUY since it will earn about $1.00 next year x about 25 pe would give us an approx share price of $25.00 (if the price of gold holds steady).
To me it looks like the price of gold broke out of an ascending triangle recently that may measure to $800 (meaning higher prices for AUY). I don't know how to display the POG chart and I'm not very good at interpreting them... but this was my guess.
I noticed that you held on to 80% of your AUY shares. Is there a reason that you are still invested? Do you have any ideas on the price of AUY/POG?
I really appreciate your opinions and look forward to your ideas on this.
In looking at the POG chart it looks like it was not an "ascending triangle" but a "symmetrical triangle" (I had to look the chart analysis up since I am not too keen with this...) that started in May 2006 and then the breakout occurred recently when the price went above $640. The top support line also seems to be supported by the 20ma @ $636 and 40ma @ $632. I think this would hopefully substantiate a higher price for AUY also in the future?
I would like to buy back into AUY if there seems some support and room for it to grow....
Quote from: brandyjoco on February 03, 2007, 05:14:34 PM
Melf,
I sold my 2000 shares of AUY at 13.75 when you had mentioned that it hit some resistance. I am glad that I did because it did go lower after that sell.
Brandyjoco,
AUY broke out of the recent channel (in green) at 13.02, on January 24. That automatically put the December 5 high at the top of the channel, 13.81, IN PLAY.
Quote
I noticed that you held on to 80% of your AUY shares
Right.
I like to take at least some profits when targets get MADE so that I can lock in a winning trade, and in this particular case, so that I also can defend against the possibility of a Double Top at/near the prior 13.81 high.
We got a little Doji Star on Thursday, with follow-thru to the downside on Friday, so we might be coming back down toward the top of the Bull Flag/Channel, which comes in on Monday, February 5, at 12.8463.
Interestingly, the intraday lows since the January 24 breakout were 12.82 and 12.84, so we might see that again.
Quote
Is there a reason that you are still invested?
Yes.
On November 9, AUY broke out of a"W"-Bottom (I drew a "mini-picture" of that in the chart, above the month of August), within which was nested TWO Bullish Inverse H&S Shoulder patterns (the first one in green...the second one in blue).
NOTE: On that second one in blue...Cramer is no fan of technical analysis, but the timing of his October 27 call to switch out of GG into AUY was outstanding. That was the 9.40 low of the SECOND Right Shoulder of a DOUBLE Bullish Inverse H&S pattern!
From that 9.40 October 27 low to the December 5 high, AUY rallied 46.91%.
Give the devil his due, eh?! :D >:D
Back to the "W"-Bottom...
Not only do patterns that contain "nested patterns" tend to be more powerful on a breakout, in addition, "The bigger the base...the better the breakout." This base was of 6 months duration, May to November.
After the breakout November 9, AUY came back a bit below the breakout, in a Bull Flag formation, then
that also broke out, giving us quite a few upside targets IN PLAY.
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 01, 2006, 11:14:00 AM
Target #1 - 11.32 - October 24 "Nested" H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 6
Target #2 - 11.90 - November 22 Bull Flag Breakout (Top of Flag) - MADE Nov 27
Target #3 - 12.06 - November 1 Larger H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 29
Target #4 - 12.70 - November 22 Bull Flag "Measured Move" - MADE Nov 30
Target #5 - 13.01 - July 31 H&S Breakout "Lost Target" MADE Dec 1
Target #6 - 14.94 - November 8 "W"-Bottom Breakout- Still IN PLAY
Notice how rapidly the first five targets got MADE. Similar to XING on January 16, by the way, which also had a very powerful DOUBLE breakout, and which also MADE three upside targets very quickly after the breakout.
Those "blockbuster pattern breakouts" often are very, very nice.
In AUY, Target # 6, 14.94, has been IN PLAY since November 9. (Well, no, it went ON HOLD during the little Bull Flag below the breakout,
then back IN PLAY).
That's the BIG 6-month pattern upside target from the measurement above the 11.38 pivot of the "W"-Bottom, and it remains IN PLAY as long as AUY trades above 11.38.
Since that pattern is of 6 months duration, those targets tend to take a little longer to get MADE. If we're going to see 14.94, I would expect it to be by March 1 ... no later than May 6.
On January 5, AUY dipped below 11.38, to 11.32, for about a nanosecond, which turned out to be a great buy. It was a successful re-test of the "W"-Bottom breakout.
I was apprehensive about buying back the shares that I had sold, and ended up selling the remainder of my postion into strength, at 12.16, primarily because I didn't like the behavior in GG or in NEM, two of the big players in the sector, which gets us to...
Quote
Do you have any ideas on the price of AUY/POG?
No idea at all. I
don't chart the POG because I don't know the symbol (duh-h) to download it from Reuters for my Metastock, but primarily because I've learned over the years that often, there is a "disconnect" between the stock and the underlying commodity, or the stock and the fundamentals of its sector.
No better examples, recently, that Southern Peru Copper (PCU), and Pulte Homes (PHM).
The price of copper has been tanking, but PCU found support at the top of a Rectangle, at 49.16, on January 4, and has rallied to 64.45! I don't see any way in the world that anyone would play the long side of PCU if they were keying off a copper chart.
See what I mean?
Same with PHM.
Everything that we hear about the housing market is lousy. PHM recently cut its quarter from a profit of $0.30 to $0.70, to a loss, then came in with miserable numbers and was down in after hours trading. When the market opened, PHM rallied, and a bullish pattern target got MADE on Thursday!
Go figger, huh?! ??? ::)
But, technically, both charts have looked bullish (see the PCU folder on The Previous Picks Board, and the PHM folder of this board for the charts, if interested).
Next, I'll post you charts of GG and NEM in their respective folders, in case you're interested. GG, in particular, is bugging me. It finished off an Abandoned Baby on Friday, which almost had me abandon the remainder of my AUY trade, which I'm still considering.
??? ::)
Melf,
I know that PCU and PHM are going up when they should be logically going down. Which is always strange to me...
I've purchased AUY in the past and usually it goes up and down with the price of gold.
1)Gold prices can be tracked by the minute by going to the following internet site: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=d12
2)The technical patterns of Gold prices can be measured by using the code $GOLD in stockcharts.com
When I am using real time streamer I usually look at AUY and GLD (the Gold ETF fund). If GLD goes down (it almost always goes down at 12 noon est guaranteed) then AUY usually goes down with it. I notice if the price of gold goes up 2% then AUY goes up 5% and also when they go down.
Recently the price of gold (the symbol $GOLD on stockcharts.com which only shows the previous day's activities) broke over $640 which went above the symetrical triangle (pattern began in MAY 2006 and gold prices broke above the triangle in FEB 2007) and measures to over $800. However, on Friday the dollar went higher (and it is supposed open higher on Monday which will put further pressure on gold and the gold stocks). There is a small commentary on the price of the dollar on the INO website that I previously stated above.
Until the price of gold goes below $640 (the top of the symmetrical triangle) or goes below $636 (20ma) or 632 (40ma) I think the direction is unsure. Until then I think it is still bullish because it is above its supports of $640,$636,$632...which is why I am interested in buying back AUY. However, I will be patient and wait to see the trend.
Good luck deciding what to do with your AUY shares on Monday.
I hope I may have been some help though I don't do very well in the stock market in spite of the books I have read- that is why I appreciate your posts!!!
Quote from: brandyjoco on February 04, 2007, 04:13:17 PM
When I am using real time streamer I usually look at AUY and GLD (the Gold ETF fund). If GLD goes down (it almost always goes down at 12 noon est guaranteed) then AUY usually goes down with it. I notice if the price of gold goes up 2% then AUY goes up 5% and also when they go down.
Brandyjoco,
I studied the GLD yesterday and noticed that it broke out of this Symmetrical Triangle on Thursday morning, put in a nominal new high (a new high "in name only," because it wasn't by much, and it didn't hold up), like AUY did, then sold off Friday, back toward the breakout.
The GLD also put in an Abandoned Baby on Thursday, like GG did, but the GLD is heading back to what "should be" support at the top of the pattern breakout, while GG failed at a broken H&S Top resistance.
The GLD also gaps up and down a lot, so I don't want to make too much of Thursday's Abandoned Baby, but I did observe that gaps up, followed by gaps down in the GLD, "usually" have resulted in further downside.
We'll have to see. The fact that the GLD still is above a pattern breakout is a plus.
Quote
I hope I may have been some help though I don't do very well in the stock market in spite of the books I have read- that is why I appreciate your posts!!!
I enjoyed reading your post very much.
Boy, there's a world of difference between analyzing the market, and actually playing it, isn't there? The latter, by far, is the more difficult, and I'm glad if anything in my posts helps you with that.
Quote
Good luck deciding what to do with your AUY shares on Monday.
Thanks. Short-term support is a neckline from 13.21 to 13.25 (see intraday chart in the next post), so I've decided to throw it in on a print of 13.24, and take a 1% gain on the remaining 80% of my long position.
That will give me a total gain of 1.9% on this re-entry trade, so combined with the gain of 12.2% on my initial trade, that would put me at 14.1% on the two trades.
If I can get back in near the top of the Bull Flag (at 12.8463 for today), I will. If I don't get the chance, that's fine. I'll continue to watch it.
While I very much like AUY, I've got too many doubts about the sector, in general, so I'm going to go with, "When in doubt...get out" if I see 13.24 get printed in AUY.
Good luck, and thanks for your input! ;)
Next post, the 10-Minute intraday chart, with "possible" H&S Top.
A breakdown of this H&S Top would put roughly 12.54 IN PLAY. That's below the top of the Bull Flag in the daily chart (see last post), but the 50DMA comes in today right about at 12.54, so if we go down and tag that, or something close to it, in the next few days, then bounce back above the Bull Flag, that could be alright.
Nice work everyone on your posts/charts..............applaud.
Not sure on the action both on Friday and Today in both AUY/ POG, so I jumped out around 13.50- 13.53 today.
Sidelines appears to be the place for now, of course thats only if she continues her nap............
Always ready to pull the trigger................
AUY is indicated higher at the open, currently BID 13.75...ASK 13.76 on news that it's on track to begin commercial production at its Chapada mine.
Hopefully, that won't be a "Gap To Crap," and we'll soon see AUY take out last Thursday's 13.94 high, and move to the 14.94 target IN PLAY.
My stop remains the same: 13.24.
Back in at $13.55...........
I'm thinking POG will hold $650 this time, it's coiling pretty tight...........
Sold remaining 80% AUY at 13.24. Gain: 1%.
Gain on the re-entry: 1.9%. Gain on the two trades: 14.1%
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 07, 2007, 03:46:45 PM
Sold remaining 80% AUY at 13.24. Gain: 1%.
Gain on the re-entry: 1.9%. Gain on the two trades: 14.1%
They got me on that one! :(
Congratulations to those of you still long.
Major upleg on its way, the best part of riding a BULL is hanging on for dear life.............LOL and of course not to get thrown off to early (thats the hardest part)........
Melf, look for a dip, and get back in $15 is coming one way or the other..... ;D
Today was awesome, nice volume, stock closed at HOD, beat the all time high by a penny, breakout to bluesky coming, very bullish >:D
Quote from: Holygrale on February 08, 2007, 11:36:02 PM
Major upleg on its way, the best part of riding a BULL is hanging on for dear life.............LOL and of course not to get thrown off to early (thats the hardest part)........
Melf, look for a dip, and get back in $15 is coming one way or the other..... ;D
Any dip or a certain percentage thereof? I have wanted to own this stock for a long time and just never pulled the trigger.
Lancefur, its hard to say since shes in unchartered territory, but I think shell fill the gap and the scream straight up.................but who knows.
I will add to my core position for a day trade at $13.95.........or $14.00
If she retreats early in the day, that would be a good sign IMHO......
Wow what a day..........fortunately for me I was glued to the screen some what and was able to play this bull pretty good.........For me I tip my hat with a beer in hand, thanking her for the profitable ride.............
I sold near the open at $14.20.......and waited ......
I then doubled down limit at $14 thinking she would fill the gap and she did, briefly touched $13.97 and screamed up to $14.35 where I sold at $14.29..........
I bought back at 1/2 my shares at $13.92, talk about prematurely only to see her dive to a low of $13.57............what :o
Long and strong into the weekend, hopefully $13.50 holds............
POG is looking good, limit-up move is coming.............AKA parabolic!
Holygrale,
I noticed from your post that you do some day trading.
I'm just wondering if you use level 2 and wait for block trades before entering or do you mainly base your decisions using charts?
Continuously learning,
Ares
Eatinfolikefish.......
Stocks are like people............
If you watch their behavior long enough, you have a good chance of predicting their movements........In other words only date 1 stock at a time(100% committed in its direction with hard facts, BS doesn't count).......this is no joke! I've learned the hard way many times..........
Right Now the pros are screaming BUY gold, and so am I since 2002.......I'm committed in 2007 and beyond, to me this is the sector to be in.
So to further answer your question.......
I dont use level 2........
I only day trade 2 types of stocks...........
1) ones that I'm 100% commited with core position ( I buy on the dips for the daytrade).
2) momentum stocks (great P.R or block buster news) with HUGE volume!
Charts do speak their own language, its called what the average buyer is willing to pay, and what the average seller is willing to sell at............
Just remember, Facts trump all indicators, and VOLUME doesn't lie!
Someone on this board has a good saying, and it might be Randsburgh who says it........."plan your work, and work your plan".
I just explained you mine in a nutshell, but its taken 8 yrs and thousands of dollars worth of lessons................LOL
Wish you the best.
Hi Holygrale,
Thank you so much for responding.
At first I thought you were going to ignore my inquiry.
Starting today, I'm going to brush up and improve my chart reading skills by reading as much as I can from the Technical Analysis Section of 3SOF's message board.
I'm on a mission to find out what majority of trader's are looking for and to trade with them.
I will be posting my observations in the Personal Logs Section titled
" Daytrading with Consensus."
I respect your trading experience and am looking forward to any comments you have.
I'll keep in mind that "volume doesn't lie."
Thanks again,
Ares
Eatinfolikefish,no worries.............thats whats great about 3SOF web site.
Follow Melf Elf for the technical side, that guy is money IMHO........he calls them right more often than not. I respect his TA work.
We're having a nice consolidation of the straight-up rally from 13.16 to 14.35.
Today's trading is a Symmetrical Triangle: Highs: 13.94..13.93; Lows: 13.71...13.70. We could get a gap fill of 13.63 - 13.59, but if AUY takes out today's highs, a breakout of the entire pattern would put the recent high of 14.35 IN PLAY.
In a bullish trend, expect these patterns to be bullish continuations.
Until they aren't. :D
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 13, 2007, 02:54:38 PM
We're having a nice consolidation of the straight-up rally from 13.16 to 14.35.
Today's trading is a Symmetrical Triangle: Highs: 13.94..13.93; Lows: 13.71...13.70. We could get a gap fill of 13.63 - 13.59, but if AUY takes out today's highs, a breakout of the entire pattern would put the recent high of 14.35 IN PLAY.
In a bullish trend, expect these patterns to be bullish continuations.
Until they aren't. :D
This mean you are back in?
Quote from: lancefur on February 13, 2007, 03:03:26 PM
This mean you are back in?
lancefur,
Yes, I'm back in. I planned only to day trade it on the pullback this morning, but I'm going to hold it. I like the consolidation pattern that I posted, and I also like the fact that we're getting a second bounce out of Bullish Synchronicity in the 13/21 RSIs (chart below).
Hopefully I didn't get in too high. I bought at 13.89. 8)
Nice work guys........
Personally I think tomorrow or Thursday the POG breaks out BIG time and of course this one should follow, so I had to buy some more just in case so I bought the other half at $13.89..........
Quote from: Holygrale on February 14, 2007, 12:33:01 AM
Nice work guys........
Personally I think tomorrow or Thursday the POG breaks out BIG time and of course this one should follow, so I had to buy some more just in case so I bought the other half at $13.89..........
Holygrale,
That would be nice. ;)
I'd sure like to see the gold stocks perform better than they did last Friday, when the POG was up $9. They all rallied, but then reversed, and most of them closed lower. I don't know what that was about.
??? ::) :'(
NEM, in particular, has been a huge drag on the sector.
But, the GLD broke out of a Symmetrical Triangle on January 23 at 63.86, putting 75.23 IN PLAY, and recently, it has been temporizing near the July, 2006 high of 66.42, possibly morphing into an Ascending Triangle (horizontal dotted blue line).
We'd like to see that (66.42 - 66.38) get taken out to the upside. This consolidation pattern since last June easily looks strong enough to support the kind of rally that the GLD enjoyed back in March and April, 2006 (left side of the chart).
We wouldn't mind seeing a replay of that, would we? :D
The breakout of yesterday's Symmetrical Triangle in the 10-Minute chart (below) was a print a 13.91. AUY gapped over it at the open, putting 14.15 IN PLAY.
Math:
13.94 - High of the pattern
13.70 - Low of the pattern
13.94 - 13.70 = 0.24 points added to the 13.91 breakout = Target: 14.15
AUY went to 14.12 on the opening gap, then sold off to 13.91 exactly.
The selloff to 13.91 accompllished TWO things:
1. It filled the gap from yesterday's 13.90 close
2. It was a successful re-test of the breakout.
After that kind of nice technical action, we would expect to see 14.15 get MADE, which it just did at 10:21 AM, as I was typing.
Looks good.
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 14, 2007, 10:27:13 AM
After that kind of nice technical action, we would expect to see 14.15 get MADE, which it just did at 10:21 AM, as I was typing.
We just printed 13.89, the low on the day, and we've bounced a little, to 13.92. I'll sell the last of my trading position from yesterday if we print 13.88, FWIW.
Sold the last of my AUY at 13.97.
Someone was definately heavy on the ask today again, someone who will be covering shortly above $14.15 IMHO............... ;D If that happens $14.50 will come in a hurry..........
USDX was showing major weakness today, if it continues it will only bode well for POG...............
Melf, your right on the +$9 in POG and not much movement in the miners, pretty strange, but I still think breakout is imminent............+ or - 2 days............but then again, what do I know......LOL
I will say that daytrading this for .15 cent pops here and there and selling for $750 in gains is the way to go while mainting your core position..............
A tight stop might be in order by EOD tomorrow, we'll see.........
Quote from: Holygrale on February 14, 2007, 11:31:19 PM
Someone was definately heavy on the ask today again, someone who will be covering shortly above $14.15 IMHO............... ;D If that happens $14.50 will come in a hurry...
Holygrale,
AUY didn't break below any support, so that very well could be. The upside targets still are IN PLAY.
Quote
Melf, your right on the +$9 in POG and not much movement in the miners, pretty strange, but I still think breakout is imminent............+ or - 2 days............but then again, what do I know......LOL
It seems as though there's some kind of disconnect between the gold stocks and the rallies in the POG, although it might just be temporary. Yesterday was similar to last Friday, when the POG was up $9. The gold stocks came out of the gate real strong, and then faded for the remainder of the day.
The initial rally yesterday in AUY looked real good. The pullback to 13.91, to fill the gap and also to re-test the top of the Symmetrical Triangle looked very good. The 14.15 target getting MADE looked great!
But, then, a selloff from 14.15 to 13.89? ??? ::)
13.89 actually was another successful re-test of the top of the Symmetrical triangle (the one with the 13.94...13.93 highs), so that's okay, but going back to re-test that breakout
twice looked weak, with the POG up $3-$4, and holding steady.
It bothers me that we aren't getting convincing moves higher, like a breakout above 66.42 - 66.38 in the GLD, which closed at 66.37. It's right there, champing at the bit for breakout, but what's it waiting for, with the POG already having had a good rally?
I decided to cash in, and see what develops from here.
Still long.......
These last 3 days have been interesting to say the least heavy ASK sizes again, but there being bought..............the tug of war continues.
Not sure what to think, but tomorrows the day one direction or the other IMO......... we'll see.
Showing great strength this morning, is short covering on its way?????
Interesting week to say the least............
Talk about hanging tough...........
Those day trades have also been adding up this week as well.......... .10cents+.11cents+.19cents today= .40 cents total
Not too shabby...........
Still long..............Still looking for that Breakout.............hopefully its not a break down..........LOL
Jumped out with both feet $14.02-05.................
Will wait on the sidelines for now.
Nice move for AUY today up over 5%.
WOW! She done good again.
I was daytrading CYTR this morning for a quick .15cent gain, I sold, and lucky for me I backed up the truck again in Yamana at $14.03 where I sold yesterday............Nice!
Hopefully some others were able to jump in on this Monster in the making.......... :o
$15+ within the next 3 trading days.............IMO
Gold went up today on inflation news, but the overall trend remains bullish, we are looking good here! I see 15.30 as a conservative target of a recent symettrical triangle breakout ;)
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 01, 2006, 11:14:00 AM
Target #1 - 11.32 - October 24 "Nested" H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 6
Target #2 - 11.90 - November 22 Bull Flag Breakout (Top of Flag) - MADE Nov 27
Target #3 - 12.06 - November 1 Larger H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 29
Target #4 - 12.70 - November 22 Bull Flag "Measured Move" - MADE Nov 30
Target #5 - 13.01 - July 31 H&S Breakout "Lost Target" MADE Dec 1
Target #6 - 14.94 - November 8 "W"-Bottom Breakout- Still IN PLAY
14.94
finally MADE.
I talked myself out of this rally because of the last two rallies in the POG, and the lack of response in the gold stocks.
Curses! >:D
Congratulations to those of you who have it. ;)
Still long, interesting to see how fast $15 came......... ;D
I said yesterday + or - 3 days for it to hit $15, boy was I wrong. Im not sure where she will go from here, all depends on the POG.
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 22, 2007, 01:21:25 PM
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 01, 2006, 11:14:00 AM
Target #1 - 11.32 - October 24 "Nested" H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 6
Target #2 - 11.90 - November 22 Bull Flag Breakout (Top of Flag) - MADE Nov 27
Target #3 - 12.06 - November 1 Larger H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 29
Target #4 - 12.70 - November 22 Bull Flag "Measured Move" - MADE Nov 30
Target #5 - 13.01 - July 31 H&S Breakout "Lost Target" MADE Dec 1
Target #6 - 14.94 - November 8 "W"-Bottom Breakout- Still IN PLAY
14.94 finally MADE.
I talked myself out of this rally because of the last two rallies in the POG, and the lack of response in the gold stocks.
Curses! >:D
Congratulations to those of you who have it. ;)
I cant credit myself for getting in, nullzero first brought the stock to my attention, then when I kept hearing Eric Bolling on CNBC talk about gold almost nightly, I finally bought. That guy is a major NYMEX commodities trader who seems to be always right, he is on Fast Money nightly now, one of the few guys on TV who actually uses charts to explain the action. He swears gold will take out its high.
Quote from: tokyopua on February 23, 2007, 02:00:49 AM
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 22, 2007, 01:21:25 PM
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 01, 2006, 11:14:00 AM
Target #1 - 11.32 - October 24 "Nested" H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 6
Target #2 - 11.90 - November 22 Bull Flag Breakout (Top of Flag) - MADE Nov 27
Target #3 - 12.06 - November 1 Larger H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 29
Target #4 - 12.70 - November 22 Bull Flag "Measured Move" - MADE Nov 30
Target #5 - 13.01 - July 31 H&S Breakout "Lost Target" MADE Dec 1
Target #6 - 14.94 - November 8 "W"-Bottom Breakout- Still IN PLAY
14.94 finally MADE.
I talked myself out of this rally because of the last two rallies in the POG, and the lack of response in the gold stocks.
Curses! >:D
Congratulations to those of you who have it. ;)
I cant credit myself for getting in, nullzero first brought the stock to my attention, then when I kept hearing Eric Bolling on CNBC talk about gold almost nightly, I finally bought. That guy is a major NYMEX commodities trader who seems to be always right, he is on Fast Money nightly now, one of the few guys on TV who actually uses charts to explain the action. He swears gold will take out its high.
Nice to see you are doing well in AUY. Glad I could help you find this stock :).
Yes, and it was well worth a belated applaud just now too nullzero! ;D
Nice work everyone for staying with this winner..........
POG entering parabolic formation ..........IMHO ;D
We should experience limit up move days soon............
Another solid day, consolidation continues............
Ouch, talk about a sell-off................
Just when I thought selling in the early a.m around 14.94ish was brilliant..........I then decided to get back in at $15 thinking the bottom was in...........OUCH.........
Stayed in, waiting for her to settle to triple down...............LOL
Well the triple down worked at 13.98-14.00.............. ;D
These price swings are as wild as my mother in laws mood swings......LOL
No matter how you slice it, VOLATILITY will always give you OPPORTUNITY...............
Hope some stayed with it and reloaded...............
Quote from: Holygrale on February 28, 2007, 11:04:28 PM
Hope some stayed with it and reloaded...............
Holygrale,
I haven't played any of the gold stocks lately, for the same reason that I mentioned last week:
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 22, 2007, 01:21:25 PM
I talked myself out of this rally because of the last two rallies in the POG, and the lack of response in the gold stocks.
Curses! >:D
Congratulations to those of you who have it. ;)
The gold stocks, as a group, still haven't responded to the big move up in the POG. Last Friday, for example, The HUI (Gold Bug Index), made a nominal new high above the November 362.53, by five cents, at 362.58, then fell back to its 50DMA.
And, it's still below the September high of 369.38, and well below the May high of HUI 401.69.
Given what the POG has done, it would seem that this index should be gone on the upside, but it isn't.
??? ::)
Maybe it's just putting in another bullish pattern, the Ascending Triangle (pattern in green), then it will
finally breakout, and take out HUI 369 and HUI 401.
If it breaks out, that would put something like HUI 450 IN PLAY.
Glad that you're doing well with it. ;)
Melf, I will say this, you have to be baby sitting the stock to make any money with this right now, but for me its been working out...............
I am just daytrading it for now, and have been pretty successful at it......whewwwww
Its not easy, my buyin from yesterday was dumped today at 14.40-45.........
Bought back at the close today, 1/2 my postion, hopefully she holds, we'll see.........
What a day, wheres support? ???
LOL
My buyin from yesterday at close was sold at 13.92...........ouch
I then shorted at 14.06 and bought back at 13.89.........I bought back way too early! ???
Bought back BIG with a Triple down yet again at 13.51-.52 and sold 1/2 of the position at 13.80............ ;D
This is not easy...............exhausting.
When POG decides to bounce and the buying starts from the commercials ..................LOOKOUT!
This will be a Rocket............IMHO
Wow, I double down where I think the botom is $13.00 and sell at $13.40..........only to see it close to the low of the day............ ???
Still hanging tough, bought back in at the close $12.96.............1/2 my position.
Gitte up, wheres the rebound...........?????
Quote from: Holygrale on March 05, 2007, 11:10:10 PM
Wow, I double down where I think the botom is $13.00 and sell at $13.40..........only to see it close to the low of the day............ ???
Still hanging tough, bought back in at the close $12.96.............1/2 my position.
Gitte up, wheres the rebound...........?????
I believe gold is going to trade down together with gold stocks as the current global correction progresses. Things like the yen carry trade unwinding are part of the selloff in high yield equities and commodities. In addition, there has developed a large net short position on gold.
An overall market bounce expected in the next few days should provide some relief, but after that its likely downward again with the market correction.
I like the way Eric Bolling from Fast Money puts it:
"Gold is a hedge againts inflation, it is not a hedge against the market."
Hope this perspective helps, best of luck to you with AUY!
Quote from: Holygrale on March 01, 2007, 10:07:13 PM
Melf, I will say this, you have to be baby sitting the stock to make any money with this right now, but for me its been working out...............
I am just daytrading it for now, and have been pretty successful at it......whewwwww
Holygrale,
I'm glad that you're doing well with AUY.
When I sold it for 13.96, I was stymied over whether AUY would be able to drag lousy looking stocks like GG higher, and the targets of 14.94 and 15.15 would get MADE, or if lousy looking stocks like GG were going to drag AUY lower.
Answer: Both.
AUY rallied, GG got dragged higher with it, but GG only chased the bottom of its broken Bearish Rising Wedge, and didn't even come close to making a new high, while AUY went significantly higher, and both targets (14.94 and 15.15) got MADE.
GG then tanked off the re-test failure, and dragged AUY down with it. :P
GG closed below its January low, but on a Possible Bullish Inverted Hammer yesterday, so it might make a run for the broken Ascending Line (blue). It tried to hang on there three sessions ago, but failed.
The Inverted 50/200s are up there near that trendline, as well.
Melf,
Not sure how I've managed to be close to even when comparing todays price against when she was trading in the $15.00+, but its worked out. Whats kept me alive is the double and triple downs for the day tades these last few sessions.
The best part is any and all upside gains from here will be uncharted account gains.........LOL
Thanks for your charts and insight.............
Excellent follow thru today, sold 1/2 my positon including the day trade position for a nice profit between $14.01-.03............Nice! ;D
I always hold 1/2 overnight in case of News or a gap up in POG.............and then simply avg down.
I will call it now and say $670 POG will be here sooner than we think...........JMHO.
Too much confusion in the markets, flight for safety always is a best bet!
Got Gold?
Still long, will have to play a possible tight stop, or load the boat at $13.50 depending on volume and POG..............
Jumped out mid day on the move to 13.88 when she lost steam........I had a double down at 13.50 that never materialized...............
I have no position at this time, will wait for market guidance, POG, or until chartmaster Melf himself says its a go.............. : )
Bought half near the close at $13.90, shes looking like she's stabilizing.............with a move in POG this is over $14 easily.......we'll see.
Double dip intraday might signal the bottom is in...............
Tomorrow, I might have to back up the truck.............LOL
Some decent news afterhours, steady as she goes.............Shes finding good support last couple of days.....
You gotta love the follow thru......... ;D
Had sold entire position on Thursday at $14.74-.75..........after the down grade, was never fond of UBS by the way. The fact is you need to wait and see what the market prices the stock...............
POG was down $7 today so I bought back today 1/2 postion........near the close $14.20.........
Nice rally today, steady as she goes...........
Will produce 1 million ounces in 2008..........Are you kidding me, by then POG should be $750+ oz ............load up the IRA long term account..........LOL
Stuck in a range, but she should turn one way or the other........I think to the upside soon enough. POG acting up like water boiling in a kettle...........listen, can your here the whistle? ? ? All aboard...........LOL
Parabolic move in POG is coming.
Nice run today...........Shes picking up steam, when she breaks $15 I'm hoping for 10+million in volume..........
Chart looking good........
POG looking good.............
She only did 6.9 million in volume, not quite the 10 million I was looking for as she broke through $15, but never the less it's been the shorts covering or else it would have screamed higher.............IMHO
Wait til "true buying/new positions" are taken, she will break out to knew highs and blast through $16 in 2 days............... but what do I know, it could roll over like my 9 yr old Lab does when I throw the ball...........LOL
POG appears to be be breaking out...............of course this bodes well for GOLD producers like YAMANA..........
Good support seems to be around $14.50.............
Great buying opportunity.........IMHO
Steady as she goes, POG looking like she wants to run...........its up $10 today, coiled spring is about to uncoil.............
Just a hunch, but major swing is coming one way or the other.............
Tight stop might be in order. I'm also reading the commercials have major short positions, we'll see.
Doubled down yesterday at $14.20.............Hopefully 14.10 holds.
Nice move today, major Bids all afternoon.
Looks like a great buying opportunity today, so I doubled down yesterday and today between 13.40- .53..............
Lets hope for some support in POG so we can get a strong rally from here!
Follow thru is everything.............NIce! ;D
Sold half near the close...........Will buy back if warrented or on a dip, but I'm definitley long!
Explosive move on its way........IMHO
Nice rally today from both POG and AUY.........
AUY 1st quarter results after Market close on Monday, not sure if I will hold............(years of trading has mostly proven to me never to hold) The chart, a possible rebound in POG, just might persuade me to hold........we'll see. Still long, added a few more thousand shares today at $13.83............ ;D
Hoping $13 holds, bought a bunch at $13.18 ................
Follow thru is everything..........Gidde up!
Anyone seen POG today, is she still at the bar loading up on fuel..........for petes sake, some one drag her out, were all waiting for her at the party that starts at $700.00pm ............and tell her not to be late................. ;D
She shows strength when needed, this is just signs of a STRONG stock.............I rarely say this, but strong buy on all dips............LOL
Great buying opportunity thid morning.........IMHO
I believe this is going towards the MA 200, to the 11's.
I guess ya never know........One thing for sure is that its wayyyyyyyyy oversold..........
We need a relief rally from POG..........hoping $650 holds.........
One thing is clear, we know YAMANA has the goods........
UBS YAMANA, ELDORADO GOLD GET UPGRADES
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070525.wmarkets25/BNStory/Business/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20070525.wmarkets25
UBS Securities has upgraded Yamana Gold Inc. and Eldorado Gold Corp., reflecting stock price weakness in the past three months that exceeded their North American peer group.
Gold equities in general have lost their lustre of late, writes analyst Tony Lesiak, due to the availability of better performance elsewhere in the mining sector. "It will be interesting to see how bullion performs in the event of another global valuation shock."
Shares of Eldorado, for example, are down 22 per cent in the past 90 days, underperforming a 3 per cent slide in the price of bullion and a 17 per cent decline by the peer group. Yamana's share price has declined more than 20 per cent during that period.
Mr. Lesiak moved both Eldorado and Yamana to "buy" from "neutral, " raising Yamana's $16.50 target price by 50 cents, but keeping Eldorada's at $8.
Eldorado closed at $5.90 on the TSX Thursday and Yamana finished at $13.84.
He said the new $17 target at Yamana reflected an additional high grade potential at its Gualcamayo mine. At Eldorado, he predicts second-quarter results should show a marked sequential improvement.
I will take .20-.60cent pops any and every day, love this stock, she becomes predictible at times............which of course gives OPPORTUNITY!
Wow...........love this stock!
Daytraded her big with a HUGE double down at the open along with core position................ ;D
You dont have to marry the stock, just believe that they have the GOOD's and pulling the trigger becomes much easier...............LOL
down 7%!
good time for a swing trade or good long entry point.
What do you think?
Wait for $10
I think there is a bigger problem. If this is your secret.
Holygrale Re: AUY an ambitious GOLD stock
« Reply #160 on: May 25, 2007, 01:43:21 AM »
We need a relief rally from POG..........hoping $650 holds.........
There is a suspicion the downside floor may be $520. Got it from the iTunes Gold Report.
fyi TerryG:
News Flash: Yamana Announces Agreement with Northern Orion
Friday , June 29, 2007 12:32ET
Jun 29, 2007 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- Market Gainer is quickly emerging as the one stop shop for international small-cap investors looking to stay a step ahead of the markets. Activity on the NYSE market has brought this company to the attention of our research team. YAMANA GOLD INC. (Toronto:YRI.TO)(NYSE:AUY), is responding to the attention of investors. Our goal is to create a community of international investors who consistently and effectively capitalize on the enormous gains the small-cap Canadian and American exchanges offer.
June 27 - YAMANA GOLD INC. (Toronto:YRI.TO)(NYSE:AUY)(LSE:YAU.L) and Northern Orion Resources Inc. (Toronto:NNO.TO)(AMEX:NTO) today announced that they have entered into a business combination agreement and a concurrent proposal has been made to Meridian Gold Inc. with respect to the combination of the three companies.
The contemplated terms for the three-way transaction are as follows:
Meridian shareholders would receive 2.235 of a Yamana share plus C$3.15 in cash which, based on Yamana's closing share price of C$13.02 on June 27, 2007, equates to total consideration of C$32.25 per share. The cash and share consideration represents a spot premium of approximately 23% over Meridian's closing share price on June 27, 2007, and a premium of approximately 24.4% based on the 20-day average closing price.
Northern Orion shareholders would receive 0.543 of a Yamana share which, based on Yamana's closing share price on June 27, 2007, equates to a value of C$7.07 per share. Holders of Northern Orion warrants and other convertible securities will be entitled to receive, or will receive a security in exchange that will entitle them to receive, on exercise 0.543 of a Yamana share in lieu of a Northern Orion share and otherwise on the same terms as the original security. The share consideration represents a spot premium of approximately 21.3% over Northern Orion's closing share price on June 27, 2007, and a premium of approximately 28.3% based on the 20-day average closing price.
The strategic combination would result in the creation of a pre-eminent mid-tier gold producer with the following attributes:
A Leader in Production Growth - estimated annual gold production increasing to more than 1.4 million ounces by 2009 from a combined base in 2006 of approximately 660,000 ounces
Ultra-Low Cash Cost Producer - sustainable negative cash operating costs with a projected 2007-2010 average of less than negative US$100 per ounce, net of by-product copper credits Average Operating Cash Flow of More Than US$600 Million per Year - projected cash balance growing to approximately US$2.4 billion by late 2010 (fully diluted basis)
Strong Balance Sheet - initial net cash balance of approximately US$575 million (fully diluted basis)
Highly Liquid Gold Vehicle - combined historical average daily trading volume of more than C$160 million through three leading global stock exchanges
Unparalleled Latin American Operating Base - six principal mining and development projects in Brazil, Chile and Argentina estimated to account for over 73% of the combined company's pro-forma net asset value Reserves Plus Measured and Indicated Resources Totaling 27.7 Million Ounces of Gold - additional inferred resources of over 13 million ounces of gold - estimated average mine life currently in excess of 12 years
To complete the transaction, Yamana would issue approximately 309.4 million new common shares (225.7 million and 83.7 million common shares to Meridian and Northern Orion shareholders, respectively) plus cash consideration of US$300 million to Meridian shareholders. On an issued basis, the pro rata shareholdings are anticipated to be: 53.4% existing Yamana shareholders, 34% existing Meridian shareholders and 12.6% existing Northern Orion shareholders.
Yamana and Northern Orion have entered into an agreement pursuant to which Yamana will acquire all of the issued and outstanding securities of Northern Orion, subject to the requirement that Yamana acquire at least 66 2/3% of the issued and outstanding common shares of Meridian, calculated on a fully-diluted basis. It is anticipated that the Northern Orion transaction will be structured as a statutory plan of arrangement. The acquisition of Northern Orion by Yamana has the unanimous support of the Boards of Directors of both Northern Orion and Yamana. GMP Securities L.P. has provided its opinion to the Board of Directors of Northern Orion that the consideration to be offered to Northern Orion shareholders pursuant to the agreement with Yamana is fair, from a financial point of view to the shareholders of Northern Orion other than Yamana. Under certain circumstances, a termination fee of C$35 million, and under certain additional circumstances C$50 million, would be payable by Northern Orion to Yamana. Northern Orion has agreed to carry on business in the usual course and not to enter into any agreements outside of the ordinary course in respect of its assets other than certain specified transactions. The business combination with Northern Orion is subject to customary conditions, including definitive documentation, receipt of all requisite third party and regulatory approvals and consents, court approval and approval by shareholders of Northern Orion. A copy of the agreement between Yamana and Northern Orion will be filed under the profiles of the companies on www.sedar.com and on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov.
In the event a consensual transaction with Meridian cannot be reached, Yamana has agreed with Northern Orion to commence an offer to acquire 100% of the outstanding common shares of Meridian on the terms of the proposal made to Meridian within 30 days, subject to certain conditions. As part of the transaction, Northern Orion has committed to fund US$200 million of the US$300 million cash component of the Meridian offer, subject to definitive documentation. The loan is not conditional upon the completion of the transaction with Northern Orion, will be secured by shares of Meridian acquired by Yamana, will bear interest at LIBOR plus 2% and will be repayable on the earlier of 12 months following the initial drawdown and 30 days following acquisition by Yamana of 100% of the fully diluted issued and outstanding shares of Meridian. The first drawdown is conditional upon at least 66 2/3% of the fully diluted issued and outstanding shares of Meridian having been tendered, and not withdrawn to Yamana's offer. The US$100 million balance of the cash portion of the consideration to be offered to Meridian shareholders will be funded from Yamana's existing US$200 million revolving credit facility which the lenders have agreed to increase to US$300 million, subject to definitive documentation.
Yamana's lead financial advisors are Genuity Capital Markets and Canaccord Capital Corporation and its legal advisor is Cassels Brock & Blackwell LLP. Ongoing advisory services are also being provided to Yamana by Wellington West Capital Markets. Endeavour Financial International Corporation and GMP Securities L.P. are financial advisors to the Board of Directors of Northern Orion. Northern Orion's legal advisors are DuMoulin Black LLP and Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP.
Commenting on the transaction, Peter Marrone, chairman and chief executive officer of Yamana said, "The strong merits of the proposed transaction compelled us to agree to terms with Northern Orion and approach Meridian. The combination of Yamana, Northern Orion and Meridian makes sense from a strategic and geographic perspective and we believe that the proposed structure is a creative way to unlock value for all shareholders involved. The three-way transaction would be accretive to Yamana's net asset value and long-term earnings and cash flow, while delivering a meaningful premium to Meridian and Northern Orion shareholders. Following the transaction, the combined company could look forward to improved market multiples reflective of the new company's scale of operations."
"It is Yamana's desire that this proposal to Meridian be considered in the friendly manner in which it is being presented - a win-win-win for three successful companies and their respective shareholders," said Mr. Marrone. "We would encourage constructive discussions in this regard."
David Cohen, president and chief executive officer of Northern Orion added, "The operating base of the combined entity would be unparalleled in Latin America. We believe that bringing our collective expertise together in the areas in which we operate should result in further opportunities to deliver value for shareholders. We will have a solid platform for further growth in our core areas of Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Central America. From this platform, and with the significant cash flow that will be generated, the combined company will be well positioned to create further shareholder value through additional growth throughout the Americas."
The combined company offers a solid foundation of nine operating mines, and an unparalleled pipeline of six development projects and a leading presence in Latin America. Yamana estimates that six core assets of the combined company will account for more than 73% of the combined company's pro-forma net asset value. A brief summary of these core assets is as follows:
Chapada (Brazil): open-pit copper and gold mine with conventional milling facilities that produce a copper/gold concentrate. Commercial production for the mine was achieved in February 2007, and production is projected at approximately 180,000 to 205,000 ounces of gold and 130 to 145 million pounds of copper this year. Operating costs of production on a co-product basis in Q1 2007 were US$187 per ounce of gold and US$0.66 per pound of copper, and on a by-product basis was negative ($1,077) per ounce of gold. Chapada's mine life is projected at approximately 19 years.
El Penon (Chile): high grade underground mine with average grades of approximately 8 grams per tonne of gold and 231 grams per tonne of silver. El Penon has been a flagship operation since 1999 and 2006 production was 230,100 ounces at a cash operating cost of negative US$68 per ounce net of silver by-product credits. El Penon currently has measured and indicated resources totaling 2,902,000 ounces of gold and 106 million ounces of silver.
Alumbrera/Agua Rica (Argentina): 12.5% equity interest in the Alumbrera copper/gold /molybdenum mine, plus 100% interest in the feasibility-stage Agua Rica project. Alumbrera is operated by Xstrata is projected to produce about 190,000 tonnes of copper, 500,000 ounces of gold and 2,200 tonnes of molybdenum annually (100% basis). Reserves currently support a mine life through to 2016. Agua Rica has the potential to be developed either as a stand-alone project with annual production projected at approximately 136,000 tonnes of copper, 130,000 ounces of gold and 7 million tonnes of molybdenum, or on an integrated basis with the Alumbrera complex which could potentially extend Alumbrera's mine life through to 2032.
Jacobina (Brazil): underground gold operation producing over 62,000 ounces in 2006, and projected to reach over 200,000 ounces by 2008 through developing and bringing on stream several underground mines, and expanding the processing plant. Jacobina's mine life is currently projected to be approximately 10-12 years. The Jacobina property encompasses upwards of 155 kilometres of exploration concessions along historical gold occurrances in the Bahia Gold Belt.
Gualcamayo (Argentina): advanced stage development project with a first phase open pit heap leach feasibility study expected by mid 2007. Production is estimated at 200,000 sustainable ounces annually by Q3 2008. Drilling results to date show potential to expand the global resource base at Gualcamayo at higher grades and to expand the limits of the deposit.
Sao Francisco (Brazil): open-pit, gravity heap-leach gold project. Commercial production was achieved in August 2006, and over 80,000 ounces of gold were produced to the end of 2006. As the operation ramps up, annual production is estimated to be in the range of 125,000 to 135,000 ounces of gold starting in 2007. Sao Francisco's mine life is projected to be in excess of 10 years.
Sold my AUY last week and watched it drop past 12, I guess I should have looked further before jumping to conclusions.
Thanks.
Buying AUY soon. Chart is turning over, and the fundamentals are soon going to look phenomenal. AUY deserves to trade at a forward PE of 20-30 like its competitors, but it trades at a forward PE of slightly less than 10.
In my opinion, there is a lot of upside here. Especially if Gold breaks out of this symmetrical triangle it's been in for the past year or so.
This stock is so badly beaten up with the buyout of another gold company. Any opinions on buying options for 09?
I think it'd be brilliat, stockhunter.
I'd be buying some AUY this morning but I have no cash. The way Cramer was talking this morning on CNBC, the fed sure saved my ass. Chose CHL over AUY, bought before the close yesterday. AUY would be slightly better so far I guess.
I think if you bought some 08 or 09 leaps, you could make a 10-20 bagger easy stockhunter. This is a $20 stock barring any collapse in the overall markets / gold.
Wow.........I never thought wed see $8 again, but last week was unreal........
This is a buy, merger talk has dragged it down along with the markets of course, wish I had some extra cash to buy back in this week...........
Quote from: bjc on August 17, 2007, 09:46:52 AM
I think it'd be brilliat, stockhunter.
I'd be buying some AUY this morning but I have no cash. The way Cramer was talking this morning on CNBC, the fed sure saved my ass. Chose CHL over AUY, bought before the close yesterday. AUY would be slightly better so far I guess.
I think if you bought some 08 or 09 leaps, you could make a 10-20 bagger easy stockhunter. This is a $20 stock barring any collapse in the overall markets / gold.
I'm still relatively new to options trading, just buy (not sell) calls & puts, 2-4 months out.... so I have never traded a LEAP. When you say "10-20 bagger" ... how does that work? How many months out do you buy? Are LEAPS different from regular options or is any option with expiry longer than 6 months considered a leap? Do you determine the strike price based on where you think the stock will end up, or is it better to get ITM or ATM?
I'd appreciate any input about this .. thanks in advance.
I dont have any experience with options. It's all paper trading.
A LEAP, as far as I know, is just a longer term option. It's the same thing, just long term. When I say a 10-20 bagger, I mean 1000-2000%. I think AUY represents amazing value here. I'll wish I bought.
Bought AUY today at 10.47. 20 ema cross. Chart looks good, fundamentals are unquestionably good.
Analysts expect $1.20 in EPS in the next 4 quarters. Conservative PE of 15 gives you $16 a share. Most gold stocks trade at a PE in 25-30 range. This is a no brainer unless there's some major flaw in the fundamentals I'm missing.
i've picked up quite a few 2010 options. I see gold peeking around 2011/2.
One of the main things holding this stock down is the merger that's going on. It's still not clear if it'll go through or not (don't always believe what the press tells you). If it fails, we'll get a nice pop, otherwise who knows.
And, BJC: looking at yahoo the P/E for auy is 49.12. Gold corp is 56.51
Stockhunter, when evaluating a stock, we look toward the future, not the past.
Look at the revenue trends and the earnings trends.
EPS Rev
Q3 06 - $0.02 50 mil
Q4 06 - $0.00 60 mil
Q1 07 - $0.13 145 mil
Q2 07 - $0.22 184 mil
Q3 07 (est.) $0.25
Q4 07 (est.) $0.27
Q1 08 (est.) $0.33
Q2 08 (est.) $0.35
Stocks are usually valued based on forward EPS. AUY is expected to make well over a dollar in the next 4 quarters. If you go with a conservative PE ratio of 20, this gives you $20 a share.
When AUY announces their next earnings, we will drop a quarter of $.02 and replace it with a quarter of about $0.25 if analysts are in the ballpark. The PE will then be 10.6 / .6 = about 20. This will be the trailing PE, but wall street will be looking ahead still. I expect AUY to be at least a $15 stock by then though..
and by the way, the trailing PE is actually 29 right now. 10.68 / $0.37.
This is all assuming E*Trade's earnings information is correct. I've found it to be far more trustworthy than Yahoo!
thanks for correcting me bjc. I rarely use my e*trade account research centre, but will do it more often.
Lastly, there's a lot of money to be made here with this stock. Pick it up now and forget about it for a few years and you'll be laughing.
I agree, I think your options will be home run.
I love the E*Trade research, it's all I use these days. I like the visual you get with the earnings section. The fundamental picture with AUY is truly beautiful. If gold stocks come back into favor, this baby could really take off. If gold stocks stay neutral / out of favor, I still think we have some ground to make up to catch up with the multiples of the rest of the industry.
i'm working my way up to 225 lots. I highly recommed you pop over to yahoo forums AUY forum. It's very active
Quote from: bjc on August 29, 2007, 02:32:46 PM
Bought AUY today at 10.47. 20 ema cross. Chart looks good, fundamentals are unquestionably good.
Analysts expect $1.20 in EPS in the next 4 quarters. Conservative PE of 15 gives you $16 a share. Most gold stocks trade at a PE in 25-30 range. This is a no brainer unless there's some major flaw in the fundamentals I'm missing.
Got in at 10.60.
Nice, BigSully. I believe we made an excellent medium-term investment / trade. Could also be short-term, as any type of rally with some force could bring a lot of people to realize how good the situation is here.
This stock is just way too cheap. Wall Street isn't naive enough to look at a trailing PE, I almost think there has to be something we're missing...
Yeah, I think it's good. Sure there could be something missing, but I tend to believe the market is just pricing it irrationally, for now. Anyway, if it does go back down ST, no sweat. I've left plenty of room to buy some more. I meant to load up on it anyway below 10, but procrastinated. It's definitely my favorite gold pick.
Another nice day for AUY.
Looks like GOLD is on the verge of a breakout, GOLD the commodity. On the verge of breaking out of a long term symmetrial triangle (some kind of triangle anyway).
My confidence in AUY has nothing to do with any run in gold, though, it is purely based on an irrational valuation.
I smell a turnaround. :)
This stock never had any reason to be in the gutter. It was almost 50% off its highs at times for absolutely no reason.
My target is $24 based on 20x analysts expectations in the next 4 quarters of $1.20.
i really recommend you look at options for AUY. Most have gone up a lot, but still some money to be made. I've done really well on it
Sure, you have to be up at least 100% in some of those. Depending on how far out of the money you bought, you could be up even much more than that I guess.
I've done some paper trading with options. I did it with some COST leaps about a month or more ago, that hasn't gone well I'm down 47% in those.
I did another one with some CHL options, the day I bought the stock (the luckiest timing I've ever personally experienced). This was the day of the huge turnaround, I bought at 51.30 I believe. After the market close, I paper-bought some out of the money leaps at whatever the ask was at the close, and they've skyrocketed. Depending on if I bought in the money ones or how far out of the money (I forget which I did, I should've taken better notes for learning purposes). But anyway, those are up 212%, 271%, and 334% (In this period I've made 29% in the stock). It's interesting to see how far out of the money you go and see how your return is affected.
Also, I'm not qualified for Level 2 of options trading yet. I need to get on the stick and get those papers in. I would've been all over some AUY leaps..
On a sidenote, Gold the commodity is in breakout mode. I'm not sure if I'd say it's confirmed, but acting very well. This is just icing on the cake.
Gold is a surge breakout above $700, the commodity ETF is a 52 week high. The gold stocks have resumed an uptrend that started seven years ago. This is reflected in "It's a relative strength ratio of the Gold & Silver (XAU) Index divided by the S&P 500."
Gold stocks have fallen onto a lower trendline in the uptrend after this market correction. Just whether this trendline will hold. My source is John Murphy at stockcharts.com. Subscription so I cannot post more.
I think the market is waiting on this merger to complete/ not happen / whatever. I'm under the impression if the deal does go through, AUY will be a monster. Price might be temporarily be hurt by a kneejerk market reaction, but the result will be a monster gold / copper producer. I believe MDG is solely a gold producer, and I believe the CEO Marone or whatever his name is wants to be more of a gold miner than gold / copper as the company currently is.
If the deal doesn't go through, I think that'd be better for the short term. I'm here for big bucks in AUY though, I want at least 50% to a double.
Currently the stock is dealing with both the uncertainty of the market with the FED tomorrow and the uncertainty of the deal. Things will get resolved, and you might be able to get a better price somewhere, but I'm in locked and loaded ready for AUY to rock.
Also, POG is still over 700 spot price. Very bullish for AUY obviously.
AUY has been doing somewhat nicely. Sully..we're up a bit less than 20%, but it doesn't really seem like it's moved so much.
If this deal would just happen or fail it'd be nice to get it out of the way. I think that's what the market is waiting on, and both would be reacted to positively. Short term, I think the deal failing would be the best proposition.
I'm positioned with AUY as my largest holding. And I'm very happy about that.
I try to get a pulse for AUY on the Yahoo! message boards, but some of those guys on there are gold bugs, and I can hardly follow what they're saying.
Quote from: bjc on September 19, 2007, 09:38:53 PM
AUY has been doing somewhat nicely. Sully..we're up a bit less than 20%, but it doesn't really seem like it's moved so much.
If this deal would just happen or fail it'd be nice to get it out of the way. I think that's what the market is waiting on, and both would be reacted to positively. Short term, I think the deal failing would be the best proposition.
I'm positioned with AUY as my largest holding. And I'm very happy about that.
I try to get a pulse for AUY on the Yahoo! message boards, but some of those guys on there are gold bugs, and I can hardly follow what they're saying.
I believe the deal will probably go through now and will make a great company. I sold yesterday because I was in fear of how much more AUY would offer, had to pay slightly more to get back in today. Also holding SLW.
Aggressive Company. Definitely no longer a Junior. Gold see's clear sky's.
uc.
Yamana Raises Bid, Wins Meridian
Monday September 24, 8:50 am ET
Yamana Boosts Meridian Offer to $35.18 Per Share, Winning Board Approval for Hostile Takeover
NEW YORK (AP) -- Canadian miner Meridian Gold Inc. agreed to be acquired by Yamana Gold Inc. after the gold miner further raised its hostile takeover bid to about $3.56 billion, the companies said Monday.
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Under the revised deal, Yamana agreed to pay Meridian shareholders 7 Canadian dollars ($7) in cash plus 2.235 Yamana common shares for each Meridian share they own. The purchase price works out to about $35.18 per share based on Friday's closing prices.
Reno, Nev.-based Meridian said in a joint statement with Yamana that its board unanimously recommends shareholders accept the offer. Meridian's financial advisers, Goldman, Sachs & Co. and BMO Capital Markets, agreed that the offer is fair financially, according to the statement.
"Our agreement provides Meridian shareholders with an attractive premium for their shares and a significant stake in a dynamic and growing company," Meridian President and Chief Executive Ed Dowling said in a statement.
Yamana, based in Toronto, launched its bid for Meridian in late June with an offer of a similar amount of stock plus 3.15 Canadian dollars per share. At the time, the offer was worth about $30.33 per share.
As part of the deal, Yamana planned to wrap in the acquisition of fellow Canadian gold miner Northern Orion Resources Inc. Yamana said Monday it plans to close that deal "as soon as practical after the successful tender of the Meridian shares."
"This agreement brings together three successful companies and is in the mutual interests of both Yamana and Meridian shareholders," Yamana Chairman and CEO Peter Marrone said in a statement.
The total purchase price is based on the 101.2 million Meridian shares outstanding in July, according to a regulatory filing by Yamana pertaining to the deal.
It seems I've been confused on my valuation of gold companies.
In many of the gold names (ABX, AU, GG, etc.), I see PEs in the 30 range.
But then you look at FCX, a gold, copper and silver producer, more comparable to AUY, trades at a PE around 10!
After thinking about it much over the weekend, I've decided to sell half my AUY and move it into FCX. I might sell all of my AUY. It was a lucky 18% or so, I'll take the money and run. I wish I'd been in MDG or NTO. Oh well, this is a lesson to be more informed on deals a company you're investing in is doing..
A short squeeze looks possible here. Let's see where it goes.
uc.
uc-
I'm not sure about the short term fluctuations, AUY could have a nice run to the 15 area or even 20. I'm more concerned about being in what I feel is the higher quality company at a lower valuation! That's why I sold all my AUY today. Lucky gain, although I should've been elsewhere. Check out FCX..
EPS #s last 4 Qs.
$1.73
1.99
2.75
3.21
They made an acuisition that is resulting in much higher EPS #s starting in the most recent Q.
So you push $3 bucks a share out across 4 Qs (which isn't even taking into account a surge in metals prices) and you get a forward PE in the 8 range. I just can't make any sense out of this. I look for FCX to perhaps take a breather, but then FAST AND FURIOUS get to $150 or $175. They could easily announce $4 a share EPS. Forward PE of 10 would then give you $160 a share.
I apologize for cluttering up the AUY board. I'll start another topic on FCX soon.
I'm all about FCX (and SLT I guess) when it comes to metals, but AUY looks tremendous for entry! I can see a run to new highs pronto.
Sully, are you going to get back in? Did you look at FCX at all? It is a $200 stock hidden selling for $111.
Bjc, I'm still waiting to get back in AUY, at least until the Fed minutes at 2:00 P.M. to see how market reacts. Probably won't get the answers they are looking for though. Definitely want AUY back soon. FCX looks good.
Bjc, AUY is moving along very nicely now. Did youy buy? Also SLW breaking out to all new highs today.
Sully- just realized I forgot to ever respond to you or never saw that post.
Unfortunately, I didn't buy back. I should've that day i posted when it was busting through 12!
AUY looks to be back in buy range. Will it bounce off the golden cross?
It seems gold may have a little correction, which would probably drive AUY's share price lower. It is starting to present tremendous value again. It was still a good value at 16...gold is expensive.
Wow..........opportunity is a coming.........
Been following this one for over a year now, in and out for awhile, but at the beginning of the summer I moved over to an exploration stock called Southern Arc Minerals (SOACF) great story they have there...........worth a look. If your interested, go to http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/forum.asp?symbol=SA&table=list
I love this stock, she knows how to move........
I will personally look for 1 of two things.......I will buy BIG if POG hits $750-760 or if she hits $11.50........
Whichever comes first.......
Go ahead call the chart pattern.......
52wk Range: 8.40 - 15.88
Volume: 9,177,485
Avg Vol (3m): 8,061,820
Market Cap: 4.77B
P/E (ttm): 41.39
EPS (ttm): 0.32
Div & Yield: 0.04 (0.30%)
Technicals
MACD - Bearish
Percentage Gainer
Last Price Quote is:
-0.90%below 13-day MA
1.71%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 95
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $4,653.04
P/E Ratio: 42.14
PEG Ratio: 3.56
Next Earnings: 03/19/2008
Last Analyst Rating: Buy
Bought back in with Guns a blazing this morning........... ;D
Shes stabilizing nicely around $13ish and showing like she wants to shoot for $14........
Will daytrade 1/2 my position and nickel and dime this till the cows come home.......LOL
Love this stock, daytraders dream...............LOL
Sold my10k shares from 13.08 at 13.37-38 this morning, I bought back at 13.18 hoping she would close strong but she didn't .......sold again at the close at $13.13.
Will look for weakness on friday..........
This is trading in a range, which means opportunity........
I would've expected AUY (and other gold stocks) to rally along with gold. It seems people forget gold is above $800. Maybe this is already priced in to all the gold stocks.
Anyway, I may look for entry on a breakout, I think AUY could rally to new highs.
I think AUY is ready for new highs.
Gold looks ready for new highs. I'm gonna get some AUY.
And cheers to a great 07..and hopefully an even better 08. Lets stay on top of some of the best stocks...
edit meant to add gold chart. gold in breakout mode.
upgrade by CIBC to sector outperform
Anybody watching AUY? If it breaks over 15.87 then it has a large cup and handle and is headed towards $20.....
What do you think?
IBD says to add .10 to the pivot (15.88 +.10) before considering buying, to make sure it has legs. I already own though and just have a stop on it.
also watch BVN
near breakout?
GDX says sideways with continuing uptrend.
looks like a breakout.
Quote from: TerryG on February 26, 2008, 08:45:00 PM
GDX says sideways with continuing uptrend.
US dollar hit a new low today. Got your gold?
Got my gold. They say it is oil and gold. And only american dollars are slipping. Rest of the world oil is not going up, just america's.