AUY

[Melf Elf]

Targets:

11.90 is IN PLAY from the Bull Flag breakout (Top of the pattern) EDIT: 11.90, not 11.84

12.06 still is IN PLAY from the November 1 Inverse H&S Breakout

12.70 is IN PLAY from the measured move off the Bull Flag breakout.

Sold 10% of my AUY at 11.90 when the target MADE.  Gain: 6.5%

I thought that the 12.06 target would get MADE as well, since it's been IN PLAY since the Inverse H&S breakout on November 1.  I planned to sell some more at that second target, but yesterday's early morning high only was 12.03 , and that was it for the day.

I'm not particularly fond of the two Doji Star Hangmen on the chart, but at least all of the gaps from the last three sessions are filled.

Holding 90% long.

[Holygrale]

This one is holding its own............

[Melf Elf]

This one is holding its own............

Holygrale,

Yes, it came on strong into the close yesterday afternoon, didn't it?

The DOUBLE Inverse H&S that formed this autumn, and now the Bull Flag, look real nice, but something that you might find interesting: we've got TWO more bullish patterns on the chart!

 

There is a THIRD Bullish Inverse H&S (pattern in green) that broke out on August 1, 2006, putting a target of 13.01 IN PLAY.  That didn't go anywhere, but it's "nested" below a BIG "W" Bottom, below 11.38 (solid black line), which has broken out. 

Math for the Inverse H&S (pattern in green):

10.40 - Neckline
7.79 - Low of the Head

10.40 - 7.79 = 2.61 Points + 10.40 = Target: 13.01

After the Inverse H&S breakout, AUY went all the way back down, and formed a "W-Bottom" (I drew the pattern above the month of August), for a much larger base from which to breakout.  Nice.

The "Buy Pivot" of the middle of the "W" is 11.38, the high of August 9.  That broke out solidly (above the black line) on November 9, putting a target of 14.94 IN PLAY.  Interestingly, a few days later, RBC raised their target from 13.00 to 15.00, right at the target.

Math:

11.38 - Middle, or "pivot" of the "W"
7.82 - Low (I always take the more conservative of the 7.79 and 7.82 lows)

11.38 - 7.82 = 3.56 Points + 11.38 = Target: 14.94

So, we've got:

Target #1 - 11.32 - October 24 "Nested" H&S Breakout -  MADE Nov 6
Target #2 - 11.90 - November 22 Bull Flag Breakout (Top of Flag) - MADE Nov 27
Target #3 - 12.06 - November 1 Larger H&S Breakout
Target #4 - 12.70 - November 22 Bull Flag "Measured Move"
Target #5 - 13.01 - July 31 H&S Breakout "Lost Target"...back IN PLAY
Target #6 - 14.94 - November 8 "W"-Bottom Breakout

Technically, AUY is "packing some punch" with these bullish patterns, and has only to get through 3 days of resistance from May (very beginning of this chart) to be at a new high, which would be a print of 12.43.

Never any guarantees, of course, but this looks very strong.  Thanks again for your alert on it.

[Melf Elf]

Sold 10% of my AUY at 11.90 when the target MADE.  Gain: 6.5%

Sold another 10% of my AUY when the 12.06 target MADE.  Gain: 8%

Thank you, Holygrale! 

Holding 80% of the position long.

So, we've got:

Target #1 - 11.32 - October 24 "Nested" H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 6
Target #2 - 11.90 - November 22 Bull Flag Breakout (Top of Flag) - MADE Nov 27
Target #3 - 12.06 - November 1 Larger H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 29
Target #4 - 12.70 - November 22 Bull Flag "Measured Move"
Target #5 - 13.01 - July 31 H&S Breakout "Lost Target"...back IN PLAY
Target #6 - 14.94 - November 8 "W"-Bottom Breakout

Next target IN PLAY is 12.70, the measured move off the November 22 Bull Flag breakout.

AUY currently is BID 12.09...ASK 12.10

[Holygrale]

Melf, nicely done on your charts and comments............

I will hold core position til end of the year, I think Gold is where I will be..........so many sweet looking charts out there(ABP,OMNI, EGY) so little time ad money.......

I do think $13 will hit quicker than we think..................

[Melf Elf]

Melf, nicely done on your charts and comments............

I will hold core position til end of the year, I think Gold is where I will be..........so many sweet looking charts out there(ABP,OMNI, EGY) so little time ad money.......

Holygrale,

Thanks.  This chart sure backs up your opinion, with all of these Bullish patterns.

I do think $13 will hit quicker than we think..................

That would be nice, since Targets #4 and #5 would get MADE in the process. 

A quick move to $13 certainly is warranted, given the fact that the chart work is done, and that we've only got a little bit of resistance between here and the 12.43 high last May.

We've got the TWO Bullish Inverse H&S patterns (green and blue) with the intervening W-Bottom pivot at 11.38.  We broke out above all of that, pulled back for a Bull Flag, and now we've broken out again.

Very pretty chart.  We'll see...

[Melf Elf]

Sold 10% of my AUY at 11.90 when the target MADE.  Gain: 6.5%
Sold another 10% of my AUY when the 12.06 target MADE.  Gain: 8%

Holding 80% of the position long.

Sold another 10% of my AUY at 12.70   The Bull Flag target MADE.  Gain: 13.7%

Thanks again, Holygrale!

Holding 70% of the positon long.

So, we've got:

Target #1 - 11.32 - October 24 "Nested" H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 6
Target #2 - 11.90 - November 22 Bull Flag Breakout (Top of Flag) - MADE Nov 27
Target #3 - 12.06 - November 1 Larger H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 29
Target #4 - 12.70 - November 22 Bull Flag "Measured Move" - MADE NOV 30
Target #5 - 13.01 - July 31 H&S Breakout "Lost Target"...back IN PLAY
Target #6 - 14.94 - November 8 "W"-Bottom Breakout

Next target IN PLAY is 13.01, the "Lost Target" from the July H&S breakout.

[Terliso]

Good pick guys!... Gold stocks are on fire!

ON FIRE!!!!!!    

Good Trade Melf, applause

[Melf Elf]

Sold 10% of my AUY at 11.90 when the target MADE.  Gain: 6.5%
Sold another 10% of my AUY when the 12.06 target MADE.  Gain: 8%
Sold another 10% of my AUY at 12.70   The Bull Flag target MADE.  Gain: 13.7%

Sold another 10% of AUY at 13.01 when Target #5 MADE.  Gain: 16.5%

Holding 60% long.

I do think $13 will hit quicker than we think..................

Thanks again, Holygrale,  Good call on the $13.  Applause.

So, we've got:

Target #1 - 11.32 - October 24 "Nested" H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 6
Target #2 - 11.90 - November 22 Bull Flag Breakout (Top of Flag) - MADE Nov 27
Target #3 - 12.06 - November 1 Larger H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 29
Target #4 - 12.70 - November 22 Bull Flag "Measured Move" - MADE Nov 30[
Target #5 - 13.01 - July 31 H&S Breakout "Lost Target" MADE Dec 1
Target #6 - 14.94 - November 8 "W"-Bottom Breakout

Next target is 14.94.

[ON FIRE!!!!!!

Good Trade Melf, applause

Thanks, Alister.  I owe this one to Holygrale, who presented it, and who gave me a heads up right before I bought it.  Pretty chart.

[Melf Elf]

Sold 10% of my AUY at 11.90 when the target MADE.  Gain: 6.5%
Sold another 10% of my AUY when the 12.06 target MADE.  Gain: 8%
Sold another 10% of my AUY at 12.70   The Bull Flag target MADE.  Gain: 13.7%
Sold another 10% of AUY at 13.01 when Target #5 MADE.  Gain: 16.5%

Sold another 20% of my AUY at 13.51.  Gain: 20.9%

Holding 40% long.

[Holygrale]

Melf I've been away on business...................

Can you say Yahhhhoooooooooooooooooo!

Still long from $8.50.........Holding through the New Year!

Melf, had 2k shares of GROW at $18.........I pulled the trigger way to early on that one! ouch

[Melf Elf]

Melf I've been away on business...................

Can you say Yahhhhoooooooooooooooooo!

Holygrale,

Yes, and I can say thank youuuuuuuuuuuuuu for finding this beauty. 

AUY is up ten days in a row, so we're due for a pullback at any time, but the rally certainly is justified coming out of all of those Bullish patterns, and nested Bullish patterns (the Double Inverse H&S in blue...everything nested in a W-Bottom, below 11.38). 

Nested Bullish patterns can be very nice on the upside when they break out, as this one is. 

Still long from $8.50.........Holding through the New Year!
Melf, had 2k shares of GROW at $18.........I pulled the trigger way to early on that one! ouch

That's okay, you're doing great on AUY! 

[Holygrale]

Huge Buying opportunity here under $13............

[Melf Elf]

AUY is up ten days in a row, so we're due for a pullback at any time, but the rally certainly is justified coming out of all of those Bullish patterns, and nested Bullish patterns (the Double Inverse H&S in blue...everything nested in a W-Bottom, below 11.38). 

Nested Bullish patterns can be very nice on the upside when they break out, as this one is. 

Holygrale,

The pullback began that morning, with the 13.75 open, a print high of 13.81, then a close on a Dark Cloud Cover.

From its October 4 low of 7.82, AUY rallied 76.6% in just two months to the 13.81 print high, so a correction here is healthy.  I'd like to see a nice Bull Flag, or a Symmetrical Triangle form.   Something like that.

Huge Buying opportunity here under $13............

I'm looking for gap fill of 12.07-12.15.  If we get it, I'll buy back the 20% that I sold at 13.51.

A .382 retracement of the rally off the October 4 low would be 11.522.  If we get that, I'll back back the 10% that I sold at 13.01, and the 10% that I sold at 12.70.

11.522 is just above the BIG breakout of the W-Bottom, at 11.38.   It's possible that we'll get a re-test, and a .382% retracement of a nice 76.6% rally like we had is very reasonable.

By the way, on Cramer's October 27 "Switch out of GG and buy AUY" call...

GG was at 25.01.  It rallied to 31.47 so far, for a 25.8% gain.

AUY was at 9.40.  It rallied to 13.81 so far, for a 46.9% gain.  Almost double the rally in GG.

Give the devil his due, huh?  Nice call.    

What I liked about his call was the fact that GG was heading into quite a bit of nearby resistance from the June-August broken Ascending Triangle, and the 50/200DMAs were inverted.

AUY on the other hand, after the W-Bottom breakout, had only 3 candles worth of resistance to get through, from May, 2006. 

Stocks tend to have a much easier time rallying when they haven't got to battle a lot of resistance.

[Melf Elf]

GG rallied 54.6% off its October low vs. the 76.6% rally in AUY.  Still a VERY nice rally for GG!

Technically, the difference between the two was that GG had to rally into that June-August broken Ascending Triangle (pattern in red), and the recent rally ended right at the top of that resistance.  And, there's still further resistance above that, from May-June.

AUY's recent rally ended at a new high.  NO resistance.

In general, it's better to buy the stronger of two stocks.