AUY

[Melf Elf]

From its October 4 low of 7.82, AUY rallied 76.6% in just two months to the 13.81 print high, so a correction here is healthy.  I'd like to see a nice Bull Flag, or a Symmetrical Triangle form.   Something like that.

AUY has been correcting for the past two weeks.

I'm looking for gap fill of 12.07-12.15. If we get it, I'll buy back the 20% that I sold at 13.51.

Yesterday's low was 12.16, jus-st above that gap.  The November 9 high of the Bull Flag (pattern in green) was 11.90.  I'll buy back the 20% that sold at 13.51 for 12.00, if I can get it.

[Melf Elf]

I'll buy back the 20% that sold at 13.51 for 12.00, if I can get it.

I didn't get a chance to buy that back at 12.00.

AUY rallied back over 13.00, without even filling any of the 12.07-12.15 gap.

It's back down,  to 12.28, so I might have a chance to buy it at 12.00, but I'm going to pass for two reasons:

1. The short-term 13/21RSIs met at Bearish Synchronicity on the rally back to 13.00, and issued a short-term sell signal on yesterday's print of 12.50.

2. The up trendline (red) off the October 4 low of 7.82 was broken yesterday on a closing basis.  That trendline had four hits to it (therefore, 2 validations), so that's another caution.

I have a nice gain of 14.4% in the 60% of my long position that I've sold, so I'm going to leave that alone, and just hold my remaining 40% long position (from 11.17).

[Holygrale]

Gold is picking up steam, I think the New Year will bring new buying.......we'll see.

In the meantime, AUY is setting itself up, this mornings gap has been filled.........

Melf, what are your thoughts on that 12.07 gap, you think she'll get filled?

[Melf Elf]

Melf, what are your thoughts on that 12.07 gap, you think she'll get filled?

Holygrale,

That gap has been acting as support, so it might not get filled.

The recent lows are 12.16 and 12.18, so we've got a possible W-Bottom right at the top of the gap, which is 12.15.

The pivot of the "W" is the 13.09, so if that gets taken out to the upside, 14.00 will be IN PLAY.

Math:

13.09 - high of the "W"

12.18 - low (the more conservative of the 12.16...12.18 lows)

13.09 - 12.18 = 0.91 points + 13.09 = Target: 14.00

[Melf Elf]

Holygrale,

I like the fact that Tuesday's low (Red #5) re-established support at the broken trendline coming off the October 4 low, which also filled the 12.54 gap, and that AUY moved higher yesterday.

The pivot of the "W" is the 13.09, so if that gets taken out to the upside, 14.00 will be IN PLAY.

Now we need to knock out 13.09.

[nullzero]

Big pullback today AUY is still trading in the low 12s. I picked up a good amount of shares today at 12.23, couldnt resist the bargain prices.

[Melf Elf]

It's back down,  to 12.28, so I might have a chance to buy it at 12.00, but I'm going to pass for two reasons:

1. The short-term 13/21RSIs met at Bearish Synchronicity on the rally back to 13.00, and issued a short-term sell signal on yesterday's print of 12.50.

2. The up trendline (red) off the October 4 low of 7.82 was broken yesterday on a closing basis.  That trendline had four hits to it (therefore, 2 validations), so that's another caution.

I have a nice gain of 14.4% in the 60% of my long position that I've sold, so I'm going to leave that alone, and just hold my remaining 40% long position (from 11.17).

I thought that we might fill the 12.07-12.15 gap on the short-term technical weakness, but I really didn't expect that we would come all-ll the way back and re-test the W-Bottom breakout (the May high of 11.38 ).

I'm glad that I left the trade alone, and didn't buy back the 60% that I sold. 

We've printed 11.32 this morning, six cents below the May W-Bottom pivot of 11.38.  If we're set to close below 11.38, or if we take out 11.32 at any time, I'll take a small gain on my remaining 40% long position.

AUY currently is BID 11.38...ASK 11.39, re-testing the  11.38 W-Bottom breakout again.

[Melf Elf]

We've printed 11.32 this morning, six cents below the May W-Bottom pivot of 11.38.  If we're set to close below 11.38, or if we take out 11.32 at any time, I'll take a small gain on my remaining 40% long position.

We got a bounce off the top of the W-Bottom (horizontal black line) and closed near the high of the day.  Not too bad, given the $20 smackdown in the POG.

"Former resistance 'should' act as support," and it did.  So far, so good.

I'll keep my stop below 11.32 of the remaining 40% of my long position (from 11.17).

[Holygrale]

Melf...........applaud, nice job on the calls you've made on this one.

I sold my entire position at $13.05 on Wednesday only to see it close at $12.33.............I didn't see that coming. My decision was based on Clive Maund on his site claiming a head and shoulder on the POG with a retracement back to support to about $570.00...................and of course your excellent guidance possibly "$12.07 gap" being filled, I figured I would jump ship and reload later.........I didn't expect this big of a retracement, but I am looking to get back in..........Full throttle of course. 

This one is a winner and will move well with POG when shes ready.........to the upside of course!

Melf, Keep up the good work, when I sold AUY I picked a few shares of ONT at 1.22 while I wait for POG to settle down...........worth a look,  CES next week should give them some more exposure.

[Melf Elf]

I sold my entire position at $13.05 on Wednesday

Holygrale,

Good job!  That's a very nice gain from your entry in the 8.00s.

I'm comfortable holding my remaining 40% position from 11.17, but on the fence about the near-term direction.  I studied GG at the weekend and can see a bullish outcome just as easily as a bearish one, even though GG has completed a short-term H&S Top.

I wouldn't have played AUY and had the gain that I do had it not been for your posts, so thanks again, and applause.

Melf, Keep up the good work, when I sold AUY I picked a few shares of ONT at 1.22 while I wait for POG to settle down...........worth a look,  CES next week should give them some more exposure.

ONT has gone a bit parabolic since the December Rising Channel breakout, and it's up better than 150% off the July low. 

The Rising Channel target of 1.35 MADE last Thursday.  I don't know anything about the fundamentals on it, and parabolic rallies can take on a life or their own, but it also could be "sell Las Vegas."  Personally, I always take some off the table when targets get MADE.

Good luck with it, and thanks again for your help on AUY.

[Melf Elf]

I'm comfortable holding my remaining 40% position from 11.17, but on the fence about the near-term direction. 

I sold my remaining 40% of AUY at 12.16 late this afternoon, at 12.16-12.18 resitance.  Gain: 8.9%

Gain on the trade: 12.2%

I studied GG at the weekend and can see a bullish outcome just as easily as a bearish one, even though GG has completed a short-term H&S Top.

GG looks to have put in a H&S Top, and it didn't participate today:  Down 1.66%, with AUY up 5.3%.

Given that AUY rallied today right to the bottom of six weeks worth of resistance, and that my 34/55RSIs probably are going to be a Bearish Synchronicity on the rally, I decided to sell into strength, and close out the rest of the trade.

Thanks again, Holygrale. 

[nullzero]

I didnt catch the bottom on this one , I am about break even now. I think AUY has a lot of potential to run their is a lot of things cooking in the background that can cause gold to run up on fear.

[Holygrale]

Melf, nice job on selling on strength, I will wait for POG to settle down a bit.  AUY has been getting some good Publicity/short covering() lately hence the run up today butttttttt will be a solid Producer in 07'...............

Looking to get back in, appreciate all your guidance (TA)...........   

[Holygrale]

This one has me puzzled...............

It showing great strength, and I have decided to buy back in............LOL     

In at 11.92 and will put a stop loss at 11.70..............1) I just think they will have great numbers and 2) if POG does take off I dont want to miss the ride and 3) they begin trading NYSE on Friday(not that it matters) but you never know NEW institutions looking to get in etc...............

You gotta love all the publicity its getting thats its the GOLD play.  We'll see.

[nullzero]

Strong day for AUY up over 4% and still climbing... AUY switched over to the NYSE today and gold is up over a percent. New 52wk highs coming? If the POG climbs and runs through 620 with strength AUY will be trading at new 52wk highs.