3SOF

Sorry for the late opening, I'm having lunch out with my partner Ramsburg (he's offering me a lobster for my birthday 8)), I'll be here only around 11 am ET, but be my guest and post anything you want.

Thanks for your participation :)

Dave take a look at MWY ;D

Happy Birthday!

Happy Birtday!

SLGLF.OB

Thanks.

Thanks guys,

I forgot to mention that I'm not planning to sell TRMM and OFI this morning.

.

Happy Birthday ....!!!
   David
Hope you have a great day

Happy Birthday, David.

Let's all have a great day!

I'm a newbie....would like your opinion on three biotechs...DNDN, NKTR, NVD

THANKS AHEAD
BUCKSHOT46

 ;D

Happy Birthday, looking forward to a great week!

Happy Birthday David!  Feliz aniversario!  Hope you ate your fill of that lobster, sounds good  :D

Given your previous analysis, EVCC might be a short candidate here soon, currently trading at 7.22, wicked parabolic.

With EVCC, what is the price for entry looking like?

NTMD looking good :)

Quote from: lancefur on January 29, 2007, 10:20:22 AM
With EVCC, what is the price for entry looking like?

I cant short because I dont have a margin account, but I would have short sold it right above $7 where it was when I was looking at it.  Its down now to $6.38 so I dont know, I really dont have that much experience shorting, I would defer to David or somebody with more experience shorting stocks.  I was just looking at the chart and how very parabolic it looked for a 2 man company (if I remember David's analysis on this one correctly).

happy birthday david,
you can have your cake and eat it too!\
maxi

Happy Birthday David!

How about ckys.pk  Don't know if you look at pink sheets.
Marie

feliz aniversário, david. Sorry that is about the extent of my portuguese.  ;D

OPGX making a move, no idea what is up yet ;)

Pulling back now- anyone?

Update: News- not all that great

Quote from: willbrich on January 29, 2007, 09:53:40 AM
Happy Birtday!

SLGLF.OB

Thanks.

Thanks willbrich :)

I've already studied SLGLF.OB, let me see if I find it ... yes, here it is:

«SGLF.OB 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=3616214565873423607&hl=en

I don't think the news is significant enough. SLGLF.OB has a story of deceiving investors and it still is a $55 M market cap company. Chart is bullish, though.»

TBV starting to get some volume!

ZANE,IVAN on fire

Quote from: buckshot46 on January 29, 2007, 10:09:07 AM
I'm a newbie....would like your opinion on three biotechs...DNDN, NKTR, NVD

THANKS AHEAD
BUCKSHOT46

I'm sorry buckshot46, but I need to be humble and recognize that I don't know enough to cover biotechnology stocks. There are 480 of them on the stock market and very few have revenues and profits to show. It is a sector that I try to avoid.

To make a fair evaluation of them I would need to study their pipeline, the market potential, compare their findings with competitors, it is a very hard work and one can be deceived. It is a sector I don't understand very well and I don't know how to value (for example, I can't measure the impact of a news item on the market cap).

Anyway, if you value just a technical input, I can provide it, but I'll avoid making fundamental considerations on those stocks, at least with the current knowledge I have on the sector.

Two biotechs that I like are VPHM and ASPV, but those are profitable biotech companies.

Thanks for the suggestion, though :)

short ESLR? its up big on no news...i think it will be given back tomorrow

Hey David - How about ADST?  They have some PR out today, revenues have been growing, although they're not quite profitable - balance sheet looks good, assets/liab around 3...up 10% or so today on decent volume...

Quote from: tokyopua on January 29, 2007, 10:16:43 AM
Happy Birthday David!  Feliz aniversario!  Hope you ate your fill of that lobster, sounds good  :D

Given your previous analysis, EVCC might be a short candidate here soon, currently trading at 7.22, wicked parabolic.

Yes, EVCC is quite incredible, $250 M market cap, $0 revenues, just $285 K in equity, I really don't know what's going on with the stock to be up so much with such an heavy volume, I would like to congratulate some of the people that have suggested the stock and kindly ask for them to educate me on why it is moving up so dramatically.

I don't know about shorting this sky rocket, there probably are easier stocks to go short outthere, shorting is already risky enough, not considering a stock that is up more than 20% with very heavy volume.

Happy Birthday, David..

I remember you talking about covering IMOS last week, but I could never find it, if you did.  I was just curious as to whether that was still in your plans. 

Quote from: prodigykid6 on January 29, 2007, 11:21:33 AM
short ESLR? its up big on no news...i think it will be given back tomorrow

It looks like the whole alternative energy sector is in play today, these are macro funds and investors entering the market, I wouldn't get in front of them, even though ESLR looks overvalued.

In fact, over the short term, ESLR chart will look quite bullish if the stock is able to close where it stands now.

Good luck :)

What you think of GNTX?

how about SILC?

Happy Birthday David. You don't look a day over 20. Keep up the good work. Any thoughts on MDZ

I sold 60% of my EVCC at the open today for 5.47. It was up 600% or so since i bought it, so im not kicking myself that hard. and i still have the other 40% up almost 800%. I cant explain this company mainly because i cant find much on it. like i said last week, my dear old mum who knows nothing about this had a dream hunch so i bought a little bit.

Would you mind asking your mum to have another dream and let me know what she picks. Thanks . I need a 8 bagger.

Hey David,what are your plans in TRMM ?

Thanks in advanced,


Chobi

ARSC.OB?

Quote from: dnickers on January 29, 2007, 11:22:03 AM
Hey David - How about ADST?  They have some PR out today, revenues have been growing, although they're not quite profitable - balance sheet looks good, assets/liab around 3...up 10% or so today on decent volume...

3 minute look for ADST:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=6475766271290816398&hl=en

Yes, but their price to sales ratio is already 9 and the industry average is 1.59, so it looks like overvalued. Technically it is bullish, but volume not so hot right now.

Thanks for the suggestion :)

David, speaking, as you were, of alternativve energy plays, how about BCON, Beacon Power  -- flywheel tech. 

Quote from: spiritgate on January 29, 2007, 10:50:04 AM
How about ckys.pk  Don't know if you look at pink sheets.
Marie

No, take a look at our FAQ section (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0), we don't cover Pink Sheets due to lack of information.

Thanks anyway :)

Quote from: rudynostalgia on January 29, 2007, 12:06:24 PM
David, speaking, as you were, of alternativve energy plays, how about BCON, Beacon Power  -- flywheel tech. 

Here's an analysis I made on BCON a couple of months ago:

«1. Introduction

I made some good trades on BCON in the past and everybody keeps it on their watch list, so I  should study it, both from a technical & fundamental view.

2. Profile

Beacon Power Corporation (BCON), a development stage company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, configuration, and sale of products and services to support electricity grid operation. (complete profile here (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=BCON))

3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28895;image)

BCON's time was the mid 2005 rally. Besides that the all history chart is quite discouraging.

3.2. Medium Term Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28896;image)

The stock is down 80% from its August 2005 levels. It's kind of dead now.

3.3. Short Term Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28897;image)

BCON would need to make a move above the $1.35 resistance level to be interesting from a technical perspective. The short term trend is bearish.

4. Fundamental Analysis
4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28898;image)

The share count rose 25% in the 9 months until September, or 12 million shares. This isn't good. The current market cap is 59,367,374*$1.1 = $65.3 M.

4.2. Liquidity

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28899;image)

Working capital is just $6 M now, BCON's balance sheet is weak.

4.3. Revenues

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28900;image)

There's a little sign of life lately, but revenues expected for 2006 are still just $1.2 M. Since the market cap is $65.3 M, the revenue multiple is 54 which is extremely high.

4.4. Profits

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28901;image)

Losing money every year since inception. It has a cumulative deficit of $147.5 M.

5. General Overview

Unfortunately BCON looks very overvalued even at these low prices. Insiders have been selling shares every chance they get and the company's working capital is running out. BCON has been diluting shareholders value by issuing and selling shares.

Losses are mounting and revenues are incipient.

I guess this will be a penny stock soon. I will avoid BCON.»

DKAM breakout

Update 1/2 position @ 3.0

Quote from: nullzero on January 29, 2007, 11:39:25 AM
What you think of GNTX?

GNTX 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-3694704676981062017&hl=en

Resistance at $17.46 and no fun in playing a $2.4 B market cap company for short term purposes.

But thanks :)

Happy Birthday David! ;D

I believe it was Ramsburgs and Michaels Birthdays this month too, wasnt it? Happy Belated Guys! :D

thanks

julia

Happy birthday david btw, I look for stocks under 1 billion market cap from now on.

I'm expecting it to hold the "around $3" support level, after opening at the "around $3.30" resistance level.

The stock should start rebounding from this intraday dip to remain short term bullish. Technically it can go down to $2.785, the midpoint of the big white marubozu on the chart, without damaging the short term bullish technical picture, but ... I'm not sure I'll be willing to let it slip so much with me in there.

I hope I don't have to confront the problem, but if I have to, I'll dump it with no fear or regard, my money is more important than anything I can read on the news or the fundamentals, and I'm not willing to risk more than 10% or so in any given trade.

SILC 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=8627946158099811024&hl=en

I bought SILC @ $13.41 for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php). Despite the stock being up 34% or so today I still find it cheap in comparison with its fundamentals.

Watch DYMTF today!!!

It's on fire!

Quote from: bjc on January 29, 2007, 11:33:42 AM
Happy Birthday, David..

I remember you talking about covering IMOS last week, but I could never find it, if you did.  I was just curious as to whether that was still in your plans. 

Hi bjc, this is the third time you request IMOS, and I'm glad you did it, because the stock looks really undervalued here:

IMOS 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-677779339822669417&hl=en

Even more undervalued than AMKR, another one in this sector that I like. I guess the problem with them is they're not filing the proper forms with the SEC, and that always puts a cap on valuation. But still, too cheap to be true, considering the revenue and EPS trends.

I'll have a deeper look at it at the Premium area and perhaps I'll buy it for the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php).

Thanks :)

Quote from: nuccio on January 29, 2007, 11:45:29 AM
Happy Birthday David. You don't look a day over 20. Keep up the good work. Any thoughts on MDZ

Hi nuccio, nice photo :)

Actually I'm 31 and already a father of 2 :)

Here's the 3 minute look I made for MDZ:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-3038924012721745531&hl=en

Its market cap is too large already at $2.4 B or so, so not interesting for short term trading purposes. This is really a boring stock, even on a longer term basis, but I guess not too risky either. Good luck if you own it :)

Quote from: supergeek on January 29, 2007, 11:45:40 AM
I sold 60% of my EVCC at the open today for 5.47. It was up 600% or so since i bought it, so im not kicking myself that hard. and i still have the other 40% up almost 800%. I cant explain this company mainly because i cant find much on it. like i said last week, my dear old mum who knows nothing about this had a dream hunch so i bought a little bit.

hehe supergeek, you're a funny guy ;D And a great trader too, holding for that huge run up ! I wonder how were you able to do it without knowing much about the company. You probably trust a lot in technical analysis and kept it as it went up ... but that's kind of contradictory to selling now, since it continues to go up (but perhaps making a short term top, who knows).

Well, the next time your mom has a dream, don't forget to mention it here at 3 Stocks :D

Thanks !

Quote from: gmarc66 on January 29, 2007, 12:19:55 PM
Happy Birthday David! ;D

I believe it was Ramsburgs and Michaels Birthdays this month too, wasnt it? Happy Belated Guys! :D

thanks

julia

Hi julia, nice to see you :)

Yes, Ramsburg made 30 on December the 28th, I'm exactly 11 months older than he is. Don't know about Michael though, got to ask him, since he's a close friend (although I never met him personally, I talk to him everyday and have talked more with him than many "close" friends I have near by ...

Quote from: nullzero on January 29, 2007, 12:21:38 PM
Happy birthday david btw, I look for stocks under 1 billion market cap from now on.

Yes nullzero, even if you want to short a stock, if you're looking for fast profits, it will be easier to grab them on a low market cap company, because, you know, for a $10 B company to fall 50%, it must lose $5 B in value, for a $300 M market cap to do the same move on the share price, it just needs to lose $150 M in market value.

So, much easier for small caps to make big short term moves than with big caps (although, sometimes these stocks can make big moves too).

In the past I had the tendency (when considering shorting, which I don't like much, because of the long term reward/risk ratio) to look for huge companies, because I thought they had more to lose ... that's true, but not in share price terms, and that's what ultimately makes your account balance change.

TRMM touched yesterday's low of $2.92 and it is coming back to $3 now. I wonder if it will push back above $3, even I will be surprised. But I'm still holding, I usually don't change plans all that frequently and don't like to watch the intraday activity.

OFI still pushing up strong, gaining 10% today.

SILC has been giving you a chance to buy below my entry price for a couple of hours or so, but I guess it will close at the high of the day.

Quote from: Quilan on January 29, 2007, 01:09:59 PM
Watch DYMTF today!!!

It's on fire!

3 minute look for DYMTF.OB:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-2120008801433451432&hl=en

Indeed on fire, but it looks tremendously overvalued, with $175 M market cap and $0 revenues (also huge losses).

Good luck though, thanks for the suggestion :)

hi dave,.................happyyyyyyy birth..

i´am new at 3 stocks on fire...................

what you thinking about "ptsc"

have a nice day.............. :) :)

Hi David,

what about one of your old pick?
     

WYY


Thanks
phabrux

Short on fire RDWR?

Hello and happy birthday!

FUEL please.

...then, take a break and go to the park with your kids  ;)

Quote from: marlene on January 29, 2007, 02:18:49 PM
hi dave,.................happyyyyyyy birth..

i´am new at 3 stocks on fire...................

what you thinking about "ptsc"

have a nice day.............. :) :)

Hi marlene, thanks, and you're welcome to 3 Stocks on Fire :)

I know PTSC.OB fairly well, and unfortunately I dislike it. Here's my latest take on it:

«PTSC.OB 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=1631124066098011850&hl=en

I said on the video that I would share a link to a more in depth analysis of PTSC.OB, but unfortunately somethings wrong with www.otcbbcoverage.com where I had the analysis posted. I'll talk to Ramsburg to see what's up with that website and will post PTSC's written analysis here, later (I was extremely bearish on the stock when it was trading at $1.20 - $1.30, it's a pity xxxxxx didn't read that analysis. But, don't worry mate, all you need to do, I guess, is take the loss, the lesson, and move on :))»

Quote from: phabrux on January 29, 2007, 02:24:37 PM
Hi David,

what about one of your old pick?
       

WYY


Thanks
phabrux

WYY my old pick? I don't think so phabrux, at least, I don't remember it. Perhaps it was of the beers I had over lunch (http://mdteague.com/Cheers), so please refresh my memory with a link.

Thanks :)

Hey guys - I think we're supposed to be giving David stocks that are on fire...not down for the day on low volume...we don't need to waste his time!

Quote from: nullzero on January 29, 2007, 02:28:48 PM
Short on fire RDWR?

RDWR 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-8781151159074150907&hl=en

Yeah, perhaps a good short opportunity, but revenues were up this latest quarter when compared to the previous 3 quarters, so I don't know. About $240 M market cap for $81.4 M in sales isn't the most expensive I've ever seen.

I guess the stock will go down some over time, but I don't think it will collapse another 20 or 30% over the short term.

Anyway, I can be wrong, good luck nullzero (and turn that head into long positions on other stocks - just kidding, go with your own analysis)

There was an SEC form 4 just out for TRMM saying a former director of the company (he resigned on 1/1/2007) has sold 40,131 shares at $2.93 on Wednesday.

Anyway, he had just 15,000 shares more, so I don't expect more selling pressure coming from him.

I think all weak hands are out of board now, TRMM can/should push up and breakout above $3.3 !

i cant believe i didn't short EVCC.ob

good call whoever said that one!

I wish you had the chance to buy SILC, it can go up more than 40 or 45% today :)

DKAM is on fire

Quote from: prodigykid6 on January 29, 2007, 03:13:09 PM
i cant believe i didn't short EVCC.ob

good call whoever said that one!

Yes, what an incredible reversal, I always thought the stock was full of air. Tokyopua made the short call, supergeek made the long one, and they were both right :)

Look out below, here comes EVCC, i bailed all my remaining shares when i saw it crumbling. Wish i knew enough to short. all in all, best trade ever.

DYMTF.OB  Symetrical triangle breakout, hot alternative energy.

Quote from: pompano on January 29, 2007, 03:40:20 PM
DYMTF.OB  Symetrical triangle breakout, hot alternative energy.

Now they're into alternative energy? (previously they were into selling a film to wrap food or something) I dislike that stock, read my 3 minute look on a previous page of this thread pompano. Good luck :)

Quote from: supergeek on January 29, 2007, 03:20:44 PM
Look out below, here comes EVCC, i bailed all my remaining shares when i saw it crumbling. Wish i knew enough to short. all in all, best trade ever.

Gee, I'm glad you got out and made an incredible trade on the long side, down 33% as we speak, after being up more than 30% on the day :o

The people that bought high and were not quick or disciplined enough to get out fast are burning now. Well, I guess they got what they deserved, by not paying any attention to the fundamentals of what they were buying.

Anyway, this goes to show that everything is possible in the stock market, even a worthless piece of paper going to a value of $300 M.

This is the classic pump and dump made by professionals. If you want to sell a big quantity of paper to the public, first make the stock rise as high as you can with a lot of transactions (even if they are made with you buying and selling to yourself using several accounts, to create a market), and then dump on the way down. I bet people will be attracted to this stock all the way down to below $1.

If I were you supergeek, I would buy flowers for your mom and never, ever, touch this stock again. It's a devil's stock >:D

Man I missed the short on fire EVCC :(. I covered RDWR for a 2% loss. Doing ok today thanks because of David's recommendation on buying SILC and a SPPI buy today as well.

Quote from: 422fwhp on January 29, 2007, 02:29:48 PM
Hello and happy birthday!

FUEL please.

...then, take a break and go to the park with your kids  ;)

Thanks 422fwhp :)

I had enough of party today already, I'll play with them after the market closes :)

Here's my current take on FUEL, good luck:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-5554588334383423620&hl=en

Not to be a pest Dave but ESLR is way overbought...I think its a easy short.

Quote from: prodigykid6 on January 29, 2007, 04:05:16 PM
Not to be a pest Dave but ESLR is way overbought...I think its a easy short.

How can you call a stock that is down 50% over the last 10 months "overbought"?

Moreover, "overbought" is not a good reason to sell anyway (and "oversold" is also a poor motive to buy)

Why are you so much into shorting? Longer term it is a loser's game, because your maximum possible reward is just 100% (unless you're using margin) and the risk is much higher than that. If I were into shorting this market (which I ain't, because we're in a bull market), I would use futures or options, not stocks.

Anyway, good luck prodigykid6 :)

Ok, the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) closed up again today, by 3.98% to $21,394, up 42.63% from $15,000 on January 22, 2007.

Thanks for your participation, see you tomorrow :)