3SOF

Good morning :)

On the Premium area of www.3stocksonfire.org I made a full analysis of CPNE.OB's news released yesterday, and although I expect some early morning weakness due to misinformed selling, I expect the stock to come back and close positive on the day.

I'm still not willing to sell ETLT.OB or PFSW, even though these stocks have been weak lately (you can read my justification for this on yesterday's thread).

Now I remembered that I didn't update the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.0) with yesterday's analysis, I'll do it right away.

Let's cover some new or add comments to existing covered stocks.

Thanks for your participation :)

GM David,could you look at TBUS for me? It's been riseing the last couple days on increaseing volume. Thanks

Hi David!!  What about FALC  ?  Thanks

IMOS is looking really good :).

MCZ

Quote from: nica33 on February 14, 2007, 09:39:17 AM
Hi David!!  What about FALC  ?  Thanks

This one looks good, nice breakout, finanacials!

Hi David - Can you check out JRJC?

Thanks!

whats your comment about WTVI David?
tia
Oliver

KRSL...reported earnings today...look good with 109% increase of net income.

Quote from: 2bun on February 14, 2007, 09:35:05 AM
GM David,could you look at TBUS for me? It's been riseing the last couple days on increaseing volume. Thanks

You know I can't speak English very well (I'm not used to talk, just write), but here's a 3 minute look for TBUS:

http://www.youtube.com/v/jtxf-lwEozE

I think the previous two days run was due to the company purchasing some shares at $1.19 in the open market to give them to directors as a compensation plan, so nothing materially changed and the stock will probably come back down to the $1.20 area, at least that's my view with the current public information.

But trading at a very low price to sales ratio (but balance sheet is weak and it has been losing money).

Got to bring up my favorite David............ASTM.

clinical trials looks like it's progressing very nicely!

Quote from: nica33 on February 14, 2007, 09:39:17 AM
Hi David!!  What about FALC  ?  Thanks

FALC 3 minute look:

http://www.youtube.com/v/77q4VYMNptg

It looks like the stock is about to breakout above a long term resistance level, but that breakout hasn't occurred yet, as I see important resistance at the $10.3 - $10.4 level.

Fundamental trends are awesome, and the 4th quarter results were really spectacular, but that looks priced in to me. The stock might pullback, I don't see all that much upside, but I can be dead wrong, as the momentum is very positive now.

Good luck :)

Videos on www.youtube.com are taking several minutes to process, that's why you see "video not available" or something like that. What a pity.

Ramsburg already told me that when he comes back from his holidays we'll start working with DivX (DIVX).

I guess until then it's not worth making more video analysis. Let me go back to writing.

AEY nice gain with volume

CYCR.ob

Quote from: nullzero on February 14, 2007, 09:40:37 AM
IMOS is looking really good :).

Yep, powerful bullish reaction to the 50 days SMA.

And the recent news out of IMOS promise to finally unlock the company's valuation.

IMOS was covered previously, as one can see on the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.0) under "I", but I guess the recent news and increased institutional ownership are a clear signal that IMOS is on the right path to make its shares reflect the true value of the company.

I'm a bull in IMOS (although, for me the best in the sector is still AMKR)!

Quote from: nica33 on February 14, 2007, 11:39:57 AM
CYCR.ob

I like the insider purchases but its a biotech. Maybe David will check it out.

KRSL keeps going.  I sold mine at 16.48.  I couldn't tell if the 16.50 top back in May of 2006 is for real.  I'm thinking not since KRSL still wants to run.  I was thinking with that type of earnings growth this one might double.

Quote from: prodigykid6 on February 14, 2007, 11:43:43 AM

Quote from: nica33 on February 14, 2007, 11:39:57 AM
CYCR.ob

I like the insider purchases but its a biotech. Maybe David will check it out.

It's in the medical appliances and equipment industry. Actually the news are related with some tools  and tests to detect early stages of some types of cancer

Quote from: kpusan63 on February 14, 2007, 09:45:20 AM
MCZ

The short term trend is bullish, and perhaps today's gap up will be a breakaway gap. But the stock is losing momentum throughout the session, since it is below the opening level.

Fundamentally:

- Market cap is $39.6 M. Designs, manufactures, markets and distributes video game accessories.
- Balance sheet is somewhat weak, because the current ratio is just 1.2.
- There's no revenue trend, but annual revenues are much higher than the market cap, so if the company turns profitable ...

• Mad Catz Reports Fiscal 2007 Third Quarter Basic and Diluted EPS of $0.07 (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070213/20070213006388.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Tue 4:00pm)

Revenues declined 3.8%, but that wasn't the problem with the company. The problem was that it wasn't profitable. Well, it is now.

I see MCZ going higher over time, too cheap to handle at current levels.

David I was thinking it would be nice on the stocks coverd list if you would start putting your overall sentiment after the symbol. Something simple like Bull Bear, or Neutral. What do you think?

Does anyone have a suggestion for a stock under $3 for my daughter's IRA .. I prefer ones that can be held 6 mos to a year or more & of course with great fundies and growth potential  :)  Would ETLT be a good candidate or is it more for a shorter term trade?  Thanks

FALC broke an ascending triangle to the upside just now, looking good....

hi david

LBTS is on fire...

ket

NGA is on fire ;D

Quote from: boatguy on February 14, 2007, 12:32:30 PM
NGA is on fire ;D

Earnings look great.

North American Galvanizing & Coatings, Inc. (Amex: NGA - News) reported today quarterly net income of $1,006,000, or $.12 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2006 compared to quarterly net income of $254,000 or $.03 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2005. For the year ended December 31, 2006, the company's net income was $4,535,000 or $.60 per basic share and $.58 per diluted share, compared to net income of $644,000 or $.08 per diluted share for 2005. The increase in net income is primarily a result of the increase in sales volume and average selling prices.

XIDE/XIDEW/ forming a new uptrend.

I am really" in love" with this stock.

Quote from: dnickers on February 14, 2007, 10:13:38 AM
Hi David - Can you check out JRJC?

Thanks!

Technically the trend is positive and volume has been above average lately, as you can check on the chart below.

Fundamentally:

- Market cap is $134 M. The Company specializes in providing online financial and listed company data and information in China.
- Balance sheet is awesome, with $41.6 M in cash and just $3.69 M in total liabilities.
- Revenue trend was very positive until 2006, because this year's revenues for the first nine months of the year are declining 15% from the 2005 levels. The revenue multiple is way high, at 20.
- The company is profitable. For the nine months reported in 2006 the company achieved EPS of $0.05, down from $0.17 over the first 9 months of 2005.

I think the catalyst moving the shares lately was an SEC file published on February 7, saying International Data Group, Inc., an investment fund, has revealed ownership of about 20% of JRJC shares traded in Hong Kong.

The balance sheet is truly impressive, but the company needs to raise those revenues and profits to be valued even higher, a 20 times revenue multiple is too high for my stomach. I love the business, though.

I'm neutral on JRJC, interesting stock ...

In @ 5.5 NGA

Sold HGR-

picked upn TWTR also :)

Quote from: BadOscar on February 14, 2007, 12:13:36 PM
David I was thinking it would be nice on the stocks coverd list if you would start putting your overall sentiment after the symbol. Something simple like Bull Bear, or Neutral. What do you think?

Yes, that would be great. I'll think about a way of doing that over the weekend, thanks for the suggestion :)

LTS - can be nice /up 20%/ short now

Quote from: la-onda on February 14, 2007, 10:14:54 AM
whats your comment about WTVI David?
tia
Oliver

I don't have the stock on my Metastock database, and my Reuters Data Link service isn't working properly. Probably I'll have to wait for Ramsburg for him to fix this mess, I'm having a lot of hand work to update the charts :P

But I guess everybody knows the chart and how to read it. Let me take a brief look at the fundamentals, which probably you know already, and more ;)

Oopss, also no fundamental data. I'm sorry, I'll have to pass this one.

Quote from: David Randolph on February 14, 2007, 12:49:38 PM

Quote from: BadOscar on February 14, 2007, 12:13:36 PM
David I was thinking it would be nice on the stocks coverd list if you would start putting your overall sentiment after the symbol. Something simple like Bull Bear, or Neutral. What do you think?

Yes, that would be great. I'll think about a way of doing that over the weekend, thanks for the suggestion :)

Maybe you can write the tittle or tick green, red or black

Great idea Nica!! Applaud

Sentiment defined by color ;D

Nice eye too- keep em coming!

plrs is on fire

Quote from: kslifka on February 14, 2007, 10:36:45 AM
KRSL...reported earnings today...look good with 109% increase of net income.

Technically the stock is advancing 45% as I write, so it can't be anything else but bullish.

Fundamentally:

- Market cap is just $29.5 M. Manufactures precision metal components & assemblies for use in military & commercial aircraft engines & industrial gas turbines. The Company's products include tube assemblies of multiple sizes, configurations & machined components.
- Balance sheet is healthy, current ratio is 5.78
- Revenue trend is positive. The company reported results today:

• Kreisler Manufacturing Corporation Announces Second Quarter Financial Results: 36% Sales Growth and 109% Increase in Net Income (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070214/clw043.html?.v=84)
PR Newswire (Wed 10:00am)

Net income for the last 6 months was $1 M, so we can expect about $2 M for a full year and that puts the earnings multiple at about 15.

The stock looks somewhat cheap, but not a steal at current levels. Nice catch kslifka, congrats :)

Quote from: thai626 on February 14, 2007, 10:52:27 AM
Got to bring up my favorite David............ASTM.

clinical trials looks like it's progressing very nicely!

Technically the stock looks like it is developing a bottoming process, but the medium term trend is still bearish as you can see on the chart below.

Fundamentally:

- Market cap is $175 M. The Company is a development stage company focused on the development of autologous cell products for use in regenerative medicine.
- Balance sheet is strong like it usually happens with biotechnology companies that sell many shares
- Revenues are incipient
- Huge losses every quarter, above ($4 M)

thai626, you need to read the 3 SOF Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0), there it says I dislike most biotechnology stocks. ASTM is no exception, even though I don't know how to value it properly.

Good luck :)

David what do you think of DSEN.OB? Up over 30%.. Just remembered the volume may be to low for your tastes. Its only traded $170k worth of stock for the day.

dave how about ftrs

hello david...................utvg is trading right now at 1.03$$, take a look..........
marlene ;D

Quote from: kpusan63 on February 14, 2007, 11:28:57 AM
AEY nice gain with volume

The stock is now trading 5.5% below the opening price. Perhaps it's developing a reversal island technical pattern, but it's dangerous to go with this type of pattern because the trend remains bearish.

Let me check the news that made it gap down in December 12, 2006 and the news that is making AEY gap up today:

• ADDvantage Technologies Reports Results for Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2006 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061211/nym221.html?.v=43)
PR Newswire (Mon, Dec 11)

• ADDvantage Technologies Reports Fiscal 2007 First Quarter Earnings (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070213/nytu130.html?.v=83)
PR Newswire (Tue 4:05pm)

The two press releases completely justify the stock's behavior. The trailing earnings multiple is 9.6, but now the company reported $0.14 EPS for the fiscal 2007 1st quarter. If we multiply this by four quarters (which I think we can do), we get $0.56 EPS for a full year and that puts AEY earnings multiple at 6.7.

The revenue multiple is also about 0.7. The balance sheet looks ok (problem is very high levels of inventories, but stable).

I see AEY shares as attractive at this point. Perhaps there will be some more selling due to the very big gap up, but over time I see it rising, unless fundamentals deteriorate again. With the current information I think it should at least double.

Thanks for the suggestion :)

La Onda,

WTVI history is pump and dillute, pump and dillute, then Reverse Split.  I have the shares to prove it.  Maybe not this time, but every time I have seen that phrase written, it seems to always end up the same as before.  On the positive side, in one of my accounts if I trade the shares from the last reverse split that I have I can now pay the commission to trade them and break even.

Quote from: tokyopua on February 14, 2007, 12:17:49 PM
FALC broke an ascending triangle to the upside just now, looking good....

Outta FALC now, triangle target basically made at 11.  HOpe some others got in on that quick extra 5%.  Gotta applaud nica33 again, keep those hot picks coming!  And tell us how you find them too!  Are you doing intraday scans, or just reading news.  Enquiring minds want to know! ;D

Quote from: prodigykid6 on February 14, 2007, 11:43:43 AM

Quote from: nica33 on February 14, 2007, 11:39:57 AM
CYCR.ob

I like the insider purchases but its a biotech. Maybe David will check it out.

prodigyki6 is right, I dislike this type of company. Negative working capital, incipient sales, big losses every quarter. Perhaps the future can be bright, but already a $200 M company with a negative book value of ($7 M). My fundamental database says it has just 1 employee.

I really dislike biotech stocks. But it has been rising, good luck :)

Quote from: marlene on February 14, 2007, 02:22:30 PM
hello david...................utvg is trading right now at 1.03$$, take a look..........
marlene ;D

I know, I know, at $1.07 now ;)

DSEN

David, could you take a look. Low volume trading stock but volume is up in comparison to average volume. 38% rise today

Quote from: tokyopua on February 14, 2007, 02:42:58 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on February 14, 2007, 12:17:49 PM
FALC broke an ascending triangle to the upside just now, looking good....

Outta FALC now, triangle target basically made at 11.  HOpe some others got in on that quick extra 5%.  Gotta applaud nica33 again, keep those hot picks coming!  And tell us how you find them too!  Are you doing intraday scans, or just reading news.  Enquiring minds want to know! ;D

Got in at 10.24 and out at 10.86. Awesome and yes, where do you find these great picks nica33? I would like to subscribe to your filtering or scanning sytem.

Quote from: TraderStar on February 14, 2007, 12:16:55 PM
Does anyone have a suggestion for a stock under $3 for my daughter's IRA .. I prefer ones that can be held 6 mos to a year or more & of course with great fundies and growth potential  :)  Would ETLT be a good candidate or is it more for a shorter term trade?  Thanks

If ETLT.OB's numbers are close to the truth, I think the stock might double from current levels, but that is somewhat risky.

My best bet would still go to CPNE.OB. That one I see tripling in 6 months and I don't have many doubts about that. I would grab it now, as it is still below $3.

Good luck :)

PRW...I don't know what's up with it...but it's pissing me off since I never bought it.  Have been watching it go up since .40 a few days ago. >:D

.......hey, what do you think about plro, maybe in a few days is an intersting point to get in...............

Bought SYNX in the 1.60's and 70's and had a little pop today,can you have a look David?

Quote from: tokyopua on February 14, 2007, 02:42:58 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on February 14, 2007, 12:17:49 PM
FALC broke an ascending triangle to the upside just now, looking good....

Outta FALC now, triangle target basically made at 11.  HOpe some others got in on that quick extra 5%.  Gotta applaud nica33 again, keep those hot picks coming!  And tell us how you find them too!  Are you doing intraday scans, or just reading news.  Enquiring minds want to know! ;D

I run intraday scans.  The best trade for me is open near the previous close (minimal gap) and a sustainable trend with very good volume.  Like CSX today.  I didn't mention this one here because is a big cap.  I like too check the news some minutes before market closes sometimes I can catch good movements (like FALC)  ;)

Quote from: nica33 on February 14, 2007, 03:08:07 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on February 14, 2007, 02:42:58 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on February 14, 2007, 12:17:49 PM
FALC broke an ascending triangle to the upside just now, looking good....

Outta FALC now, triangle target basically made at 11.  HOpe some others got in on that quick extra 5%.  Gotta applaud nica33 again, keep those hot picks coming!  And tell us how you find them too!  Are you doing intraday scans, or just reading news.  Enquiring minds want to know! ;D

Any specific software or methods?

I run intraday scans.  The best trade for me is open near the previous close (minimal gap) and a sustainable trend with very good volume.  Like CSX today.  I didn't mention this one here because is a big cap.  I like too check the news some minutes before market closes sometimes I can catch good movements (like FALC)  ;)

David, if I remember correctly, you don't like aleternative energy stocks or solar stocks but they are on fire today...dsti, stp, eslr and especially fslr up 28% when I posted this.

.......... david,still something, I think it a mistake is to be held cpne even longer.............the chart doesn't look exactly well the past days, maybe after the 10k is a better time to get in........................

David if you could take a look at RFIVF please! Thanks

I guess I need to face the fact that CPNE.OB doubled over the last month and a half so it will need some time to digest that kind of a run. After the current consolidation period is over I see it running a lot higher, because at the minimum I estimate $0.4 EPS for 2007, and that should put the share price somewhere between $8 and $12.

Quote from: waverider on February 14, 2007, 03:18:54 PM
David if you could take a look at RFIVF please! Thanks

I don't have this stock's chart, but I checked the fundamentals, and it is a mining company without operations. I avoid this type of stock, as you can see on the 3 SOF Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0) under Q&A 15.

Good luck :)

Quote from: David Randolph on February 14, 2007, 02:58:27 PM

Quote from: TraderStar on February 14, 2007, 12:16:55 PM
Does anyone have a suggestion for a stock under $3 for my daughter's IRA .. I prefer ones that can be held 6 mos to a year or more & of course with great fundies and growth potential  :)  Would ETLT be a good candidate or is it more for a shorter term trade?  Thanks

If ETLT.OB's numbers are close to the truth, I think the stock might double from current levels, but that is somewhat risky.

My best bet would still go to CPNE.OB. That one I see tripling in 6 months and I don't have many doubts about that. I would grab it now, as it is still below $3.

Good luck :)

Thanks David, I got her some CPNE.  I too think it needs a little rest, that would be healthy but it definitely looks higher from here :)

Quote from: nica33 on February 14, 2007, 03:08:07 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on February 14, 2007, 02:42:58 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on February 14, 2007, 12:17:49 PM
FALC broke an ascending triangle to the upside just now, looking good....

Outta FALC now, triangle target basically made at 11.  HOpe some others got in on that quick extra 5%.  Gotta applaud nica33 again, keep those hot picks coming!  And tell us how you find them too!  Are you doing intraday scans, or just reading news.  Enquiring minds want to know! ;D

I run intraday scans.  The best trade for me is open near the previous close (minimal gap) and a sustainable trend with very good volume.  Like CSX today.  I didn't mention this one here because is a big cap.  I like too check the news some minutes before market closes sometimes I can catch good movements (like FALC)  ;)

Thanks for the reply nica33.  What software or site are you using for your scans? And if you know, how often do they update the data?

I have just started using stockcharts.com.  Seems they refresh data anywhere between 7 and 15 minutes it seems to me.  I also like to find stocks with good news that seem to have an upward trend that is steady.  FALC was a great example, and the volume confirmed that it could keep going up.  Its also nice when you can see patterns forming on the 3 or 5 minute charts.

Quote from: David Randolph on February 14, 2007, 03:19:02 PM
I guess I need to face the fact that CPNE.OB doubled over the last month and a half so it will need some time to digest that kind of a run. After the current consolidation period is over I see it running a lot higher, because at the minimum I estimate $0.4 EPS for 2007, and that should put the share price somewhere between $8 and $12.

You are not changing your trading plans on this one are you?

David,  What about selling PFSW and ETLT tomorrow and try to buy something on fire if something is burning tomorrow?  I figured the flames are out on PFSW and ETLT and they deserve to be held long-term.  The reason I'm suggesting this is to get the momo back since when you buy something you help move the price even more.    Sometimes we all need a good cheer! Tomorrow let's buy some fire-stocks!

Quote from: lancefur on February 14, 2007, 03:42:43 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on February 14, 2007, 03:19:02 PM
I guess I need to face the fact that CPNE.OB doubled over the last month and a half so it will need some time to digest that kind of a run. After the current consolidation period is over I see it running a lot higher, because at the minimum I estimate $0.4 EPS for 2007, and that should put the share price somewhere between $8 and $12.

You are not changing your trading plans on this one are you?

No.

On the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) I'm not selling before February 22nd. Over the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) ... I plan to hold for at least 6 to 12 months, but you know I update the initial analysis everyday.

SIMO, JADE can be on fire tomorrow ?? Could be ??

Quote from: mbaugh on February 14, 2007, 03:56:27 PM
David,  What about selling PFSW and ETLT tomorrow and try to buy something on fire if something is burning tomorrow?  I figured the flames are out on PFSW and ETLT and they deserve to be held long-term.  The reason I'm suggesting this is to get the momo back since when you buy something you help move the price even more.    Sometimes we all need a good cheer! Tomorrow let's buy some fire-stocks!

Thanks for the suggestion mbaugh, I know you care :)

I could do it, but I don't want to. I want to turn about $24,000 into $150,000 and I'm pretty sure that those two stocks, with CPNE.OB's help, will drive the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) up to $50,000 over the next couple of months. I just need some patience ;)

Anyway, tomorrow I'll do this differently to make it more interactive and more focused on stocks on fire, been kind of boring lately, I know.

Unfortunately the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) was down for the third day in a row, as the 3 stocks held are going through consolidation phases. But you know that I remain confident in their technicals and fundamentals.

The risk of selling these 3 to chase other stocks on fire is that those new stocks start consolidation phases themselves and the 3 previously held resume their uptrends ;D

So, not so easy to play this game. Still, the Portfolio is up 59% in less than a month, I'm glad.

Tomorrow I'll work differently. I'm particularly interested in nica33 and Tokyopua's talk about how to scan and filter the market to get stocks on fire. Perhaps I'll spend the day not analyzing stocks, but analyzing services that enable us to find the best stocks in the quickest way possible. Study some analytical tools for a change. Might be useful.

See ya :)