3SOF

 SVA looks like a buy, or add here technically:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p31373976034
                                                    -r.

 Hi, David Randolph!

Volume is back in SVA!
Institutions back also, including a new one-Royce and Associates.

Here's the new Point and Figure Chart. Double Top Breakout today!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=SVA,P&listNum=

Here's the six month SVA chart, with China Halter Index as backchart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p33558081449

All the best,
                              -rand

 10/16/06- SVA B/O above 200 MA.
Positive news on the company hiring a new IR/PR firm.
News on Phase II trials commencement for its H5N1 vaccine candidate- Panflu(TM) anticpated by 10/28/06.

SVA Chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&st=2006-08-25&id=p13237234562

SVA msg board of investorvillage.com, with investor commentary on recent developments:
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4494&clear=1&pt=m

All the best,
                   -rand

 10/12/06-

Hi, sebfr-

  Thank you for your reply, regarding current PPS prospects for Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (AMEX:SVA).

  Could you be more specific with regard to the resistance ponits which you see for this equity?

On 1/09/06, I reduced my trading position in SVA by 15%, on a limit sell @$3.33.
My buys into this trading position were initiated from August 26th forward, at PPS of $2.02 to $2.75, bought the week before.
Rationale: simple profit-taking.
Currently, SVA is @$3.39- just under its 200 MA:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&st=2006-08-25&id=p13237234562

The RSI, MACD, MFI all suggest some consolidation is in order.
Major news is pending for SVA- it will almost certainly be positive.
Please see my posts at investorvillage.com- SVA msg. board- for details

I see the buy-back point, or support here within 5% of the mid-line of the Bollingers, which means $2.90, plus .15- so $3.05.

As it happens- I used capital proceeds from the 10/09 SVA trade as part  of buy order for DESC yesterday...
Regards,
                    -rand

 T.A. breakout yesterday, above Bollingers, with good volume and no news.

Long from $2.10, also recent adds at $2.61 and $2.75.
Chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&st=2006-08-05&id=p30825054809

Current:$3.10. Recommend entry on limit orders around current, or just under $3.00 based on availability of shares, and accumulation for neophyte investors like myself.
Concur with "3stocksonfire" members following this equity-
A good SVA entry point for seasoned, market-savvy investors will be in the $3.80-$4.80 range.
                                  -r.

 Sinovac Biotech Ltd. broke out of its Bollinger Bands yesterday, on news of the commencement of sales of its endemic influenza vaccine- Anflu(TM).

Last year, the rise in PPS for this equity was based on its initial clinical trials for Panflu(TM)- a vaccine for the H5N1 virus, or avian influenza.

This year- the rise in SVA price will be based in part on Panflu(TM) entering Phase II trials, but the price support will be through revenues from its three approved and marketed vaccines.

Sinovac's marketing plan is to increase awareness of, and confidence in, its vaccines in the Chinese market, which will be the world's largest pharmaceutical market by 2020.

For this reason, the company has focused on promotion of its vaccines within China, rather than promotion of its equity price in the U.S. equity marketplace.

here's the chart for SVA, from April 1, 2006 forward. Please note the black "S" line- Bollinger Band width- as well as MFI (Money Flow Index) and MACD Histogram:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&st=2006-04-01&id=p75882924989

My buy prices for trading shares of SVA were $2.02 and $2.04 in the last week of August, and $2.61-$2.62 within the past two weeks. My plan is a reduction of 20%-$25% of trading shares @$3.15.

As previously mentioned in an earlier post in "Stock Picking" after an article on Sinovac's Panflu(TM) vaccine in the well-repected British medical publication- "The Lancet"- my longer-term target PPS for SVA is $4.00 and above, based on revenues for SVA in fiscal 2006.

All the best,
                       -rand

 The last post on CRXL on "3stocksonfire" was dated March 25th, 2006.
From that date until the next post on CRXL, by myself on September 22, 2006*, the PPS performance of CRXL looked like this:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CRXL&p=D&st=2006-03-25&en=2006-09-22&id=p72188655726

  I consider CRXL a hold, or accumulate. My target is approx. $28-30 by year-end, 2006.
CRXL is still my largest core holding, from Sept.  2004 @$5.68, although I reduced my position in the $28-$30 range on two separate occasions, and also diversified my position through the accumulation of a position in Galapagos Genomics (Amsterdam:GLPGA.AS), which is 9.8% owned by Crucell, NV.

I added to CRXL in my trading account on 9/25/06- yesterday, @$22.50. My capital source was a reduction in GLPGA.AS trading shares.

Please see the multiple news items on CRXL on 9/26/06 regarding vaccine development (Quinvaxem, endemic influenza, Ebola). 9/26/06 was Crucell's largest volume day of trading ever in Amsterdam.

The current chart looks like this:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CRXL&p=D&st=2006-04-01&id=p78487755330

My trading shares target is $25.00 on this short-term trade.
My L-T CRXL position remains intact.

All the best,
                       -rand


* I deleted this post, since it was not placed on the same thread as the preceding post, which was  six months prior to mine, at a time when the PPS of CRXL was approx. 25% higher..

 Below are three charts for Sinovac Biotech, Ltd. (AMEX:SVA)- a Beijing based vaccine manufacturer which has recently received international attention for successfully completing Phase I trials for Panflu(TM)- its HPAI H5N1 vaccine.

Chart #1: 4 month chart for SVA- from May 19th, 2006 to present.
In the current PPS range  ($2.75)- SVA consolidating:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p78275910281

The company may announce commencement of Phase II trials between now, and the first week of October.
Some notice of this has already appeared in Mandarin, in a number of articles. This trial would involve approx. 400 subjects, and be conducted at the Sino-Japanese Friendship Hospital in Beijing, in cooperation with China's Ministry Of Health, which is underwriting the cost of trials.
Additionally, the last four months of the year are the strongest period for revenues for Sinovac's three approved and currently marketed vaccines.

Chart #2: 4 month chart for SVA- from May 19th, 2005 (the year before) to September 19th, 2005. Please feel free to draw comparisons between this chart, and  chart #1:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&st=2005-05-19&en=2005-09-19&id=p84368391543


At this time last year, Sinovac was preparing to present its case for entering Phase I trials for Panflu(TM). Now, of course, it is preparing to commence Phase II trials.
SVA's vaccine sales revenues were up 73%, in a comparison of the first half- 2005 and the first half, 2006.

Chart #3: 4 month chart for SVA from September 19th, 2005 (exactly a year ago) and January 19th, 2006.
This chart illustrates the SVA's PPS growth subsequent to its commencement of Phase I trials. Because it shows the effect of news and developments on PPS, you want to read this chart LEFT to RIGHT, looking at the rise in share price:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&st=2005-09-19&en=2006-01-19&id=p93250601017

Will SVA repeat its prior trend in the coming months?

Investing is a matter of probabilites, not certainties. In this case, I believe the odds favor the long side. And while SVA may not, at this point be called a "stock on fire" (it was one of the "3stocksonfire" last year), it  is setting up nicely.

Long here- as previously mentioned- as a trading buy. In at $2.02, $2.04 and $2.61.
I think for a trader looking for a minimum of 20%-25% return, $2.75 is a very buyable initial price, with a stop just under $2.60, where it last found support and reversed nicely.
All the best,

                                                              -rand





 

 Here is some recent news on SVA, from September 6th, 2006-

New Scientist:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10009-chinese-bird-flu-vaccine-shows-best-results-yet.html

An article will be published on SVA's Panflu(TM) technology in "The Lancet" today, September 7th.

Also: Phase I trials are registed in the U.S. today:
http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct/show/NCT00356798?order=1

I added to my trading position yesterday @$2.62. Here is a summary of my rationale:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Technology/Semiconductors/threadview?m=tm&bn=10475&tid=73467&mid=73467&tof=1&frt=2

Sinovac has currently three approved vaccines which it is marketing in China- two for Hepatitis, and one for endemic influenza.
The September-November period is the strongest period for revenues in marketing these vaccines.

Due diligence is encouraged, as always.
All the best,
                           -rand

 Some readers may not be familiar with "The Lancet"- a British medical journal.
Here's a brief description:
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/31066/description#description

Tomorrow, "The Lancet" publishes a very favorable article on Panflu(TM), made by Sinovac Biotech, Ltd. (AMEX:SVA). Here's a preview from "The Standard"- China's leading business
paper, and ahead of New York and London.
http://www.birdflubreakingnews.com/templates/birdflu/window.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestandard.com.hk%2Fnews_detail.asp%3Fpp_cat%3D13%26art_id%3D26758%26sid%3D9764364%26con_type%3D1
The reviews of "the Lancet" article are currently appearing in Barcelona and Paris.

Here is what SVA's chart looks like, and some of the money flow metrices:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p54574343388

At $2.63 current, on a bit of profit-taking, I think SVA is attractively valued for some longer-term returns.
DD reccomended, of course.
                                                  -rand

 Here is the SVA news at the beginning of this week- on Monday, August 28th-

Sinovac- a Chinese vaccine maker, and the only Chinese pharma with U.S. exchange listiing (AMEX:SVA), offically announces the successful completion of Phase I clinical trials for its
HPAI (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) vaccine, panflu(TM):
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060828/cnm015.html?.v=5

On Wednesday, 8/30, "The Bangkok Times" - Thailand's leading online news service, carried an article on the use of Sinovac's technology to produce a pandemic influenza vaccine in Thailand, although the company has not confirmed this.

On Friday, 9/01, "The Peoples Daily"-  one of the two leading Chinese online news services
(the more politically oriented of the two) carried this story on China's five year plan (2006-2011) for pharmaceuticals:
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200609/01/eng20060901_298706.html

In addition to Panflu(TM), which will enter Phase II trials, Sinovac has three approved vaccines which it markets- Healive(TM), Bilive (TM) and Anflu(TM). See website.

Here is the six-month chart for SVA, with standard MA metrics, and Bollinger Bands:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p15741175377

While the RSI appears high because of the recent buying interest, a good indicator of timeliness here is the MFI (Money Flow Indicator) below the chart.

Bullishness in SVA is far from finished..
Notably, during its run last year, SVA became a "3StocksOnFire" selection. See "search"-SVA- "3StocksOnFire".

Up to David Randolph (same name, but no relation to "randstory") whether it again makes the grade, but the chart suggests that, with a run from $2.04 to $2.60+ plus this week, it's likely been one of the 3 stocks on fire for those who started the week with it.

Best guess?- this will continue into next week as well.

All the best,
                            -r.

 Yesterday- 8/30/06- I posted on on the "3StocksOnFire" site for previous picks about Sinovac (AMEX:SVA), which has recently had some encouraging news. Some of my comments were summarized on the KYO msg. board of Investorvillage:
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4201&mn=99&pt=msg&mid=366997

Another attractive position currently is Dr. Reddy's Labs ADR (NYSE:RDY), which is a leading generic pharma in Hydrabad, India.

At $30.89, the equity is within a couple of dimes of my add price target of $30.70.
My initial price was $25.30-$26.50 last month.

The acquisition by Mylan Labs of Matrix Laboratories in India for $1.02 Billion USD suggests that the appropriate valuation for RDY is $4.02 Billion USD, or almost twice current market:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/060830/115695202507.html?.v=1

From a T.A. standpoint, RDY is also demonstrating support in the current range.

My target for RDY is $35-$38, and for SVA, it is at least $5.00 by year-end

 Not only is Sinovac Biotech Co. Ltd. (AMEX:SVA) back, but it's back with what this time appear to be the first group of institutional buyers.

Please take a look at the chart below-

SVA 2006 PPS Daily, w/Accum/Distribution, Money Flow Index, and Chaikin Money Flow:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p69641762539

The MFI spike to 80, and doubling of daily volume, are the reasons to see that SVA is in the initial stages of institutional buying....

Here are two news items- from 8/28 and 8/31- which are reason to add and hold SVA:

8/28: News of Phase I Clinical Trials Results. This news was carried front-page in the leading Chinese online dailies:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060828/cnm015.html?.v=5

8/31: Breaking News of Thailand Collaboration:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/31Aug2006_news10.php

I would expect strength in SVA to continue.
All the best,
                         rand

 Hi, David!

I think SVA is an excellent selection for your portfolio.
I've been an SVA shareholder since the equity was OTC listed as
"SNYBF.OB". I accumulated most of my current position during its retracement into the 2's this past Spring..

It doesn't surprise me at all that SVA is filling the gap left in the $3.20-$3.30 range.
It's semi-annual statement should be out very shortly, and will show that the company got a slow start this year with its "Bilive(R)" sales (the HepA/B vaccine), due to changes in the
Chinese vaccine distribution regulations last Spring.

L-T, the outlook for SVA is excellent. It should pick up in the Fall and Winter, and sales should be in the neigborhood of 10 million USD for 2005.

The IR firm of the company is excellent- hardworking, and not given to the hyperbole
which characterizes many Chinese equities.
My Chinese equity positions are: SVA, JST and a very recent position-HRBN.OB. All of these are modest positions, although SVA- in which I hold XX,000  shares- less so.
What will drive each of these companies' PPS are revenue growth.
My goal for SVA is multi-year growth.

BTW, David- on a completely unrelated topic- I added to DESC again this morning @$6.41.
I may reduce this L-T position in early October, by taking L-T cap. gains on my earliest shares from last Sept., bought @$2.12. This position has grown very strong for me recently.
All the best, David, and thank you for providing such a valuable resource for other investors!
                              -Rand

One more aside- I sold my CESV position on the morning after its earnings misguidance became apparent. No regrets. Added to ENER at $27.41 that morning.
                             -r.

 Hi,cumulina-

Thanks for your thoughtful reply!
I've been doing research today on a group of Chinese stocks- all AMEX or Nasdaq listed-
which are very briefly described in the following Yahoo!Finance post:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1609752963&tid=sva&sid=1609752963&mid=2283

Of this group- for timeliness- I like CESV the best at the moment, it's earnings should improve
in the last quarter of its fiscal year, ending 9-30-05, and be very good for next year.
I think August will be a good month for CESV, NWD, and JST, in the same way that June was a great month for SVA, and July was very good for AOB, and for AXJ.
Again- CESV, NWD and JST.
BTW- still long 92% of my L-T position in DESC

What does all this above have to do with the energy bill?
Nothing really much- so apologies may be in order for this post.
It was a question of- start a new thread, or topic, or stay with the energy bill topic, and write in reponse to the people who have posted on it.

Right now-meaning today- the Chinese equities represent my best idea for the next six months- not because they are the best individual choices, but simply because this sector, which does have its own problems, has high growth in earnings going for it.

The market may be ready to "discover" or "rediscover" China before the end of 2005, not as a export-driven economy play, but for what its larger potential is - as the largest potential consumer economy...

Signing off, cumulina.
Back to applaud your last post, and read more ...

All the best,
                          -rand