3SOF

50 MA here we come.

Jun-06-2007

Last Trade   5 day   13 day   20 day   50 day
24.12          25.51   26.40   26.11     23.81
TDD Analysis            26.77

http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=FRPT&num1=1&cobrand=&mode=stock

First time I have seen 800 vehicles per month on the table.


Aldrich said today Force builds 90 vehicles a month, but will lift that to 200 by the end of this year. It expects to build 400 a month by early 2008 and ramp that up to 800 by the end of 2008. He said its joint venture with General Dynamics (NYSE:GD - News), called Force Dynamics, will help reach its production goal.

"Every time we increase capacity, the U.S. buys every vehicle," he said. "But to get above 400 a month, we need to get an additional order, which we might see in the third quarter."


Investor's Business Daily

Buffalo And Cougar Protect Troops From Blasts In Iraq

Wednesday June 6, 7:00 pm ET
Brad Kelly

The war in Iraq rages on. And so does the body count.
The Pentagon confirmed 110 fatalities in May, making it the third deadliest month since the campaign began.

Army Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, the senior American ground commander, said in a briefing, "What we're finding is the insurgents and the extremists use (improvised explosive devices) as their own little security. And some of them have been somewhat effective, which has raised our death toll."

Back home in the U.S., Force Protection (NasdaqCM:FRPT - News) is committed to providing vehicles that protect the troops.

The face of modern warfare has changed. Land mines, IEDs and rocket-propelled grenades are weapons of choice for terrorists and insurgents. In the war's first year, troops faced new threats with vehicles never intended to withstand blasts from these weapons.

But Force Protection and its line of Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles, or MRAPs, are meeting the urgent demand for vehicles with the strength to keep the troops safe, while allowing them to complete missions.

"Our motto is to protect and save lives," said Force's Vice President Michael Aldrich. "Blast-protection vehicles are the missing arsenal of the U.S. forces. We're trying to change that."
Force's MRAP vehicles have a V-shaped hull that deflects glass and shrapnel away from the soldiers inside. Aldrich said not all V-shape hulls are created equal.

"The real strength is to bend the V-shape hull instead of welding it, which just weakens the hull," he said.

Tough Material
Force outfits each MRAP with bulletproof glass. It uses a specialty grade steel that's blast resistant and pliable. Aldrich would not reveal the type of steel due to security reasons.
The company has two types of MRAPs. The first is the Buffalo, a 23-ton, mine-protected clearance vehicle. It's used to clear traditional minefields, but has been adapted to clear routes along Iraq's deadliest streets.

The second vehicle is the Cougar, used by the Army Corps. of Engineers' bomb experts. It's a bit smaller than the Buffalo, but deflects blasts just as well.

Aldrich said Force's roughly 600 vehicles in Iraq have withstood more than 2,000 blasts. He said prior to Force's first vehicles deployed in Iraq, the Marines were losing one bomb squad a week. Since the arrival of its Cougar in October 2004, there's been just one fatality in its MRAPs.

Force shipped 195 vehicles in the first quarter, including 13 Buffalos and 182 Cougars, an increase of more than 300% from a year ago.

It raised first-quarter sales by 188% to $100.2 million, reflecting contract awards received in the second half of 2006. It was the fifth straight quarter of triple-digit growth.

In the last two months, Force's stock has shot up 80% to 30.27. But after rival Navistar International was awarded the largest MRAP contract worth more than $600 million, Force's stock has fallen 19% from its all-time high.

Aldrich said today Force builds 90 vehicles a month, but will lift that to 200 by the end of this year. It expects to build 400 a month by early 2008 and ramp that up to 800 by the end of 2008. He said its joint venture with General Dynamics (NYSE:GD - News), called Force Dynamics, will help reach its production goal.

"Every time we increase capacity, the U.S. buys every vehicle," he said. "But to get above 400 a month, we need to get an additional order, which we might see in the third quarter."

Defense Secretary Robert Gates recently said the military's MRAP program is the highest priority for the Department of Defense. Force is poised to answer the call to make more blast-resistant vehicles.

Aldrich said Force Dynamics is ready to produce 12,000 MRAPs by the end of 2008. But he said it needs to get Marine Corps orders before it can ramp up production.

Analyst Joe Maxa of Dougherty & Co. said the ongoing push to evolve the MRAP program will help Force.

Force has been awarded 1,325 of the 1,595 MRAP contracts to date, which is valued at nearly $800 million, Maxa says.

In April, the Navy gave Force Protection a $481 million order, the second largest to date, to deliver 1,000 MRAPs. Its joint venture will help build those vehicles.

"The company is awarded most of the military's contracts because its (MRAP) vehicles are battle tested and field proven," Maxa said.

Marine Corps Plan
The company's first MRAP vehicle hit the ground in Iraq in late 2004. The Pentagon was criticized for not providing U.S. troops with MRAPs and has since increased the number of orders.

The Marine Corps is seeking to double the size of its MRAP program to meet short-term combat needs. The Marines and Army want to buy 7,774 MRAP vehicles at an expected cost of $8.4 billion.

Force has already spent more money on research and development in the first quarter than it did all last year. Force's R&D spending hit $4.84 million last quarter, up more than 630% from a year ago.

Most R&D spending was for its new Cheetah vehicle, which is still in the prototype stage. The new vehicle is smaller, lighter and faster than Force's other two MRAPs.

The spending increase was one reason the company missed analysts' views in the first quarter. While Force reversed a 3-cent loss a year ago to post a gain of 4 cents a share, it missed views by 9 cents.

While the Iraq War has driven up demand for MRAPs, Force should see strength in orders continue well after the war.

The military's Joint Light Tactical Vehicle program has plans to replace its line of Humvees because they cannot withstand the blasts from IEDs. Maxa says once the Cheetah is ready for production, it should receive the bulk of the replacement orders.

"The U.S. military's plans to replace Humvees will bode well for the Cheetah, which should be a big opportunity for Force over the next 10 to 15 years" Maxa said. "Force can also sell the Cheetah to other NATO allies because it is not built to U.S. specs."

The Cheetah costs $250,000 to $300,000. That price is less than the cost of the Buffalo and Cougar at $850,000 and $500,000, respectively. Force isn't the only company vying for replacement contracts. Competitors include Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT - News), Oshkosh Truck (NYSE:OSK - News) and BAE Systems.

In order to meet the needs of the U.S. forces, the company announced in March that it is spending $4.1 million to buy land, buildings and equipment in South Carolina for research, development and testing.

"The first rule of first aid is to stop the bleeding," Aldrich said. "Our MRAPs would stop the spilling of American blood in Iraq."

Contracts Coming - Competition To Get Scraps

The competition is still many steps behind.  Apparently, from the contracts that have been awarded, Cat II is likely going all to FPI.  Oshkosh's Bushmaster and Navistar's MaxxPro are the other major competitors for Cat 1.  The competition will only have competitive offerings for the Cat 1 vehicle only until the Cheetah goes into full production this in the autumn of 2007.

Aberdeen Testing is done. FPI is meeting all the production goals of the April 23rd 1000 Vehicle Low Rate Initial Production stress test.  A full rate production contract for Cougars is right around the corner...And an initial Cheetah Order is not far behind!

Navistar Contract

Navistar's vehicle performed well enough in testing & soldiers would rather be in a Navistar vehicle then in a humvee.

However, the Navistar contract is entirely political.  Sen. Lott said, "I've worked with the Marine Corps to ensure this competition was a fair one which gave West Point's work force an opportunity to participate in this very important contract.
---When the former Senate Majority Leader, present Senate Republican Whip, is ensuring this competition gives Mississippi's work force an opportunity to participate, he is actually directing the Defense Department to award his constituents a contract.

This isn't a random truck company producing an approvable MRAP.  Navistar is only a truck company but they partnered with Israeli firm Plasan Sasa for the armoring of the truck.  Plasan Sasa has been making up-armoring kits for the Marine Corps' MTVR trucks for several years now, including contracts with Oshkosh. So their offering has always been legitimate.

Others Getting Contracts

Why have the no other contractors received follow up LRIP's?

BAE Systems

On February 14th,  BAE Systems received a $55,366,500 delivery order for 15 Category I and 75 Category II MRAP vehicles.  That was almost 4 months ago!  BAE's RG-33 vehicles were not prototypes, and they were based on the RG-31.  They had production facilities.  So, either they have been very slow to deliver these 15 Cat 1's and 75 cat II's or the Government doesn't want any more...and they apparently don't have powerful senators fighting for them.

General Dynamics

On February 26th, GD received an $11,014,290 delivery order for 10 Category I and 10 Category II MRAP vehicles.  That too was almost 4 months ago!  GD's RG-31 vehicles were not prototypes.  They have production facilities and they still delivered their prototypes late!
So, either they have been very slow to deliver these 10 Cat 1's and 10 cat II's, they've been too busy fixing their piece of crap Stryker vehicles, or the Government doesn't want any more...and they too apparently don't have powerful senators fighting for them to get MRAP without FPI.  The Government knows GD is FPI's partner and will not want to hurt Cougar production.  If they were to receive contracts they should have been in by now.

Oshkosh

On February 26th, Oshkosh Truck Corporation received a $30,619,900 delivery order for 100 Category I MRAP vehicles.  That too was almost 4 months ago!  Oshkosh's Bushmaster vehicles were not prototypes.  They have had active production facilities.  So, either they have been very slow to deliver these 100 Cat 1's or the Government doesn't want any more...and they too apparently don't have powerful senators fighting for them.  If they were to receive contracts they should have been in by now.

Protected Vehicles Inc.

On February 26th, Protected Vehicles, Inc. received $37,444,440 delivery order for 60 Category II MRAP vehicles..  That too was almost 4 months ago!  Either they have been very slow to deliver these 60 Cat II's or the Government doesn't want any more...and they too apparently don't have powerful senators fighting for them.  If they were to receive contracts they should have been in by now.  The Government may feel sorry for them and send a small contract their way.
 
Cheetah is the Future!

The Cheetah is "Awesome!" according to the soldier in this must see NBC news segment that aired May 25th.  Not good, not I like it, not performs according to the specifications..."Awesome!"  No PR could even touch something as simple as the "Awesome" quote.

With full production starting in the fall, contracts should be issued soon.  Typically contracts are issued 3 months prior to delivery of initial units.  So an out of the blue, sole source, initial Cheetah contract could be awarded at any time likely for only 100-500 vehicles.  But that would be all it takes to accelerate the PPS to new highs again.

Remember the May 18th General Conway interview:
Q I just wanted to follow up on the MRAP. There's some downsides. It's -- as far as I understand -- a slower vehicle than the humvee, it's a bigger vehicle, it's not a vehicle particularly suited for off road. I mean are we spending all this money, all this procurement effort, on a vehicle that has a very specific use that may be well-suited to the current battle, but by the time we actually have these vehicles built, we will have gotten something that won't be as useful in the next battle?
GEN. CONWAY: I don't know that any of those things you said are accurate. Now, you got three different sizes of MRAPS, and yeah, the largest size is larger than the humvee, okay? But the one that we're most interested in comes as a replacement to the humvee. If you checked our buy, we've got a couple thousand and more that are going to be replacements for the humvee. And it certainly has to have an off-road capability. It will do anything that the humvee will do.

The General is definitely aware of the Cheetah.  When he said "it" and not "they", he had in mind only one vehicle - and that's the Cheetah!

He's telling us there's a 2000 vehicle order coming for a replacement vehicle for the Humvee!!!  Could this be the Cheetah?  -It has to be, no other could be a replacement Humvee!  This will be HUGE if (when) it is.
& when you combine all that with the specs for the Cheetah on Force Protection's website now say under Roles "MRAP CAT I".

FPI is still working to make Cheetah better.  Hybrid Diesel technology on the Cheetah will likely be in future versions.  Not to save the environment but too provide a separate system that together substantially increase horse power, all-wheel drive capability and acceleration.  Oshkosh is working on Diesel hybrids, Force Protection is as well with the partnership with Quantum.

for all the links:
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=132&pt=msg&mid=2310512

cheers
O.

The Cheetah is starting to look like the dark horse. I thought the Cheetah as a replacement to the Hummer was a reach. Now it looks like a possability because the second production facility was primarily for the Cheetah and other production increases.

They have only recently proposed moving their production from 400 maximum to 800 maximum. I can only wonder if it is one sided or going both ways. But we will have to wait until the 2008 Fiscal budget to see if this comes true.


Remember the May 18th General Conway interview:

Q I just wanted to follow up on the MRAP. There's some downsides. It's -- as far as I understand -- a slower vehicle than the humvee, it's a bigger vehicle, it's not a vehicle particularly suited for off road. I mean are we spending all this money, all this procurement effort, on a vehicle that has a very specific use that may be well-suited to the current battle, but by the time we actually have these vehicles built, we will have gotten something that won't be as useful in the next battle?

GEN. CONWAY: I don't know that any of those things you said are accurate. Now, you got three different sizes of MRAPS, and yeah, the largest size is larger than the humvee, okay? But the one that we're most interested in comes as a replacement to the humvee. If you checked our buy, we've got a couple thousand and more that are going to be replacements for the humvee. And it certainly has to have an off-road capability. It will do anything that the humvee will do.

The General is definitely aware of the Cheetah.  When he said "it" and not "they", he had in mind only one vehicle - and that's the Cheetah!

for all the links:
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=132&pt=msg&mid=2310512

Force Protection Offers to Double Truck Output (Update2)

By Edmond Lococo

June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Force Protection Inc., a maker of mine-resistant trucks, has offered a plan to the U.S. military to double output during the next 18 months to speed delivery of the vehicles to troops in Iraq.

The company offered to produce a total of 12,000 of the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles, or MRAPs, by the end of 2008 through a joint venture with General Dynamics Corp., Michael Aldrich, a vice president of Ladson, South Carolina- based Force Protection said in an interview today.

Reaching the target would require boosting manufacturing to 800 vehicles a month, compared with current plans for 400, Aldrich said. U.S. forces suffered in May their deadliest month in Iraq since November 2004, and Defense Secretary Robert Gates said May 9 that faster acquisition of blast-resistant trucks is the Pentagon's top procurement priority.

``Force Protection is a company which is a relative newcomer to mass volume production, so they may not be getting credit for the idle production capacity that could be brought on line,'' said Chris Donaghey, an analyst at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey in Atlanta. ``General Dynamics has plenty of capacity but they have never built these vehicles in volume either.''
Donaghey rates Force Protection's shares ``buy'' and doesn't own any. SunTrust has done investment banking work for Force Protection in the past year.

Second-Largest Order
Force Protection has received the second-largest order for the trucks to date: a $481.4 million contract for 1,000 of the vehicles awarded in April. It produces the trucks through its joint venture with Falls Church, Virginia-based General Dynamics. The largest MRAP order so far went to Navistar International Corp. in Warrenville, Illinois, last month for $623 million to build 1,200 trucks.

Force Protection won't raise output without additional military contracts, Aldrich said.
``It would be improper for a publicly traded company to ramp up on its own initiative and spend a lot of shareholder money possibly in the wrong direction,'' Aldrich said.

U.S. Marine Corps spokesman Bill Johnson-Miles said he didn't immediately have information on the production plan.

Shares of Force Protection fell 34 cents to $23.78 at 4 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading. They have risen 37 percent this year. Shares of General Dynamics rose 69 cents to $79.62 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

Half the Market
General Dynamics and Force Protection established their joint venture to build Cougar vehicles for the MRAP program in November. Prior to that, Force Protection had a production capacity on its own of about 140 vehicles a month, Aldrich said.

The Marine Corps has announced plans to buy as many as 7,700 of the trucks with a value of $8.4 billion. The Army is still evaluating its final requirement, which could be as many as 17,700 trucks.

Force Protection and General Dynamics together may win at least 50 percent of the total truck purchase, David Gremmels, an analyst with Thomas Weisel Partners in New York, wrote in a note to clients today. The joint venture will probably win an additional order of up to 2,200 vehicles in the June-July time frame, he wrote.

The Marines have said mine-resistant trucks like the Cougar, which have V-shaped hulls to deflect blasts, are four times safer than traditional flat-bottomed vehicles. Attacks with homemade bombs accounted for 61 percent of the 2,793 U.S. combat deaths in Iraq as of May 19, according to Pentagon data.

Other companies with truck production contracts under the MRAP program include BAE Systems Plc in London, Oshkosh Truck Corp. in Oshkosh, Wisconsin, and closely held Protected Vehicles Inc. of North Charleston, South Carolina.

BAE and Oshkosh will probably win more awards in the next few weeks, Gremmels wrote.
To contact the reporter on this story: Edmond Lococo in Boston at [email protected] .
Last Updated: June 7, 2007 16:19 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=FRPT:US&sid=aNZYiNKXz0FU

amstocks82 quotation from IV:
MRAP More Probabilities and Analysis

Under MRAP, the military announced that they would purchase three categories of vehicles called CAT 1, CAT 2 and CAT 3. All three types of vehicles are mine and IED resistant. CAT 1 is mainly for urban combat operations and can carry a minimum of six personnel. CAT 2 is a multi-mission vehicle that can be used for troop transport, convoy escort, ambulance EOD and etc. CAT 2 vehicles can carry 10 or more personnel. CAT 3 is a Mine/IED clearance vehicle and the Buffalo manufactured by FPI has been named as the sole source CAT 3 vehicle.

The Defense Supplemental bill should cover more than the original requested 4100 vehicles but not the entire 7700 vehicles. The Defense Supplemental bill has around 3 billion dollars for MRAP. On average, the cost of vehicles has been around 500,000 each but this does not include standard deployment items or maintenance items. It also does not include military equipment such as weapons mounts radios and etc. If the military purchases the other items with the 3 billion for MRAP, then the actual cost to the military to deploy the vehicles goes up to around $700,000 to $800,000. The military may take the weapons mounts and radios from other vehicles that they will retire. If so, the cost to deploy the average vehicle so far ordered might be around $600,000 to $700,000. Therefore, the military has the funds to order up to approximately 4500 +- 500 vehicles. There are a few assumptions underlying this:

A. The military reuses some military equipment.
B. The military does not use other funds to pay for standard deployment items.
C. The original 1000 vehicle order to FPI was partly funded by retargeting funds from other projects. It is unknown how much of that money will be returned to the original project.

The list of companies that competed for MRAP contracts were: Armored Holdings, BAE Systems, Force Dynamics, General Dynamics Land Systems, General Purpose Vehicles, International Military and Government, Oshkosh Truck Corporation, Protected Vehicles, Inc, and Textron. Force Dynamics (FD) is the joint venture between General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS) and Force Protection, Inc (FPI). FD will bid on MRAP opportunities available for various versions of the Cougar and GDLS and FPI will share in production and profits.

Prior to the testing of vehicles at Aberdeen, based on the militaries assessment of vehicles, some initial Limited Rate Initial Production (LRIP) orders were given. These orders were issued to accelerate the production of vehicle the military had assessed as lower risk designs for which the initial assessment was that they would likely pass testing. These LRIP orders were given as follows:

1) Force Dynamics received orders for 60 CAT I's and 65 CAT II's ($67.4 million)
2) BAE received orders for 15 CAT I's and 75 CAT II's ($55.5 million)
3) PVI received orders for 60 CAT II's ($37.4 million)
4) Oshkosh received orders for 100 CAT I's ($30.6 million)
5) GDLS-Canada received orders for 10 CAT I's and 10 CAT IIs ($11 million).

After testing at Aberdeen:

1) Force Dynamics received an order for 700 CAT II and 300 CAT I MRAP vehicles
2) International Military and Government received an order for 1200 CAT I MRAP vehicles

The question is who gets the remaining orders?

In the original terms for the MRAP contract, the military listed the following two main criteria for a vendor selection:

1) The Contractor or Contractors vehicle systems that demonstrate the best overall performance in PVT testing (with survivability being the highest priority)

2) The Contractor or Contractors that demonstrate the greatest capability to produce and deliver vehicles with the shortest ramp up time and greatest maximum production capacity, in order to meet the urgent delivery requirements for these vehicles.

Testing is done at Aberdeen Proving ground: http://www.defenselink.mil/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=46087

Since the original terms of the MRAP contracts were announced, Defense Secretary Gates has prioritized the acquisition of MRAP making it the priority one Defense acquisition project and on June 1, gave the program a "DX" rating. The "DX" rating requires industry to give the MRAP project priority over commercial orders and over other Defense related projects that have a normal DO rating.

BAE's RG33 CAT II from public information has an excellent chance to get a large order and was expected to get an early order for MRAP vehicles. It received the second largest pre-Aberdeen contract award after Force Protection and delivered it's vehicles on time. The fact that BAE has not yet received an order is feeding speculation that their vehicle failed testing at Aberdeen. There have also been reports that some manufacturers have asked for additional time to correct deficiencies in their vehicles and it is thought that BAE might be one of these manufacturers.

The RG33 and Force Protection's Cougar and Buffalo vehicle are based on designs that originated in South Africa. Force Protection has exclusive licenses to some of the South African technology for MRAP vehicles that are manufactured outside of South Africa and those licenses are not available to BAE. Most of the development of the RG33 is reported to have occurred in 2006. If BAE's vehicle failed testing, it is possible that any new technology that they recently developed for MRAP was not as effective as BAE hoped.

International's vehicle the "MaxxPro" was not considered likely to get a large contract this quickly. International does not have experience making any type of armored vehicle and its vehicles have never been in the field. However, they received the largest single order to date of 1200 vehicles.

International does have a credible ability to manufacture many vehicles quickly due to their large size. International's deficiencies in armor development were addressed by purchasing the armor for the vehicles from Plasan Sasa which is manufacturer of many types of composite armor.

The main criticisms of the order to International is that repairs to vehicles using the type of armor made by Plasan Sasa will be much more expensive than repairing a vehicle such as those made by Force Protection. Another criticism of the order is that there are no vehicles of this type in the field so it is unknown how they will perform in practice. Internationals vehicles are also more expensive than Force Protection vehicles.

Oshkosh's Bushmaster CAT II vehicle does not have the same specifications as other CAT II vehicles. The Bushmaster can survive a 9.5kg high-explosive land mine detonated under any wheel or under the centerline of the vehicle. Force Protection's vehicles can handle 15kg high-explosive under any wheel and at least 7.5kg anywhere under the vehicle. The centerline is actually the strongest area and 9.5kg means that may translate to 5kg to 6kg anywhere under the vehicle. The Bushmaster specs that I read are not clear on this. Mines are most likely to be detonated under a wheel and IEDs are most likely to be detonated close to the sides of the vehicle. There are not a large number of Bushmasters that have been built and therefore, existing manufacturing capacity to build this vehicle is low. Reliability of the Bushmaster has in the past not been high. In addition, the US military and British militaries purchased the Cougar even though the Bushmaster was available. The British tested the Cougar against the Bushmaster and the Cougar was chosen instead of the Bushmaster. I believe based on survivability, the Bushmaster does not match the Cougar.

PVI's Golan vehicle is an unknown competitor and production capacity is believed to be low. The Golan has armor tiles that can be replaced. The main armor tile on the Golan is made from a type of reactive armor. In other words, it explodes outwards to deflect the force of IEDs and RPGs directed against the vehicle. The Golan was mainly developed by Rafael that has a very good reputation for armoring. The problem with using reactive armor is that if it is hit by something which triggers the reactive armor, soldiers close to the vehicle or civilians close to the vehicle may be injured or killed by the additional explosive power of the armor.

GDLS has not gotten an order but their RG31 has been relatively effective in the field but not as effective as the Cougar.

AH – Believed to have no suitable vehicle and have indicated that they are committed to relationship with other MRAP vendors as subcontractor.

Textron – Vehicle failed testing

General Purpose vehicle – No Vehicle

The Cougar has the best safety record proven in Iraq and Afghanistan of any vehicle that vendors are bidding for the MRAP contracts. The joint venture between General Dynamics and Force protection FD has the largest and most credible ramp-up plan for producing MRAP vehicles. According to the criteria for awarding contracts for MRAP, this means that FD should be awarded contracts to manufacture as many vehicles as they can credibly manufacture.

As reported in Forbes, "Under a joint venture with General Dynamics, Force Protection will be able to deliver 12,100 vehicles between July 2007 and December 2008, Aldrich said. "We have reason to be wildly optimistic that we will receive more orders," he said. "We have passed the test, we have more than quadrupled production and we are ahead on all the contracts we are on right now." http://www.forbes.com/markets/2007/06/04/force-protection-udpate-markets-equity-cx_er_0604markets25.html

Therefore, I believe the end result will probably be:
1) If the RG33 passes military testing, BAE will probably get a large order for part of the remaining vehicles to be ordered with the funding the military currently has.

2) PVI with only a limited manufacturing capacity may get an order for some Golan vehicles if those vehicles pass the military testing.

3) Bushmaster – has been passed over in the past for orders for MRAP, the specs are not as good as other vehicles and has a low production capability and therefore probably gets few or no orders.

4) GDLS may get orders for RG31.

5) Force Dynamics gets the remaining orders. Given that Force Protection has announced that they can deliver 12,100 vehicles by December 2008, and has the best vehicle, it seems likely that the Defense Department will at least in part take them up on the offer and provide Force Dynamics with the remaining orders. The remaining orders might be larger than expected depending on which vehicles did not pass testing.

The Defense Department would be under a lot of political pressure if they don't provide Force Protection with enough orders to continue ramping up if other vehicles perform poorly in Iraq and Afghanistan. The question will be asked is why didn't they buy as many vehicles as possible from their proven vendor? Therefore, I think it is extremely likely that FD gets some very large orders in July or early August at the latest.

nice summarization:
THE OFFICIAL BLOGSITE OF BIG CAPITAL ADVISORS LTD
Thursday, June 07, 2007
FRPT gets Whacked: It's Time To Scale Back In

Force Protection is doing just fine thank you. Revenues & profits are growing at over 300% compounded annually. They make the worlds gold standard of MRAP vehicles.
The demand for MRAPS is growing exponentially to the point where the entire MRAP pie has grown from a few thousand vehicles to around 23,000 vehicles. In addition FRPT's Cheetah is the odds on leader in the race to replace all the 170,000 Humvees around the world

So what the heck has caused FRPT's price to hit an all time high of $31 only to drop to $23.88? The simple answer is fear of competition.
Early this year we were told that nine companies would be supplying their vehicles to the DOD's Aberdeen IED testing grounds. It was understood at the time that FRPT's vehicles had a technological moat around them that all but BAE systems (to some extent) could not overcome.

Now that the testing period is over, we will find out just how wide that moat is. In my opinion, FRPT's technological moat is insurmountable. However, that might not matter to our Defense Department because even at FRPT's great growth rate, FRPT can not possibly produce all the MRAPs required to protect our troops. As a consequence, the armed services might have to order some lesser quality vehicles from FRPT's competitors. Hopefully these vehicles will be able to protect our troops. Let's face it, anything is better than a Humvee.

We know that FRPT has continued to ramp up production and has guaranteed that with GD they can produce over 12,000 vehicles by December 2008. FRPT's management has repeatedly stated that the DOD has told them that they will get all the orders that they can produce. That all but insures that FRPT's revenues will more than triple again, exceeding $2 billion in 2008.

So now back down to Earth with my analysis. FRPT is growing faster than any company in America and will get contracts for all the vehicles they can produce. In all reality, the Defense Department has no choice in the matter, because they can not afford to fool around with our troop's lives.
Nevertheless, it is obvious that other contractors will be given some business. The confusion caused by the recent lull in orders, the stock market's wipeout, some insider sales, and the award of a large contract to NAV has caused a shakeout in FRPT's share price.

It is my belief that NAV will have a hard time proving that it can deliver high quality MRAPs on time. There is something fishy about how the NAV contract was awarded out of the blue with the aid of Senator Trent Lott. It is also my understanding that BAE systems is having a hard time passing the tests at Aberdeen.

It should be noted that in past times of war, the DOD has ordered other contractors to produce the DOD's preferred vehicle. Hence, it would be logical for the military to force all vendors to use FRPT's technology under a licensing or subcontract arrangement with FRPT

In short, it's time to fasten your seat belts because many major questions are going to be answered by month's end. Next week we have the GD investor conference. On June 21st FRPT will hold it's annual meeting. Lastly, we are about to hear from the DOD about who is going to be awarded MRAP contracts and how much of the pie FRPT is going to get.

Oh yes, there is the strong possibility that GD will buy FRPT lock stock & barrel. So it's time to scale back in to the portion of the FRPT shares that we sold in the high twenties.

http://bigcapitaladvisors.blogspot.com/2007/06/frpt-gets-whacked-its-time-to-scale.html

Favorable. It is more than I imagined or hoped for. It has been FRPT's secret that DoD has quietly been buying every vehicle they can produce. If DoD continues to buy every vehicle FRPT can produce it would be a business coup. Because of the competition and size of the budget proposal. My business goal for FRPT was a 1 billion dollar year, a 2 billion dollar year seems possible and optomistic.

All the negativity is being generated waiting to see what the competion is going to do. Still long and strong but vindication will not come until the Fiscal 2008 budget in October in my opinion.

This is a forward move.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange To Begin Trading Nine New Options On Tuesday, June 12

Force Protection, Inc. (option/stock symbol: QFZ/FRPT) will trade on the March expiration cycle with initial expiration months of June, July, September and December. Position and exercise limits have been set at 250,000 contracts.

http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/index.cfm?section=news&action=detail&id=67504

Its not blind ambition. Looks like they are moving forward to 400 and 800 vehicles per month.

General Dynamics to Expand Alabama Operations
Tuesday June 12, 4:15 pm ET

       
Company to add 270 employees and lease facility in Oxford

STERLING HEIGHTS, Mich., June 12 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- General Dynamics Land Systems, a business unit of General Dynamics (NYSE: GD - News), will establish assembly operations for Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles in Anniston and Oxford, Ala., and beginning mid-June will increase employment there by 270. In addition, General Dynamics will invest approx. $2.6 million in capital improvements to the facilities.

The main production site for assembly of MRAP vehicles will employ 220 new workers in an 80,000 square-foot leased portion of a BR Williams-owned building in Oxford. A supporting production site in Building 169, on Anniston Army Depot, will employ 50 new workers. General Dynamics Land Systems currently employs 240 workers on the depot building Fox and Stryker combat vehicles.

The assembly operations are being created to support a $244.5 million work order awarded on April 30 by Force Protection, Inc. (Nasdaq: FRPT - News) to assist with the production of 1,000 vehicles for the U.S. Marine Corps' Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicle program. Force Protection and General Dynamics have formed a joint venture, Force Dynamics, to share in the production and program management of the contract. The Alabama sites will add production capacity for Force Protection's Category I 4x4 and Category II 6x6 Cougar vehicles.

Anniston Army Depot will partner with General Dynamics and perform a share of the MRAP work. General Dynamics also contracted with BR Williams to operate a warehouse in Oxford to support the new production operations.

General Dynamics currently employs approximately 700 workers throughout Alabama. These new positions will increase total General Dynamics employment in the state to nearly 1,000.

General Dynamics, headquartered in Falls Church, Va., employs approximately 82,600 people worldwide and had 2006 revenues of $24.1 billion. More information about the company is available online at www.generaldynamics.com.





Source: General Dynamics Land Systems

JAGfn Rumors
Tuesday , June 12, 2007 10:48ET

Jun 12, 2007 (JAGfn.com via COMTEX) -- (FRPT) (GD) Rumor that GEN DYNAMICS CP (NYSE:GD) will make a bid for FORCE PROTECTION INC (NasdaqCM:FRPT). Price whispered to be in the $40's.

Copyright 2007 JAGfn.com All Rights Reserved

That makes two places in town.

Rumors
Sponsored by:
Market Rumors 06/12
06-12-2007 03:26:25 PM
Market Rumors:

Investment Technology Group Inc. (NYSE: ITG): 6.2% holder D. E. Shaw disclosed a letter to the company saying, the time is right for the Board to evaluate strategic alternatives to realize shareholder value, including a sale of some or all of ITG's businesses to a strategic or financial buyer.

Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX): Takeover speculation.

Massey Energy Company (NYSE: MEE): Completed its strategic review process with no deal.

Force Protection Inc. (Nasdaq: FRPT): Renewed takeover speculation.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Rumors/Market+Rumors/2468171.html

June 13, 2007 - 9:57 AM EDT           





Force Protection to Join Russell 3000 Index

LADSON, S.C., June 13 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Force Protection (Nasdaq: FRPT), the first company to bring lifesaving, mine-resistant, ambush- protected vehicles (MRAPs) to U.S. troops in combat, and the only company whose MRAP vehicles have a proven track record of saving soldiers' lives in the battlefield, has announced that the company has been added to the Russell(R) 3000 Index, according to a preliminary list of additions issued by Frank Russell Company.

Force Protection's inclusion into the Russell 3000 index will occur when the index formally reconstitutes its family of U.S. indices on June 22nd, according to the Russell website. The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the 3,000 largest U.S. companies based on total market capitalization.

Membership in the broad-market Russell 3000 remains in place for one year. It also means automatic inclusion in additional Russell indices. Russell determines membership for its equity indices primarily by objective, market capitalization rankings, and style attributes.

'Force Protection's inclusion in the Russell 3000 is truly a milestone for our growing company,' said Force Protection Chief Financial Officer Michael S. Durski. 'Our company's inclusion in the Russell 3000 will further enhance Force Protection's visibility with investors, and with the institutions that rely on the Russell indices as part of their investment strategies. Moreover, this milestone reaffirms our commitment to getting as many of our lifesaving trucks into the hands of U.S. troops as quickly as possible.

'Russell indices are widely used by investment managers and institutional investors for index funds, and as benchmarks for both passive and active investment strategies. Investment managers who oversee these funds purchase shares of member stocks according to the company's weighting in that particular index. The combined market capitalization of stocks in the Russell 3000, which reflects about 98% of the U.S. equity universe, has increased more than $3 trillion from $15.3 trillion at this point last year to $18.5 trillion today.

About Force Protection

http://www.forceprotection.net/investors/news.html

Force Protection gains ground
Wednesday, June 13, 2007 16:41ET

By Staff Reporter

NEW YORK, Jun 14, 2007 (AP via COMTEX) -- Force Protection Inc. shares jumped Wednesday after an analyst said the maker of blast-protected vehicles is preparing to ramp up production.

Force Protection is filling a U.S. Marine Corps order for 1,000 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles. General Dynamics, which has a $244.5 million contract with Force Protection to help complete the order, said Tuesday it is adding 320 jobs and spending $2.6 million on two Alabama facilities connected to that contract.

SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Chris Donaghey said Force Protection is looking to increase its production, and will need to place some large orders to do so. He believes General Dynamics is expecting a larger contract, because the current one is too small to justify what it is spending. "In our opinion, General Dynamics would not be making an investment in these facilities for a 1,000 vehicle contract and we believe this move by General Dynamics implies it expects to see significantly larger awards," the analyst wrote in a client note.
He maintained a "Buy" rating on Force Protection shares, noting that the stock has slipped 23.5 percent since touching a seven-year high on May 22.

Force Protection also said it is being added to the Russell 3000, an index of the 3000 largest publicly traded companies measured by market capitalization.

Shares of Force Protection rose $1.85, or 7.8 percent, to $25.70.
General Dynamics shares added 82 cents to $80.06.

They have to be getting more contracts, maybe a buyout??  GD buyout?
Too much potential here...move to the upside.
Also being added to the Russell 3000, that's got to be good!

SHM is next week. The partnership with General Dynamics (Force Dynamics) has been very quiet. It only makes sense for GD to buy FRPT out.
Look for a LARGE MRAP order soon. FRPT is the only company really producing MRAP vehicles - ones that the DoD really prefer, want, and desperately need.

General Dynamics' Alabama Presence Rises.......
General Dynamics to Expand Alabama Operations, Add Jobs and Revamp Facilities.

Said Monday it would develop vehicle assembly operations in Alabama, bringing in new 270 jobs and $2.6 million for facility improvements.
The main production site for the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles will take place in Oxford, Ala., in an 80,000 square-foot leased portion of a building owned by B.R. Williams Trucking.

The other production site will be at the Anniston Army Depot and will employ 50 new workers. General Dynamics Land Systems currently employs 240 workers at that site.

The new positions, expected to be added by mid-month, will increase total General Dynamics employment in Alabama to nearly 1,000.

The operations are being developed to support a $244.5 million contract awarded by Force Protection Inc., in April to develop the vehicles for the U.S. Marine Corps, the company said.



Volume: 3,115,358
Avg Vol (3m): 596,374

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
0.83%above 13-day MA
6.12%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 96 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,557.31 
P/E Ratio: 52.53 
PEG Ratio: 1.42697 
Next Earnings: 08/14/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Overweight

Nice move today, hopefully it will continue.