3SOF

Thanks for posting the news Se7en

• Cimatron 5-Axis Helps Tool Maker Reduce use of Electrodes by Over 30%
PR Newswire (Tue 9:07am)

This was more of a promotional press release than news for investors, I believe. Not enough to bring in some buyers. Anyway, I wouldn't mind to see CIMT resting around current levels on low volume. I see two "better than expected" quarters ahead and a bright future for this micro cap, so I'll keep holding the stock.

nice link:
http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?s=cimt

cheers
O.

Quote from: la-onda on June 13, 2007, 11:01:42 AM
nice link:
http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?s=cimt

cheers
O.

Yes, nice link la-onda, thanks for sharing

CIMT is falling asleep between $2.25 and $2.59. I hope the stock doesn't break down below this tight trading range, so that when the good news I expect hits the wires the stock runs from a not so low level.

We've already discussed all fundamentals and what to expect over the next few quarters and over the long term from CIMT. Patience is key here. I'll keep holding CIMT.

Q2 earnings cannot come soon enough 

QuoteI hope the stock doesn't break down below this tight trading range, so that when the good news I expect hits the wires the stock runs from a not so low level.

Unfortunately "hopping" doesn't work in the stock market. Damn CIMT had to break the trading range on the downside, damaging the Main's performance.

Technically this was negative, it may mean further downside, perhaps to the 200 days SMA, coming up at $1.98 now. Or else the stock will claw back up and close back above $2.25, that would mean the technical breakdown was a false technical signal, which often happens.

Fundamentally CIMT is now a $17.5 M market cap company with expected 2007 revenues of roughly $27 M (counting with the $5 M or so contribution from MicroStrategy, starting in Q3). The Price to Sales Ratio is about 0.65. In terms of earnings, the company had EPS of $0.093 over the last two quarters, if the next two resemble the past two, it will earn $0.186 in the 12 month period, so the expected Price to Earnings Ratio is about 11.8. This is too low, since the Technical & System Software industry trades at roughly 36 times earnings.

Moreover, the CEO said he expects strong revenue growth from the company's new die design application. Also Microstrategy consolidation will contribute to top and bottom line results. So probably the next two quarters will be better than the last two, and that will make CIMT even more cheap if the current stock price is maintained.

You know what? What happened today has nothing to do with the company's fundamentals in my view. It's just that nobody is looking at the future and nobody listened to the conference call. CIMT can even go down another 10%, that will be meaningless when the news hits the press and the stock rises 100 or 200% in one day.

I'll keep holding CIMT.

Conflict grazes Israeli stocks

http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/2006-07-18-israeli-stocks-usat_x.htm

M.

David - do you see this trading down to $1.50 before the we get positive news?  If that happens would you buy more, sell or just simply hold?

Quote from: M0NEY on June 14, 2007, 05:24:01 PM
Conflict grazes Israeli stocks

http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/2006-07-18-israeli-stocks-usat_x.htm

M.

It's very old news !
look at the date it's July 18 -2006 

Quote from: M0NEY on June 14, 2007, 05:24:01 PM
Conflict grazes Israeli stocks

http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/2006-07-18-israeli-stocks-usat_x.htm

M.

As the article says, CIMT is one of those companies with operations around the World, with Israel representing just about 8% of the company's revenues. I don't think the conflict in Israel impacted CIMT today. For example, SILC and ALDN are also Israeli companies and they rose today.

Thanks for the article Money

Quote from: DragonAMG on June 14, 2007, 05:34:32 PM
David - do you see this trading down to $1.50 before the we get positive news? 

I don't see that happening, because the stock is already too cheap. But it is possible, everything is possible in the stock market.

QuoteIf that happens would you buy more, sell or just simply hold?

Simply hold. But I don't think that's going to happen.

I see you're getting a bit nervous about CIMT DragonAMG, perhaps that's because you're overweight the stock and it is going down. I believe you're starting to see the value of diversification (at least some diversification), and not holding too much of your capital in one single stock, because unfortunately there are no 100% sure things in the stock market

I think my bull case is strong enough to keep holding CIMT despite the adversity, but I recognize that if I had, say, 20% of my money in CIMT I would definitely start having second and third thoughts and wouldn't be able to hold, even though the fundamental landscape and future expectations are quite positive.

The problem with having a higher than normal weight in one single stock is that our hands get weaker and weaker ... even small fluctuations have a big emotional impact, because every few % change means so much to us.

I never lost more than 2% of equity of the Main Portfolio in one single trade, but one thing I absolutely make sure: I will never lose more than 6.66% of total equity in one single stock, that's the maximum possible loss, in the worst case scenario that the company goes bankrupt and shares are delisted overnight.

Anyway, I wouldn't be alarmed by CIMT's long term prospects, the company has an healthy balance sheet and just bought $600 K of another company.

Well, this is a tough job, I know exactly how you feel, but unfortunately I can't push the stock back up or never be wrong. The only way I can help you (and me, and others), is to show you the value of diversification and risk control strategies.

Good luck

QuoteI see you're getting a bit nervous about CIMT DragonAMG, perhaps that's because you're overweight the stock and it is going down.

overweighted, YES... worried, NO.  I actually wouldn't mind seeing this going down to $1.50 on low volume because I would like to triple up my investment in CIMT (current cost average is $2.85). 

Of the stocks in the portfolio, I definitely think this stock has the most potential... especially now that it has gone down so much.  I would very much like to see this stock in the $6-7 range by the end of the year (I think that is a very strong possibility) and just want make sure I have  a nice chunk of shares when that happens.

SILC on the other hand... I was definitely overweighted. 

Quote from: DragonAMG on June 14, 2007, 07:01:35 PM

QuoteI see you're getting a bit nervous about CIMT DragonAMG, perhaps that's because you're overweight the stock and it is going down.

overweighted, YES... worried, NO.  I actually wouldn't mind seeing this going down to $1.50 on low volume because I would like to triple up my investment in CIMT (current cost average is $2.85). 

SILC on the other hand... I was definitely overweighted. 

Ok DragonAMG, I respect your dollar cost averaging strategy. Ahh, I'm going to sleep so much better now, after seeing Dr. House (it helps disconnecting from the stock market, a bit of TV) and your cool response ... thanks, see you tomorrow.

this is from yesterday according to Reuters
"Short Interest
Month       Shares       %outstanding       Percent of Float       Days to cover
May 07      53,000      .66                      1.96                        .67
April           34,000      .43                      1.26                        .21
March        13,000      .16                      0.48                        .12
February     6,000       .08                      0.22                       3.00"

QuoteTechnically this was negative, it may mean further downside, perhaps to the 200 days SMA, coming up at $1.98 now. Or else the stock will claw back up and close back above $2.25, that would mean the technical breakdown was a false technical signal, which often happens.

It seems like it happened again, fortunately Thursday's close was a false technical signal, since the stock closed back up above the $2.25 level on Friday.

The expectation of revenue growth going forward comes primarily from two sources:

1) The new die design application. Check the specifics of the product: Progressive DieDesign. And here's the software selling at Stampers Store, for example.

2) The Microstrategy acquisition and consolidation starting in Q3, since that company had $10.5 M in revenue in 2006.

The Microstrategy acquisition alone will make CIMT's revenues grow roughly 50%. I have 20% a year, for the next three years, in my valuation model. 20% a year over three years means 72.8% growth. 50% is in the pocket already, 22.8 percentage points to go.

But there's another issue, and that's net profit margin expansion to 15%. I believe Microstrategy is a low margin business, since it is a distributor, mainly of Cimatron's products. It's strange how a software company can't expand its net profit margin ... maybe in the future, with the cost of developing the DieDesign application and CimatronE version 8 behind us, there will be a margin expansion.

Certainly the future looks better than the past, much better ... I'll keep holding CIMT.

On the monthly chart we can see a long white candle and we reached the middle of it which was 2.24 and it closed above of it 

are we done ? I think the worst have been already done and we are expecting better movement for the stock to the up side 

I'm wating for the current monthly candle to be closed white or unchanged to start the bullish way ..
Who knows ? we might see another long white candle soon 

Nice monthly chart garoh

CIMT is back into its "normal" trading range, between $2.25 and $2.59. There was a false bearish technical signal, which is a positive short term technical development.

Longer term, Q2 can produce a bombastic press release, because net income in Q2 2006 was just $18 K and probably the company is benefiting from its new die design application. And Q3 will reflect the consolidation of Microstrategy's revenues and profits.

So, nothing else to do but to keep on holding CIMT.