3SOF

Quote from: Se7en on June 21, 2007, 08:33:57 AM
David, can we find somewhere more info about Microsystems, we know they are profitable but it would be nice to have all the numbers or is that not possible?!

Btw, did you get an answer to your email from a few weeks ago?

No, no answer to my e-mail. And no insiders buying either.

The stock almost touched its 200 days moving average today.

I'll keep bringing more examples of stocks that went up a lot, then down to where they came from and a few years later are 10 bags or more above where all this action happened. Take the following chart for example:



The stock went up more than 150%, then a bad quarter and boom, down to values below where it all started. Can you imagine which stock is this, trading at $0.80 back then?

It's GIGM

So, that horrible earnings release that made the stock gap down 76% ... actually didn't mean much for the future.

CIMT is just a $17.76 M market cap company now. It sells its products in over 35 countries. What will it take to make it worth $100 M? Not much, I believe ... just some revenue growth and a few consecutive quarters of positive and growing EPS. I think the company put itself in a position for this to happen, let's see if they can execute.

Even considering that CIMT could eventually go to zero (I don't see it as possible, but for the argument's sake), the potential reward is so high that I believe it is worth the investment (of course, using a diversified strategy as the Main does).

I'll keep holding CIMT, nothing will make me sell this stock.

Quote from: David Randolph on June 22, 2007, 05:10:03 PM
I'll keep holding CIMT, nothing will make me sell this stock.

Sounds like an unhealthy obsession 

Really though, I hope Cimatron can produce the results necessary for some positive price movement though it may not happen within the time frame we would like it to.  In the meantime, the irresolute and poorly diversified CIMT shareholder will have some rough days.

As a side note, the whole "strong hands" / "weak hands" terminology seems terribly biased in implying that the "weak hands" have a character flaw and should have held out for something better.  As we all know, sometimes the weak hands make the optimal move by selling near the top or cutting their losses before things get worse.

Applause to David for his tenacity.  I think we're all striving to become disciplined and unbiased investors whose actions are ruled by logic and reality.

QuoteAs a side note, the whole "strong hands" / "weak hands" terminology seems terribly biased in implying that the "weak hands" have a character flaw and should have held out for something better.  As we all know, sometimes the weak hands make the optimal move by selling near the top or cutting their losses before things get worse.

Hi Kublakhan, thanks for your message. What "weak hands" means is people that hold a stock without knowing why (at least not very well), and therefore can be shaken out by an adverse market movement. Their confidence depends on what the market does on any given day, instead of the fundamentals of the company.

What I've been trying to demonstrate is that what a stock does on any given day or set of days isn't indicative of where the stock will be three years from now. Unfortunately the path to a higher price, especially on micro cap, thinly traded stocks like CIMT, isn't linear. You don't get daily reassurance that what you're doing is right.

QuoteApplause to David for his tenacity.  I think we're all striving to become disciplined and unbiased investors whose actions are ruled by logic and reality.

Thanks Kublakhan, that's what I'm doing, becoming more disciplined, despite doing it in a strange way for several people (and for myself too a few years ago).

The fundamental reasons that led me to invest in CIMT are even more evident now than what they were when I bought the stock at $2.90. I'm more certain of the future now than initially, because I see more than half of my projected revenue growth as "in the pocket".

Have a nice weekend

Quote from: David Randolph on June 22, 2007, 05:10:03 PM

I'll keep holding CIMT, nothing will make me sell this stock.

You mean nothing? even CIMT goes down to $0.80 cents like GIGM does way back in early 2002?

QuoteYou mean nothing? even CIMT goes down to $0.80 cents like GIGM does way back in early 2002?

As with GIGM, it wouldn't be nice to sell the stock at $0.80 with a huge percentage loss and then watch it go to $15 as fundamentals pointed all along.

At $0.8 CIMT would represent a negligible part of the portfolio, I would keep the stock if that were to happen. As I'll keep it if it goes to $5 overnight.

I see 0% dilution, 20% revenue growth, 15% net profit margin and 35 times earnings multiple and that means $24.45 price per share three years from now. The stock going up or down 50% from the current point doesn't mean anything for this outcome, as it happened with GIGM.

I noticed no one at the company owns any shares?
The value of CIMT at this moment is about $2.00.
If they have a good 2nd and 3rd quarter Then $3.00
If they return to profits like in the 2006 4th quarter then over $4.00
If the next quarter is worse then the first, then under $2.00
The main point is anyone buying in the low $2 should be ok.
This company has pretty much had the same revenues for the past 3 years, and there 4th quarter is usaully there best.

(As always, the seasonality of our business makes it
difficult to predict our future results. However, with industry-leading products,
thousands of satisfied customers, a great team and a streamlined organization, we
are optimistic regarding our long-term prospects.")

Don't know why everyone is so excited about this tiny company with 20 millions sales. Its a gamble on the next quarter.

Just watching this one.

Quote from: yukiii on June 23, 2007, 05:07:24 PM
I noticed no one at the company owns any shares? Where is there faith in the company.

Hello Yukiii, I like some of your posts, but I also think some of your posts are less than interesting. No worries there I am able to filter out the interesting from the other stuff.

This recent post of yours requires filtering big time. Your statment re ownership is totally incorrect. CIMT key directors (via 2 companies Koonras and DBSI) own 66% of CIMT share capital. It is clearly stated in the most recent 20F.

Anyways I haven't posted for a long time as I am busy elsewhere, but I still have a look at what's going on.

Cheers

Quote from: AussieTrader on June 24, 2007, 02:09:51 AM

Quote from: yukiii on June 23, 2007, 05:07:24 PM
I noticed no one at the company owns any shares? Where is there faith in the company.

Hello Yukiii, I like some of your posts, but I also think some of your posts are less than interesting. No worries there I am able to filter out the interesting from the other stuff.

This recent post of yours requires filtering big time. Your statment re ownership is totally incorrect. CIMT key directors (via 2 companies Koonras and DBSI) own 66% of CIMT share capital. It is clearly stated in the most recent 20F.

Anyways I haven't posted for a long time as I am busy elsewhere, but I still have a look at what's going on.

Cheers

Thanks for the info, I guess if I had money in this I would have known that.
Just did some quick research today before I went to the beach.


          Messrs. Ben Shalom, Ben Shaoul, Dotan and Lalo may be deemed to have beneficial ownership of an aggregate of 5,133,710 of our shares, representing 65.5% of our issued and outstanding capital share, by virtue of their positions with Polar and DBSI and the voting agreement between Koonras and DBSI described elsewhere in this report.

QuoteMessrs. Ben Shalom, Ben Shaoul, Dotan and Lalo may be deemed to have beneficial ownership of an aggregate of 5,133,710 of our shares, representing 65.5% of our issued and outstanding capital share, by virtue of their positions with Polar and DBSI and the voting agreement between Koonras and DBSI described elsewhere in this report.

Yes, insiders own the majority of CIMT. I won't sell CIMT whatever happens to the share price, because the potential far outweighs the risk in my opinion.

Nothing new today from a technical or fundamental standpoint. I'll keep holding CIMT. 

FYI

Shlomo Greenberg submits: Technical design software developer Cimatron Technologies (Nasdaq: CIMT) got a real jolt when in Monday's session, its volume rocketed 1,000 fold from 1,400 to 1.4 million shares and the stock, which reached $3.40, 145% higher than its level the day before, ended the session at $3.04, reflecting a 117% increase. Tuesday saw Cimatron begin the downslide back to normal values and, as usual, it will take some time until the stock feels, with the help of more intelligent investors obviously, that it has reached the right level at this point in time.

One of Israel's older publicly-traded software companies, Cimatron was founded at the beginning of the 1980s. The truth is that anyone who went through the results that the company unveiled on Monday won't understand why the stock should have climbed the way it did, but did anyone understand what happened back in November when Pointer Telocation Systems Ltd. (Nasdaq: PNTR) gained fivefold and more? The issue here is not the fact that Cimatron moved from a significant loss for 2005 to a slight profit for 2006. What should be asked now is whether this veteran player has finally found the right niche and path over on Main Street.

It will take another quarter and perhaps two until we finally learn whether Monday's monumental jump represented a genuine turnaround. While there had been initially been a long process of cost cutting, said former board chairman and current board member Yossi Ben Shalom, the most important thing now was the development of the company's new product. If a new product is indeed on the cards, then at the current price of $2.90, the stock is definitely worth checking out thoroughly.

As I am not much of an expert on computer assisted design or manufacturing, I would be happy to see some analyst research on the company, but this will be only forthcoming once the stock edges past the $5 level, or if the company commissions some research of its own, so I might as well try it out myself. I will have to rely on the statement by chairman Rimon Ben Shaoul, who said that after several years of streamlining and adding new product lines, the company is now finally back on track. I, for one, hope that is the case.

As regards the management team, CEO Danny Haran, who is a graduate of Comverse Technology Inc. (Pink Sheets: CMVT.PK), a company that has been an excellent school for many managers, looks like the right man for the job, and I know the company's CFO Ilan Erez from his time as CFO at Silicom Ltd. (Nasdaq: SILC), so investors are in good hands.

What caused Cimatron's stock to skyrocket? Nobody knows. Nevertheless, the company is worth a look if it really has a new product in the pipeline.

yukii - when was that written?

Both were written back in March

Part2
Shlomo Greenberg submits: Cimatron Technologies (CIMT) has gained 132% since the beginning of the month. Its current price, $3.20, represents a new high since the low it reached in 2002. The stock had actually been holding steady at $1.40 recently, and then it suddenly soared at the end of the first week of March. Cimatron, which specializes in industrial instrumentation, is one of the oldest Israeli companies on the stock exchanges in New York. The company develops and produces software for the manufacturing of devices used in the metalwork industries, from dies to numerical control software for machines.

Since I last wrote about this company, the stock has continued to rise strongly. What caused this surge? The reason apparently does not lie in the company's fantastic performance or anything like that. 2006 and its final quarter were "responsible" for the stock's initial climb at the end of the first week of the month, but after the initial excitement following the company's move from losses to an operating profit (it is still losing), it fell again to $2.60 from $3 at the beginning of the week. It then suddenly soared 27% to $3.30 following the announcement of the opening of two new offices in China.

At the beginning of the month Cimatron announced that it would be launching the new version of its CimatronE software for tool manufacturing, Version 8. From what I have read, this really is an advanced version which has won the company much praise on Main Street. Todd DeMint, lead designer at toolmaker Eimo Americas in Michigan said that "Version 8 gives us new tools in design and manufacturing," while industry analyst Alan Christman of CIMdata said that the release of the new software would change Cimatron's situation, for the better obviously.

The truth is that anyone who read the company's fourth quarter and 2006 reports would have seen that China is indeed the company's center of activity, and from what the company president said, it is obvious that the entry into China in order to grow together with the market there was a strategic decision. China, as it happens, has become the world leader in industrial tool design and production, and Cimatron's idea to operate there is perfectly logical.

Cimatron is a fairly small company by any criteria, and it has to exploit its technological edge (if indeed it has one) and rely on it in order to continue growing. The company's performance and the behavior of its stock since 1996 have not been exceptional to date, but perhaps everything is now beginning to happen. It's definitely worth checking out.

The new die design application ...



... and an easy 2nd quarter comparison are my hopes for this quarter.

In Q3 it will be easy to grow revenue and net income due to the Microstrategy acquisition.

I'll keep holding CIMT.

as long as the MACD HIST indicator on a weekly basis not is turning up i am not entering.....(Andreas Elder Living in a trading room using MACD HIst as most important indicator) also Terliso could sing a song about this indicator  ha ...ha..ha.

Quote from: ket1390 on June 27, 2007, 05:25:11 AM
as long as the MACD HIST indicator on a weekly basis not is turning up i am not entering.....(Andreas Elder Living in a trading room using MACD HIst as most important indicator) also Terliso could sing a song about this indicator  ha ...ha..ha.

I read Alexander Elder's "Trading for a Living" and "Come into my trading room" books several times when I had two or three years in the stock market. Then I wanted to learn some more.

In my personal opinion and experience technical indicators don't work over the long run. But a lot of people spend 40 years or more thinking that they do. So, good luck

Absolutely nothing happened in CIMT today. I prefer it this way, as the stock waits for a catalyst to move it one way or the other. From my fundamental study I believe Q2, but especially Q3 2007 will be quite positive quarters.