3SOF

Welcome back from what appears as a short vacation, David! I spent 3 days in Montreal and wish I had more time at hand. European vacations sound oh so sweet. The one you took is more of a US-type. I hope you had a good time to relax.

As for the PFSW, I agree it has a big up-potential and little to the downside, so I would like to hold it. $1.44 should serve as a good support for building a basis here. I just think that 45% is too much to let slip all together, although this should not happen to PFSW based on its fundamental value that we know.

Let's see if we win or get jilted again.

QuoteWelcome back from what appears as a short vacation, David! I spent 3 days in Montreal and wish I had more time at hand. European vacations sound oh so sweet. The one you took is more of a US-type. I hope you had a good time to relax.

Yep, great time, thanks berloga

QuoteAs for the PFSW, I agree it has a big up-potential and little to the downside, so I would like to hold it. $1.44 should serve as a good support for building a basis here. I just think that 45% is too much to let slip all together, although this should not happen to PFSW based on its fundamental value that we know.

Let's see if we win or get jilted again.

Yes, let's see what happens. We're at $1.53 now, so 53% profit so far.

You know, if one always gets nervous when with a 50% plus profit (thinking - "I should just bank it"), he should also consider that this way he will never have a 5 or 10 bagger (500% or 1000% profit). Never.

According to Peter Lynch, having a 10 bagger once in a while is what makes the difference between the average investor and the star investor. If you believe him and want to be a star, you need to believe that at least one or two of your stocks may very well be a 10 bagger, and be patient and hold on to it throughout all short term swings.

PFSW has a lot of potential, because it is a turnaround (but still young) story and it was trading at 1/10 of its annual sales. They just need a 3% net profit margin (which is still slim) to put the stock above $6, as we've seen, so ... let's hope our profits grow.

I'll keep holding PFSW.

And the damn pullback came

Was it predictable? Well, in a way, yes, no stock goes up in a straight line. But, when would it happen and at what exact price and at what price will it stop and reverse ... well, that's impossible to predict over the long term, as the chart gives too many false signals and fundamental analysis isn't exact and can't predict short term movements.

So I ignore short term fluctuations. I believe I'll have a better long term performance by ignoring them than by trying to catch the short term swings. 

I'll keep holding PFSW for the long term.

It's a big gain or nothing in PFSW, at least for me, off course everybody can play the stock as he or she wishes.

We've had a 50% Fibonacci retracement, which is perfectly normal (although unpredictable to when and at what price it will happen). I trust the fundamental turnaround and undervaluation of PFSW and I'll keep holding the stock for the long term.

I'm glad I wasn't around to see the weak hands selling PFSW at $1.20, what a shame selling this rock solid fundamental story:

«We believe this quarter was another solid step in the execution of our strategic plan to drive growth and improve financial performance by leveraging our world class technology and operational infrastructure across multiple channels. We have a good outlook for each of our businesses and I believe our overall financial health is rock solid.»

The best is clearly yet to come, because PFSW was priced for bankruptcy, not for strong growth and a "rock solid" financial condition. To be priced accordingly to fundamentals, at least $3 should be achieved immediately. $6 over the long term if everything plays out as expected.

I'll keep holding PFSW.

Hi David,

I noticed that PFSW in the past never passed the 0.30 in price/sales ratio.
Why do you think that in the near-medium term PFSW should go much higher than current levels?

Cheers

Quote from: terainvestment on September 12, 2007, 06:00:38 AM
Hi David,

I noticed that PFSW in the past never passed the 0.30 in price/sales ratio.
Why do you think that in the near-medium term PFSW should go much higher than current levels?

Cheers

That's a very good question terainvestment, thanks

You see, like any other company in the world, what PFSW wants is profits, not just growing sales. Unfortunately, in 9 years of financial history, PFSW never posted meaningful profits (it lost money in 7 years and made just $0.02 per share in 1999 and $0.01 per share in 2003).

This is why it always had a very low price to sales ratio, because the company couldn't turn a very high sales level into profits.

However, this is changing now, and the company posted the first profitable quarter going back six quarters in 2Q 2007. More importantly, there are clues this is just the start of strong profitability, just read the 2nd quarter conference call transcript here:

CONFENRENCE CALL TRANSCRIPT

So, the explanation to why I expect PFSW to trade at a higher than 0.3 sales multiple in the future is because I see the company turning profitable.

I'll keep holding PFSW for the long term.

Screening in the web I found this about the stock... sorry if I am out-of-date

PLANO, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 4, 2007--PFSweb, Inc. (NASDAQ: PFSW), a
global provider of business process outsourcing ("BPO") solutions for both
online and traditional commerce, today announced it has been named as one of
the "100 Great Supply Chain Partners" by Global Logistics and Supply Chain
Strategies (GL&SCS) magazine.

The GL&SCS 100 Great Supply Chain Partners program recognizes vendors and
service providers whose technology, logistics, transportation, or consulting
solutions have made a significant impact on a client's efficiency, customer
service, and overall supply chain performance.

"We are honored to be recognized as one of the 100 Great Supply Chain Partners
in the world," said Mike Willoughby, President of PFSweb's Services divisions.
"Currently, we operate two million square feet of global fulfillment and
logistics capacity supporting more than 40 clients. Our robust fulfillment and
logistics infrastructure and supporting supply chain technology combined with
our long-term experience as a leading BPO service provider provide a solid
foundation for continued growth in the future. We sincerely appreciate this
recognition from GL&SCS and we believe it further validates our position of
leadership in the growing global BPO space."

The GL&SCS "100 Great Supply Chain Partners" program is the result of a
six-month poll in which logistics and supply chain professionals are asked to
nominate technology suppliers who have significantly impacted their business.
The nominations are based on value and cost savings, reliability, performance,
knowledge base, and service and support. In 2007, more than 1,800 nominations
from small and large companies covering scores of different industries on five
continents were received. Over 350 vendors of every conceivable type of supply
chain activity were nominated -- from very specialized technologies, to global
third-party logistics providers to highly specialized transportation services.
The 100 companies that received the most qualified nominations were selected to
this year's list.

Additional information on Global Logistics & Supply Chain Strategies' list of
the Top 100 Great Supply Chain Partners is available at www.glscs.com.

QuoteScreening in the web I found this about the stock... sorry if I am out-of-date

Hi Rmagos, how are you?

That press release was out on the September 4th, but thanks for putting it here, I see I missed it on my daily updates.

There isn't much new to say about PFSW, as there weren't any news out.

As I read parts of the conference call transcript, I see a press release coming out soon, related to this:

«In last quarter's Conference Call I noted that we signed a letter of intent with a new client that is a major US retailer. And I'm pleased to announce as we anticipated that we've signed the contract and statement of work to provide product fulfillment and customer care services for this company's new online store initiative. However we've agreed with our client not to formally announce the identity of this new client until their site goes live. And currently we're planning to support the launch of this site in the third quarter of 2007, in other words towards the end of this quarter just in time for the 2007 holiday season. This latest addition to our growing portfolio of premiere direct to consumer clients helps confirm the validity of our goal to strengthen our presence in this online retail space.»

I expect PFSW to remain and grow its profitability from now on and to achieve a net profit margin of 3% over the long term. This company has 1,200 employees and everything to be a $300 M or more market cap company. Currently it is just a $59 M market cap.

I'll keep holding PFSW for the long term.

The following are significant changes from a profit perspective:

- «Net income was $154,000, or $0.00 per basic and diluted share, compared to a net loss of $3.2 million, or $0.07 per basic and diluted share, for the second quarter of 2006;»

- «Furthermore, Adjusted EBITDA grew from just $3,000 in the second quarter of 2006 to $3.4M in 2007.»

As for the future, management says ...

- «We have a good outlook for each of our businesses and I believe our overall financial health is rock solid. We believe we remain on track to meet our goal of consolidated annual revenue of $420 to $435 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $8 to $10 million in 2007."»

And, when asked about why not raise guidance, the CEO replied:



I think PFSW corrected with the general market but it is now ready to push higher again, moving towards $2 a share. The fundamental information we already have is enough to justify such a move, in my view.

I'll keep holding PFSW for the long term.

I'll patiently keep waiting for the following prediction to turn into reality:

QuoteI think PFSW corrected with the general market but it is now ready to push higher again, moving towards $2 a share. The fundamental information we already have is enough to justify such a move, in my view.

Hold PFSW.

I believe the CEO when he says: "We prefer to under promise and over deliver" because he said the eCost division would have $26 M revenue in the 2nd quarter and the actual number was $27.1 M.

After a natural correction I believe PFSW will move to new highs shortly.

I guess PFSW went down yesterday because Circuit City (down 18%), which is also an electronics products retailer, posted weaker than expected results. SYX also went down a bit because of this.

In my view these sellers don't have any merit, because PFSW is just a $60 M market cap company, much more dependent on its own intrinsic fundamental trends, which are positive.

I'll keep holding PFSW for the long term.

nice chart action for the weekend 

it sure was nice action in deed