3SOF

Why? on yahoo finance the historical Prices for FRPT start with Aug 14th?? What happened to Aug 15th-today??

FRPT: Short Interest DN 7.2% to 15.3M in Sep 2007
Tuesday , September 25, 2007 16:17ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Force Protection, Inc (NasdaqSC: FRPT) DECREASED 7.2% to 15,301,967 shares for the month ended mid-September, 2007.

SYMBOL    AUGUST       SEPTEMBER          CHANGE       %CHANGE            DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
FRPT          16,480,458      15,301,967      -1,178,491        -7.15%          17

Based on FRPT's 20-day average daily share volume of 903,010, it would require approximately 17 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.


beautiful chart:

from IV (mrzippy):
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey on FPI - Why the recent move

    We believe shares of FRPT have been strong recently due to the
positive potential impact of delays in the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle
(JLTV) program and expectations that fall MRAP contracts will be awarded
soon. Not only do we expect FRPT to be a significant beneficiary of
these fall MRAP awards, but we also believe there is a high probability
that the number of vendors supplying vehicles under MRAP will be
narrowed from 5 to 3 with FRPT playing a major role.

*
    Impact of JLTV Delay - According to InsideDefense.com, the
Pentagon recently decided to halt the competition for JLTV due to
skepticism about procurement strategy and timeline. In our opinion, this
move benefits FRPT in two ways. First, it likely extends the longevity
of the MRAP program which could mean MRAP production extends beyond
2008. Second, it allows more time for FRPT to complete the development
of its Cheetah vehicle, see it fielded domestically and internationally,
and continue the spiral development process to add capabilities.
Although Cheetah is not officially the JLTV, a delay in JLTV opens the
door for FRPT to begin capturing this market well before JLTV arrives.

*
    Fall Awards Could Come Soon - The military is well aware of the
six month lead time associated with materials procurement for MRAP
vehicles. With industry expected to run out of backlog in February or
March 2008, we expect the DoD to award relatively small contracts early
in October to keep production lines hot in March and April with
substantially larger awards in November after the FY08 supplemental is
approved. To date, orders for about 6,400 vehicles have been placed. In
October, we expect to see awards for 1,500 to 2,000 vehicles followed by
awards for 7,000 vehicles in November. As mentioned, we expect FRPT to
be a significant beneficiary of these awards.
*
    Narrowing of Competition Likely - With these new awards, we also
expect to see the competitive field narrowed to three vendors with FRPT
and Navistar likely as the dominant players followed by BAE as a smaller
third player. Consequently, FRPT's "market share" of MRAP should once
again increase, providing a significant positive catalyst for the stock.
We reiterate our Buy rating and recommend accumulating shares of FRPT
prior to these awards.

 

A Force To Be Reckoned With (FRPT)


Wednesday, September 26, 2007 17:24ET
Glenn Curtis

Aug 15, 2007 (Investopedia via COMTEX) -- Over the last several years, countless American and allied troops have been killed in the field by roadside bombs. Thankfully, countless other American and allied lives have also been saved thanks to a company called Force Protection (Nasdaq: FRPT ). You may have never heard of Force Protection, but the odds are good you have heard about or seen some of the items that the company makes. Force Protection operates behind the scenes, fashioning trucks with armored plating and other security features meant to weather IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices) and other man-made weapons of death. Every once in a while, the company will get a little bit of press, usually from an embedded journalist on a remote battlefield in Iraq or Afghanistan.

Forceful Fundamentals

The company recently turned in some pretty decent second quarter numbers, and on that note I think it deserves more than just a passing glance. The company generated $134.7 million in revenue, a roughly 140% increase over last year, and earned 14 cents per share during Q2. In addition, it managed to post a roughly 600 basis point improvement in gross margins thanks mostly to improved labor and material costs. Overall, it seemed to be a very solid quarter. The company has also reported some additional good news since its earnings were released on August 9. Force Protection has inked a contract with the U.S. Navy for 125 armored vehicles, said to be worth almost $70 million. Going forward, I suspect that Force Protection is likely to land similar contracts from both federal and state agencies.

More Than Just a Good Quarter

Of course there are other things that I like about the company. Over the past quarter the company was awarded contracts totaling $711 million to produce just over 1,400 security vehicles for the U.S. Marine Corps. The company is branching out internationally, where significant growth opportunities may lie. It announced its first Canadian contract, worth about $8.9 million, to produce armored and mine resistant vehicles for the Canadian Expeditionary Force Command. In July, the company was granted a $50 million credit facility by Wachovia Bank (NYSE: WB ) so it can continue to build its business and to help fill any voids caused by government payment schedules.

Future Earnings On Target

Based upon the recent inflow of business and expected shipments over the next year, Wall Street expects that the company will earn 63 cents per share this year and $1.42 per share in 2008. While it is a bit too early to say whether Force Protection can hit the 2008 target, I think it is a reasonable target given both the order volume and the improvement in margins the company has been experiencing. That said, there are still some big risks to this story. Governments are typically regarded as slow payers. Going forward, this could present the company with cash flow issues. Although, hopefully credit lines such as the one with Wachovia will help to alleviate any financial stress. As well, the defense industry is filled with deep-pocketed players such as General Dynamics (NYSE: GD ) who have a knack for garnering the biggest and the best government contracts.

The Bottom Line

Force Protection makes the stuff that our soldiers and security forces need to protect themselves. For this reason, I think the company is very well positioned for the future.

&

'Cheetah' Manufacturer to Bring 200+ Jobs to Roxboro

Posted: 19 minutes ago
Updated: 11 minutes ago

A military defense company manufacturing an armored car designed to counteract roadside bombs and minds will bring hundreds of jobs to Roxboro when it opens next month, company executives said Wednesday. South Carolina-based Force Protection will bring at least 270 jobs to the area, which, according to the North Carolina Employment Security Commission, has an unemployment rate of 6.9 percent.

County officials said the jobs are sorely needed.

"It's a real shot in the arm for our economy, as well as our county," said Person County Commissioner Larry Bowes.

The economy suffered about a year ago with manufacturer Collins and Aikman closed, leaving more than 800 people without a job, Bowes said. Force Protection is refurbishing the plant, which will be the only facility in the United States to build the Cheetah armored car.

"It feels very good, not just to be able to deliver a product that keeps our troops safe, but at the same time, to bring an employment opportunity to a county like this," said Dan Busher, Force executive vice president

Busher said he hopes the plant will be ready for limited production of the Cheetah by next month and that as many as 2,000 could be produced as early as next year. Force has already hired 12 people to work at the Roxboro facility. Company officials said they had 20 job interviews lined up for Wednesday..

    * Reporter: Beau Minnick
    * Web Editor: Kelly Gardner
link:
http://www.wral.com/news/local/story/1866279/
chart:

Looks like a breather, maybe argueing continuation next week. Here is some ammunition for next week.

Senate Passes MRAP Amendment, Bringing Funding to $28.2 Billion
DefenseAlert, Sept. 28, 2007 -- The Senate last night passed an amendment to the fiscal year 2008 defense authorization bill that calls for boosting spending on Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles to more than $28 billion.

http://defense.iwpnewsstand.com/

From Avoid to Long and Jaywalk also rates a buy now.

Market Edge - Second Opinion

Recommendation
 
Stock is a Buy; Stock is Overbought; Wait for pullback to initiate new position.

Comments

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend.
Chart pattern indicates a Strong Upward Trend.
Relative Strength is Bullish.
Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.
The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
The 200 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
Stochastics indicate stock is Overbought.

Looking for an entry point.  It may be too late with fall MRAP awards around the corner.  I will wait patiently.

Cheers,

Analyst Upgrades Force Protection
Monday October 1, 4:07 pm ET
Analyst Upgrades Force Protection to 'Outperform,' Expects Vehicle Orders to Rise

NEW YORK (AP) -- A Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst upgraded Force Protection Inc.'s stock Monday, saying he expects the U.S. and other governments to place more orders for the company's armored vehicles. Force Protection shares climbed 17.9 percent last week, rising with other defense stocks after Pentagon officials requested nearly $190 billion in military funding in 2008, $42 billion more than previous estimates. Of that $42 billion, $11 billion would be used to order 7,000 additional mine resistant ambush protected vehicles. On Wednesday, analyst Patrick McCarthy upgraded the stock to "Outperform" from "Market Perform," and lifted his target price to $25 from $18. He said the Defense Department will order 1,500 more mine resistant vehicles this year, giving Force Protection a total of 8,000 orders to fill.

"In the near term, we anticipate an MRAP vehicle contract for at least 465 vehicles, but based on the company's production potential, we also believe that number could be materially higher," he said.

The British government could order more than 80 Mastiff vehicles over the next few months, he added, on top of an existing order of 110 vehicles.

Force Protection shares rose $1.56, or 7.2 percent, to $23.22 Monday

Can anyone recommend books I can read so I can learn how to interprete the charts that are posted here?

I jumped in yesterday at 23.29; looking for new vehicle orders over the next couple months.

Cheers,

"Can anyone recommend books I can read so I can learn how to interprete the charts that are posted here?"

Go to your favorite book store and browse. There are different levels and styles depending on your background.

About contracts. An analyst quotes small contracts in October for continueing production so they can order supplies and materials that have a lead time. Larger contracts in November which could include MRAP II testing results. I am hoping first come first served meaning FRPT and NAVZ as their production schedules are in order and are ready for their next contract. As we wait to see the results of the LRIP contracts that BAE, AH, and GD got. PVI has not been quoted as delivered yet either (60 vehicles).

And today, assurances that the 11 billion 15,000 vehicle proposal will be in the continueing resolution appropriation.

While Biden's 25 billion dollar amendment has been approved by the senate, needs to pass the house and get included in the 2008 Fiscal budget.

Stalling the Supplementary budget to block funding does not seem to be an issue as 11 billion dollars will keep the DoD buying every vehicle they can produce for a while.

We have just formed a Golden Cross.

classical sell on the news action today:
Force Protection, Inc. Awarded Additional ILAV Vehicle Contract
Monday , October 08, 2007 08:30ET

LADSON, S.C., Oct 08, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Leading armored vehicle manufacturer Force Protection, Inc. (NASDAQ:FRPT) today announced that it has received a purchase order from BAE Systems for an additional 45 Iraq Light Armored Vehicles (ILAV). In addition to Iraq, approximately 18 of these vehicles are bound for Yemen. The order is worth an estimated $3.5 million and will be completed by February 2008. The combined enterprise of Force Protection and BAE Systems previously received awards totaling $180 million in 2006 to build 398 4x4 ILAVs, based on the proven design of the Cougar vehicle. In total, the contract authorizes production of up to 1,050 Cougar ILAVs. BAE Systems is prime contractor on the ILAV program, with Force Protection as subcontractor.
"We are pleased to continue to provide our life-saving blast protection technology in support of U.S. armed forces and their coalition partners," said Force Protection COO Raymond Pollard. "This new contract is further evidence of the many applications of our proven Cougar solution for American forces and their allies in the global war on terror." Force Protection's Cougar and Buffalo vehicles have an unmatched record of performance in Iraq and Afghanistan. They are the gold standard in troop safety and have protected thousands of troops during highly dangerous route clearance and explosive ordnance disposal operations since 2003.

&

U.K. to Buy 140 Armored Vehicles
Monday October 8, 6:12 pm ET
By Donna Borak, AP Business Writer
U.K. to Buy 140 Armored Vehicles for Soldiers in Iraq, Despite Plans to Withdraw 2,500 Troops

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The British government plans to buy 140 armored vehicles from Force Protection Inc. for its soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan.

On the same day Great Britain said it is negotiating with Force Protection to buy almost 12 dozen armor vehicles, Prime Minister Gordon Brown said his nation will reduce its presence in Iraq by half the next six months. Despite plans to bring home at least 2,500 soldiers by spring, "the safety and security of our armed forces remains our highest priority," Brown told the House of Commons Monday.

The British government has bought 100 mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicles from the Ladson, S.C.-based company.
At least 11 nations have shown interest in purchasing MRAPs from Force Protection, one of several vehicle manufacturers under contract with the U.S. Pentagon to deliver MRAPs to U.S. soldiers overseas, Michael Aldrich, a vice president for the company, told The Associated Press in an interview at an annual military trade show.
The company and its partner Fairfax, Va.-based General Dynamics have received contracts worth over $1 billion to build more than 1,900 MRAPS, designed with V-shaped hulls to protect soldiers from improved explosive devices. IEDs have become the scourge of soldiers on the ground in Iraq. are built with a V-shaped hull to protect against explosive devices. Armored vehicle-makers can expect a string of new orders from the Pentagon in the coming weeks following a decision by U.S. lawmakers to budget $5.2 billion for the MRAPs in a temporary spending bill.

Wall Street expects the Pentagon to order up to 1,500 vehicles in the near term with Force Protection likely to get a sizable share. Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Patrick McCarthy upgraded the company's stock to "Outperform" from "Market Perform" on anticipated orders and lifted his per-share price target to $25 from $18.

"We anticipate (an order for Force Protection of) at least 465 vehicles, but based on the company's production potential, we also believe that number could be materially higher," McCarthy wrote in a note to investors.

Separately, Force Protection said it received a $3.5 million order from the North American subsidiary of British defense conglomerate BAE Systems PLC for 45 light armored vehicles. Of those vehicles 18 will be delivered to Yemen by February 2008.

Still, the stock hasn't been doing all that well the past few months because competing MRAP makers are getting orders that some investors had thought would go to Force Protection.

Shares of Force Protection fell $2 or 8.3 percent to close at $22.10 Monday. In after-hours trading, the stock fell 10 cents to $22. The company's stock has been trading around $24 a share, a nearly 30 percent discount below its record high of $31.16 hit in May.

Nice rebound today!  Wow, that was fast.  I think we saw a lot of stops hit yesterday and folks away from their computers on the half holiday.  Looking forward to the upcoming weeks...

Cheers,

from IV:
A synopsis of Tuesday's action for those who are interested:

1- FRPT up 9.23%
---- bounce from yesterday, tea-cup making, news/orders anticipated, head and shoulders having, short covering – or countersuit of FRPT's lawsuit realized as frivolous --- or normal buying pressure after normal correction? (Thanks everyone) I think I got it all.

2- New short numbers

September End Month 2007

15,404,281
September Mid Month 2007
   
15,301,967

3- Jaywalk consensus up again                                                                                  

2.4....6 Buys/ 3 Holds and 1 sell

4- 20 dma crosses the 200 dma

Traditional def: A crossover involving a security's short-term moving average (such as 15-day moving average) breaking above its long-term moving average (such as 50-day moving average) or resistance level. As long-term indicators carry more weight, the Golden Cross indicates a bull market on the horizon and is reinforced by high trading volumes. Additionally, the long-term moving average becomes the new support level in the rising market.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAcourse/MovingAve.html

Look for "How are moving averages used" fyi –short read.


5- BAE and Navistar team up

SANTA CLARA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--October 09, 2007
BAE Systems and International Military and Government, LLC, an
affiliate of Navistar International Corporation, (OTC:NAVZ) will team
to produce a platform for the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV)
program.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=BW&date=20071009&id=7602089


6- A battle won.... But a war to fight

Basically talks of British politics and confirms the order of 140 Mastiffs and why it was put of until now (basically these type of vehicles will be military standards for future operations --- also mentions that they are looking into a smaller vehicle --- "possibly" the cheetah --- with a clarification on what actual vehicles they are looking at within 2-3 weeks and "action" on that very shortly afterwards... Short of it is there is a possibility of a sizable Cheetah order coming from the Britt's within the month.

http://defenceoftherealm.blogspot.com/2007/10/battle-won-but-war-to-fight.html