3SOF

Quote from: hyhl on October 12, 2007, 11:36:24 PM
From alexa.com, I can not see any improvement of ecost. I do doubt if the 3rd quarter earning will be good.

Quote from: tokyopua on October 13, 2007, 03:09:25 AM

Quote from: hyhl on October 12, 2007, 11:36:24 PM
From alexa.com, I can not see any improvement of ecost. I do doubt if the 3rd quarter earning will be good.

I own an online business and I can tell you that Alexa is not always well correlated with actual traffic levels.  Its just a rough estimate, not an exact science.  Further, turnover improvements can be achieved in many ways for the same level of traffic, even assuming that it has stayed the same.  Quality of traffic, layout changes in their site, pricing changes, etc. are all other very important factors that we cannot judge merely from looking at Alexa traffic ranks.

I agree with Tokyopua, and PFSW's management already said it is looking for less, but better costumers, to increase its profit margins:

«While our new customer count is down, the result is our losses are down. Our financial performance is improving as well because we're a lot more focused on being certain that we attract customers who will repeat buy and that we pay to acquire these customers in a manner that's profitable. So our focus is on producing an appropriate financial model out of the acquisition activity, not just driving top line growth. With this better information, we believe we're much better armed. Our marketing team's making great strides in driving site traffic and new customers in a manner that as I said makes long-term financial sense for us.

In the second quarter, eCOST had approximately 1.7 million total customers on the list. That compares to about a 1.6 million in the prior period a year ago. Active customers for the quarter ended June 30 were 231,600. That compared to 351,200 for the same period last year. However, that speaks to my point of more focused acquisition activity. New customers for the second quarter of 2007 totaled 25,400. That's versus 70,600 a year ago. But again, focus on the acquisition cost and the like value of the customers that we're acquiring. We believe we're being much smarter with that than we had been in the past.
For the 3 months ended June 30th, eCOST reported a total of 64,100 shipped. Our average order value was $422. That compares to 89,900 orders shipped in the second quarter of '06 and an average order value of $340. So as you can see the average order size is growing as we focus on different product sets and the deals that we're talking about going forward.

Ad expenses for the second quarter were $303,900. That compares to $986,300 for the second quarter of 2006, a pretty dramatic change, and as I mentioned a lot on the life value customer. The cost to acquire a new customer for the second quarter of 2007 was $9.76. That compared to $13.97 in the same period last year.»

As you can see, eCost's strategy is to have less but better costumers, to increase profit margins. The strategy seems to be working.

This way traffic measures to www.ecost.com are almost meaningless for the company's success.

Every online electronics retailer is moving higher lately, it is MALL, it is SYX and PFSW is just consolidating the 50% plus move it had. I believe the stock will make a bullish breakout of $1.59 over the medium term and I'll continue holding PFSW.

"because revenue can grow a lot more than the 10% I have in the model"  Vs
"eCost's strategy is to have less but better costumers, to increase profit margins."

So which will be increased? Revenue? profit margin? Both or neither?

no offense. Just want to elicit more discussion.

___________________________________________________________________________
But, if we make some more comparisons with IM, we see it is a $3.43 B market cap company, while PFSW is just $65 M, that is, IM is 53 times larger than PFSW. In terms of the number of employees of the two companies, IM has 13,700 and PFSW has 1,200. Using this metric IM is 11.4 times larger.

What I mean is, even if PFSW never achieves a 3% net profit margin as I have in my valuation model, it can still be a much larger than $65 M company, because revenue can grow a lot more than the 10% I have in the model (ecost.com revenues grew 25% in just one quarter).

As you can see, eCost's strategy is to have less but better costumers, to increase profit margins. The strategy seems to be working.

Thanks!

Quote from: tokyopua on October 13, 2007, 03:09:25 AM

Quote from: hyhl on October 12, 2007, 11:36:24 PM
From alexa.com, I can not see any improvement of ecost. I do doubt if the 3rd quarter earning will be good.

I own an online business and I can tell you that Alexa is not always well correlated with actual traffic levels.  Its just a rough estimate, not an exact science.  Further, turnover improvements can be achieved in many ways for the same level of traffic, even assuming that it has stayed the same.  Quality of traffic, layout changes in their site, pricing changes, etc. are all other very important factors that we cannot judge merely from looking at Alexa traffic ranks.

QuoteSo which will be increased? Revenue? profit margin? Both or neither?

no offense. Just want to elicit more discussion.

Yeah, sure, thanks for expressing your doubts

I think both will increase, revenue and profit margin. That was what happened in Q2 2007 when compared to Q1 2007, with revenue rising 3.82% (about 15% annualized) and gross margin increased to 10.96% from 9.56%. Net profit margin increased to a positive 0.14% from -2.26%.

This is meaningful improvement on a sequential basis. With the strongest part of the year coming up, in terms of seasonality, I don't see why this trend shouldn't continue.

My investment is based on the thesis that Q2 2007 marked the beginning of a fundamental turnaround for PFSW as a whole. The market, after some time, agreed with this view. Now we'll see if the turnaround gets momentum or else it stalls. I'll take appropriate action as I see the numbers coming in, but for now I'm a believer that higher revenues and higher profits are coming for PFSW and hence a higher share price.

I'll keep on holding PFSW for the long term.

(keep them coming hyhl, thanks )

Thank you, David!

I think the 3rd quarter results may not be good. But we should focus on the guidance of the 4th quarter. 

So there won't be any preliminary results released for the 3rd quarter?



Our July activity was solid again on the eCOST side. So at this point, I think we've got you know, a reason to believe that we've got a solid base underneath this and we should continue to accelerate from there. I would expect that you know, in the third quarter, the summer's a little bit softer so I don't know that I'm going to sit here and say we're going to do 35 million in the third quarter. I don't think I'd expect that activity. I am optimistic about where we're at with the fourth quarter.

Is microlife "a major US retailer" ? I have never heard of it.




___________________________________________________________________________
In last quarter's Conference Call I noted that we signed a letter of intent with a new client that is a major US retailer. And I'm pleased to announce as we anticipated that we've signed the contract and statement of work to provide product fulfillment and customer care services for this company's new online store initiative. However we've agreed with our client not to formally announce the identity of this new client until their site goes live. And currently we're planning to support the launch of this site in the third quarter of 2007, in other words towards the end of this quarter just in time for the 2007 holiday season.

QuoteThank you, David!

I think the 3rd quarter results may not be good. But we should focus on the guidance of the 4th quarter.

Yes, if the 3rd quarter is better than the 2nd, as I think it will be, that's going to be good enough, if the 4th quarter guidance is positive, which there are no doubts it will be, due to seasonal factors.

QuoteIs microlife "a major US retailer" ? I have never heard of it.

Me either. I wonder if Microlife is "the major US retailer" they referred to at the conference call, good point hyhl.

Once in my investment career I made the mistake of thinking:

«I like this company on a long term basis, but I know the next quarter will be weak due to seasonal and other factors, so I'll wait to buy on that weak quarter news, hopefully at a lower price».

The end result of this thinking was that I lost a 100% advance. The stock was MCZ.

So I'll never again look at just the next quarter, I'll consider only the long term trend in fundamentals.

I'll continue holding PFSW for the long term.

New out, this is actually exactly the kind of thing I was talking about earlier in this thread that can help them make more $ off of the same amount of traffic.

------------------------
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071017/20071017005387.html?.v=1
------------------------

eCOST.com Launches Enhanced Catalogue Search Capability
Wednesday October 17, 8:00 am ET 
Powerful search merchandising tool to improve site search navigation for peak holiday shopping season


EL SEGUNDO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--eCOST.com, a wholly owned subsidiary of PFSweb, Inc. (Nasdaq: PFSW - News), and a leading multi-category online discount retailer of brand-name technology and consumer electronics, today announced the launch of a new catalogue search platform powered by Visual Sciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: VSCN - News), a leading provider of real-time analytics applications, that optimizes return customers' shopping experiences. The catalogue search platform provides a powerful search merchandising tool for eCOST.com customers in preparation of the holiday shopping season.
ADVERTISEMENT


By leveraging Visual Sciences' site search solution, eCOST.com will have the ability to both help navigate return customers through the site and optimize the search function of eCOST's entire product catalogue, based on the individual preferences of shoppers. The Visual Sciences' site search solution fully enhances each customer's product search by aligning the presentation of products and content based on search term(s) used, displaying results based on the type of search performed, and providing shoppers with personalized alerts for new merchandise and deals available on the eCOST.com website.

Gary Guy, President of eCOST.com, stated, "The launch of our new catalogue search platform is just one more step in making our site more user friendly. We believe this site enhancement will drive sales growth and improve visitor to order conversion ratios as well as customer retention. This advanced search capability is increasingly necessary as we continue to expand the number of products available on eCOST.com, currently exceeding 100,000 SKUs."

"Over the past year, we have implemented major advancements to the eCOST.com website through our strategic agreements with Visual Sciences and Etilize."

About Visual Sciences

Founded in 1996, Visual Sciences, Inc. (formerly known as WebSideStory, Inc.) (NASDAQ: VSCN - News) is a leading provider of real-time analytics applications. The company's analytics applications, based on its patent pending on-demand service and software platform, enable fast and detailed analytics on large volumes of streaming and stored data. More than 1,590 enterprises worldwide rely on the answers delivered by these applications to provide them with actionable intelligence to optimize their business operations. The company provides real-time analytics applications for web sites, contact centers, retail points-of-sale, messaging systems and the intelligence community. In addition, the company's line of analytics-driven offerings leverages its analytics technology to automatically optimize Web sites and related marketing applications. Visual Sciences flexible technology platform, Visual Sciences Technology Platform 5(TM), allows the company to rapidly introduce tailored solutions to meet its clients' needs. Visual Sciences is headquartered in San Diego, Calif., and has East Coast offices in Herndon, Virginia and a European headquarters in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. For more information, contact Visual Sciences. Voice: 858.546.0040. Fax: 858.546.0480. Address: 10182 Telesis Court, 6th Floor, San Diego, CA 92121. Web site: www.visualsciences.com. Visual Sciences is a registered trademark of Visual Sciences, Inc.

About PFSweb, Inc.

PFSweb develops and deploys integrated business infrastructure solutions and fulfillment services for Fortune 1000, Global 2000 and brand name companies, including third party logistics, call center support and e-commerce services. The company serves a multitude of industries and company types, including such clients as LEGO, Riverbed, Fathead, CHiA'SSO, MARS Drinks North America (formerly FLAVIA® Beverage Systems), Hewlett-Packard, International Business Machines, Hawker Beechcraft Corp. (formerly Raytheon Aircraft Company), Rene Furterer USA, Roots Canada Ltd. and Xerox.

Through its wholly owned eCOST.com subsidiary, PFSweb also serves as a leading multi-category online discount retailer of high-quality new, "close-out" and manufacturer recertified brand-name technology and consumer electronics for consumers and small to medium size business buyers. The eCOST.com brand markets approximately 110,000 different products from leading manufacturers such as Sony, JVC, Canon, Hewlett-Packard, Denon, Onkyo, Garmin, Panasonic, Toshiba and Microsoft primarily over the Internet and through direct marketing.

To find out more about PFSweb, Inc. (NASDAQ: PFSW - News), visit the company's websites at http://www.pfsweb.com and http://www.ecost.com.

The matters discussed herein include forward-looking information under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 which is subject to and involves risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. PFSweb's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2006 and Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2007 identify certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in any forward looking statements made and investors are advised to review the Annual and Quarterly Reports and the Risk Factors described therein. These Risk Factors include the risk of contract terminations. PFSweb undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statement for any reason, even if new information becomes available or other events occur in the future. There may be additional risks that we do not currently view as material or that are not presently known.



Contact:
PFSweb, Inc.
Laura Osborne, 972-881-2900 x3574
Corporate Communications Manager
[email protected]
or
Investors:
KCSA Worldwide
Todd Fromer, 212-896-1215
[email protected]
or
Garth Russell, 212-896-1250
[email protected]

The stock was MCZ. 

   What do you think of MCZ now? I think it still has good chance to go beyond $2 by early next year.

Me either. I wonder if Microlife is "the major US retailer" they referred to at the conference call, good point hyhl.

I think there should be a real "major US retailer" news coming soon. Microlife can not be viewed as a US company. Not a retailer at all!  So the site is still not ready for the holiday season? 
until their site goes live
in other words towards the end of this quarter just in time for the 2007 holiday season

Quote from: David Randolph on October 17, 2007, 07:48:37 AM

QuoteThank you, David!

I think the 3rd quarter results may not be good. But we should focus on the guidance of the 4th quarter.

Yes, if the 3rd quarter is better than the 2nd, as I think it will be, that's going to be good enough, if the 4th quarter guidance is positive, which there are no doubts it will be, due to seasonal factors.

QuoteIs microlife "a major US retailer" ? I have never heard of it.

Me either. I wonder if Microlife is "the major US retailer" they referred to at the conference call, good point hyhl.

Once in my investment career I made the mistake of thinking:

«I like this company on a long term basis, but I know the next quarter will be weak due to seasonal and other factors, so I'll wait to buy on that weak quarter news, hopefully at a lower price».

The end result of this thinking was that I lost a 100% advance. The stock was MCZ.

So I'll never again look at just the next quarter, I'll consider only the long term trend in fundamentals.

I'll continue holding PFSW for the long term.

Quote What do you think of MCZ now? I think it still has good chance to go beyond $2 by early next year.

Hi hyhl, I recently wrote an analysis for MCZ with my current thoughts, please check it out ...

MCZ analysis

... and then tell me what's going to take it to $2. Thank you

QuoteSo the site is still not ready for the holiday season?

I guess that's it, we'll probably know just at the next conference call.

We've had this press release yesterday, which Tokyopua posted:

• eCOST.com Launches Enhanced Catalogue Search Capability
Business Wire (Wed 8:00am)

It looks like they're working well, and investing, so they're confident about eCost's outlook. I wonder if they won't change the website's design, I really dislike it, what are those blank spaces in the homepage? Is it just me or the homepage design is ugly?

Anyway, it isn't just design that makes a great business and eCost's sales have been rising meaningfully.

Someone sold a few shares right at the close and that took the stock down from $1.37 to $1.32, closing down 2.2% on the day. It wouldn't surprise me to see it go back up to $1.37 today, also with low volume. It seems like the stock is waiting for the 50 days SMA before rising, which currently stands at $1.27.

I'll keep holding PFSW for the long term.

2) Revenue CAGR

Since revenue in the fiscal 1st quarter of 2007 fell 19.6% from the year ago levels, I think revenues will be about 15 - 20% lower three years from now than what they were in fiscal 2007. This means fiscal 2010 revenue of about $85 M and 0.95 as revenue CAGR in the valuation model.


Since Real World Golf is released in the 1st quarter of 2006, the revenue in that quarter becomes much larger than other 1st quarters.  I do not think it is legitimate to predict revenue drop in the following years based on the revenue "drop" in the 1st quarter of 2007.


I think the most important thing for a penny stock like MCZ is whether it has some nice story.  In response to the recent console transition (Wii, PS3, XBOX360),  the game industry has experienced significant growth this year. Thus I do not think MCZ's revenue will go down in the 3rd and 4th quarters. In addition, after the new CFO started his position, MCZ eliminated less profitable product, and added higher margin products.  Just like PFSW,  MCZ will have a positive earning in the 3rd quarter, accompanied by a rosy guidance for the 4th quarter.  Such an earning news plus the news on the general game market  are enough to push MCZ to $2 around the end of this year.

You may check the chart on GME and NTDOY. The market favors large caps in the 3rd quarter. Now it is small cap's turn to shoot up.

I am not sure MCZ's long term trend.  Long term wise, PFSW is a much better company.   

Quote from: David Randolph on October 18, 2007, 06:46:49 AM

Quote What do you think of MCZ now? I think it still has good chance to go beyond $2 by early next year.

Hi hyhl, I recently wrote an analysis for MCZ with my current thoughts, please check it out ...

MCZ analysis

... and then tell me what's going to take it to $2. Thank you

QuoteSo the site is still not ready for the holiday season?

I guess that's it, we'll probably know just at the next conference call.

We've had this press release yesterday, which Tokyopua posted:

• eCOST.com Launches Enhanced Catalogue Search Capability
Business Wire (Wed 8:00am)

It looks like they're working well, and investing, so they're confident about eCost's outlook. I wonder if they won't change the website's design, I really dislike it, what are those blank spaces in the homepage? Is it just me or the homepage design is ugly?

Anyway, it isn't just design that makes a great business and eCost's sales have been rising meaningfully.

Someone sold a few shares right at the close and that took the stock down from $1.37 to $1.32, closing down 2.2% on the day. It wouldn't surprise me to see it go back up to $1.37 today, also with low volume. It seems like the stock is waiting for the 50 days SMA before rising, which currently stands at $1.27.

I'll keep holding PFSW for the long term.

I bought PFSW at $1.32 yesterday. I will add more if it gets under $1.3. This one is a 3-bagger for those patient investors. Who would have thought that BIDU would go from $80 to almost $400?? Timing is the key for those who maximize returns......buy at the very low and sell near the highs

Thanks for your views on MCZ hyhl

There weren't any news out for PFSW, just the fact that the stock closed 3.8% higher than the price someone dumped shares on Wednesday just before the close.

I'll continue holding PFSW for the long term.

PFSW's revenue in 2001 was $28 M and in 2006 it was $423 M. This means 72% revenue CAGR, which is very impressive growth, much higher than the 10% I have in my valuation model.

With 1,200 employees and continuing to grow its head count, PFSW doesn't look like a $63 M business. I believe the stock will rise over the long term, reflecting the true value of the company and I'll keep holding it.

PFSW reacted well after touching the 50 days SMA support. As I was looking at www.ecost.com I thought those prices were really attractive and thought I could buy a new computer there ... but unfortunately:

«At this time, eCOST.com does not accept orders shipping to addresses outside of the U.S. and Canada. We define it as an international order when the order is to ship to an address outside the 50 United States of America or Canada. We do accept international credit cards for shipments within the 50 United States of America.»

With the Euro currency so strong things in USD are really cheap. However, things are getting more expensive here at home, since my income comes in USD and they're worth less and less. But it doesn't bother me at all, as I have other sources of income.

Going back to PFSW ... nothing new, I'll continue holding the stock for the long term.