3SOF

CSIQ is breaking out.  Most likely getting lift from FSLR's earnings.  I still think CSIQ has a "bright" future.   

CSIQ just reported great earnings.

Solar will continue to be hot into 2008


Canadian Solar Reports Third Quarter 2007 Results
Wednesday November 14, 7:00 am ET
-- Q3 net revenues of $97.4 million, a 61% increase over Q2 net revenues of $60.4 million
-- Q3 earnings per diluted share of $0.02 compared to Q2 loss per diluted share of $0.11
-- Full year 2007 net revenue guidance increased to $285-$295 million from previous guidance of $255-$265 million
-- Full year 2008 net revenue expected to be $650-$750 million and shipments expected to be 200-220MW

JIANGSU, China, Nov. 14 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Canadian Solar Inc. ("the Company," "CSI," or "we") (Nasdaq: CSIQ - News) today reported its preliminary unaudited US GAAP financial information for the third quarter of 2007 ended September 30, 2007.

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Net revenues for the quarter were $97.4 million, including $3.8 million of silicon material sales, compared to net revenues of $17.8 million for the third quarter of 2006 and $60.4 million for the second quarter of 2007. Net revenues for the second quarter of 2007 included $2.7 million of silicon material sales. Net income for the quarter was $0.5 million, or $0.02 per diluted share, compared to net income of $0.24 million, or $0.01 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2006 and net loss of $2.9 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2007. Excluding share-based compensation expenses of $2.4 million, non-GAAP net income for the quarter would have been $3.0 million, or $0.11 per diluted share.

Dr. Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO of CSI, commented: "Q3 was another strong quarter for us as we achieved revenues above our guidance for the second quarter in a row. Our return to profitability was achieved through continued sales momentum, improved production yields, better inventory controls, improved cash management and stable pricing. As a result, we were able to increase our product shipments and improve our profit margins as forecast despite modest price increases in materials from some suppliers. Our second 25MW solar cell manufacturing line is now operating at full production capacity. In addition, we have completed the installation of our third and fourth lines, and expect to bring our total internal solar cell manufacturing capacity to 100MW starting next month. During the quarter, we also added new members to our Board of Directors and expanded our executive management team to help manage the next phase of our growth. Our strengthened supply situation and execution have led to increased confidence in our forecasts for revenue growth and margin improvement in Q4 and 2008."

Bing Zhu, CFO of CSI, noted: "As expected, our gross margins improved in Q3 due to the combination of continued sales growth and effective cost controls, as well as our increased in-house solar cell manufacturing capability. Our current progress in Q4 gives us confidence that we will be able to continue our pace of growth and profitability improvement in 2008."

Whoa nelly.  I knew I liked this one more, why didn't I make the move?  Ahhhhh.

Oh well, I expect a similar fate for SOLF.  Their production levels are expected to be at the levels of companies trading in the market cap range of 3-4 ish billion whereas SOLF's market cap. is $600 million.  SOLF is performing well today in sympathy with CSIQ. 

CSIQ knocked the cover off the ball and is being rewarded handsomely.  CSIQ 16.07 + 4.83 (42.97%)

Yes...I knew this one too.  They had all those contracts lined up...but never jumped in.


I think our SOLF will do well...and ASTI.

I need to pick some of CSIQ.  I'll use this market weakness to buy some in the next week.  Take a look at the guidance for revenues 2008 ($650-750 million)


Canadian Solar Inc.'s (CSIQ) third-quarter net income more than doubled to $522,000, or 2 cents a share from $239,000, or 1 cent a share, a year-earlier.
The Jiangsu, China, solar module maker said net revenue soared to $97.4 million from $17.8 million a year ago.
On average, analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected a loss of 2 cents a share on revenue of $83 million.
The company has increased its full-year net revenue guidance to $285 million to $295 million from its previously issued guidance of $255 million to $265 million.
For the fourth-quarter, Canadian Solar expects net revenue of $110 million to $120 million and non-GAAP operating income of $8 million to $8.5 million.
For 2008, the company expects net revenue of $650 million to $750 million.

Jumped in this morning.

Applaud ksl.  This seems like a total no brainer. 

(CSIQ)
Canadian Solar Earnings Display
Growing Top Line
The solar industry has seen somewhat of a haircut following
news reports regarding the elimination of many alternate energy
initiatives from the energy bill which is currently being drafted.
At the heart of debate is whether Republicans and the White House will sign
off on the tax incentives for renewable energy while many incentives are being
stripped back from oil, gas, and coal companies.
With politics heading into an election year, Democrats and Republicans alike have to please their
constituents and financial supporters with this bill and its looking like the Republicans won't allow
tax incentives for renewables become financed by stripping them from the fossil fuel industry.
While the American market only accounts for 10% of the overall solar market, the bill had many
solar names experiencing pullbacks from all time highs. One name, however, did the opposite of
many in the industry.
Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ) is a vertically integrated manufacturer of solar cell, solar module and
custom-designed solar application products serving customers worldwide. CSI is incorporated in
Canada and conducts all of its manufacturing operations in China.
On Wednesday, the Company reported their earnings which, over the last three days, have caused
shares to run from the $10.50 area on Tuesday to highs in the $17.50 range on Thursday.
Net revenues for the quarter were $97.4 million compared to net revenues of $17.8 million for the
third quarter of 2006 and $60.4 million for the second quarter of 2007. Year over year, the gain was
almost 450%. Quarter over quarter, the increase was 61%.
Excluding share-based compensation expenses of $2.4 million, non-GAAP net income for the quarter
would was $3.0 million, or 11c per diluted share. The earnings were an 83% surprise compared
to analysts' consensus estimates.
The Company also guided for revenue in the fourth quarter of $110 million to $120 million with
operating income in the $8 million to $8.5 million range. For 2007, the Company expects $255 million
to $265 million in revenue. But the kicker was 2008 revenue guidance. Next year the Company
expects net revenue to be between $650 million and $750 million. The growth would be between
155-180% year over year.
Dr. Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO of CSIQ, commented in the press release, "The third quarter
was another strong quarter for us as we achieved revenues above our guidance for the second
quarter in a row. Our return to profitability was achieved through continued sales momentum, improved
production yields, better inventory controls, improved cash management and stable pricing.
As a result, we were able to increase our product shipments and improve our profit margins as
forecast despite modest price increases in materials from some suppliers. Our second 25MW solar
cell manufacturing line is now operating at full production capacity. In addition, we have completed
the installation of our third and fourth lines, and expect to bring our total internal solar cell manufacturing
capacity to 100MW starting next month. Our strengthened supply situation and execution
have led to increased confidence in our forecasts for revenue growth and margin improvement in
the fourth quarter and 2008."
What's separated the Company from many of the other solar names is that they did 0 business in
North or South America. Their main market is Europe where 95% of their revenues derived. The
remainder stemmed from Asia.
The Company noted that they expect to bring solar cell manufacturing up to 100MW next month, but
expect to expand it even further to 250MW by the summer of 2008. By January of 2008 they expect
to bring their total annual solar module production capacity to 400MW and by the summer of 2008
they expect an annual solar wafer capacity of 40-60MW.
With the expansion of their production capacity and already record high sales numbers, an increased
top line is almost certain. With increased efficiency in production, cost per watt will also
decrease, and with the increased demand worldwide the name is certainly one to follow over the
coming months. Investors would be wise to watch.

Another Contract...

Canadian Solar to Deliver 60MW Solar modules for Projects in Spain
Friday November 16, 7:48 am ET

JIANGSU, China, Nov. 16 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Canadian Solar Inc. ("the Company'', or ''CSI'') (Nasdaq: CSIQ - News) announced that it has signed a new contract with German City Solar Group to deliver 60MW of solar modules for a series of solar power station projects in Spain. Shipment will start immediately. Installations are expected to be completed by the Summer of 2008.

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CSI has recently completed the delivery of 11.7 MW solar modules to City Solar for three large-scale solar power projects in Germany. The new 60 MW contract will expand the collaborations between the two companies from Germany to Spain, one of the fastest growing and strategically most important solar markets in the world.

CSI expects to introduce its PC200 new module type with City Solar. This new module product is capable of delivering 200-240W of output per unit and is specially designed to promote the maximum performance of City Solar's state- of-arts solar tracker systems.

Dr. Shawn Qu, CEO of CSI, commented, ''The expansion of our collaboration with City Solar is the latest example of the repeat orders we are winning from key customers in an important market segment. The combination of CSI's high- performance modules in City Solar system designs and project management has quickly gained market recognition for our two companies as one of the top- notch one-stop shopping solutions for high performance solar power plants.''

Mr. Steffen Kammler, CEO of City Solar, AG, commented, ''City Solar is one of the leading solar plant project management companies in Europe. City Solar's vast experience in large-scale solar plant project development, planning, implementation and financing arrangement has brought turn-key solutions to commercial renewable energy investors. We have developed unique solar tracking technologies to maximize solar module performance. We have so far implemented several solar farm projects in Germany using CSI modules and we are much impressed by CSI's superior module quality, after service technical support and its highly efficient and effective management team. We will continue to work closely with Canadian Solar for our future projects.''

I think shorts you've gathered over the past few days might fuel a run to 20 today.  So bullish.

There is excellent DD on CSIQ all over the net. . . I'm convinced I need to have some.

I'm almost fully invested so need to sell something to obtain CSIQ but this is undeniable for me.  I'm also very impressed with WFR. 

CSIQ and SOLF are the best values I can think of in the market.  Combination of value and growth is unbelievable.  These stocks may have long corrections along the way as I'm sure shorts will try to attack solar names but these stocks will always rebound.  The growth is astonishing, and people are starting to become keen to this fact.  SOLF and CSIQ will both likely make more than $1 a share, so they are trading in the forward PE range of 15-18.  This is crazy to me.  I think 40 or 50 sounds more reasonable, honestly. 

Long CSIQ at 15.74.

I made a little chart with TSL, SOLF and CSIQ and some metrics I deem important for a basic analysis.  CSIQ looks by far the cheapest on a revenue basis and SOLF looks the cheapest on an EPS basis. 

I believe we will break out of this triangle to the upside.  Volume will increase, I think probably to the levels of ER and price should creep into the $20s.  Fundamental analysis certainly indicates it will.  This consolidation has been perfect for a move to new highs.  Momentum traders may be looking for the next big mover when they feel most of the others are overheated. 

On a side note, we haven't talked about LDK at all, it is looking very good. 

Quote from: bjc on December 03, 2007, 05:10:58 PM
I believe we will break out of this triangle to the upside.  Volume will increase, I think probably to the levels of ER and price should creep into the $20s.  Fundamental analysis certainly indicates it will.  This consolidation has been perfect for a move to new highs.  Momentum traders may be looking for the next big mover when they feel most of the others are overheated. 

On a side note, we haven't talked about LDK at all, it is looking very good. 

BJC...funny...I was just going to post on CSIQ.
  Hope you don't mind if I add a few details.

CSIQ...just announced a stock offering worth $75 million last week.  This has caused some weakness the last couple of sessions...even though it finished positive today.  (mainly I believe because of SOLF's spectacular run)

CSIQ is only a $400 million market cap company...but take a look at what they expect going forward from their earnings release in mid-November.

"The construction of our new Changshu solar module plant is currently on schedule. We expect the new plant, which will have 24,000 square meters of production and training space, to open in January 2008, bringing our total annual solar module production capacity to 400MW.

    We have commenced work on two new projects:
    -- Expansion of our solar cell manufacturing capacity from 100MW to 250 MW.
       We expect to complete this project by the summer of 2008; and
    -- Construction of a solar ingot and wafer plant in the City of Luoyang,
       China.  We expect to complete Phase One of this project by the summer
       of 2008, which will give us an annual solar wafer capacity of 40-60MW.

Outlook

Dr. Qu continued: "We recently announced sales contracts in Spain, the U.S. and Germany, all of which are important solar industry growth markets. Customer demand remains strong and our operational structure is now much leaner. We are positioned for further growth as we demonstrate the successful leveraging of our operating model."

Based on current market conditions, our order backlog and our production capacity, we are increasing our prior guidance of net revenues for the full year 2007 to $285-$295 million from the previous guidance of $255-$265 million. The total annual shipments are expected to be about 80MW, including some OEM tolling business.

Net revenue for the fourth quarter of 2007 is expected to be $110-$120 million, with non-GAAP operating income, determined by excluding share based compensation expenses expected to be in the range from $8.0-$8.5 million. Shipments for the fourth quarter of 2007 are expected to be approximately 35 MW.

Based on current customer orders and market forecasts, we expect net revenue for 2008 to be $650-$750 million. The Company intends to continue its long-term supply chain strategy, which combines internal solar wafer and cell production and direct purchasing from a selected number of long-term strategic wafer and cell suppliers. The Company believes that it has contractually secured 90% of its silicon or cell requirements to support module production of 200-220MW in 2008. The Company continues to evaluate new technologies, including the use of metallurgical silicon (UMG) products, which, if successful, would have the potential to increase total shipments by 30-40MW in 2008.