3SOF

Quote from: soxguy on December 05, 2007, 03:43:46 PM
ASTI mentioned in the WSJ this afternoon saying two insiders sold stock on Dec.3. Pretty big sell off for that?

No, those insiders sold an insignificant amount of shares. One sold 5,000 shares he bought at $2.73 on his employee incentive plan. The other sold 9,500 shares due to his Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (this insider still owns 1,378,000 ASTI shares).

I think the reason why ASTI is down 9% today is because yesterday's rise was without merit. People buying yesterday were buying for the wrong reasons and they're being punished today. Longer term nothing changed.

On Tuesday the fast money entered ASTI for the wrong reasons (an energy bill, that is, potential subsidies for the alternative energy sector) and it left yesterday. Good.

I believe ASTI will rise 30 fold for its own intrinsic reasons, not because the group is hot, not because of politics, but because it has a superior technology and a $100 B plus partner to market its products.

Over the short term I think ASTI should double because it is too cheap, considering its $138 M cash pile (after the Warrants B conversion, which I believe is happening now and will be complete before the end of 2007).

David: at what year you are forecasting the 30-fold increase in price?

30-fold would be an astounding result, with a final market cap of 4 Bln/$ if I am not wrong...

Quote from: terainvestment on December 06, 2007, 08:10:34 AM
David: at what year you are forecasting the 30-fold increase in price?

30-fold would be an astounding result, with a final market cap of 4 Bln/$ if I am not wrong...

2011 - 2012. 

Energy Bill Compromises Begin to Heat Up
Friday , December 07, 2007 17:34ET

On Thursday, the House of Representatives passed the much anticipated and debated energy bill which was subsequently blocked by the Senate and even drew the promise of a veto if it happened to reach the President's desk.  At odds were a couple of measures which have the greater good of the environment at heart but which could also be too much of a financial burden for the American public to bear. The whole idea is to reduce the amount of dependency on foreign, $90 a barrel oil and protect the environment for future generations.

The bill would strip tax cuts for oil and gas companies and would effectively add $21 billion in taxes to these companies. It would mandate that electric utilities generate 15% of their power from alternate sources, such as wind, water and solar. The bill would require that fleet averages for car manufacturers be 35 miles a gallon by 2020. The bill would also increase production of ethanol and other biofuels from around 5 billion gallons a year to 36 billion gallons by 2022.

The proponents and opponents are a wide ranging group from the obvious big oil companies to the local pig farmer. Each has a vested stake and interest as does every American who drives a car and has to endure gasoline prices of $3.00 or more per gallon.

Hypothetically, if the entire bill was passed and implemented, one could expect higher prices at the pump and higher prices to eat. These are two things that the consumer cannot withstand, especially in the current environment of declining home prices and the already elevated price of gas. The overall economy would suffer as more of a consumer's budget would have to be allocated to energy and food instead of vacations, designer jeans, or iPods.

But the rising average mile per gallon fleet efficiency could actually decrease the cost of both if implemented sooner. Again, hypothetically the cost of gasoline should decrease if everyone in the country were driving in 35 mile per gallon vehicles. The law of supply and demand says so. Less demand than supply equals lowered prices. But big oil says that if tax incentives are stripped, gasoline prices have to rise to finance the search for more oil. So in laymen's terms, the average consumer would be net zero while using less oil in the vehicles, but pay more per gallon so oil companies can find more.

Ahh, but what about ethanol and the increased percentages of the renewable substance per gallon of gasoline? Again hypothetically, if ethanol production is increased and the percentage of it into a gallon of gas is too, gasoline prices should decrease because the demand for it is also decreased. But ethanol prices would rise as well as the feed stock for it which is currently corn. That, in turn, leads to increased prices for food since cattle, poultry, and pork producers all rely on cheap corn for feed for their livestock. That cost is passed through to consumers in the form of higher prices, which is another net zero for the consumer. This hypothetical is already real and has been seen over the past year with rising food costs due to corn demand and hasn't affected the price of gas as much as anticipated. The long term solution isn't ethanol, and many know it already. Production and feedstock have to become much more efficient for the solution to effectively work and the technology has been noted to be years behind in that regard.

What is known is that something needs and has to be done. The government is trying and that is commendable. But to basically reallocate where the consumer spends their money in net zero price increases and decreases which basically depend on Big Oil doing their part and the implementation of 35 mile per gallon fleet average implementation, is somewhat lackluster.

The tax increases for Big Oil should be expendable if bill proponents need it to have bi-partisan support. The ethanol increase should also be as well. What shouldn't be disposable is the increase in the mile per gallon average and the alternate energy mandate for utilities. The mandate for the increase in alternate sources will probably act to increase prices for consumers over the short term, but with less volatility as any price increases are already regulated by government agencies, something that can't be said for gasoline prices.

With many expecting a compromise in the very near future, and the two most highly debated provisions being the oil and gas tax incentives and the renewable energy mandate, one would have to think that at least one would be implemented and one to be stripped in order to gain overall acceptance. With that in mind, solar and alternate energy names warrant investor attention over the coming days and weeks as this bill gets tossed from one wing to the other. Investors would be wise to watch.   

The big oil lobby would do anything and everything to protect their vested interest even if that means some of the worst Climatic changes and eventual destruction of Mother Nature. Now something very interesting is also going on if you have noticed lately. A whole bunch of companies in alternate sector are coming up with some very competitive technologies. I would like to share info on one such company which is unfortunately private now. Its NanoSolar. It has a very distinguished list of investors including US Army investment arm. The NanoSolar example shows that the smart money is stealthy positioning in the sector. This will hopefully balance the oil lobbiest.

Even if the federal govt washes its hands you will have some support going on by more progressive states via their own Energy policies like California. Since the market for Solars is global and not local, if the US does not shows its leadership now then other countires like Germany and Spain will lead the pack.

There are really fewer good Solar companies while VC and other investors are egar to put some money in the sector. In current scenario smaller companies like ASTI and even some Chinese Solars are prime takeover targets. Risks abound the sector as well for wherever the great opportunity is there are people who would do everything to exploit the greed.

On a personal note, I have been taking part in Strategy Lab Open. If you have time then plz stop by the links below in the footnote of the post.

QuoteOn a personal note, I have been taking part in Strategy Lab Open. If you have time then plz stop by the links below in the footnote of the post.

You're in 2nd stocky, that's amazing! I hope you can keep up and reach number 1, good luck

I would like to keep politics out of ASTI's story because I don't think it matters all that much to the final outcome of the investment. I recognize that the current US government isn't all that favorable to solar energy, but hopefully that will change ... anyway, as stocky says, it's a global economy now, and if America doesn't want to lead the World where it needs to go, some other countries will.

I think that between now and the end of the year we'll get the news that Statoil Hydro increased its stake in ASTI from 23% to 35%. This news is crucial for two factors:

1) Investors knowing that Statoil Hydro has the same commitment to ASTI as Norsk Hydro had on its own;
2) The conversion of warrants B pushing ASTI's cash pile up to about $138 M.

I think that if we get the news as I believe we will, ASTI may have a big bull run towards the end of the year, maybe even reaching $30.

I'll continue holding ASTI for the long term.

David, untill when has Statoil Hydro the time to increase it's stake in ASTI or is there no time frame?

Quote from: Se7en on December 10, 2007, 11:14:23 AM
David, untill when has Statoil Hydro the time to increase it's stake in ASTI or is there no time frame?

Good question Se7en, let me check it out.

On the 10-Q we have the following information:

«After acquiring these additional shares, Hydro again held 23% of the total outstanding common shares, after its holdings were diluted as the result of the redemption of Class A public warrants. Hydro also acquired 23% of outstanding Class B warrants. Pursuant to another option that was approved by Ascent Solar's shareholders, beginning December 13, 2007, Hydro will have the opportunity to purchase additional shares and Class B warrants so that it will hold up to 35% of each class of security.»

«Class B public warrants The Class B public warrants included in the units became exercisable on August 10, 2006. The exercise price of a Class B public warrant is $11.00. The Class B public warrants expire on July 10, 2011. The Company does not have the right to redeem the Class B public warrants. As of September 30, 2007, 8,680,228 Class B public warrants were outstanding.»

From this information I guess Statoilhydro (STO) may increase its stake in ASTI from 23% to 35% sometime between December 13, 2007 and July 10, 2011. But I think they'll do it sooner rather than later, there's no point in making the 23% lose value and not properly fund ASTI.

Moreover they can buy something which is currently worth $20 for $11 and book an instant profit.

But it's an open question, I guess we'll soon find out.

(I may have made some confusion here and ASTI will receive more cash than I was thinking - it will also dilute shareholder's value some more - it looks like a zero sum game, but I think it isn't, because more cash increases the odds of the company really making it to the market place in a big scale. I'll write about this over the next update, I need to study and think some more about this issue).

And Solar continues to soar.

ASTI should trade above $24.50 in the next couple of days.

Thx David, I bought some ASTI yesterday morning @ $20.14

Quote from: Se7en on December 11, 2007, 05:02:12 AM
Thx David, I bought some ASTI yesterday morning @ $20.14

I thought you were holding for some more time Se7en, but welcome aboard

Man, I wish I had stronger hands when I originally bought this stock around $8 Anyway, even after buying it almost 100% higher than I've sold, ASTI is currently the 2nd best performer of the Main, so it was a good move. But this is nothing compared to my expectations for this stock.

Now let's take care of yesterday's issue, because I've been making some mistakes in my analysis and I'm sorry.

First, let's go back to the day when Norsk Hydro bought its 23% stake in ASTI. The document filed with the SEC was the following:

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070313/asti8-k.html

What I get from this document which is different from what I've been thinking is that Hydro doesn't have the exact same warrants which were issued when ASTI made its IPO. Hydro's warrants are restricted and Hydro must pay market prices for the class B warrants, not the $11 I've been talking about:

«... and the purchase price of each restricted Class B Warrant sold pursuant to the option will be equal to the average of the closing bids of Ascent's Class B Warrants in the five consecutive trading days ending on and including the trading day that is one day prior to the date of exercise, as reported by Nasdaq.»

Well, the class B warrants (ASTIZ) closed yesterday at $11.6, so not all that different from the $11. ASTIZ's price is more or less the difference between ASTI's stock price and $11. The more ASTI shares go up, the more Hydro will have to pay for its class B warrants.

Another issue here is that ASTI will issue new warrants, beyond the 8,680,228 currently outstanding. Making sure Hydro owns 35% of the warrants, instead of the current 23%, will make ASTI issue about 1 million new warrants, with a value of $11.6 M.

This doesn't change anything to ASTI's long term story. I guess that with the current investor appetite for solar energy stocks, if Statoilhydro really desires a 35% ownership of ASTI, it will exercise its "tranche 2" option as soon as possible, because the more time passes, the more likely it will have to pay more for its stake.

Statoilhydro can do it starting December 13, 2007. If this news indeed comes out I believe ASTI will jump towards $30 a share before the end of the year.

I'll keep holding ASTI for the long term.

David, I got a friend wrote me this: " I know they have deep pocket.  However there are tons of solar startups out there and some of them are very well funded too.  The majority of the solar cells today are silicon based.  Thin film solar cell is promising but there are some technical issues that needed to be solved.  For CIGS cell, it is difficult to control the compostion to get consistent film property in production environment.  Good results may be obtained in lab but scaling the process for mass production is no trivial matter.  The second problem is that CIGS film tends to absorb water moisture in air and film quality degrades.  So a very good cap layer is needed to seal the film.  ASTI is talking about space application first because there is no moisture in space.  But the market for space application is small.  I have not seen the distintive technological advantages of ASTI over others."

Apparently she is in the field, just pass on the information.

Quote from: realcoolhead on December 11, 2007, 03:53:35 PM
David, I got a friend wrote me this: " I know they have deep pocket.  However there are tons of solar startups out there and some of them are very well funded too.  The majority of the solar cells today are silicon based.  Thin film solar cell is promising but there are some technical issues that needed to be solved.  For CIGS cell, it is difficult to control the compostion to get consistent film property in production environment.  Good results may be obtained in lab but scaling the process for mass production is no trivial matter.  The second problem is that CIGS film tends to absorb water moisture in air and film quality degrades.  So a very good cap layer is needed to seal the film.  ASTI is talking about space application first because there is no moisture in space.  But the market for space application is small.  I have not seen the distintive technological advantages of ASTI over others."

Apparently she is in the field, just pass on the information.

Thanks realcoolhead, very good points on the risks of this investment.

I've been focusing on the potential if everything goes as planned (I say 30 bags - ASTI is the stock with the highest long term potential of the Main), but of course there are risks. Those production difficulties explain why ASTI is taking so long and making very small steps towards commercial production. But I think they've passed beyond the phase your friend is talking about, or else how come Hydro made the following announcements:

• Ascent Solar and Hydro Building Systems to Launch Brise Soleil Product Line
Business Wire (Tue, Sep 18)

• Customers See Future in Hydro, Ascent Building System Concepts
Business Wire (Wed, Nov 14)

«Joseph McCabe, who is responsible for business development for Ascent Solar, says the prototypes created "absolute excitement" at Batimat but that patience is key. Ascent plans to ramp up production of the photovoltaic modules in Denver next year, while Hydro will launch projects demonstrating the systems in France and in Spain. Other milestones also remain.»

I would say that if Statoilhydro increases its stake in ASTI to 35% that would be a very good sign that things are going well and ASTI should hit $30 on that information. If the initial production line goes well in 2008, we'll see $60 a share. And sometime between 2009 and 2012 is when I expect the 30 bags.

If any of these steps fails it will either take longer or ASTI will fail to deliver as it will just spend its $150 M in cash or so and achieve nothing. I think that we'll be able to see if things are not working and not take a big loss.

I would say the risks are contained and the potential is probably one of the greatest outthere.

I'll keep holding ASTI for the long term.

I would like to investigate more on the technological barriers and other risks, but I don't have the knowledge to do it. I'll trust Hydro's engineers judgment instead, since they're putting a lot of money into this company.

Ascent Solar Achieves Major Milestone on Its 1.5MW Manufacturing Line


LITTLETON, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--December 17, 2007--Ascent Solar
Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTI), a developer of state-of-the-art, thin-film
photovoltaic modules, announced today the successful and on-time delivery and
installation of all equipment required to complete the integration of its 1.5MW
production facility. Testing, integration and qualification of the new
manufacturing line is set to begin in January 2008. Product qualification and
certifications are planned to commence once the line completes integration and
achieves initial operating capacities.

Matthew Foster, President and CEO, commented, "we are very pleased to have
these complex tools delivered and installed right on schedule". This significant
event completes Ascent Solar`s first major milestone and our entire team is
excited to now enter the next stage of our commercial development".

Mr. Foster further stated that "we have also been very fortunate this year in
receiving additional capital through a strategic investment from Hydro and
conversion of our Class A public warrants. With this additional capital, the
company was able to start the development of its high-volume 100MW plant ahead
of schedule. We plan to place orders for machine procurement to build our first
25MW line some time in the second quarter of 2008 and we currently envision the
25MW facility completion by year-end 2009".

About Ascent Solar Technologies:

Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc. is a developer of state-of-the-art, thin-film
photovoltaic modules and is located in Littleton, Colorado. Please visit our
website for additional information at www.ascentsolar.com.


Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc.
Investor Relations Contact:
Brian Blackman, 832-515-0928
[email protected]
or
Media Contact:
Brand Fortified Public Relations
Kelly Brandner, 303-289-4303
[email protected]