3SOF

Raising Target Price for Sinovac and Reiterate Strong Speculative Buy
Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (AMEX: SVA) has performed very well since we initiated our research coverage on September 17, 2007. Its share price has rallied from $3.68 on September 17, 2007 to close at $5.76 on October 9, 2007 and had once surpassed our 12-month price
target of $5.80 earlier.
We have recently communicated with management of Sinovac to learn if there is any breakthrough in the development of its new vaccine products such as vaccine for H5N1 and Japanese Encephalitis, or any significant orders received for its existing vaccine products. Management indicated that there is currently no discloseable news or transactions on new products development or significant orders for existing products but will update investors on the company developments when it announces the 3Q07 financial results in November. Thus, we are keeping our revenue and net income forecasts for Sinovac in 2007 and 2008.
We believe the significant increase in share price of Sinovac over the past three weeks is due to more research coverage in the market, which has stimulated institutional interests in the stock. This can be shown by the fact that the average trading volume of the stock for the past 3 months has increased to 299,523 shares, up 121% from 135,838 shares at the time of our research report.
In view of the significant increase in the liquidity of the stock and research coverage in the market, we believe it is appropriate to narrow the valuation discount of Sinovac relative to its Chinese peers. As such, we believe it is appropriate to apply a higher 2008 PE at 25
times, as compared to our previous 20 times, for the valuation of the stock. With EPS for 2008 remains unchanged at $0.29, our new target price for Sinovac is $7.25 per share. We maintain our Strong Speculative Buy rating on the stock.

full report:
http://www.knobias.com/research.pdf?id=11968

Quote from: Terliso on September 27, 2007, 09:37:26 PM
What an awesome chart on SVA...   I bet SVA will close in 7ish area in the near term..

SVA is near at 7ish area, that's the all-time resistance and should be a good point to sell shares..

Breaking out!

Yes, I do Applaud the work here Terliso !

BRIEF-Sinovac Biotech Q3 results.......
Dec 11 - SINOVAC BIOTECH LTD (SVA)
* Third quarter earnings per share $0.05
* Third quarter sales $10.8 million

Big retracement at this point,as the technicals are hitting bottom.
Looks like some positive action. This is good!! Second up day with nice volume, and on a down day for the DOW.
I am curious to see what it does tomorrow.


52wk Range: 2.25 - 8.33
Volume: 1,698,653
Avg Vol (3m): 561,017
Market Cap: 170.61M
P/E (ttm): 31.52
EPS (ttm): 0.138

Technicals
Most Actives
Gap Up
Percentage Gainer

Fundamentals
Reports Earnings

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $105.17 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 04/10/2008
Last Analyst Rating: N/A

This stock had good news this monday, I think this one could go up to $7.00, by friday, for a nice return.

Market Report -- In Play (SVA)
December 24, 2007 8:00 AM ET

Sinovac Biotech announces "positive top-line" results of completed Phase II clinical trial of its pandemic influenza whole viron inactivated vaccine. Co announces positive top-line results of completed Phase II clinical trial of its pandemic influenza whole viron inactivated vaccine. The stratified, randomized, double-blind trial of the vaccine was designed to assess the safety and immunogenicity of the vaccine. Sinovac received approval from the China State Food and Drug Administration in April 2007 to conduct Phase Ib and II trials of the H5N1 whole viron vaccine and Phase I and Phase II trials of the H5N1 split vaccine. The preliminary results of the trials suggested that each of the three dosages can induce varying degrees of immune response. In particular, the anti-HI seroconversion rate, the increasing G.M.T and protection rate of the H5N1 whole viron inactivated vaccines for the 10ug and 15ug dosages reached the E.M.E.A evaluation standards of seasonal flu vaccines, which is an indication of good immunogenicity of the vaccine. The trial result did not show any serious adverse reaction among volunteers, suggesting the vaccine's good safety profile.

Bird flu vaccine?  I hear the U.S. is building a stockpile..

I wonder if these stocks will ever see their day again. . .  I have a feeling yes but I hate to mess with biotech.

Sinovac to Host Conference Call to Report 4Q and Full Year 2007 Financial Results
Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (AMEX: SVA) announced on March 25, 2008 that it will host a conference call on Monday, March 31, 2008 at 9:00 a.m. ET to review its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2007 financial results. In addition, management will provide an update on the Company's recent developments.

With a steady performance in 4Q, compared to 3Q in 2007, we expect Sinovac to achieve total revenue of $35.3 million for the full year 2007, up 130% from $15.4 million in 2006. Total net income for 2007 should amount to $7.8 million, against a $0.7 million loss in 2006.
EPS for 2007 is forecast at $0.19, compared to LPS of $0.09 in 2006.

We will provide a short note to comment on the financial results after the results announcement, and will follow up by a more detail update report.

 Sinovac Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2007 Financial Results
Monday , March 31, 2008 00:59ET

BEIJING, March 31 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (Amex: SVA), a leading provider of vaccines in China, today announced unaudited financial results for the three months and twelve months ended December 31, 2007.

    Highlights
     -- Record full year 2007 sales of $33.5 million, up 118% year-over-year
     -- Record full year 2007 net income of $7.7 million, or $0.19 per share
     -- Fourth quarter 2007 sales increased 49% year-over-year to $9.2 million
     -- Fourth quarter 2007 operating income rose 460% year-over-year to
        $3.3 million
     -- Fourth quarter 2007 net income increased to $2.0 million, or $0.05
        per share
     -- Reported positive preliminary Phase II results for pandemic influenza
        (H5N1) whole viron vaccine
     -- Sold 5.12 million doses of Healive(R) in 2007, up from 2.6 million
        in 2006
     -- Sold 1.59 million doses of Anflu(R) in 2007, up from 77,000 doses in
        in 2006

Mr. Weidong Yin, Chairman, President and CEO, stated, ''2007 was a record year for Sinovac from a commercialization and a clinical development standpoint. Exceeding our internal projections for year-over-year sales growth, our 2007 sales increased 118%, due to higher than anticipated sales of our lead products, Healive(R), our inactivated hepatitis A vaccine, and Anflu(R), our seasonal influenza vaccine, based on the proactive efforts of our sales organization across China. In addition, we entered a promotion agreement with GSK China for our seasonal influenza vaccine, Anflu(R), and successfully launched a marketing campaign that yielded sales in the second half of the year. We advanced the clinical development of our pandemic influenza vaccine formulations. We successfully completed the Phase II trial of our whole viron vaccine in 2007 that led to the submission with the SFDA during the first quarter of 2008. Most recently during the first quarter of 2008, the Phase I trial for the split inactivated vaccine was completed.''

Mr. Weidong Yin, Chairman, President and CEO, continued, ''The fourth quarter results marked our third sequential profitable quarter. Our quarterly sales reflected the continued demand for our lead product, Healive(R), our inactivated hepatitis A vaccine. Healive(R) was recently selected by the Beijing Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for the hepatitis A vaccination program.''

Full Year 2007

For twelve months ended December 2007, sales increased 118% to $33.5 million, compared to $15.4 million for 2006. The growth was attributable to strong sales of the Company's inactivated hepatitis A vaccine, Healive(R), and ongoing marketing initiatives in support of the Company's seasonal influenza vaccine, Anflu(R).

Gross profit for 2007 was $27.0 million, with a gross margin of 80.6%, compared to $11.1 million and 72.4%, respectively, for 2006. The higher gross margin resulted from the increased economies of scale and lower average unit costs associated with Healive(R) production and reflected normalized Anflu(R) production expenses.

Total operating expenses for the full year 2007 increased to $13.6 million, compared to $10.7 million in the same period of 2006. Selling, general and administrative (''SG&A'') expenses for 2007 were $12.0 million, compared to $9.8 million for 2006. The year-over-year increase in SG&A expenses reflected increased selling expense that is in line with the increase in sales, offset by decreased bad debt provision due to improvement in accounts receivable collection, decreased lower stock-based compensation and reduced consulting fees.

Aggregated research and development expenses for the full year 2007 were $1.8 million, compared to $1.2 million for 2006. The Company's net R&D expenses were $965,000 for 2007, compared to $325,000 for 2006. The R&D expenses recognized as a reduction to government grants were $844,000 for 2007, compared to $845,000 for 2006.

Operating income was $13.5 million for the full year 2007, compared to $440,000 for 2006. The year-over-year increase in operating income reflected the significant increase in vaccine sales.

Net income for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007 was $7.7 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $696,000, or $0.02 per diluted share, for 2006. Net income for 2007 included $478,000 of interest and financing expenses, $2.0 million of income taxes, and $3.6 million of minority interest. Net income for 2006 included $319,000 of interest and financing expenses, $101,000 of income taxes, and $1.0 million of minority interest.

As of December 31, 2007, Sinovac's cash and cash equivalents totaled $17.1 million, compared to $9.2 million as of December 31, 2006.

Fourth Quarter 2007

For the fourth quarter 2007, sales increased 49% to $9.2 million, compared to $6.2 million in the fourth quarter 2006. The growth was attributable to strong sales of the Company's inactivated hepatitis A vaccine, Healive(R), and ongoing marketing initiatives in support of the Company's seasonal influenza vaccine, Anflu(R).

Gross profit for fourth quarter of 2007 was $6.3 million, with a gross margin of 68.3%, compared to $4.9 million and 78.9%, respectively, for the same period of 2006. The lower gross margin resulted primarily from lower margin sales of Anflu(R).

Total operating expenses for the fourth quarter of 2007 decreased to $3.0 million, compared to $4.3 million in the same period of 2006. Selling, general and administrative expenses for fourth quarter of 2007 were $2.5 million, compared to $4.0 million in the same period of 2006. The year-over-year decrease in SG&A expenses was attributable primarily to the partial reversal of bad debt provision in the fourth quarter of 2007 based on the improvement of account receivables and lower consulting fees.

Aggregated research and development expenses for the fourth quarter of 2007 were $756,000, compared to $300,000 in the same period of 2006. The Company's net R&D expenses were $354,000 for the fourth quarter of 2007, compared to $162,000 in the same period of 2006. The R&D expenses recognized as a reduction to government grants were $755,726 in the fourth quarter of 2007, compared to $299,776 in the same period of 2006.

Operating income was $3.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2007, compared to $588,000 in the same period of 2006. The year-over-year increase in operating income reflected the significant increase in vaccine sales and the lower operating expenses.

Net income for the fourth quarter of 2007 was $2.0 million, or $0.05 per diluted share, compared to $181,000, or $0.005 per diluted share, in the same period of 2006. Net income for the fourth quarter of 2007 included $294,000 of interest and financing expenses, $42,000 of income taxes, and $965,000 of minority interest. Net income for the same period of 2006 included $95,000 of interest and financing expenses, $405,882 of income taxes, and $559,000 of minority interest.

Sales and Marketing

During the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, Sinovac sold total 5.12 million doses of Healive(R), up from 2.6 million doses in 2006. During the fourth quarter of 2007, Sinovac sold approximately 1.14 million doses of Healive(R), up from 1.07 million for the same period of 2006. During the fourth quarter, the higher sales reflected Sinovac's ongoing marketing activities. The initiation of the government paid market for the hepatitis A vaccine in China is expected to impact the seasonality of Healive(R) sales established in previous years.

For the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, Sinovac sold 1.59 million doses of Anflu(R), which accounted for 14.3% of full year sales. During the fourth quarter of 2007, Sinovac sold 0.52 million doses of Anflu(R), which accounted for 27% of quarterly sales. Sinovac is co-marketing Anflu(R) with GSK China and recently launched an extensive marketing campaign. Seasonal influenza vaccine sales to CDCs typically occur during third quarter, subject to seasonality as people get vaccinated from the end of the third quarter to the beginning of the fourth quarter.

Research and Development

In April 2007, Sinovac was granted approval by the China State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA) to enter into Phase II clinical trials for Panflu, the Company's pandemic influenza vaccine (H5N1). The SFDA approval covered Phase Ib and Phase II trials of the whole viron vaccine and Phase I and Phase II trials of the split vaccine.

In December 2007, Sinovac reported positive top-line results of completed Phase II clinical trial of its pandemic influenza (H5N1) whole viron inactivated vaccine. The randomized, double-blind trial of the vaccine was designed to assess the safety and immunogenicity of the vaccine. The study included 402 volunteers, between the ages of 18 and 60, who were each vaccinated with two doses of 5 ug, 10 ug or 15 ug. The preliminary results of the trials suggested that each of the three dosages may induce varying degrees of immune response. In February 2008, the report with results from the Phase II trial of the whole viron inactivated vaccine was submitted for review to the SFDA.

In 2007, Sinovac initiated a co-development project with ¡§National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC to develop a universal pandemic influenza vaccine to against pandemic flu caused by unknown flu viruses. It's in pre-clinical trial and we expect to file a clinical trial application in 2010.

Sinovac Biotech Ltd posts figures for fourth quarter and full year 2007
Tuesday , April 01, 2008 05:43ET

Apr 01, 2008 (M2 EQUITYBITES via COMTEX) -- Sinovac Biotech Ltd (Amex: SVA), a provider of vaccines in China, reported on 31 March its unaudited financial results for the three months and twelve months ended 31 December 2007.

For the 12 months sales rose 118% to USD33.5m, as compared to USD15.4m for 2006. For the fourth quarter 2007, sales was raised 49% to USD9.2m, a growth as compared to USD6.2m in the fourth quarter 2006.

The company recorded its net R&D expenses as USD965,000 for 2007, as compared to USD325,000 for 2006. Its net R&D expenses were USD354,000 for the fourth quarter of 2007, as compared to USD162,000 in the corresponding period of 2006.

Net income for the 12 months ended 31 December 2007 was reportedly USD7.7m (USD0.19 per diluted share) as compared to a net loss of USD696,000 (USD0.02 per diluted share) for 2006. It reported net income for the fourth quarter of 2007 as USD2.0m (USD0.05 per diluted share), as compared to USD181,000 (USD0.005 per diluted share) in the comparable period of 2006.

&

Sinovac Biotech to launch pandemic flu vaccine soon
Tuesday , April 01, 2008 02:27ET

BEIJING, Apr 1, 2008 (Xinhua via COMTEX) -- China's State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA) has just implemented special approving procedures for Sinovac Biotech Co.,Ltd. (AMEX.SVA) to launch pandemic flu vaccine before the Beijing 2008 Olympics this August.

This is aimed to provide necessary pandemic flu vaccine reserve to safeguard Olympic games and public health.

Accordingly, experts will finish technological appraisal on proposed vaccine products and SFDA is expected to decide whether to license the products within three days.

So far, Sinovac Biotech has finished the second phase clinical test of pandemic flu vaccine.

This is also the first time that China utilizes special drug approving procedure since the promulgation of special drug approving procedure in 2005. [/b]

Thanks for the Info la-onda, 

and here some good news about the  H5N1 vaccine:

pandemic influenza H5N1 vaccine (SVA) 3.83 : Co announces that Panflu, its pandemic influenza H5N1 whole viron inactivated vaccine, has been granted a production license by the China State Food and Drug Administration. Panflu is the first and only approved vaccine available in China against the H5N1 influenza virus. The vaccine is approved for production solely to be supplied to the Chinese national vaccine stockpiling program and will not be sold directly to the market. The license also indicates that the Chinese government has the exclusive right to initiate Panflu vaccinations in an emergency or in the event of an influenza pandemic.

1st Ld: China authorizes commercial production of human bird flu vaccine
Wednesday, April 02, 2008 12:11ET

BEIJING, Apr 2, 2008 (Xinhua via COMTEX) -- China's food and drug regulators on Wednesday authorized a domestic pharmaceutical firm to begin commercial production of a human bird flu vaccine, following more than two years of clinical trials.

The firm, Beijing-based Sinovac Biotech Co., Ltd. will produce vaccines to defend humans against the H5N1 virus and its epidemic variety.

According to Yin Weidong, general manager of the firm, Sinovac has the ability to produce new vaccines even if the virus mutates in humans.

China started clinical research and experiments as part of the process of making a vaccine in November 2005, after a domestic epidemic that caused huge losses for poultry breeders.

Trials by Sinovac proved that the vaccine is safe for humans and effective against the virus. According to Yin, more than 500 volunteers have received injections of the vaccine, which shows that it is reliable.

Yan Jiangying, spokeswoman for the State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA), said on Wednesday that the agency had authorized the production of the vaccine to prevent human-to-human transmission of the virus.

According to the SFDA, the vaccine will also be on hand as part of the preparations for dealing with any possible epidemic during the Beijing Olympics this summer.

The SFDA used a special procedure for the human bird flu vaccine, which allows it to approve commercial production simultaneously with the approval of the drug license.

"This is the first time the administration is using the special procedure since it was created in 2005," said Yin Hongzhang, an official with the SFDA.

Since 2005, China has reported 29 human bird flu cases, according to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

&

2nd Ld-Writethru-China Focus: China authorizes commercial production of human bird flu vaccine
Wednesday, April 02, 2008 12:52ET

BEIJING, Apr 2, 2008 (Xinhua via COMTEX) -- China's food and drug regulators on Wednesday authorized a domestic pharmaceutical firm to begin commercial production of a human bird flu vaccine, following more than two years of clinical trials.

The firm, Beijing-based Sinovac Biotech Co., Ltd. will produce vaccines to defend humans against the H5N1 virus and its epidemic variety, making China the world's second country with the technology and industrial capacity to produce human bird flu vaccine.

According to Yin Weidong, general manager of the firm, Sinovac has the ability to produce new vaccines even if the virus mutates in humans.

China started clinical research and experiments as part of the process of making a vaccine in November 2005, after a domestic epidemic that caused huge losses for poultry breeders.

Trials by Sinovac proved that the vaccine is safe for humans and effective against the virus. According to Yin, more than 500 volunteers have received injections of the vaccine, which shows that it is reliable.

Yan Jiangying, spokeswoman for the State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA), said on Wednesday that the agency had authorized the production of the vaccine to prevent human-to-human transmission of the virus.

According to the SFDA, the vaccine will also be on hand as part of the preparations for dealing with any possible epidemic during the Beijing Olympics this summer.

The SFDA used a special procedure for the human bird flu vaccine, which allows it to approve commercial production simultaneously with the approval of the drug license.

"This is the first time the administration is using the special procedure since it was created in 2005," said Yin Hongzhang, an official with the SFDA.

Since 2005, China has reported 29 human bird flu cases, according to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDCP).

According to Wang Yu, director with the CCDCP, the authorization embodies that China holds complete technological chain from epidemic monitoring, patient identification to virus decomposing and industrial production of the vaccine.

"China has completed the technological and substantial reserves of the human bird flu vaccine," Wang said, adding that researches to improve the effectiveness and reduce possible side effects of the vaccine will be carried out soon.

For the moment, the vaccine will not be sold in retailing drug stores but be reserved for emergency distribution in case of major outbreak.

We all know SVA:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2469.585

latest news:
China okays commercial production of human bird-flu vaccine - Xinhua
Thursday , April 03, 2008 04:48ET

Apr 02, 2008 (BBC Monitoring via COMTEX) -- BEIJING, April 2 (Xinhua) - China's food and drug regulators on Wednesday authorized a domestic pharmaceutical firm to begin commercial production of a human bird flu vaccine, following more than two years of clinical trials.

The firm, Beijing-based Sinovac Biotech Co., Ltd. will produce vaccines to defend humans against the H5N1 virus and its epidemic variety, making China the world's second country with the technology and industrial capacity to produce human bird flu vaccine.

According to Yin Weidong, general manager of the firm, Sinovac has the ability to produce new vaccines even if the virus mutates in humans.

China started clinical research and experiments as part of the process of making a vaccine in November 2005, after a domestic epidemic that caused huge losses for poultry breeders.

Trials by Sinovac proved that the vaccine is safe for humans and effective against the virus. According to Yin, more than 500 volunteers have received injections of the vaccine, which shows that it is reliable.

Yan Jiangying, spokeswoman for the State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA), said on Wednesday that the agency had authorized the production of the vaccine to prevent human-to-human transmission of the virus.

According to the SFDA, the vaccine will also be on hand as part of the preparations for dealing with any possible epidemic during the Beijing Olympics this summer.

The SFDA used a special procedure for the human bird flu vaccine, which allows it to approve commercial production simultaneously with the approval of the drug license.

"This is the first time the administration is using the special procedure since it was created in 2005," said Yin Hongzhang, an official with the SFDA.

Since 2005, China has reported 29 human bird flu cases, according to the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDCP).

According to Wang Yu, director with the CCDCP, the authorization embodies that China holds complete technological chain from epidemic monitoring, patient identification to virus decomposing and industrial production of the vaccine. "China has completed the technological and substantial reserves of the human bird flu vaccine," Wang said, adding that researches to improve the effectiveness and reduce possible side effects of the vaccine will be carried out soon. For the moment, the vaccine will not be sold in retailing drug stores but be reserved for emergency distribution in case of major outbreak.

•Swine Flu Index Jumps on Pandemic Fears
Indie Research(Mon 1:12pm)



52wk Range: 0.75 - 4.55
Volume: 1,858,274
Avg Vol (3m): 62,257.1
Market Cap: 117.10M
P/E (ttm): 14.44
EPS (ttm): 0.19
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)

Technicals
Gap Up
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
54.43%above 13-day MA
72.99%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: N/A 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $105.17 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 08/05/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Buy