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Small cap power: CIMT

Started by David Randolph, March 13, 2007, 06:41:13 AM

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David Randolph

CIMT has been holding around $3. Investors didn't push the stock high enough to close the gap at $3.54 and I think it's better this way. The 4th quarter results, which I expect to be excellent, will be the catalyst for CIMT to open with a big gap up above $3.54 and never look back.

If things didn't happen this way the "patience island" wouldn't be an island, it would be a peninsula :)

Kublakhan

Patience peninsula is forming nicely today

David Randolph

Quote from: Kublakhan on January 14, 2008, 02:08:10 PM
Patience peninsula is forming nicely today

Indeed Kublakhan, nice rally :)

It took CIMT eight months to recover from that horrible gap down back in May 2007. I always maintained that the fundamental trends continued to be positive and that 1st quarter drop was more due to seasonality than anything else. Our patience is starting to get some benefits, but this is nothing compared to what I expect for CIMT over the long term.

The company is still just a $26.8 M market cap with $40 M plus in annual revenues. Since it is a software company, I expect it to be a high profit margin business, now that the product development phase (which took about eight years - not eight months) is mostly behind the company.

In my initial estimates for the valuation model I estimated that net profit margin will be something like 15% over the long term, which on $40 M revenue would mean $6 M in net income, or $0.64 EP fully diluted share. Apply an earnings multiple of 20 and get $12.8 price per share.

I believe CIMT has the potential to be a $10 - $15 stock in 12 months time.

Garoh

It looks cute now  ;D
You'er doing excellent work David
No Pain No Gain

tokyopua

Quote from: tokyopua on January 03, 2008, 02:56:24 PM
Based on the triangle breakout CIMT should hit $3.70 from here, about a 20% gain from current price of $3.12.  A close above 3.23 should put this solidly in play.  ;D

The gap around $3.54 could provide some resistance to attaining the triangle breakout target, but we are getting close and faster than I thought we would.   I am happy either way, today was a great day for all of use Patience Island faithful  ;)
Chance favors the prepared mind

David Randolph

Quote from: Garoh on January 14, 2008, 05:37:39 PM
It looks cute now  ;D
You'er doing excellent work David

Thanks Garoh, unfortunately your kind words are not matched by the actual results, at least not over the short term. But I remain confident that in six months time we'll see the benefits of my actions today.

QuoteThe gap around $3.54 could provide some resistance to attaining the triangle breakout target, but we are getting close and faster than I thought we would.   I am happy either way, today was a great day for all of use Patience Island faithful ;)

Yep, it was better to have yesterday's pullback without having closed the gap on an intraday basis ...

Fundamentally CIMT looks on track or even exceeding expectations (for example, I had 20% revenue growth in my valuation model, but with the acquisitions revenue growth will be more like 100% in 2008) so I'll keep holding the stock.

mbaugh

WOW! CIMT has been holding up well throughout this bipolar market.

Like the dude on the yahoo board says,

"See ya'll at $12.00 or higher!"

notbeln

Corrections

David

what is so special in CIMT (like IMMR, for example)?
I see CIMT as only growing by buying another companies 

Best,
Vova

David Randolph

QuoteDavid

what is so special in CIMT (like IMMR, for example)?

CIMT is a software company which lost money between 2000 and 2005 as it was developing its products. Now the major development phase is behind us and the company is highly profitable.

I see $0.22 EPS in 2007 and there can be immense profit growth in 2008, because revenue and net profit margin are expanding.

Not all companies have to be special to be great investments. In CIMT, I'm just waiting for it to jump from a $20 M - $25 M market cap to $100 M plus market cap. I'm pretty positive that fundamentals deserve that and it will eventually happen.

As for the short term, and by short term I mean 1 year time period ... fundamentals don't matter, as we've seen with yesterday's 15.1% drop, which was due to ... ah, nothing.

David Randolph

Nothing new on CIMT. I expect 10 cents EPS when the company reports Q4 2007 results and hopefully that will provide a nice boost to the shares, since it fell back down for no apparent reason, other than the general market weakness and its low liquidity, which works both ways.


Se7en

I see that our basher(growlin bear,...) once again changed his nickname ...
Així és la Catalunya, així és el Barça! Mès que un club!!!

notbeln

If I'm doing "parallel" with two companies SILC & CIMT ....
wow.. where CIMT may go!   :o

Talked to CFO.. He diplomatically escaped from question about earnings date  :-[


Best,
Vova

David Randolph

QuoteIf I'm doing "parallel" with two companies SILC & CIMT ....
wow.. where CIMT may go! :o

Besides both companies being small caps based in Israel, I don't see many more similarities between them notbeln.

QuoteTalked to CFO.. He diplomatically escaped from question about earnings date :-[

Well, it has to be before March 15, so less than 6 weeks to go.

Apparently some people are losing patience with CIMT, since we've been having intraday sell offs with volume above average. This isn't due to any fundamental change within the specific company, but because investors look at the side and see many stocks rising right now and fall into the temptation of switching CIMT for another stock.

But, as we know, CIMT is the type of stock which can rise 100% or more in one single day, if the right news hits the press, like for example, a $0.10 EPS in one quarter ;)

With the Microsystems and Gibbs acquisition, 2008 looks very promising for CIMT. With a gross margin of 80%, this $21 M market cap software company can really thrive and I remain very optimistic on CIMT.

notbeln

David

I just look at SILC profits. If CIMT get the same profits, and you said they can,
CIMT's share price will grow like SILC.

Best,
Vova