3SOF

I'm glad that SIX is back above $1.90, it was hard to understand how come the stock broke down below its support area, given the good news out. It was a low volume move anyway and I guess it happened due to the general market pessimism and lack of enthusiasm for small caps in general, not because of SIX's intrinsic fundamentals, which are turning positive.

I remain very confident on the long term outlook for this pick.

I wish I had more time today to cover SIX's latest news in a more in depth way ... I couldn't sleep because my baby girl is sick and kept crying all night. If you're a father or a mother you know what I mean

Anyway, I'm going to make an effort to try to compensate you guys over the weekend.

Insider Buying Boom           In today's WSJ, other examples of insider buying.

Stockholders have plenty to worry about this year. But one group appears considerably more confident than the rest of the crowd: Stock purchases by company executives and directors are close to all-time highs.

While these purchases can sometimes throw off false bullish signals, they can help investors spot potential winners in turbulent markets.

Twenty-two of the S&P 500 index constituents had net insider purchases of at least 50,000 shares in the past six months, according to Reuters Knowledge. Not surprisingly, the list includes many companies from downtrodden sectors such as retail (including Dillard's, Limited Brands and Sears Holdings) and financial firms. The latter list includes several regional lenders, such as North Carolina's BB&T and Wachovia.

Insider buying isn't a foolproof signal. Executives and directors often make token purchases, particularly in relation to their wealth, to boost morale when the going gets tough.

And while insiders may have access to better information, their timing can still be lousy. As the credit crunch unfolded last summer, executives at Thornburg Mortgage loaded up on shares in the mid-$20s, only to see them plunge below $8 less than a month later.

But when coupled with reasonable valuations and solid fundamentals, a high level of insider buying can be a useful indicator. Take Starwood Hotels, which operates the upscale W Hotels. Analysts are skeptical about the $8 billion hotelier's prospects this year, but expect earnings to rebound more than 35% in 2009. At a recent $40 a share, Starwood sells for just 12 times 2009 forecast earnings, and executives are piling in.

General Electric's insiders -- including Chief Executive Jeff Immelt -- have also been loading up on GE shares, which fetch a reasonable 15 times earnings.

One difficult aspect to picking stocks in a choppy market is separating the overall malaise from each company's fortunes. Keeping an eye on which insiders are exploiting deflated stock prices to snap up their shares is one way to tease out the best opportunities.

--Dwight Cass and John Christy

QuoteI'm glad that SIX is back above $1.90, it was hard to understand how come the stock broke down below its support area, given the good news out. It was a low volume move anyway and I guess it happened due to the general market pessimism and lack of enthusiasm for small caps in general, not because of SIX's intrinsic fundamentals, which are turning positive.

SIX is technically in trouble again, since it closed at $1.79 on Friday. I guess that what's taking it down is the following article:

Six Flags stock is still a risky ride. Really

I don't see any fact in this text showing evidence that SIX won't be a good investment, just an analyst's opinion.

As I compare SIX with FUN (its closest competitor), FUN is worth 7 times more while it has less parks (19 versus 21 for SIX) and less attendance (22 million versus 24 million people for SIX).

SIX's management is doing a good job on the company's turnaround to profitability:

• Six Flags Reports Fourth Quarter Revenue and Attendance
PR Newswire (Tue, Jan

SIX just needs to be effective in its cost cutting program and it will also be profitable (as FUN is) and it will be worth at least 3 to 4 times more than what it is worth now.

This is my view of the future for this company and I'll keep holding SIX shares for the long term.

I noticed that SIX has a big amount of long term debt, but also FUN has the same load.
FUN earns money where SIX lose money.
Where can be the difference in these business?

QuoteFUN earns money where SIX lose money.

That "little" difference makes FUN be worth 6.5 times more than SIX. And SIX has more revenue than FUN, so obviously the difference has to do with costs and efficiency.

SIX's management is new (in the job for just about a year) and they say they'll reduce cash operating costs between $50 M and $60 M in 2008.

We'll see how this plays out.

SIX is still holding below $1.90 and it didn't happen yet, but I already see a white marubozu pushing the stock back above $2. I'll hold.

Six Flags Sees '08 Free Cash Flow 'Neutral,' Excluding ItemsLast update: 1/16/2008 9:36:09 AMDOW JONES NEWSWIRES Six Flags Inc. (SIX) on Wednesday said it would be free cash flow "neutral" with 6% attendance growth in 2008, excluding increases in revenue from sponsorship and international opportunities. The New York amusement-park operator provided the information in a copy of an presentation in a Securities and Exchange Commission

well, it's a good news...in this market capitulation is the beginning of recovery.
stay positive guys and look forward to the next months, sun will shine hard again!
:-)

Quote from: terainvestment on January 16, 2008, 11:21:27 AM
well, it's a good news...in this market capitulation is the beginning of recovery.
stay positive guys and look forward to the next months, sun will shine hard again!
:-)

I agree with you terainvestment

The whole movement of SIX below $1.90 was a nonsense to me. There's evidence that the turnaround is working and lower interest rates will help the company cut costs and go back to profitability in 2009. Then people will be paying $6 plus for this stock, in early 2009, as I see it.

 SIX Six Flags clarifies news story; says news reports of a foreclosure related to land underlying the site of the Six Flags Mall is completely unrelated to SIX (1.78 -0.12) 

Co issued a statement to clarify that recent news reports of a foreclosure related to land underlying the site of the Six Flags Mall in Arlington, Texas is completely unrelated to Six Flags Inc. and its affiliates. Six Flags believes that the Mall acquired common law rights to use the name based on an oral arrangement dating back many years ago.

Thanks for the information Garoh

Indeed, there were several financial websites with the following news release attached to SIX:

Posted for foreclosure: 20 acres around Six Flags Mall

But, as SIX clarified, Six Flags Mall has nothing to do with Six Flags (other than the name):

• Six Flags, Inc. Clarifies News Story
PR Newswire (Fri, Jan 25)

We'll see if the stock recovers back above $1.9 after this.

Anyway, I see it around $6 in early 2009 and I'll continue holding SIX.

Nice advertising network announced at SIX:

• Six Flags, Inc. Announces New In-Park Network, Six Flags Media Networks
PR Newswire (Mon 9:00am)

Maybe it will help the stock push above the 50 days SMA, which is a key resistance.

SIX continues to fight with the 50 days SMA and it is just one small step away from turning technically bullish.

I believe the company's fundamentals and hence the share price are more dependent on the management's ability to turn the business around than on macroeconomic factors.

And from what I've been seeing, SIX's current management is doing a great job, very imaginative. They're also putting a lot of money into SIX's shares, showing their confidence in the job they're doing.

I'll keep holding SIX for the long term.

SIX finally made it, it closed above the 50 days SMA This didn't happen since June 2007, as you can see on the chart below.

I still see SIX around $6 a share by year's end and I'll keep holding it.

SIX continues to do well, rising 3.2% yesterday.

SEC forms were filed showing HBK investments bought some more SIX shares and Jana Partners is no longer an investor. Shares change hands between institutions like it happens with other investors.

For me, as it is since the beginning, I'm not willing to sell my SIX below $6. I believe the fundamentals are better now than what they were when the stock was at $6 (but I think the stock was a bit overvalued back then), so my take is SIX is worth about $6 a share now.

Over the long term the stock price will adjust to the value given by the fundamentals. I'll just need to patiently keep holding as the market corrects its inefficiencies.

That's what I'll do.

fyi:
IR January presentation:
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/61/616/61629/items/275719/SIX_pres_011608.pdf

please check the financial review

cheers
O.