3SOF

End of February!

Best,
Vova

Quote from: notbeln on February 04, 2008, 06:35:31 AM
David

I just look at SILC profits. If CIMT get the same profits, and you said they can,
CIMT's share price will grow like SILC.

Best,
Vova

Indeed, I believe CIMT can be as profitable as SILC over the long term, but the businesses are very different. Anyway, the effect on the share price should be similar (I wish I had been more patient with SILC this time - but it's a waste of time to be thinking about the past mistakes, I need to carry just the lessons, not the pain).

Quote from: notbeln on February 05, 2008, 03:14:05 AM
End of February!

Best,
Vova

So, we're about 20 days away from the earnings release, thanks for the information Vova

I guess CIMT waited for 2008 to begin to announce and complete the Gibbs acquisition (it was announced in January 2, 2008), because they didn't want to damage the 4th quarter EPS number by adding the new shares issued for the acquisition.

It's another hint that numbers will be quite positive. I'm figuring 10 cents per share, 43% above the 7 cents CIMT reported last year. This should expand CIMT's earnings multiple, which, by my account and considering the $0.10 EPS I expect for the 4th quarter, is $2.94/$0.22 = 13.3.

The patience island is stretching a lot, but I didn't thought we would be out of it before the earnings, so ... I'll just have to keep waiting for the news and continue holding the stock.

So probably the EPS of the  1st Qtr 08 will be 'hurt' because of the new shares issued?!

Quote from: Se7en on February 05, 2008, 07:03:39 AM
So probably the EPS of the  1st Qtr 08 will be 'hurt' because of the new shares issued?!

Well, no, because Gibbs will also contribute to Q1 2008 and that company is profitable. I expect Gibbs to earn more net income than CIMT's increase in the number of shares outstanding and contribute to an overall higher EPS in Q1 2008.

However, the 1st quarter is seasonally weaker than the 4th, so if we're going to get a "big number" we'll probably get it right now in February.

David

What do you think about CAM market potential?

http://www.standardpoors.co.il/companies.asp?pageID=&CleanFormat=0&companyID=140&section=2

Only $900 million ? 

Best,
Vova

Today we're exactly 3 months after the release of the 3rd Qtr results, let's hope we hear soon something about the 4rd Qtr!


Cimatron Names Bill Gibbs President North America
Friday February 15, 8:00 am ET 
Assumes Full Responsibility for Both GibbsCAM and CimatronE Business Lines in North America

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080215/ukf015.html?.v=4


GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, February 15 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (Nasdaq: CIMT - News), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, today announced the nomination of Mr. Bill Gibbs as President North America, replacing Mr. Sam Golan. Bill Gibbs has also been nominated Director at Cimatron Technologies, Inc. (CTI). Under the new leadership of Bill Gibbs, CTI will continue to focus on developing the CimatronE business in North America, offering the best in class integrated CAD/CAM solution for Mold and Die makers.


Following the recently announced merger of Gibbs and Associates into Cimatron, Cimatron intends to capitalize on the strong presence of Gibbs and Associates in North America in order to enhance the sales efforts for CimatronE in this territory. Bill Gibbs, who will continue to maintain his position as President and CEO of Gibbs and Associates will now be responsible for promoting both CimatronE and GibbsCAM product lines in North America.

Quote from: notbeln on February 13, 2008, 05:36:16 AM
David

What do you think about CAM market potential?

http://www.standardpoors.co.il/companies.asp?pageID=&CleanFormat=0&companyID=140&section=2

Only $900 million ? 

Best,
Vova

Thanks for this link Vova, it's interesting. $900 M is a lot man, don't forget CIMT is just a $22 M market cap company. If it goes to $100 M (which I believe is likely) one gets 400% return on his investment now.

There was a press release just out for CIMT:

• Cimatron Names Bill Gibbs President North America
PR Newswire (Fri 8:00am)

It's a good sign that Bill Gibbs is taking an important role in CIMT's management. It bodes well for the merger's success.

This was posted on CIMT's board on Yahoo.  This person has extensive knowledge of the business as well as CIMT's business.  Sounds pretty good.


  "Ok, so is a 20F similar to a 10k? They still have to post the 10Q though, which will be soon right?

Any thoughts on how this quarter will compare to other fourth quarters?>>



No 10Q for the 4th quarter. Companies only file 10Q for the first three quarters.

I expect Q4 sales to approach or possibly exceed $11 million which would be a record for a quarter.

Sales for the first 9 months were $18.759 million

It will ake 11.241 million in Q4 sales to reach $30 million for the year, excluding Gibbs which was not acquired until 2008.

$30 million revenues for the year is possible.

As far as profits go there are two main variables that could have a negative impact on Q4 earnings.

My guess is that the cost involved in the Gibbs acquisition might approach $650,000 and most certainly exceed $500,000. The questions are

1. In what quarter or quarters do they book these costs. It might be possible to split them up between 2007 Q4 and 2008 Q1 depending on when they were actually incurred though GAAP might require booking them all in the quarter when the deal was actually closed.

2. Whether they can capitalize these costs under Goodwill and not have to expense them.

The other major variable in expenses in Q4 are marketing costs. CIMT has been really cranking up their selected geographic area marketing. In fact in the last conference call Haran mentioned that.

We will just have to wait and see what those numbers are when the the earnings are released.

I am looking for from $.10 - #.15 for the quarter.

For 2008 right now I am projecting

Revenues of $50 million or more
EPS of between $.40 and $.45.


For 2007
--------------
Revenues $30 million
EPS from #.22 - $.27

For 2008 "
--------------

Some point about CIMT's outlook (after merger with Gibbs) disturbe me:

Why they said that revenue for 2008 will exceed $40M and not $50M?
If they sell $10-11M at this moment without Gibbs, they can sell for more than $50M
in 2008! May be menegement is too conservative?

Best,
Vova

I spoke to Yael from IR. She said that management usually very conservative
and not give any outlooks. $40M is "some general number" , may be they know that
it's situation at current moment, IMHO.


Best,
Vova

QuoteI expect Q4 sales to approach or possibly exceed $11 million which would be a record for a quarter.

$30 million revenues for the year is possible.

These expectations are very high. $11 M would be almost double of what the company achieved in the 4th quarter of 2006, when it sold $6 M. Microsystems may have sold $3 M in Q4 2007 (since it sells about $10 M a year and there's some positive seasonality in the 4th quarter - but not a lot).

I would be very happy with $10 M in revenue, but if it's $11 M, that's even better

QuoteI am looking for from $.10 - #.15 for the quarter.

Again, this is very optimistic. I maintain my $0.1 EPS expectation. This should be enough to push CIMT to $4.5. We'll, if it's $0.15 EPS ... I guess we would see $6 or more over the short term.

Quote from: notbeln on February 19, 2008, 01:15:04 AM
Some point about CIMT's outlook (after merger with Gibbs) disturbe me:

Why they said that revenue for 2008 will exceed $40M and not $50M?
If they sell $10-11M at this moment without Gibbs, they can sell for more than $50M
in 2008! May be menegement is too conservative?

Best,
Vova

You can't extrapolate the 4th quarter into a full year because there's positive seasonality in the 4th quarter.

If CIMT keeps growing as I think it will, it will certainly achieve $50 M revenue in 2008, helped by the Microsystem and Gibbs acquisition.

QuoteFor 2008 right now I am projecting

Revenues of $50 million or more
EPS of between $.40 and $.45.

EPS of $0.425 would mean net income of $4.04 M, which on $50 M revenue would mean a net profit margin of 8%. I think that over the long term CIMT's net profit margin will be closer to 15%.

So yes, I believe these 2008 estimates are entirely possible and CIMT may even do better than this.

I expect CIMT to be a $8-$10 stock by year's end and $15-$20 in late 2009.

I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.

David,
I read  a message suggested on the "Messages" for CIMT noting that, "CIMT is the stock of the month featured  in the Bowser Report."  I don't know  how relevant this is, but thought you might like to know.


                                             James Mark

do you have a link?

Quote from: pinoleropuro on February 19, 2008, 10:20:09 AM
do you have a link?

Apparently the Bowser report is sent by a newsletter and you have to be a member ...

We are close. Lets hope for the best

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080219/uktu062.html?.v=1