3SOF

from Zacks:
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) has had an amazing year. During its most recent quarterly report it announced that income had grown more than 10-fold from last year, jumping to $46 million from $4.3 million. The company also reported that it has booked over $6 billion in contracts over the next five years, providing a very rosy long-term revenue picture.

Full Analysis

First Solar, Inc. and its subsidiaries engage in the design, manufacture, and sale of solar electric power modules. The solar module is a polycrystalline thin film structure that employs cadmium telluride semiconductor material to convert sunlight into electricity. The company sells its products to solar project developers and system integrators primarily in Germany. The company is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

On Nov 7 First Solar reported an awesome third quarter with soaring profits. Net income grew to $46 million from $4.3 million last year. Revenue rose to $159 million from $40.8 million in the year-ago period.

The company has now surprised and beaten estimates for the last four quarters by an average of 17 cents, or an eye-popping 253%.

The company also raised its guidance full-year guidance for both 2007 and 2008. It lifted its 2007 revenue forecast range to $480 million to $485 million from an earlier outlook of $400 million to $415 million. It also provided a 2008 revenue forecast of $760 million to $800 million. These numbers are considered conservative by some estimates. In addition, First Solar has locked in over $6 billion in contracts over the next five years.

First Solar appears to be a step ahead of its competition because its product are not dependent on silicon wafers, which, because of the short supply and steep prices of silicon, is creating a serious bottleneck for the rest of the industry. This enables the company to aggressively move forward with its production capabilities and feed a market that is under-supplied. While not rated as efficient as the more common silicon-based solar cells, thin film has taken off in the last year because of soaring demand for alternative energy and a world-wide silicon shortage. It is also cheaper to make than silicon cells.

The company has also taken aim at the US utility market, where there is incredibly strong demand to have solar arrays installed on commercial and residential rooftops. In order to accomplish this objective, First Solar purchased Turner Renewable Energy LLC. Turner sells solar systems to utilities.

Estimates for the company have been growing by leaps and bounds, with almost every single covering analyst increasing projections for all periods of time within the last 30 days. Both current-year and next-year earnings estimates have exploded, with the next-year estimate jumping 62 cents to $2.05 per share.

Not surprisingly, the company's stock price has been on fire. Share prices are approaching the mind-bending return level of 1000%, beginning the year at less than $27 per share and accelerating to its current price of over $250.

This stock is definitely a high-flyer, but its trajectory higher has been fairly smooth. It is currently locked into a very nice upward trend that begins from the low of Nov 5 and appears to be applying significant pressure to the 52-week and all-time with a classic wedge formation.

In addition, the stochastic is signaling that the stock is not currently trading in overbought territory, which means it should have the strength and breathing room needed to eclipse the high and explore higher territory.

QuoteNot surprisingly, the company's stock price has been on fire. Share prices are approaching the mind-bending return level of 1000%, beginning the year at less than $27 per share and accelerating to its current price of over $250.

I didn't know it at $27, but around $50 AussieTrader talked to me about it and I dismissed it, because it seemed "overvalued". It would have been a fivebagger, what a miss.

Fortunately there's another thin film producer, still in the development stage (but with plenty of funds to pursuit its production plans) that hopefully will also be a multibagger for the Main Portfolio. This one I will hold with strong hands.

Considering FSLR, with a $21 B market cap and a forward p/e of 136, I don't know how it will be able to live up to expectations. Perhaps I'm wrong again and FSLR will be a $100 B market cap, rising five fold again ... good luck and congrats if you own it

What a run! I would ring the register real soon on this one by the looks of this chart pattern.The last few months imo have formed a terminal 5th wave diagonal or rising wedge pattern.You can see this clearly by connecting the highs and lows from Nov on the chart David posted.There looks to be 2 more waves left before it completes the Diaganol formation,then expect it to correct.The good thing is after it corrects this could be another big runner like GOOG if the hunger for solar stays strong.

Shorted at $185. I think it sinks to $100 by summer.

I was considering the same thing.  I also wouldn' be surprised to see others like SOLF and CSIQ fill their gaps.

Jody

Short since break of 250
I too am targetting 100

Quote from: Lucas Scott on February 07, 2008, 03:12:30 AM
Shorted at $185. I think it sinks to $100 by summer.

Quote from: nicknite20 on February 07, 2008, 08:22:46 AM
Short since break of 250
I too am targetting 100

Nice trades guys

I guess FSLR had its "normal" correction to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, closed some gaps along the way and now ... it seems to be moving back up again. If it goes above $200 I guess it will run to retest the all time highs at $283.

Even though the company looks overvalued using traditional valuation metrics, this is the market leader and the World's largest solar energy company, and you know how investors pay up for the leader.

earnings today..excercise caution.

Am still holding my short..plus im selling covered puts her to give me some cushion to cover on break of 200.

My short got smashed by earnings

May be time to short again as it has retraced 61.8% from the low. David's chart showed the pullback from $280 high retraced to the 61.8 Fib line. This bounce has carried it up to the next 61.8 Fib line.

I don't think the current price is sustainable. FSLR has a Price/Sales ratio of 35. GOOG has a P/S of 10. AAPL's is 4.  P/E's through the roof too.  And there seems to be so many more competitors in the solar field. Eventually solar will be a commodity, won't it?

Quote from: Lucas Scott on February 13, 2008, 04:30:27 PM
My short got smashed by earnings

May be time to short again as it has retraced 61.8% from the low. David's chart showed the pullback from $280 high retraced to the 61.8 Fib line. This bounce has carried it up to the next 61.8 Fib line.

I don't think the current price is sustainable. FSLR has a Price/Sales ratio of 35. GOOG has a P/S of 10. AAPL's is 4.  P/E's through the roof too.  And there seems to be so many more competitors in the solar field. Eventually solar will be a commodity, won't it?

I don't know if I would be shorting anymore...at least for awhile.  Record volume today for FSLR.  I understand...FSLR seems to have a high valuation...but solar is growing at exponential rates in Europe and Asia.  Once Bush is out of office...the U.S. will give better incentives for solar companies.   Right now only .01% of energy comes from solar.  If we even get to even only .1%...solar energy would expand 10 fold.

There are an increasing amount of solar companies but I would hardly say its over-crowded...just think of how many semi-conductor or chip companies there are.  Now I would say the chip space is over-crowded.

Just my 2 cents worth.

QuoteI don't think the current price is sustainable. FSLR has a Price/Sales ratio of 35. GOOG has a P/S of 10. AAPL's is 4.  P/E's through the roof too.  And there seems to be so many more competitors in the solar field. Eventually solar will be a commodity, won't it?

Indeed, but FSLR is growing a lot faster than GOOG and AAPL. For example, FSLR's EPS in the 4th quarter grew 600% from the year ago levels, while GOOG's grew 46% and AAPL's grew 54%.

You need to be careful and not put all solar stocks in the same bag. FSLR is the World leader in production of thin film solar panels, which don't use polysilicon like most other solar companies do.

So FSLR has a unique technology and that makes it the low cost producer of the industry. This is why the market values it higher than any other. And the competition from "commodity" solar panel producers won't hurt it in my view. I wouldn't exclude FSLR being a $100 B company or $1,000 a share in five years time.

Just to broaden our minds and consider everything as possible.

Probably this isn't the best timing to say this, since maybe some of you are suffering a bit from recent short sales, but as years went by I started to consider selling stocks short as something to avoid if one wants to successful over the long run.

If you're not leveraged (as one should never be when talking about individual stocks) the maximum upside potential is 100% if the stock goes to zero. The risk is unlimited. Moreover, usually the stocks one is allowed to short are the good stocks. You can't short the really bad ones, because they're already completely shorted or they're too illiquid.

Just one more note against shorting: even in bear markets, there are always stocks rising (some even by tenfold) and finding these stocks is a better exercise (more lucrative over the long run and more healthy) than selling stocks short.

Just my humble opinion on the subject. Good luck

Zacks #1 Rank Top Performers: First Solar, Walter Industries, Trina Solar, Pioneer Drilling and Mosaic
Tuesday , April 01, 2008 15:06ET

CHICAGO, Apr 01, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Zacks.com announces the latest list of top performing Zacks #1 Rank ("strong buy") stocks. The stocks on the prestigious list with the highest returns last week were First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), Walter Industries, Inc. (NYSE: WLT), Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL), Pioneer Drilling Company, Inc. (AMEX: PDC) and The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS). Each of these stocks easily outperformed the S&P 500.

Stocks ranked #1 (Strong Buy) by Zacks have produced an average annual return of +32% since inception in 1988. During the 2000-2002 bear market, Zacks #1 Rank stocks gained 43.8% while the S&P 500 tumbled 37.6%. To learn more about the Zacks Rank, go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=3172.

Here is a synopsis of the last week's best performing Zacks #1 Rank stocks.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) rose almost 18.1% for the week ended Mar 28, taking advantage of a solid week for solar stocks in an otherwise challenging market. Over the past two months, earnings estimates for this year are up almost 20%. Looking further into the future, analysts currently expect FSLR to earn about $5.33 in 2009, compared to expectations of $2.50 for this year. This more than 100% expected improvement shows the upward momentum for this solar company as the search for new forms of energy continues to intensify.

In February, First Solar announced strong fourth-quarter results, including earnings per share of 77 cents on revenues of $200.8 million. The earnings results advanced substantially year over year and also topped the consensus by 37.5%. The company has a strong track record of better-than-expected quarterly results. Meanwhile, revenues soared past last year's $52.7 million. EPS and revenues for the full year also advanced handily from year-ago levels.

.....

&

FSLR: Canaccord Adams Starts @ Buy; Sets Tgt @ $325; Analyst Notes
Friday , March 28, 2008 12:32ET
Issuer: First Solar Inc (NasdaqNM: FSLR)
Analyst Firm:  Canaccord Adams
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $325.00
Analyst Comments: First Solar's earnings are growing at a CAGR of 55%, compared to the 44% growth of its peers. The company enjoys a gross margin in the 50% range, which in most cases is almost double that of its c-Si peers in the 20-30% range.

update, heavy volume