3SOF

On the charts, when the 50 day moving average upward crosses the 200 day moving average, the witch doctor looks for a steady upward movement in stock price. On the other hand, these two lines are merging and may not actually cross.

Bollinger Bands are getting narrow, an indication that a big change is about to happen. My guess late next week.

Hi la-onda, PAL had a higher low, now we need a higher high, above $6.6, to confirm the ascending trend.

QuoteBollinger Bands are getting narrow, an indication that a big change is about to happen. My guess late next week.

Why late next week? Results coming out? Let me see ...

No, just May 12, 2008.

I'll keep holding PAL.

PAL formed a  Bullish Homing Pigeon Pattern 

Here some news:

North American Palladium Announces First Quarter 2008 Production Results

North American Palladium Ltd. (TSX: PDL)(TSX: PDL.WT)(AMEX: PAL)(AMEX:
PAL.WS) today announced production results for the three month period ending
March 31, 2008.

Highlights for the Quarter

- Total palladium production for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 was 61,091
ounces, a decrease of 22% compared to the same quarter a year ago but in line
with management's expectations.

- Production guidance of 300,000 ounces of palladium in 2008 is reaffirmed.

- Average palladium spot price of US$444 per ounce for Q1 2008 represents a
28% increase over the average spot price of US$346 for Q1 2007.

Results of Operations

For the first quarter of 2008, the Company's Lac des Iles mine produced 61,091
ounces of palladium at an average head grade of 2.20 g/t. This represents a
decrease of 17,714 ounces when compared to the first quarter of 2007, however,
this is in line with management's expectations.

As a result of scheduled maintenance, mill availability was also lower
year-over-year. Mill availability was 89.5% in the first quarter of 2008 versus
94.5% for the same period last year. The additional downtime is expected to
benefit production levels for the balance of 2008. A total of 1,136,568 tonnes
of ore were processed during the first quarter for an average of 12,490 tonnes
per day at a palladium recovery rate of 76.0%, compared to 1,288,540 tonnes or
14,317 tonnes per day at a recovery of 76.6% in the same period last year.

The underground mine continued to deliver consistent results, achieving
planned grade and production. During the quarter, the underground mine averaged
2,093 tonnes of ore per day at a palladium head grade of 5.66 g/t compared to
an average of 2,236 tonnes per day at a palladium head grade of 6.0 g/t in the
same period last year.

Jim Excell, President and Chief Executive Officer had the following comments:
"While our first quarter production results were lower than the same period
last year, this was not unexpected. In addition to planned maintenance, we also
experienced unscheduled maintenance. The decrease in production over the first
quarter of 2007 primarily reflects our mine plan, which anticipated processing
lower grade ore from the open pit. This portion of the pit has now been mined
out and we are now mining from a higher grade area of the open pit where we
expect to remain for the balance of the year."

The Company reaffirmed production guidance of 300,000 ounces of palladium for
2008, an increase of approximately 5% over 2007. The proportion of by-product
metals produced is, in aggregate, expected to increase in tandem with palladium
production.


---------------------------------------------------------
First Quarter
---------------------------------------------------------
Palladium 2008 2007
---------------------------------------------------------
Ore Milled (tonnes) 1,136,568 1,288,540
---------------------------------------------------------
Ore Milled (tpd) 12,490 14,317
---------------------------------------------------------
Head Grade (g/t) 2.20 2.48
---------------------------------------------------------
Recovery (%) 76.0 76.6
---------------------------------------------------------
Mill Availability (%) 89.5 94.5
---------------------------------------------------------
Production (oz) 61,091 78,805
---------------------------------------------------------
By-Product Metals
---------------------------------------------------------
Platinum (oz) 5,029 6,862
---------------------------------------------------------
Gold (oz) 4,405 4,890
---------------------------------------------------------
Nickel (lbs) 759,713 812,385
---------------------------------------------------------
Copper (lbs) 1,343,033 1,370,113
---------------------------------------------------------


North American Palladium has not hedged any of its current or future
production.

About North American Palladium

North American Palladium is one of North America's largest producers of
palladium. The Company's core palladium business at the Lac des Iles mine is
strengthened by a significant contribution from platinum, nickel, gold and
copper by-product metals. The Company is actively progressing its three
advanced exploration projects: the Offset High Grade Zone at its Lac des Iles
Mine, the Shebandowan West Project, located approximately 100 kilometres from
the mine, and the Arctic Platinum Project in Finland. Please visit
www.napalladium.com for more information.




Contacts:
North American Palladium Ltd.
Jim Excell
President and Chief Executive Officer
(416) 360-7971 Ext. 223
Email: [email protected]

North American Palladium Ltd.
Linda Armstrong
Director, Investor Relations
(416) 360-7971 Ext. 226
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.napalladium.com

Someone shot the pigeon 

Thanks for posting the following news Rmagos:

North American Palladium Announces First Quarter 2008 Production Results
Marketwire (Tue 10:10am)

Weak production numbers killed my "good news coming due to higher palladium prices" thesis.

The stock also broke down below my "ascending channel" technical thesis:



Merril Lynch provided an updated analysis and there aren't any catalysts to move the stock higher in the medium term:



Yoy production down on lower Pd grade and mill availability

North American Palladium reported that for Q1'08, palladium production totaled 61,091 oz, while byproduct production of platinum, gold, nickel and copper amounted to 5,029 oz, 4,405 oz, 759,713 lbs and 1.343 million lbs respectively. The company noted that while palladium production was down 22% yoy (from 78,805 oz in Q1'07), it was in-line with company expectations for the quarter.

North American Palladium attributed the decline in yoy production to a number of factors including: reduced mill availability (89.5% vs. 94.5% in Q1'07) because of both scheduled and unscheduled maintenance leading to a decline in ore milled, and lower head grade (2.20 g/tonne vs. 2.48 g/tonne in Q1'07). Management stated that this lower grade ore was expected and in-line with the mine plan for the quarter, and that future mining would be from a higher grade area of the pit.

Reaffirms 2008 palladium guidance

The company reaffirmed that it expects 2008 palladium production of 300,000 oz although it once again declined to provide a cash cost estimate. This implies that production for the remainder of the year would need to average close to 80.000 oz/quarter. To achieve this target, both throughput and grade would need to be substantially higher in our opinion. For 2008, we are modeling palladium production of 300,000 oz at a total cash cost net of byproduct credits of $110/oz.

Q1'08 earnings preview

North American Palladium has not yet provided a reporting date for its Q1'08 earnings release. We are expecting EPS of $0.03/share.







Valuation update

Our net asset value (NAV) for North American Palladium stands $4.65/sh ($3.21/share DCF of mining assets and $1.44/share net cash and working capital). Although trading at only 1.2x cash-adjusted NAV, we continue to believe that the stock is fairly valued at this time given the current commodity price environment and development project risk. Renewed strength in PGM prices and the timely and successful development of the company's proposed growth projects could lead to an expansion in PDL's valuation multiple. We are maintaining our Neutral rating at this time.

The only reason I would have to keep on holding PAL is "I'm a long term investor, when I buy, it is for the long term", which is flawed, because I didn't have the right tools or knowledge to do that. Probably it also isn't the best strategy for a small private investor or it doesn't suit my personality.

I opt to take a small loss in PAL at this time. The trading plan for PAL is SELL.

David, I haven't said much lately since I have been very busy in my personal affairs. I know it is a difficult time for you, so I just want to drop a note to say that you have my full support adjusting your strategy. After all, it is the return that matters... Keep your head up!

I am staying in Pal.  Will post when I sell.

Poli

I don't understand this so well, but people in the know say that this is fantastic news:

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080429/0391747.html   

To anyone still holding PAL like me,  good earnings report out yesterday after the close.  To all good health and trading. 

poli

North American Palladium(PAL) is an exploration and production company focused on the production of palladium and gold. The company's flagship mines Lac des Iles and Sleeping Giant are located in Ontario and Quebec, respectively.

In the current scenario of growing deficit for the platinum group metals, North American Palladium will likely benefit from increased production going forward, in comparison to counterparts Stillwater Mining(SWC) and Platinum Group Metals(PLG).
Preliminary assessment of the Offset Zone in Lac des lles mine was positive, signaling a production boost. The stock rallied nearly 58.4% since August 24. In comparison, Stillwater Mining and Platinum Group Metals gained 43.6% and 20.0%, respectively, during the same period.
Of the 8 analysts covering North American Palladium, 7 recommend buying and one advised selling.

Strong BreakOut.......
based on QE2, short covering, and dollar sinking.
Gold Silver Palladium appear to be good medium term bets. But this play should be good until Bernanke appears exhausted or deflation appears to be winning.

On Technicals, MA crossover supported by increased volume and dollar down and car sales improving. Russian supplies in question adds another plus.

Technicals
Record Volume
Record Price High
Most Actives
Record Price Break Out
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
16.81%above 13-day MA
30.07%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 95 

PAL will likely continue upward to $7 on this move.
Closing at $5.48 is a new 12 month high.
Also MEA could show a similar run.

The Golden Cross.......