3SOF

SIX's bullish breakout of the 50 days SMA seems more credible this time than the last one which occurred in early February. I say this because of two main reasons, one fundamental and one technical:

1 - Fundamentally, revenue growth of 35% in Q1 2008 versus Q1 2007 was much stronger than anyone expected. This is an early sign that the company's turnaround plan will indeed work.

2 - Technically SIX now has a potential double bottom in place. For it to be a confirmed double bottom SIX needs to close meaningfully above $2.38 with volume above average.

I'll keep holding SIX for the long term.

 Reuters  SIX bid2.39  ask2.47 AH Bodes well.
Disney reports higher profit on parks and studio
Tuesday May 6, 4:13 pm ET

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS - News) on Tuesday reported a higher quarterly profit, boosted by strong results at its studio and stronger-than-expected theme park attendance.

Net income in the fiscal second quarter ended March 29 was $1.1 billion, or 58 cents per share, compared with $919 million, or 44 cents per share, in the same quarter last year.

Revenue rose to $8.71 billion from $8.07 billion a year earlier.

Analysts, on average, had expected revenue of $8.49 billion, according to Reuters Estimates.

Disney shares closed up 1.3 percent at $33.73 on Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange.

(Reporting by Gina Keating; Editing by Braden Reddall)

SIX: Short Interest UP 2.4% to 17.2M at the End of Apr 2008
Tuesday , May 06, 2008 18:43ET

According to new short interest data from NYSE, short interest for Six Flags, Incorporated (NYSE: SIX) INCREASED 2.4% to 17,235,071 shares as reported at month-end April, 2008.
Based on SIX's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,304,430, it would require approximately 14 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.


nice chart:

QuoteReuters  SIX bid2.39  ask2.47 AH Bodes well.

Yep, SIX closed at $2.40 in after hours trading. Just 20,400 shares traded though. Thanks for the information on Disney's results soxguy

QuoteSIX: Short Interest UP 2.4% to 17.2M at the End of Apr 2008

Man, that's a lot of shorts! 18% of shares outstanding sold short (well, if viewed from this perspective, it doesn't seem as much).

Anyway, significant bets made on the "bankruptcy side". But that doesn't seem to be the case, as it appears SIX's turnaround plan will be successful.

I wonder if SIX will ever trade at a valuation similar to FUN, say, 1.3 times sales? That would mean a $1.26 B market cap for SIX, compared to the current $208 M, that is, about 6 times more. Dream on

Anyway, I would be satisfied to walk way with a 200% profit by year's end ... (still dreaming).

Waking up, we'll see if SIX can break $2.38 to the upside and close above this short term resistance level. I'll keep holding SIX.

QuoteWaking up, we'll see if SIX can break $2.38 to the upside and close above this short term resistance level.

Closed at $2.4, up 3%. Not bad, but still not a convincing bullish breakout (the general market also didn't help).

Results will be released today after the close. I expect to get more details on how's the execution of the company's turnaround plan going. So far, so good.

Any reason SIX is tanking in the pre-earnings trading? Down 10% as of 10:30am... I hope it's just someone getting nervous and dumping, and not someone with an info we don't have.

QuoteAny reason SIX is tanking in the pre-earnings trading? Down 10% as of 10:30am...

SIX went up 66% in a couple of weeks. With the failure to meaningfully breakout above the $2.38 resistance level and earnings to be out after the close, short term traders with profits opt to take them, as they're nervous.

Quote
I hope it's just someone getting nervous and dumping, and not someone with an info we don't have.

Me too.

Something came up and I don't have much time.

SIX's results were out yesterday after the close:

• Six Flags Announces First Quarter Results
PR Newswire (Thu 3:00pm)

Of course, this is SIX's seasonally weakest quarter, but it shows a strong start to 2008. I expect this momentum to carry on to the summer months.

I've attached the conference call transcript.

Update:

Brief technical comment: SIX primary trend is Bearish. Since April, the stock started a rally breaking out its descending pattern and making a new higher high, but not changing the primary trend yet. Its EMA-50 has now a positive leaning and should work as support level (aprox: $1.94), its secondary support level is $1.80. The main resistance level is located at $2.40 and its the most important barrier for the upside.
I would call this a valid turnaround scenario at this stage, but still needing confirmation (that would be the breakout of $2.40 to the upside). 

Q1 Results were slightly above estimates. But I can’t say I’m so optimistic for this fundamental case yet, it could be a long shot (the company should only be profitable in a few years) with lots of obstacles in the middle.

There were some good and bad news recently:

Good News:
- Six Flags Opens 7 New Coasters
- Tony Hawk's Big Spin Opens at Six Flags Discovery Kingdom
- The Evolution is Complete!

Bad news:
- Fitch Downgrades Six Flags IDR to 'C'; Negative Watch (May,22)
  - Negative Rating Outlook by Moody’s (May, 15)

I’m a bit concerned about SIX breaking down its EMA-50, that would put this chart pattern in danger. We’re not changing the trading plan yet, but we’ll probably set a stop level soon.

Trading Plan:
HOLD SIX

Update:

Like I’ve mentioned in the last update, I’m a bit concerned about SIX technical developments, this technical layout is a valid turnaround scenario, but still in need of confirmation.
Its really important from a technical overview that SIX go ahead and test its $2.40 resistance quickly, otherwise it may just be trading in range (and this current level being just half of that range).

It’s a though call, but I except the EMA-50 to work as a support in a bullish scenario, the EMA-50 was actually the low of the day last Friday (which is a good first signal), but if SIX breaks down this level it’s too dangerous to stay in… So I’m setting an aggressive stop level on this one just 7 ticks below the EMA-50.

The new trading plan:

Trading Plan:
HOLD SIX with a stop @ $1.85

SIX stopped @ $1.85

Traders are changed (in my opinion David was the best), the techniques have changed, the approach is changed and so the strategy and so the names of the portfolios....but the result continue to be extremely disapppointing...now the Main is down 30% in 5 monhts or so...I mean,  T H I R T Y percent...!!

mah...I don't quite think you can pick up the performance stopping out the investments...suggest the subscriber to go in cash and stay on the sideline if you do not feel anymore how to invest or trade in this market.

I believe stocks like SIX were David's picks and were loosely managed by him in anticipation of big gains in the far future. Now that Ramsburg and Aussie trade in these portfolios, they have to do something with these picks that they did not make. It's hard to follow someone's logic, so I think it is wise to protect the portfolios with stops of some kind.

The goal for each trade is to make money. A stock is always purchased in anticipation of its appreciation. If instead a negative trend develops, then weighing in the general market sentiment, the stock can be sold. If you buy shoes and find later they don't fit, you take them back to the store, right? Same thing here, a stock does not perform as expected, get rid of it.

  On one note I agree, we will have to see how the new strategies will work for us. I am in a disastrous loss this year myself since I've been following closely...

  Rams and Aussie, cheer up lads, make us some dough! C'mon now! :-)

I was too busy to post these days although I read all the messages.
Berloga made accurate comments with which I agree, but would like to add that
the current management cannot be held directly responsible for previous losses
and they are now making the necessary writeoffs.
We all know markets are extermely difficult now days, but moreover everyone has to
make their own evaluation respect of the suggestions we receive.
A good bunch of people all over the world are participating in 3SOF and the best we can
do is help each other get on their feet again.
I realize a 30% YTD loss is unacceptable but the Speculative acheived 5.8% profit and the
S&P so far is -9%.  In other words I trust the new policy with stop losses and targets,
because what got this portfolio in trouble was a lack of those limits. 
My previous long silence was due to a strict respect of the management decisions which
I did not approve but accepted and kept paying the membership because I appreciate
everybodies  work and best judgement. 
My proposal is to look forward and dont feel obliged to make new picks if this market is
not helping to make profits and dont fall in love with stocks, sell even with smal gains
and never feel sorry if you could have had better yields particularly in this terrible market, because it is definetely better to have low profits than big losses waiting for a stock to recover.

I'm not perfect I also made frequent mistakes, but the biggest this year was with ASTI when it quoted
over 27 and waited to get higher.

Best luck and regards to Rams & Aussie. Keep the hard work, it will pay good dividends in due time

Quote from: jorgegr on June 11, 2008, 08:43:11 PM

Best luck and regards to Rams & Aussie. Keep the hard work, it will pay good dividends in due time

Where is David Randolph, is he in vacation or something?