3SOF

link to Apple rumor:
http://www.palluxo.com/2008/04/25/leaked-apple-to-licence-haptic-technology-for-iphone/

MMR: Volume Spike; 165% > 20-adsv, Stock +18.95%
Friday , April 25, 2008 16:49ET

This is the 1st VOLUME alert for IMMR in the past 7 calendar days.

Trading for Immersion Corporation (NASDAQ NM: IMMR) has been heavier than usual in today's session. By 16:45 ET, the stock had already traded 1,406,282 shares via 4,553 trades. The cumulative volume is 164.80% above its 20-day average of 531,075. Normally the stock experiences around 2,545 individual trades per session.

So far, today's volume surge has caused a net rise in IMMR's stock price. At the time of this alert, the stock was trading at $9.980, up $1.590 (+18.95%).

One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $10.620. The price has declined more than 6 percent since then.

Over the last 10 trading session IMMR has traded in a range between $7.290 and $8.700 and is currently trading 51.74% below its 52-week high of $20.680 set on July 13,2007 and 55.21% above its 52-week low of $6.430 from April 04,2008.

In the previous 3 sessions, IMMR trading has displayed a mixed trend. Closing results have been as follows:

April 24, 2008 --- closed at $8.390 down $0.100 (-1.18%) on 352,900 shares
April 23, 2008 --- closed at $8.490 up $0.020 (+0.24%) on 235,200 shares
April 22, 2008 --- closed at $8.470 down $0.030 (-0.35%) on 298,600 shares

Hi Rmagos, I have to say that I was coming ready to dump my full position at today's open, because I thought the huge rally on Friday was due to the following news:

Immersion Appoints Clent Richardson President and CEO
Business Wire (Thu, Apr 24)

But because Clent Richardson worked at Apple and due to meetings between the two companies, this has sparked the following rumor:

LEAKED: Apple to Licence Haptic Technology for iPhone

Thanks for posting this link soxguy and la-onda

I'm happy for the ones here still holding their full position, but I also feel sad that I'm never lucky. This super cold hand is getting icy.

Well, I guess that with this rumor out we'll have "buy the rumor" for a few days and then hopefully "sell the news" at a higher price ... say, around the 200 days SMA, currently at $12.47?

I'll hold this half of IMMR a while longer.

The aapl story  is getting around.$11 premarket.

Some good news... if the agreement between APPLE and IMMERSION is to became true

Apple places order for 24-25 million 3G iPhones, according to report - AppleInsider

AppleInsider reports long-time iPod manufacturer and current iPhone builder Foxconn Electronics has been selected by Apple to assemble the company's upcoming 3G iPhone handset, with volume shipments expected to begin this June, says a new report out of the Far East. Citing sources at component suppliers as well as foreign institutional investors, the Chinese-language Commercial Times reports that the Taipei-based manufacturer was recently instructed by Apple to begin procuring component materials for the next-generation touch-screen handsets for an initial test build no later than the end of May. Shipments of the 3G iPhone are expected to top three million units in June with the model likely to ship a total of 24-25 million units throughout its life-cycle, the paper added

Quote from: soxguy on April 28, 2008, 08:27:37 AM
The aapl story  is getting around.$11 premarket.

I should have sold yesterday at the open.

Quote from: Rmagos on April 28, 2008, 12:47:47 PM
Some good news... if the agreement between APPLE and IMMERSION is to became true

Apple places order for 24-25 million 3G iPhones, according to report - AppleInsider

AppleInsider reports long-time iPod manufacturer and current iPhone builder Foxconn Electronics has been selected by Apple to assemble the company's upcoming 3G iPhone handset, with volume shipments expected to begin this June, says a new report out of the Far East. Citing sources at component suppliers as well as foreign institutional investors, the Chinese-language Commercial Times reports that the Taipei-based manufacturer was recently instructed by Apple to begin procuring component materials for the next-generation touch-screen handsets for an initial test build no later than the end of May. Shipments of the 3G iPhone are expected to top three million units in June with the model likely to ship a total of 24-25 million units throughout its life-cycle, the paper added

Yes, but here's the problem. Even if this rumor becomes reality (I guess that's probable, where there's smoke usually there's fire), it may not be material.

Here's why: Nokia sells 450 million mobile phones a year, which is 18 times more than the numbers you're providing for AAPL's iPhone. And yet, IMMR is down roughly 50% since the Nokia news came out.

I didn't know how much revenue would IMMR collect from each mobile phone, but I figured $1 (due to the settlement with Sony). It was a shock to know that actually it is just $0.05, or 20 times less. Let's say that AAPL, because it sells much lower volumes than Nokia, buys a license from IMMR for, say, $0.08 per iPhone (as Samsung and LG did). Your 24.5 million units would represent just about $2 M a year in revenue for IMMR.

The market cap rose $60 M on a rumor of a potential deal which can bring $2 M a year in revenue.

The fact that IMMR sells its licenses for such a low price completely changes the long term investment story. I'm not saying that it won't go up, but my reason for buying was severely impaired.

I'm going to switch IMMR for another similar company but with more revenues, more visibility and apparently more long term value: AUTH.

The trading plan for IMMR is SELL.

With today's 15% run I am Finally back in the green on IMMR, up 4%.  Now comes the hard part, knowing when to sell since David's portfolio already has.  Good trading and health to all.

poli

Big run-up last week and another today.  What's happening?

Quote from: poli on April 30, 2008, 01:26:34 PM
With today's 15% run I am Finally back in the green on IMMR, up 4%.  Now comes the hard part, knowing when to sell since David's portfolio already has.  Good trading and health to all.

poli

I'm happy that you're making a little money in IMMR poli

Quote from: Chainthroer on April 30, 2008, 02:37:03 PM
Big run-up last week and another today.  What's happening?

I guess the move has two main motivations:

1 - IMMR's 1st quarter results will be released tomorrow after the close;
2 - There's this AAPL rumor that everybody is talking about and probably people are buying ahead of the potential news.

My sense of short term timing was weak as I failed to understand that, despite the potential news not being materially all that relevant (certainly not as much as the change in market cap), "buy the rumor" would push the stock higher nonetheless.

$12 is an important resistance from a technical standpoint.

I hope this helps ... good luck!

Ouch, bad results out from IMMR:

• Immersion Corporation Reports First Quarter 2008 Financial Results
Business Wire (Thu 4:05pm)

Revs down 17% sequentially and a return to losses. Unless management confirms the selling of a license to Apple over the conference call (which I don't think would be materially relevant), the stock will probably be down big time tomorrow.

The Main lost a good deal with IMMR, but I think that most people following the story learned a valuable lesson for the future, which is:

- Be in possession of all the material information or be in disadvantage to other players and ultimately, pay for it.

Anyone still in? I am. Up today.

Quote from: soxguy on May 08, 2008, 12:15:30 PM
Anyone still in? I am. Up today.

Good to know, but why?

Are you holding because:

1 - You're still losing and don't want to sell at a loss
2 - Volume has remained high and the stock didn't react all that bad to the revenue and earnings miss reported in Q1 2008
3 - You're expecting news of an AAPL/IMMR licensing deal before selling
4 - You're a long term investor and still see lots of upside in IMMR's value, despite the company selling its mobile licenses for $0.05 per mobile phone (instead of the $1 per phone I initially thought)
5 - All of the above
6 - None of the above

Thanks for your help soxguy, after seeing what you've done with SYX and TBSI I just want to learn.

By the way, after the earnings release, one of the analysts following the stock published a comprehensive report which I'll attach. He explains why an AAPL/IMMR licensing deal would probably be worth about $2 per IMMR share over the long term. He also gives some highlights on the conference call (for example, there was a new design win in the automotive sector - and IMMR is about to collect $3 - $5 for each car sold using its technology, which can be bigger than the mobile market - maybe this is part of your reasoning?)

Just leaving the report and updated chart, good luck

After being in this all this time,I want to see where this goes.I'm fuzzy when it comes to figuring the risk/reward angle. Let's just say there are a lot of possibilities,not just from phones. I don't have my life savings sunk into this one,so what ever happens,good or bad,won't be earth shattering. Why is it rising since earnings? I don't have a clue. Stay tuned.

I'm still in, my case wd be yr point 5 and because their tecnology should extend to other fields

I'm still in IMMR & SYX,  should not have sold TBSI on 4/25.  I expect higher price's on both,  but still expect the overall market to go down a couple more weeks.  We will see in the fullness of time. To all good trading and health.

poli

Hope this time it can hold and maybe continue the rally
Happy Easter

HectorGR