3SOF

Quote from: Ares on September 09, 2008, 08:51:54 AM
Update:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 23.57, open
#20 at 22.46, open ( my wife wants to hold this longer)
#21 at 21.85, Sold at 24.89

SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open
#3 at 118.34, open

My wife wants to hold the UYG position at 22.46 longer.
I told her that if she holds on it too long - I'll short it (by buying SKF) 

She gave me a frown. 

I told her that I may be wrong though and she may be right.

If I'm wrong, she makes money.
If I'm right, I make money.

So far it seems like a win/win situation.

I suggested that she may wanna look after the analyis for the entry/exit of UYG so that I can concentrate more on SKF.

I have a feeling, I'll still end up trying to analyze both. 

Anyway, let's see how it goes.

I did end up "shorting" UYG (by buying SKF) - twice. 
UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 23.57, open
#20 at 22.46, open ( my wife wants to hold this longer)


SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open
#3 at 118.34, open
#4a at 103.65, sold at 106.69
#4b at 107.70, sold at 111.02

Looks like I sold SKF to soon again - at least at a profit.

I wonder if SKF will try to go back above the 200sma tommorow.

Here's my annotation of SKF's daily chart:

jeg

I noticed the list of 21 uyg and 3 skf trades - are the prices quoted your entry prices, and are the ones that say "open" still open ?

also - thinking last night about your strategy of getting in and out of both skf and uyg: I noticed that both of these have 20 and 50 sma lines (say on the daily chart) that are pretty close to each other, not too far away.  Do you use this fact and assume that the range of movement of both of these etfs is going to generally be in the area around their 20 and 50?  For example, the skf closing price from yesterday is 114.59, and its 20 sma is a little above it at about 121.  So would you figure that within the near future that the price will touch the 20 sma (ie price target of 121)?  This may not be a day trade, could take a few or several days to reach 121 in this example.

You have some good stuff on here, I can definitely learn some stuff.

thx for any info

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 23.57, open
#20 at 22.46, open ( my wife wants to hold this longer)
#21 at 20.88, sold at 21.48

SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open
#3 at 118.34, open
#4a at 112.86, sold at 117.07
#4b at 115.25, sold at 118.38
#4 at 113.49, open

Attached is a 5 minute chart of SKF.

This is what I was mainly looking at (along with the other timeframes).

I wonder how long it will continue its uptrend.

Quote from: mdszj on September 10, 2008, 07:33:44 AM
jeg

I noticed the list of 21 uyg and 3 skf trades - are the prices quoted your entry prices, and are the ones that say "open" still open ?

also - thinking last night about your strategy of getting in and out of both skf and uyg: I noticed that both of these have 20 and 50 sma lines (say on the daily chart) that are pretty close to each other, not too far away.  Do you use this fact and assume that the range of movement of both of these etfs is going to generally be in the area around their 20 and 50?  For example, the skf closing price from yesterday is 114.59, and its 20 sma is a little above it at about 121.  So would you figure that within the near future that the price will touch the 20 sma (ie price target of 121)?  This may not be a day trade, could take a few or several days to reach 121 in this example.

You have some good stuff on here, I can definitely learn some stuff.

thx for any info

mdszj,

Yes. Those are my entries and the ones that say open are still open.

I made a mistake of averaging up on UYG (while averaging SKF down) without selling much of my position on UYG at a profit - I hope I've improved since then. 

When UYG started going down, I started to liquidate my SKF positions on strength (while it was going up).

If you read back on my journal, I've gone through one round of averaging down on SKF and exiting everything at a profit.

Now, I'm on my second or third round (I think) of selling SKF into strength (that's if it breaks back up above the pink daily upsloping trendline). I'll have to read back myself to check. lol

With regards to the 50 sma and the 200 sma:

I watch this for a golden cross/dead cross signal
I also use it to observe for support/resistance.

I generally use the linear regression to gauge the trading range.

Attached is SKF's daily chart:

So far, the 5 minute chart seems strong but I'm still thinking that SKF may go for the Wolfewave (from my perspective) target #6.

SKF closed below the 200sma and still below the pink upsloping trendline.

I may be wrong on my analysis of SKF - thus I trade both sides (by going long UYG instead of shorting SKF).

gl

jeg/ares

how goes?  quick question: when you say golden cross, this refers to when the 50 sma goes over the 200 sma, correct?  And a death cross is the reverse?  Also not sure if you saw my yahoo message to you today: what is the length of time you generally use when developing your daily linear regression trendlines?

Looks like you did well today.  I have 2 open positions of uyg, hoping to close them at target prices tomorrow.  I think one target is 21.75 (should hit no problem) and the other is about 23.18 - looking for $1 on each position hopefully.  I should really set targets in terms of resistance rather than arbitrary goals like $1 - maybe I will try to develop better targets tomorrow.

later mdszj

Quote from: mdszj on September 11, 2008, 10:15:21 PM
jeg/ares

how goes?  quick question: when you say golden cross, this refers to when the 50 sma goes over the 200 sma, correct?  And a death cross is the reverse?  Also not sure if you saw my yahoo message to you today: what is the length of time you generally use when developing your daily linear regression trendlines?

Looks like you did well today.  I have 2 open positions of uyg, hoping to close them at target prices tomorrow.  I think one target is 21.75 (should hit no problem) and the other is about 23.18 - looking for $1 on each position hopefully.  I should really set targets in terms of resistance rather than arbitrary goals like $1 - maybe I will try to develop better targets tomorrow.

later mdszj

mdszj,

Yes. The golden cross is a positive cross over of the 50 sma (from below the 200sma) going up above the the 200sma.

The dead cross is the reverse.

Thanks for the compliment - just got lucky.

gl on your open positions.

Your 21.75 target was met during post market yesterday.

" Excellent calls Jig.

How and what do you base these entry and exit points for UYG.

I would appreciate your feedback. TIA.

You can send directly email to me also at [email protected]  "

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Leoluv,

I see that you are the latest member to join 3SOF.
Welcome here.

Attached are the 4 timeframes I generally look at:

The daily chart
The hourly chart
The 5 minute chart
and the 1 minute chart

I try to get a confluence from those timeframes + my gut feeling.

I also have two other charts ( 5 minute and 1 minute) I look at with different settings (  Bollinger bands, macd, slow stochastics).

Ideal entry:

Stock tanking
expanded bollinger bands
pierce outside an expanded bollinger band
decreasing red 5 minute volume
Sudden increase of volume (while price is piercing an expanded bollinger band).
Rapid red prints on the time and sales

I normally click buy when the red prints on the  time and sales slows down.

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Variations:

1) wait for a 1 minute higher high as time and sales slow down

2) Feed of the 5 minute chart by:
a) Waiting for a 5 minute higer high
b) let the 1 minute chart pull back (after the 5 minute higher high)
c) wait for a 1 minute higher high
d) place a bid at the previous 1 minute high

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Having said that, there are still a lot of times I end up buying outside those parameters. lol

Anyway, I hope you've picked my brain enough already.

( There are still lots that need tweaking in there). lol

" jeg

Was just on your site but could not find what settings you use for your linear regression channel. I believe you mentioned it is based on a daily chart but I was not sure if it was a year long regression channel. Is that what you set it at?

Here is a site where you can vary the time setting for the linear reg. channel, fyi.

http://139.142.147.19/StockChart_ImageOn... "

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mdszj,

Thanks for the link.

For the daily chart I use 1 year
sometimes
I look at the 20 year/daily settings for the linear regression.

I set it at 50% and 100%

I find the TOS (Think or Swim) charts to be very helpful for that.

" It seems Jegejig totally controll UYG/SKF. Good call for your 21.3 sell order "

Thanx for the nice words brenda.

I wish I did have control.

Who knows - if enough traders buy where I buy and sell where I sell - I may end up being the support and resistance - lol

If they do try to follow me - they have to be quick (wink).

By the time I post my entries - the market may have move already.

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 23.57, open
#20 at 22.46, open ( my wife wants me to try and sell this now, lol)
#21 at 19.56, sold at 20.70
#21a at 20.30, sold at 21.30


SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open
#3 at 118.34, sold at 122.67
#4 at 113.49, sold at 123
New #3 at 120.25, open


UYG daily chart attached:

What if:

1) A majority of traders were looking at the same timeframe?

2) Traders were using the same tools?

3) There was a reliable/consistent entry/exit point?

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1)

After a few years of trading, I may have finally found my trading style.

I enjoy SCALPING.

With this trading style, I will MAINLY be using the 1 minute chart.

I will be using the 5 minute and hourly charts for "back up"/possible confluence points (since these timeframes include pre and post market data).

Every now and then, I will be looking at the daily chart to get an idea on what investors/traders that don't have after hour info sees.

2)

I will MAINLY be looking at a TOS (Think or Swim) chart with these settings:

1 day/1 minute

Linear regression at 50% and 100%

3)

Lately, after I post my buy/sell order - I had a tendency to change it (fear of missing out).

Starting on monday, once I post my buy/sell orders, I will try my best not to change it.

I understand that there will be front runners but if I stand my ground...

Maybe just maybe - it will be viewed as a consistent post.

There is strength in numbers.

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Those that have read my journals and my posts know that I am not a big trader.

I am the bread winner for the family working as a transit operator with 1 wife and 3 kids.

( We decided for my wife to stay home [instead of working outside] so that there is at least 1 parent to look after the kids - hoping to give the kids quality parenting).

I also recently changed my days off to Saturday and Sunday (from weekdays off) - which my sons really enjoy.

My 8 year old son looks forward on us (me and him) SKATE BOARDING. (My wife and Eldest son tease me and tells me that I may be going thorugh midlife crisis, lol).

Just a thought:

If enough "small time traders" buy/sell at the same price - it may become support and resistance.

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Just as haiku's comment yesterday comparing price movement to a squirrel crossing the road.

I would like to conduct an experiment on monday.

I will alternate between UYG and SKF ( hedging each other).

I will also try to post my entries ahead of time.

For those that have TOS, it would be easy for them to " paper trade " along with my trades.

For those using real money - please do your own due dilligence.

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Here is my guideline for stock price and # of shares used:

$200.01 and higher = 5 shares

$200 to $100.01 = 10 shares

$100 to $40.01 = 20 shares

$40 to $20.01 = 50 shares

$20 to $10.01 = 100 shares

$10 to $5.01 = 200 shares

$5 to $1.01 = 400 shares

$1 to $0.01 = 2000 shares

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 23.57, open
#20 at 22.46, open ( my wife wants me to try and sell this now, lol)
#21 at 20.60, sold at 21.05 ( made a mistake of not letting it run higher though).
#21 at 21.04, open (ended up buying back)


SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open
#3 at 120.25, open
#4 at 114.64, open
#5 at 111.54, sold at 114.03
#5 at 111.64, open

UYG battlescreen for monday:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 23.57, open
#20 at 22.46, open ( my wife wants me to try and sell this now, lol)
#21 at 21.04, open
#22 at 19.01, sold at 19.26
#22 at 19.13, open (ended up buying back at a higher price)

SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open
#3 at 120.25, sold at 127.49
#4 at 114.64, sold at 123.52
#5 at 111.64, sold at 120.84

Only 2 SKF left.

Will I be starting another round soon?

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=16264&mid=16264&tof=75&frt=2#16264

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=16402&mid=16402&tof=31&frt=2#16402

Attached is today's battle screen: