3SOF

Here's my annotation on the hourly chart of UYG:

UYG may have just hit a wolfewave target #6 (blue line).

Will it pullback first (towards the green rtl)?

Will it continue upwards (surpass the target line #6)?

We'll have to wait and see how the market reacts.

hey jeg

Hopefully we are at or near the bottom for uyg right now - around the 16 - 16.5 box on the pnf.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=uyg,PLUADANRBO[PA!B20!B50][D][F1!3!0.5!!2!20]&pref=G

If we are in for more punishment tomorrow, I am wondering if UYG could go all the way down to about 14.5.

I hope not because I am holding UYG!

My prediction for SKF is up to 121 before it starts to reverse:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=skf,PLUADANRBO[PA!B20!B50][D][F1!3!0.5!!2!20]&pref=G


Good luck - it looked like you are doing real good lately with intraday trades for small (<$1 trades) as well as some nice SKF trades.

Quote from: mdszj on September 29, 2008, 07:17:19 PM
hey jeg

Hopefully we are at or near the bottom for uyg right now - around the 16 - 16.5 box on the pnf.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=uyg,PLUADANRBO[PA!B20!B50][D][F1!3!0.5!!2!20]&pref=G

If we are in for more punishment tomorrow, I am wondering if UYG could go all the way down to about 14.5.

I hope not because I am holding UYG!

My prediction for SKF is up to 121 before it starts to reverse:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=skf,PLUADANRBO[PA!B20!B50][D][F1!3!0.5!!2!20]&pref=G


Good luck - it looked like you are doing real good lately with intraday trades for small (<$1 trades) as well as some nice SKF trades.

Ty for your nice comments.

I hope you are doing well too. 

I really appreciate you taking the time to post, it gives me a better idea on support and resistances.

Attached is an hourly chart of UYG:

Looks like UYG did use the blue line as resistance.
It broke below the green uptrending line and yellow horizontal line.
It also looks like it is coming out (bouncing off) the 3rd wave of a descending channel.

It feels like my trading is moving up to third gear.

I may not be posting much intraday entries and exits anymore.

I don't think a lot of traders would really like to see 50 or more trades posted in a day. 

Another thing, I think it will be hard for them to follow my intraday trades ( By the time I post a long entry position - I may be out already).

Good luck and happy trading.

Hourly UYG chart:

Fanned out the green uptrending line.
Price has not touched the ltl of a descending channel (possible wave 4).

I hope a symmetrical triangle forms (red descending trend line with the green uptredning trendline)  instead of a bear flag (red descending channel with small [minor] green uptrending channel).

I still want UYG to be at least $27 by October 2, 2008 ( although we don't always get what we want).

Catalyst:

Senate vote

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=22334&mid=22334&tof=19&frt=2#22334

Possible liquidity from China if US pass the bailout plan

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=21967&mid=21967&tof=29&frt=2#21967

Note:

Those links are comments from the UYG yahoo message board.
I'll try to find another relevant link.

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Banking’s crisis of confidence deepens
By Krishna Guha, Harvey Morris and James Politi in Washington and Paul J Davies in London

Published: September 30 2008 20:10 | Last updated: October 1 2008 02:54

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/17ce4468-8f22-11dd-946c-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1

Senate passed the bailout with SEC extending the short ban.

What is the message here?
How would the market interpret this?

Here's UYG's daily chart:

A green candle closing above the previous day's doji and above the descending trendline.

Here's UYG's "building" based on yesterday's candle:

26.004
24.444
22.884 ( near the hourly 100% linear regression line currently at 22.84)
21.324
19.764
18.800 high
18.24 pivot
17.83592 (near the mid linear regression line currently at 17.74)
17.24 low
16.27592
14.71592
13.15592
11.59592
10.03592

Attached is an hourly chart of UYG:

Price went above the red descending trendline
It looks like price is already working on the 5th wave on the minor green uptrending channel.

Will this gap up and create a volatility expansion?

We'll have to wait and see.

UYG hourly chart:

Can this be considered being above (a breakout) the symmetrical triangle yet?

Here's the "buildings" for today:

UYG "building"

26.990
25.210
23.430
21.650
19.870
18.77 High
17.67 Pivot
17.66996
16.99 Low
15.88996
14.10996
12.32996
10.54996
8.76996

-----------------------------------------------

SKF "building"

137.850
130.520
123.190
115.860
108.530
104.000 High
100.89 Pivot
99.47006
96.67 Low
92.14006
84.81006
77.48006
70.15006
62.82006

It feels like the 5 and 15 minute opening tipped us of on UYG's trend for day yesterday - again.

Earlier in the day, there was a 5 and 15 minute breakdown on UYG.

We were speculating (and hoping) that the trend will change (upwards) if the vote (on the bail out bill) gets approved.

The bill was passed, then what happened?

UYG tanked!

What other reasons came up for the tankage?

1) Job numbers
2) Sell the news
3),4)...

Bottom line, the 5 and 15 minute range tip off prevailed again.

Here's my opinion:

I feel that the market maker's/institutions wants to liquidate their short positions first before letting UYG go up.

In my case, I just wanna get rid of the 2 long positions I have left in SKF.

I may be wrong and my mind may change again on monday (and add up more long positions on SKF).

I wonder how many more times the 5 and 15 minute opening range tip off will be correct again next week.

We shall see.

Attached is UYG's hourly chart:

From the SKF board by Daneric40:

Been running Fib numbers - Very scary      3-Oct-08 09:15 pm     I read an awful lot of whats going on in the credit amrkets, in the derivatives markets, etc. Its a scary time right now for those in halfway in the know. Thats whats great about this board. You guys GET IT. I have some ponderings I'd like to share:

1.) I am disturbed by the "routine" size of the daily moves. They seem to be getting even larger. This is very significant because we are talking about the 500 largest stocks and historic and not to be ignored.

2.) We are in an intermediate 3rd wave down that began at the SPX 1440 peak in May. This is a multi-month move down. For example, it took teh NASDAQ 14 months to complete its wave 3 down in 2000-2001.

3.) The SPX however is the LARGEST 500 stocks. And they are all getting simply devasted. From a fundamental perspective will there be ANY portion of the economy that does not get devasted in this financial/economic storm heading our way? Waves move first then fundamentals will follow. Don't worry, the bad news will keep rolling out every day 9until we hit a bear rally then it will be ignored)

4.) What am I getting at? I think I originally imagined an orderly decline with orderly daily moves with an orderly time frame. That is obviously out of the window. I think the market is signalling a catastrophic type event. We already had a HUGE down day a few Mondays past and it is LIKELY we will experience a MUCH greater downward move to come.

5.) We are at the point in the wave structure where this move will likely reside. We are still firmly in a 3rd of a 3rd wave of a 3rd wave down. The "advantage" of having 2 waves of a smaller degree converging at the same time within a larger is that you can take the start point of each and calculate expected wave 3 moves using Fibonnaci expansion ratios. The KEY is if your calculations for each one "matches up". When you run an extension table for each wave and then compare the 2 if you have any numbers that converge, you have a powerful estimate of where you are likley heading.

6.) I have run calculations on each wave 3 start point: 1313 (August), 1265 (Sep). Those are the start points for each subwave 3. Since you also know the length of move of each reference wave 1, you can get an accurate estimate of the total moves of both.

7.) A 1:1.618 expansion ratio is a typical move in a strong market for wave 3's. They are the most powerful and most likely to extend beyond a 1:1 ratio.

8.) The 1:1.618 expansion for wave 3 starting in Sep (1265 start point) is 974 SPX target. The wave 5 taregt would then be 925.

9.) The 1:1.618 ratio expansion for wave 3 starting in Aug (1313 start point), is 925.

10.) 925 is the VERY SPOT where support resides for the SPX if it broke through its 2004 support bands (which it is testing now). This support comes from 2002 peak points in the SPX market.

11.) We are due for a major bottom later in October. Approx Oct 20-24th.

12.) My conclusion is this: We may VERY WELL HAVE A meltdown these next 2 weeks of historic proportion. The large daily moves coupled with likely FIB ratios + collapsing credit markets + no bullets left for FED + no support left in the SPX = 925 LOW, Oct 21st.

Yes SPX 925, and not next year, not next month, but in 2-3 weeks time. At the very least sub 1000.

Then we have a nice rally from that as that will end the 3rd of the 3rd's....(but not the May starting 3rd)

I will post a chart this weekend supporting this hyposthesis. Rating :
(13 Ratings)


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Here's a link to my post on the UYG board:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=23706&mid=23706&tof=1&frt=2#23706

31.54 is +5.618 of friday's candle

28.74 is +4.618 of friday's candle

25.94 is +3.618 of friday's candle

23.14 is +2.618 of friday's candle

20.34 is +1.618 of friday's candle

18.61 is friday's high

16.88 is 0.618 of friday's candle

16.79 is Pivot

15.81 is friday's low

14.50 is the hourly swing low

14.08 is the -1.618 of friday's candle and the all time low

12.10 is currently the hourly low 100% linear regression line ( which fluctuates as time progresses).

11.28 is the - 2.618

9.02 is the current low 50% daily linear regression line
( which fluctuates as time progresses).

8.48 is the -3.618 of friday's candle.

5.68 is the -4.618 of friday's candle

3.34 is the current daily low 100% linear regression line.

2.88 is the -4.618 of friday's candle

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Above is one of my posts at the yahoo UYG message board that got a 1 star rating.

Is it really awful/unrelated to "UYG" or is someone deliberately manipulating what other readers will see (by giving it a 1 star rating, a post is automatically hidden unless a reader set the "only show topics rated at least" to 1 star + unrated?

Censorship?

Is it because I'm giving away too many "big boy" secrets?

I thought the rumour of manipulation is only for stocks.

I guess it trickles down all over the place.

Here are my posts that got 1 star rating:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=23907&mid=23907&tof=38&frt=1#23907

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=23850&mid=23850&tof=40&frt=1#23850

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=23726&mid=23726&tof=83&frt=1#23726

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=57417&tid=23706&mid=23706&tof=89&frt=1#23706

SKF "building"

437.119
386.934
336.749
286.564
236.379
205.365       High
172.85         Pivot
174.35067
155.18         Low
124.16567
73.98067
23.79567
-26.38933
-76.57433


Would this be a dark  cloud cover on SKF?

21.47
18.95
16.43
13.91
11.39
9.83    High
8.87    Pivot
8.27
7.31   Low
5.75
3.23
0.71
-1.81
-4.33


Should those doji's be disregarded (as first up day) and the last candle considered as the first up day?

UYG's "building"

18.79
17.18
15.57
13.96
12.35
11.36 High
10.67 Pivot
10.37
9.75 Low
8.76
7.15
5.54
3.93
2.32

SKF's "building"

300.25
268.70
237.15
205.60
174.05
154.55  High
133.79  Pivot
135.05
123.00  Low
103.50
71.95
40.40
8.85
-22.70

SKF "building"

207.85
189.66
171.47
153.28
135.09
123.85 High
114.52 Pivot
112.61
105.66 Low
94.42
76.23
58.04
39.85
21.66

SKF closed below the 200 and 50 sma with increasing red volume.

Is this a double top?

What's the significance of the price/volume divergence (blue lines)?

Yellow support/resistance lines near the +1.618 and -1.618 of the previous day's candle ( a doji).