3SOF

I'm buying a truck load if it goes back down around $10 today. I've regretted not adding earlier. This is the safest equity out there.

Got back again at below 11

and Got out near 12.

Sorry folks just daytrading

applaud for david's trading plan!  perfectly anticipated the drop.
applaud for stocky for a perfect daytrade! man ur good at the entry and exit, seen u pull off quite a few of these. 
oh well i missed both of the above plays .  but i am glad to see this great rebound in such a short time. lots of demand. bullish!
the drop this AM was probably due to the very disapointing earning report of LLY, a big partner of VPHM.

let's close green ! 

 ;)VPHM: To Present At Banc of America Conference @ 10:30 ET

Friday , July 29, 2005 08:32 ET

Company representatives of Viropharma Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) will be presenting at the Banc of America Securities 2005 Specialty Pharmaceuticals Conference today. The Company's presentation is scheduled to begin at 10:30 ET.

Links:

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?p=irol-eventDetails&c=92320&eventID=1108294  

http://www.veracast.com/webcasts/bas/sp05/id72204246.cfm

Please listen carefully, I have started already to accumulate again.
2nd of August results will be awesome !!!

Chart:

I'm still holding lonnnnnnnggggggg ttttttteeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrrrmmmmm!

La-Onda, what makes you think their earnings report will be awsome? 

you have listen detailed to the call?

sum up from yahoo board:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=40493
&
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=40506

IMO Q2 results will be better than expected.
We will see on the 2nd of August

Dear Oliver,

I am also holding strong over the earnings. One of the mistakes I have done is to sell a stock in an uptrend too early. As long as the fundamentals doesn't change I am holding Viropharma until it is fairly valued.

And the fundamentals are stellar for a Biotech stock. It is traded at a PE and PEG much lower than its peers as discussed earlier. The revenue is growing strong based on a combination of price increases and inceased prescriptions:



You would normally expect the revenue to go down in Q2 and Q3 but it seems like the resistant strain of C.difficile is rapidly spreading to more and more states.

An article in General Medicine Journal Watch, June 10, 2005 states the Metronidazole is loosing potency in the treatment of C.difficle Colitis.

QuoteAlthough results from older studies confirm that metronidazole is an effective treatment for Clostridium difficile colitis, findings of newer observational reports suggest unusually high rates of treatment failure and relapse.

The article goes on to say:

QuoteAmong patients diagnosed with C. difficile colitis at a Quebec hospital, the proportion who required vancomycin after initial metronidazole was about 10% annually from 1991 through 2002. In 2003 and 2004, during a local C. difficile colitis epidemic, that number rose to 26%. Among patients treated with metronidazole alone, 60-day recurrence rates were about 20% from 1991 through 2002 and then jumped to 47% in 2003 and 2004. Risk for recurrence was particularly high (58%) among older patients (age, 65).

This is supported by sales numbers for sales of Vancocin from wholesalers to pharmacies, which indicates that quarter over quarter, growth in Vancocin sales dollars from the first quarter 2005 to the sceond quarter 2005 is 45%.

Dear Michael,
I will increase my position tomorrow.
to get the 100, I will applaud you.

Michael,
You're a good man for taking all the time and effort on VPHM. I feel as though you are our personal savior here. Applaud again.

Whats the consenus expected EPS for VPHM, and when is the earning realse time/date?

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.e8785ae647c03f405508c11eb04bd38bd6571f8436496a4157f057d82663706f

VPHM: Lazard Freres Starts @ Buy; Sets Tgt @ $15; Analyst Notes
Monday , August 01, 2005 08:23 ET

Issuer: Viropharma Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)

Analyst Firm:  Lazard Freres

Ratings Action: INITIATE

Current Rating: Buy

Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $15.00

Analyst Comments: The firm expects robust Vancocin sales trends to continue.


and

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=40733

08:24 VPHM ViroPharma started with a Buy at Lazard; tgt $15 (11.59 )

Lazard initiates VPHM with a Buy and $15 tgt. Firm expects recent robust Vancocin sales trends to continue, driving earnings growth. Also, HCV-796 for hepatitis C and Maribavir for cytomegalovirus offer potential for further upside, and they note that substantial debt reduction during Q2 has reduced balance sheet risk

Thanks Oliver! What a nice way to start a new trading day.

It is very encouraging to see that Lazard Freres wanted to make sure that their recommendation came out before the earnings.

Stocky, here are the earnings estimates from Zacks.

                            This Quarter   Next Quarter   This Year   Next Year
Average Estimate         0.10              0.07             0.47         0.51
Number of Estimates       3                  3                  3              3
Low Estimates             0.05              0.02             0.34         0.36
High Estimate              0.14              0.12             0.60         0.68
Year Ago EPS             -0.20             -0.13            -0.73         0.47
EPS Growth             148.33%         153.85%      164.84%     8.45%

They look very impressive but i think there is a good chance that the actual figures will be even better. Earnings for this quarter will be released on wednesday.

Mike

Thanks for the insightful fundamental analysis, it looks strong !.

It's interesting to observe from daily chart that the pps was actually moving sideways covering an 8 days period (22/6 - 1/7) after it reached recent high of 7.37 (21/6), then it continued its advance from 5/7 to 20/7 (made up of 12 bars and pps increased by about $ 5.63), we are seeing the same pattern with today being the 8th day of moving sideways from 20/7 high of $ 12.58, my guess is that on 2/8 the pps will resume its upward climb from current level $ 11.60 to est $ 17.23 ( 11.60+5.63) and change within 12 days more or less. Let us hope so !   
JMHO

Bought and added to it three times in the last two months. Seems to be on a mission, if any of there trials turn positive they would be ripe for a buy out.

Love this site, just sent a pay pal this am. Best money spent in a long time.