3SOF

I want to get serious about this trading plan on END. You know what, I don't need the price line, since my plan is based on indirect indicators. So, my END chart for you tonight is the following:

I know I had that beautiful trading plan on END, but as I've said several times, every individual stock play needs to primarily respect the global portfolio and global market analysis.

Since I believe China will enter a recession in the medium term future I also believe the oil bubble will pop soon rather than later. So I'll send END at today's open.

I don't think anyone will complain about me selling END, since it is near its highs.

David,

Very interesting you should mention the bursting of the oil bubble and global perspectives in your last post -- I've been pondering the same and intended to post last evening but was having DNS server problems with the web-site and couldn't post.

Anyway -- I'll spare everyone my lengthy diatribe and try and just gloss the highlights...

Given that ours is a world of rapidly advancing technologies, and given that it's an understood fact that oil will be veritably depleted by 2036, it stands to VERY GOOD reason that there are individuals/institutions working feverishly on alternative sources of energy that will make oil and its derivatives obsolete -- literally overnight.

Imagine the routing in the oil markets that will occur on the morning that Rabidmonk Enterprises ®© announces it has developed a SOLAR FUEL CELL that can be retrofitted to most common automobile drive trains -- that harnesses the perpetual free source of solar power. Someone will develop it, it will happen, and then the only way to sell OIL stocks will be by using the old "at market" button as they plunge in free fall.

Another thing... Arab interests know they have limited time to milk their primary customers (USA, UK, CHINA) before technology takes them and their overpriced product out of the loop. What will they sell then??  That is a question everyone should be asking themselves, in addition to the question: "What will all those Arab countries do when they are no longer a global player because they have lost the leverage of oil?"  Perhaps at this point you may be smelling a rat and wondering if Osama isn't just an errand boy for a "larger" interest, whose motive is to gradually weeken us (and the rest of the world) prior to the oil leverage over us being lost. It isn't so much an issue over "religion" as it is an issue over POWER. I grant you that the Arab nations will NOT want to be destitute paupers when oil is no longer a controlling fulcrum for them. An underhanded war has already begun and we are the enemy's best customer.

Anyway, I shan't digress further, as large scale political motives aren't the thrust of your forums, but I do take those things into consideration as part of my TA, so maybe I can squeak by on this one and won't get slapped on the wrists by you guys... 

As to the PPS and TA of END -- it indeed looks like my timing may have been off by about one week on the arrival of the spike. If it runs hard, hot, and heavy today and tomorrow, it's just possible to see 5.30 out of it now. I'm thinking that if that spike happens on Friday and closes at the high of the day on Friday, it just might be over for this one. Then again, when you dump those 250,000 shares you're holding this morning it might put the brakes on it immediately!! 

Regards,  Rabidmonk

It appears that the "spike" I was watching for finally made it home... are my charts lying by showing an open of 5.58 this morning?

Is it possible to see a close of at least 5.64 or 5.65 today?

That would complete my vision for a true exhaustion spike. What is very strange is that I am monitoring various momentum overlays, and as the price is rising, they are falling like stones. NOT GOOD in my book. The same is true for various Fisher Transforms... suffice it to say that the TA in short term analysis looks like tossed spaghetti today. Will it resolve to be an even stronger uptrend? I have to venture the guess of "I doubt it" The PPS (with a strong close) would be far too "outside and up" of MA Envelopes and B.Bands to sustain a push beyond tomorrows open. (IMHO) --- but hey --- it's OIL !   

I'm very curious to see how this resolves this afternoon.

Rabidmonk;
Looks like you might start using a new tool, it's called news.When a company starts drilling a well the price normally goes up a bit and stays up until you see a downward or upward spike, (early info. from rig or company personal).Although this company will show no profits from this well for a year or more,if they do find substancial oil or gas the price will increase up to 25% for at least a week or two. This is JMHO  but us news junkies try harder.
Virg

Hi Virgin,  (Hhmmmmm... a rabid monk and a virgin... NOT!!!) 

Yes, I am familiar with the powerful tool called 'news'. I've witnessed that tool implemented many times as more astute traders have used it to exit technically over-bought positions and leave the more inexperienced bulls holding the proverbial bag.

There is certainly a point where news and "company potential" help issues, but as many will testify, and as many have witnessed -- profit taking is profit taking no matter how one slices it.

Still, despite the technical disparities and anomalies I see with END, I am intrigued to monitor it and just see where it goes. Had I owned it at the end of last week and had I witnessed that gap this morning, my finger would have CRUSHED my "SELL AT MARKET" button at the open this morning.  But that's just me... I do *TRY* to buy low, sell high! 

Seriously, each stock in the market has its own personality, does it not?  I am fascinated to see which timeframe has the most power over this issue -- the long term or the short term.  Your mention of 'news' is an excellent point, as 'news' is just one of the factors in play here -- how the amalgam forms remains to be seen! Anything goes for the moment with OIL stocks... has the FAT lady sung?? 

Best of luck and trading on this one -- let's hope the market is somehow magically profitable for everyone!

Rabid 

END has started its climb back up. Insiders have been buying. Guidance is strong for future quarters. Heavy institutional support. Oil and gas keep going up. This is a gift at close to $1