3SOF

Rocket - I hope you are on top of this!

It's going to have to blow through $4.27 -$4.30 with lots of steam and soon or it's dead

IMHO

Quote from: rocket8 on August 30, 2005, 11:13:36 AM
thank you.  sold half at $4.10. 

i willl let the other half ride and see where it goes for a while.

Good job.  Applause. 

RGEN has taken out the top of the Ascending Triangle (3.95-3.97).  Volume in just the first 2+ hours already is nearly double its average daily volume, but I don't see any news to account for the rally.  Makes me wonder if somebody knows something 

I'd like to see RGEN also close above the top of the Rising Wedge, which comes in today at about 4.02, which would put the upside targets (see past charts) IN PLAY.

RGEN currently is BID...4.02...ASK...4.03.

Quotei am a student now at stockcharts.   

Quote

Thanks for that information, Daniel.

RGEN closed at 4.00, above the top of the Ascending Triangle (3.95-3.97), on more than double its average daily volume, which is good, but it ran out of steam as Rabidmonk suspected (applauded), and we're left with the annoying little problem that it failed to close above the top of the Rising Wedge.  Overall, given the general market weakness, RGEN had a good day.

The early rally to 4.18 was a DOUBLE breakout, and normally, you wouldn't sell that, you'd buy it.  It was a breakout above the Ascending Triangle and the Rising Wedge.  But, the Rising Wedge breakout didn't hold on a closing basis, and with all of the false breakouts we've had this summer and with the general market weakness, I think you made a wise move to take half off the table at 4.10, and lock in a 9%+ profit.

RGEN needs to take off to the upside almost immediately because it's developing some technical problems in this Rising Wedge.  MACD, for example, is above its signal line, but it's showing a DOUBLE negative divergence.  That means that on the last two highs in the stock, MACD has made a lower high, which is a non-confirmation of the price high. 

I listed on the chart the Rising Wedge upper trendline data points for the remainder of the week.  We'd like to see RGEN close above that.

MACD

Quote from: rocket8 on August 31, 2005, 02:13:06 AM

In addition to the products they sell RGEN owns intellectual property which is associated with:

1.  a new drug coming out from BMY for which tiny RGEN may receive royalties

Daniel,

I agree with you but want to add something also.  When BMY's product gets approval early September it will still take a while before RGEN really sees any of these royalties in their books.  But in the long run RGEN's market value will go up and so will the PPS.


Cheers

PS still long

Quote from: rocket8 on August 31, 2005, 09:29:42 AM
Melf Elf --

MacD is showing a positive signs --
"a beer on the menu" means RGEN goes up and we celebrate.  lol.

QuoteUnfortunately, I do not know understand macd yet...learning as fast as i can.  Does it mean that the 12-day price is growing slower than the 26-day price?  Perhaps meaning that growth in the price per share is slowing?

Yeah.  It's "running out of steam," as Rabidmonk put it, or running out of MOMO. 

 

Those are some difficult questions to answer, Daniel, and I suspect that there might be almost as many different answers to them as there are technical analysts. 

David would have to speak for himself on why he thought something might go up into a certain date/news event.  It might be based on an indicator, or just his opinion about what will happen, based on his past experience.  Some technical analysts study cycles, which suggest to them that a trend is up until a certain date.

Quotesometimes I think of TA as being most useful when there is no news.  is this incorrrect?

Himm-mm.... 

I haven't made a study of it, but I guess I'd have to say that when there is no news, stocks more often than not are base-building, or buliding a top, or range-bound, and that more often than not, it's the news that is the catalyst for a breakout or breakdown.  Not always, of course.   

In the case of RGEN, for example, some of the technical indicators like MACD, RSI, etc. were shaping up nicely ahead of July 27 earnings, meaning that they were looking favorable for an upside breakout (sort of "hinting at it"), but the stock was still in its year and a half long Symmetrical Triangle pattern.

Remember on July 27, when RGEN gapped a penny above the Symmetrical Triangle pattern on earnings?  That was an upside technical breakout, and it took the earnings news to show us on the chart that the stock had broken out.   

BTW, let's also be aware that, if the RGEN earnings hadn't been well-received by the market, regardless of how good we thought the earnings were, RGEN just as easily could have gapped to the downside, below the Symmetrical Triangle.  For me, a gap down below support is a "sell first...ask questions later."

Remember:  it isn't the news itself that's important, but the market's response to the news that's important.  For RGEN, it was a "Gap And Go" breakout on earnings news. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 31, 2005, 02:28:30 PM

Quotesometimes I think of TA as being most useful when there is no news.  is this incorrrect?

Daniel, TA isn't predictive.  It describes the past trend, which may or may not continue in the future. It's statistical, and based on probablilities, statistical relationships, distributions, and central tendencies.That can work for you when trends continue...

But what TA mostly can do is let you know what's in the other guy's head, maybe what trading
programs will do. Traders and programs alike use TA....they win with it and they lose with it too...



Remember:  it isn't the news itself that's important, but the market's response to the news that's important.  For RGEN, it was a "Gap And Go" breakout on earnings news. 


I concur.

Cheers

I decided to pick up some RGEN this mornin.  Great analysis on this thread(applauds).  Thx for the charting Melf.  You may be right about the g-spot but it comes after a gap so I cant tell for certain.  Thx for the news rocket.  Lets see what she's got. 

here is a 5-min study for today's action and a daily

viscious move south, i'm gonna say they were tryin to take out stops.. but I held onto my shares.  lets see if we can counterattack here 

Quote from: rocket8 on September 07, 2005, 07:03:43 PM
$3.85 has proven a solid floor.  with expectations that RGEN will one day move into the $5's this floor appears pretty solid.

I agree.  From watching the stock for a few weeks already she now seems to be channeling between $3.85 and $4 whereas it was between $3.60 and 3.90 before.
This company is profitable and has its own pipeline of promising drugs, it only needs to be valued as such.


Cheers

Maybe it's not that bad Rocket. It's now right at the bottom of trading channel. Hopefully that's enough reason for ppl to buy and push this baby back up. hopefully this ship will not sink and keep captain Rocket afloat. Salute to captian Rocket  LOL good luck with your trade.

Quote from: rocket8 on September 15, 2005, 04:33:04 PM
oh yes, lost 7% today.

i don't know TA.
-rocket8

Daniel,

Baloney.  If you didn't know any TA, you wouldn't have seen that coming.

1. When RGEN broke out above the Bearish Rising Wedge, you sold half of your position at 4.10, suspecting a false breakout (applauded).

2. You understood that there was a Double Negative Divergence in MACD at the top of the Bearish Wedge, but you decided to hold, since overall, RGEN had had a bullish breakout on July 27, and you liked the fundamentals.

3. You knew that RGEN closed at the bottom of the Bearish Wedge on Wednesday, so technically, you expected yesterday's drop on a downside break of the wedge.

You've learned alot of TA, but decided to hold the stock for fundamental reasons.  I hope you make alot of $$$ on this one.  You've worked hard on both the fundamentals and technicals, and I give you more applause for that, even though I want to give you a smite for saying that you don't know anything about TA.

Quote from: rocket8 on September 16, 2005, 10:22:07 AM

I am confused by your post.  I know what TA was told to me.  I do not have experience or knowledge in Technical Analysis.  I was not putting down TA.  Quite the opposite.  I think TA is cool and I would like to learn it. 

Sorry, Daniel, I was only kidding about giving you a smite, and I didn't think that you were putting down TA.  You know more TA than what you think you do, is all I was saying, and you're making an effort to learn more.  And, if you want to stick to the fundamentals, there's nothing wrong with that. 

Hey, it's YOUR money!   

QuoteBy the way did you forget my MACD joke? 

No, I didn't forget it.